Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1550216409300570116
Unknown amount of Russian soldiers are now trapped in the village of Vysokopillya in the Kherson region

Remember though, the Kherson offensive only exists on Twitter.

Nova noted above that a score of munitions depots have gone up in flames in the last three weeks. That seems like a lot. I look forward to reading an analysis as to just how much that will crimp Russia's style. The days of Russia just indiscriminately sending in missiles from afar at its leisure over populated areas to blow up whatever they might hit, might be coming to an end. If so, what does Russia do instead?  Send in demoralized troops who don't want to be there, and are poorly trained?  

The long-range missiles tend to be fired from Russia or at least outside of regular HIMARS range (the HIMARS rockets Ukraine has, that is), so they are not likely to be destroyed in ammunition dumps. Most of the destruction comes from shelling, not missiles, and this is certainly is impacted by the destruction of the dumps - the reason the missiles get focus is because they strike deeper into otherwise peaceful parts of Ukraine, far behind the front.

The depletion of Russia’s dedicated land-attack missiles has actually led to an increase in the kinds of missiles strikes you are talking about - I suspect most of these attacks aren’t meant to be indiscriminate, but end up looking that way because of degraded Russian capabilities rather than intentions. In the increasing absence of long-range precision strikes, they rely more heavily on long-range weapons that are older, less fit for purpose, and less precise. They fire much less frequently than at the start of the war, so it could well be months before the frequency of these strikes decreases even further (from a rumoured baseline of ~3-4 per day with occasional spikes). You can roughly estimate how many modern Kalibr missiles they have by looking at production and usage rates since they were introduced, but it’s harder to tell how many working Kh-22s they have left from the Soviet Union because the production/retention numbers are much less clear. Russian reliance on less precise missiles is good news for the Ukrainian Army, but arguably bad news for the civvies.

[jaichind]

Politics reaches the International Math Olympiad.  I follow this since I did a lot of competitive math in high school and college.    Since this year's competition was in Norway Russia was not allowed to send a team and instead just sent 6 individuals.  If you add up the Russian scores they would have come in second to PRC as opposed to ROK.

A Russian girl, Galiia Sharafetdinova, scored a perfect 42 becoming the second woman ever to achieve this score ever in IMO.   But because she was Russian this feat was not even acknowledged when they had the contestants that scored a perfect score of 42 come up.  I think the PRC contestants who had a clean sweep of all 6 members getting a perfect score of 42 also did not come up to accept accolades due to Galiia Sharafetdinova not even acknowledged for her perfect score let alone for her to come up to the podium. 



There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity. 

[emailking]

Russia and Ukraine agree to deal that would resume Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports

Ukraine and Russia have agreed to a deal that would allow the resumption of vital grain exports from Ukrainian Black Sea ports — a major diplomatic breakthrough aimed at easing a global food crisis sparked by the war, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said Friday.

This comes after months of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia mediated by Turkey and the United Nations.

“Today, there is a beacon on the Black Sea. A beacon of hope, a beacon of possibility, a beacon of relief in a world that needs it more than ever,” Guterres said.

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-07-22-22#h_35db4ee1dbc643cbab64b29936da1eef

[Person Man]

Politics reaches the International Math Olympiad.  I follow this since I did a lot of competitive math in high school and college.    Since this year's competition was in Norway Russia was not allowed to send a team and instead just sent 6 individuals.  If you add up the Russian scores they would have come in second to PRC as opposed to ROK.

A Russian girl, Galiia Sharafetdinova, scored a perfect 42 becoming the second woman ever to achieve this score ever in IMO.   But because she was Russian this feat was not even acknowledged when they had the contestants that scored a perfect score of 42 come up.  I think the PRC contestants who had a clean sweep of all 6 members getting a perfect score of 42 also did not come up to accept accolades due to Galiia Sharafetdinova not even acknowledged for her perfect score let alone for her to come up to the podium.  



There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity.  

