Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1617094624514048003?s=20&t=BWDosHo6...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1617250287261024262
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarionVanR/status/1617240538628980740

[Frodo]

France does not rule out sending Leclerc tanks to Ukraine - Macron

[Virginiá]

I disagree with you about Ukraine receiving many more vehicles than they are losing.  Not a chance in hell.  This morning I saw a Ukrainian Reporter mention that the Russians made a quick advance in Zaporzhiazhia because the AFU lost too many vehicles and sent the majority that were in Cherson to the Bakhmut-Luhansk Front.  They lost thousands of vehicles in Cherson, and there's hundreds of videos to support it.  I actually have the evidence for Cherson, but, like I said, it took way too long.  
https://rumble.com/v1ugb5m-mykola-is-loosing-far-too-many-tanks-and-dead-ukrainian-soldiers-in-cherson.html
https://rumble.com/v1lmhzj-netherlands-england-and-slowenia.-the-tanks-destroyed-at-ponton-near-cherso.htmlhttps://rumble.com/v1uu2hk-destruction-of-a-v.s.u.-convoy-in-the-kherson-region.-archive..html
https://rumble.com/v1poxch-denazification-the-death-of-special-forces-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-n.html

Yeah, but I can already see the leaps being made here. How do you know how many they are losing? How do you know there were thousands lost in one region alone? What exactly was lost - hundreds of tanks? BMPs? Who is keeping this list that seems to dispute other lists, like Oryx? He and his followers visually documented at least 450 Ukrainian tank losses (total destroyed, abandoned, captured, etc) since the war began. About as many IFVs like BMPs. I've seen zero evidence that this particular person doesn't catalog Ukrainian losses just as much as Russian, so either Russians mysteriously don't take videos of Ukrainian losses despite the obvious propaganda value like Ukrainians do, or there is some secret repository of documented Ukrainian losses that dwarfs everyone else's. Obviously the visually documented losses aren't the only number, it's just a floor to work from. But I've never seen anyone who knows what they are talking about suggest the real # is literally like 4x, 5x, 8x higher.

I've come to respect the idea of relying on visually documented losses and working up from there primarily, because fog of war is a real thing and there is too much propaganda out there to just wing it. And if you're someone who has kept track of weapons and military equipment given to Ukraine, you'd have an idea of what Ukraine actually has to work with and those kinds of massive numbers being alleged don't really add up.

[Torie]

It will be an interesting read someday how all of this was coming down behind closed doors. The pretzel twisting here on an almost daily basis, and sometimes seemingly hourly, has been amazing. I wonder if Poland said it was just going to do it, whether Germany approved or not, an this was Germany's response - well we won't sue you over it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Some quotes from representatives of the German traffic light coalition that have been uttered over this weekend. Things are a bit tense between SPD and Greens/FDP.


"Our hesitation plays into the hands of the war criminal Putin, who in the meantime is preparing a new horrendous major offensive against the innocent people in Ukraine." - Agnieszka Brugger, deputy leader of the Green caucus in the Bundestag.

"On the international level we are increasingly isolated. When everybody else is running in one direction the risk is there that you are also standing alone in the end." - Marcus Faber (FDP), member of the Bundestag defence committee.

"... what members of the coalition have said with regards to the Chancellor in the last weeks is also weakening the policies of the government and also of the Bundestag. I have poined out that restraint in the choice of words is needed." - Rolf Mützenich, leader of the SPD caucus in the Bundestag.

[Hollywood]

I disagree with you about Ukraine receiving many more vehicles than they are losing.  Not a chance in hell.  This morning I saw a Ukrainian Reporter mention that the Russians made a quick advance in Zaporzhiazhia because the AFU lost too many vehicles and sent the majority that were in Cherson to the Bakhmut-Luhansk Front.  They lost thousands of vehicles in Cherson, and there's hundreds of videos to support it.  I actually have the evidence for Cherson, but, like I said, it took way too long.  
https://rumble.com/v1ugb5m-mykola-is-loosing-far-too-many-tanks-and-dead-ukrainian-soldiers-in-cherson.html
https://rumble.com/v1lmhzj-netherlands-england-and-slowenia.-the-tanks-destroyed-at-ponton-near-cherso.htmlhttps://rumble.com/v1uu2hk-destruction-of-a-v.s.u.-convoy-in-the-kherson-region.-archive..html
https://rumble.com/v1poxch-denazification-the-death-of-special-forces-of-the-armed-forces-of-ukraine-n.html

Yeah, but I can already see the leaps being made here. How do you know how many they are losing? How do you know there were thousands lost in one region alone? What exactly was lost - hundreds of tanks? BMPs? Who is keeping this list that seems to dispute other lists, like Oryx? He and his followers visually documented at least 450 Ukrainian tank losses (total destroyed, abandoned, captured, etc) since the war began. About as many IFVs like BMPs. I've seen zero evidence that this particular person doesn't catalog Ukrainian losses just as much as Russian, so either Russians mysteriously don't take videos of Ukrainian losses despite the obvious propaganda value like Ukrainians do, or there is some secret repository of documented Ukrainian losses that dwarfs everyone else's. Obviously the visually documented losses aren't the only number, it's just a floor to work from. But I've never seen anyone who knows what they are talking about suggest the real # is literally like 4x, 5x, 8x higher.

I've come to respect the idea of relying on visually documented losses and working up from there primarily, because fog of war is a real thing and there is too much propaganda out there to just wing it. And if you're someone who has kept track of weapons and military equipment given to Ukraine, you'd have an idea of what Ukraine actually has to work with and those kinds of massive numbers being alleged don't really add up.

I estimated/guessed the Ukrainian troop loss somewhere around 8-12k in Kherson, and Russia estimated 9,500-9,800 dead and wounded.  I definitely had the scoop while like 90% of the board had no idea what was happening.  Everyone was just pretending that Russians Soldiers were running into gunfire like Zombies.  After the battle ended, the NYTimes even acknowledged that Ukraine had suffered a ‘great loss’.  “The Ukrainian government does not usually disclose casualty figures, but the soldiers and commanders interviewed in the past week portrayed the battlefield losses as ‘high’ and ‘massive.’”  
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/24/world/europe/ukraine-south-kherson-russia.html

Also, if Oryx says that Ukraine only lost 450 tanks then I don’t them to give me a real count.  I saw two dozen tanks blow-up on the Kherson front in one day, and two weeks of them consistently getting smashed in those fields near Davydov Brid, Lozove, Andriivka, Novopetrivka, etc.  Like at the start of the war, Ukraine had 6,500 tanks.  How is that they only lost 7% of tanks, but they’re asking the west for hundreds and thousands?  It’s BS. Until we get good faith estimates, I’m going to try my best to find that answer on my own, because my numbers add-up more than Oryx.  However, I don't doubt his number on Russian equipment loss, because I saw that massive level of loss in the first 10 months of last year.  

[Estrella]

Tagesschau: Pistorius is also waiting for the Chancellor

I feel like Scholz is currently either alone in his office twisting himself into a moral knot thanks to his bizarre sense of deference towards Russia, or being yelled at by Plötner/Mützenich/whoever is currently the biggest Putinversteher in his orbit.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Tagesschau: Pistorius is also waiting for the Chancellor

I feel like Scholz is currently either alone in his office twisting himself into a moral knot thanks to his bizarre sense of deference towards Russia, or being yelled at by Plötner/Mützenich/whoever is currently the biggest Putinversteher in his orbit.

I don't know whether they're back already, because Scholz took his entire cabinet on a field trip to Paris. This is why Baerbock has announced that Germany wouldn't block Leopard exports to Ukraine on French television tonight. Of course, the fact that Scholz spent the day with Baerbock and Macron instead of Mützenich might have nudged him a bit in the direction of Baerbock's aforementioned statement.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1617250287261024262
https://mobile.twitter.com/MarionVanR/status/1617240538628980740

Do we ACTUALLY know Scholz is okay with that? Plenty of times Baerbock or other Green/FDP ministers have made statements like that only to be shut down by Fearless Leader.

[Virginiá]

Do we ACTUALLY know Scholz is okay with that? Plenty of times Baerbock or other Green/FDP ministers have made statements like that only to be shut down by Fearless Leader.

Honestly, at this point, I just don't even care what they say. I won't believe it until I see those tanks either in Ukraine, or on trains or trailers heading to Ukraine. I don't think Germany has done nothing - it would be criminal to say that, as they've given more aid than people know, but the way they've handled some requests (like tanks) is just the most ridiculous, politically incompetent episodes in this whole war. They are going to regret this down the road, when they find they've lost the faith and trust of some their allies and/or the people of those countries. And this doesn't even begin to touch on the real economic damage they are doing to their defense industry, who is going to lose customers left and right because the German government has signaled to allies that this country and its industries cannot be relied upon in grave circumstances.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Do we ACTUALLY know Scholz is okay with that? Plenty of times Baerbock or other Green/FDP ministers have made statements like that only to be shut down by Fearless Leader.

Honestly, at this point, I just don't even care what they say. I won't believe it until I see those tanks either in Ukraine, or on trains or trailers heading to Ukraine. I don't think Germany has done nothing - it would be criminal to say that, as they've given more aid than people know, but the way they've handled some requests (like tanks) is just the most ridiculous, politically incompetent episodes in this whole war. They are going to regret this down the road, when they find they've lost the faith and trust of some their allies and/or the people of those countries. And this doesn't even begin to touch on the real economic damage they are doing to their defense industry, who is going to lose customers left and right because the German government has signaled to allies that this country and its industries cannot be relied upon in grave circumstances.

I read somewhere that Germany's assistance to Ukraine has been a physical success but a PR/messaging disaster.

[Virginiá]

I read somewhere that Germany's assistance to Ukraine has been a physical success but a PR/messaging disaster.

That is a fair assessment, I think. They aren't necessarily being stingy, and if it looks like they are in terms of quantity, it's mostly because the German military hasn't been kept up or funded well enough for them to do better. But they've given a huge amount of less "flashy" military aid, like 500+ light transport trucks, hundreds of other vehicles, large amounts of field kit and medical supplies, ammunition, all sorts of logistical vehicles & equipment, etc. All this stuff militaries need to function even if they mostly work behind the scenes. Ukraine has a dire need for all of it since they had to expand their armed forces so much and so quickly.

But the way Germany has had to be dragged kicking and screaming into certain deliveries, like IFVs / tanks, and always seem to find themselves as the primary impediment for Ukraine getting something, even when they always seem to cave anyway, it's just political malpractice. It's just such a bad string of decisions and PR blunders that it would suggest maybe leadership isn't up to the job. I think people are fair to say these blunders could have ramifications down the line, and it's Scholz' and his ministers responsibility to maintain healthy alliances and not let Germany get so battered in such a pivotal moment for seemingly nothing.

[Frodo]

At last:

Germany signals shift in veto on Leopard tanks for Ukraine

[Middle-aged Europe]

Do we ACTUALLY know Scholz is okay with that? Plenty of times Baerbock or other Green/FDP ministers have made statements like that only to be shut down by Fearless Leader.

Honestly, at this point, I just don't even care what they say. I won't believe it until I see those tanks either in Ukraine, or on trains or trailers heading to Ukraine. I don't think Germany has done nothing - it would be criminal to say that, as they've given more aid than people know, but the way they've handled some requests (like tanks) is just the most ridiculous, politically incompetent episodes in this whole war. They are going to regret this down the road, when they find they've lost the faith and trust of some their allies and/or the people of those countries. And this doesn't even begin to touch on the real economic damage they are doing to their defense industry, who is going to lose customers left and right because the German government has signaled to allies that this country and its industries cannot be relied upon in grave circumstances.

I read somewhere that Germany's assistance to Ukraine has been a physical success but a PR/messaging disaster.

Germany's Ukraine policies are defined by disparate priorities of three different political parties that make up the governing coalition. When Germany is sending military equipment to Ukraine it is often the result of the more "hawkish" factions having at least temporarily gained the upper hand in the debate as a result of criticism that came from foreign governments. We may currrently approach a similar point with regards to Leopards.

Where "messaging" is concerned... I think nobody has ever accussed Olaf Scholz of being good at communicating things.

[Hollywood]

From a Ukrainian Source in Donbas:  Tom Cooper, an Australian-based War Expert, commented that “[] the Russians are coming in such numbers and so often that all units ended the day critically short on artillery and mortar ammunition. By the evening, Ukrainians were actually down to mowing down the assaulting Russians by machine guns alone."

“Another major problem for Ukraine is the lack of proper communications and coordination among "too many troops from too many different units into a much too small area" https://remarkboard.com/m/with-the-loss-of-soledar-ukrainian-positions-in-bakhmut/1hcwjpfquialb

Meanwhile, British Intelligence is monitoring Russian brigades that will soon join this major offensive in Donetsk, as well as push Ukraine out of Luhansk.  We might already be seeing the latter given the attacks on the Lyman Front.  These groupings in Luhansk and Donetsk make up army group Center, while the Force attacking Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk constitutes the Southern Offensive.  Since the UK seems to confirm the claims about the major Russian Offensive in the South and Center, I suspect Army Group North is getting ready to enter the conflict. If NATO has any weapons lying around, now is the time to go all-in.  https://latestindiannewstak.blogspot.com/2023/01/latest-british-intelligence-update-on_22.html

https://twitter.com/GeneralChowShow/status/1617379781602852867

[jaichind]

Fun fact: Not only are the heads of Russia and Ukraine both have Vladimir as their first name, but the heads of both militaries both have Valery as their first name (Valery Gerasimov for Russia and Valerii Zaluzhnyi for Ukraine)

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1617140821412683777

Wait.  If no tanks are sent to Ukraine then Ukraine will "bleed to death"?  That is a much more negative assessment of the situation than I would expect coming from a PM of a NATO state.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/MorawieckiM/status/1617140821412683777
Wait.  If no tanks are sent to Ukraine then Ukraine will "bleed to death"?  That is a much more negative assessment of the situation than I would expect coming from a PM of a NATO state.

It could be hyperbole serving the role of domestic theater.

[jaichind]

It could be hyperbole serving the role of domestic theater.

That is clearly what it is.  The main problem is this gets turned into the boy that cried wolf down the line if and when the situation actually does get worse for Ukraine.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It could be hyperbole serving the role of domestic theater.

That is clearly what it is.  The main problem is this gets turned into the boy that cried wolf down the line if and when the situation actually does get worse for Ukraine.

I could see this being a problem, particular if the tanks get sent and things still get worse.  Of course, Russia is disliked enough in Europe at this point that I don't think it looks likely to matter in any decisive way.
Also, not the slightest bit surprising that if any leader would spearhead such a public challenge to Germany's posture, it would be Poland's. Poland being a polar opposite to Germany in its relationship with Russia...

[Torie]

"Bleed to death" means thousands of unnecessary Ukrainian deaths and destruction due to German fecklessness, not that Ukraine is necessarily going down the tubes. The sooner the German government falls the better assuming that there is not a major course correction. Kudos to Poland for delivering the much needed tongue lashing. Germany yet again has trouble putting themselves in the shoes of the other. What the F is wrong with them?

[Virginiá]

They just keep saying things, and then walking it back. No one is on the same page.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1617481495555497985

Not an ideal way to make policy or communicate with the public.

[Torie]

What happens if Germany does stand in the way, and Poland sends them anyway? Perhaps Germany should get out of the arms manufacture business.

[Hollywood]

I'm going to side Germany on this one, because the US has a complimentary grouping of equipment just sitting around.  We have tanks, anti-aircraft, anti-tanks, armored vehicles, etc.  We have a complete set, so there's no reason to piece it together from different countries.  The US has to take the lead right now.  I understand that the Leopards are useful for offensives, but that ain't happening given the current circumstances.  Ukraine needs to train crewman and support, as well as defend agains the massive Russian offensive that has just begun.  There's no time left to F around.  What is Biden worried about - acting like a cowboy in America?  It's not like he's giving the weapons to Al Qaeda again.  Sorry ISIS-K.  I mean Moderate Muslims.  

Ukraine is about to confront a solid army. Russia is going to attack the Ukrainian forces in every direction.  I see tons of refurbished vehicles and equipment rolling down the tracks, and, as stated in an above post, UK Intelligence is warning about a large Russian Force moving-in to assist Wagner and the LPR.  F Europe.  America needs to lead, and keep things quiet.  

Edit: If accurate, then Holy S##t. 
https://twitter.com/InsiderGeo/status/1617567625613131788