BRRRRRRRRT!!
https://twitter.com/haynesdeborah/status/1549860094774493184

It would probably be the least useful donor jet for reasons gone into elsewhere, but the US Air Force has been looking for any excuse to get rid of them. The A-10 close support planes are an interesting example of MIC grift; they’ve been known to be a waste of money for decades by the Air Force, but the Army lobbies to have the Air Force keep them anyway because it means part of the Air Force’s budget goes exclusively (but inefficiently) to helping the Army. They are helped in this expensive act of trolling by Congresscritters who ignore evidence when lobbyists deploy the “Brrrt!” card.

Exactly. The A-10 is probably the most useless aircraft the US has, and is beyond obsolete in modern warfare.

The only European countries that are represented are the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany. What's happening there?

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Politics reaches the International Math Olympiad.  I follow this since I did a lot of competitive math in high school and college.    Since this year's competition was in Norway Russia was not allowed to send a team and instead just sent 6 individuals.  If you add up the Russian scores they would have come in second to PRC as opposed to ROK.

A Russian girl, Galiia Sharafetdinova, scored a perfect 42 becoming the second woman ever to achieve this score ever in IMO.   But because she was Russian this feat was not even acknowledged when they had the contestants that scored a perfect score of 42 come up.  I think the PRC contestants who had a clean sweep of all 6 members getting a perfect score of 42 also did not come up to accept accolades due to Galiia Sharafetdinova not even acknowledged for her perfect score let alone for her to come up to the podium.  



There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity.  

Right, because the... *checks notes* International Math Olympiad normally dominates the headlines. Surely the only reason that the "Western media" isn't writing loads of stories about this is Russophobia. In a normal year all 10 contestants who finished with perfect scores would get front page coverage in the New York Times and primetime interviews on the BBC, but only because of Western hypocrisy are they being ignored. This is the greatest injustice of the war.

[jaichind]

The only European countries that are represented are the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany. What's happening there?

That is just list of gold medal winners of which a subset scored a perfect 42

https://www.imo-official.org/year_individual_r.aspx?year=2022&column=total&order=desc

is a list of all contestants (note Russians are labeled as C01 to C06 as country)


https://www.imo-official.org/year_country_r.aspx?year=2022&column=total&order=desc

Is the breakout by country.  Note Russia would have been second if you add up their scores

[jaichind]

Politics reaches the International Math Olympiad.  I follow this since I did a lot of competitive math in high school and college.    Since this year's competition was in Norway Russia was not allowed to send a team and instead just sent 6 individuals.  If you add up the Russian scores they would have come in second to PRC as opposed to ROK.

A Russian girl, Galiia Sharafetdinova, scored a perfect 42 becoming the second woman ever to achieve this score ever in IMO.   But because she was Russian this feat was not even acknowledged when they had the contestants that scored a perfect score of 42 come up.  I think the PRC contestants who had a clean sweep of all 6 members getting a perfect score of 42 also did not come up to accept accolades due to Galiia Sharafetdinova not even acknowledged for her perfect score let alone for her to come up to the podium.  



There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity.  

Right, because the... *checks notes* International Math Olympiad normally dominates the headlines. Surely the only reason that the "Western media" isn't writing loads of stories about this is Russophobia. In a normal year all 10 contestants who finished with perfect scores would get front page coverage in the New York Times and primetime interviews on the BBC, but only because of Western hypocrisy are they being ignored. This is the greatest injustice of the war.

That's partially fair.  Still, the Guardian mentions Lisa Sauermann who was the only other woman to score a perfect 42 as the " was the most successful participant in the 2011 IMO " which is deceptive since was one of a dozen (all of rest of them men of course) to score 42

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/jul/03/joe-benton-international-maths-prodigy-olympiad-mathlete

Just to be clear a search of "Galiia Sharafetdinova" shows up zero times in google news.  I am not looking for some mega news story but even a 1 liner in one news article saying a Russian girl for the second time became a women that scored a perfect 42 in IMO.

[jaichind]

Just like it is bad for the parasite to kill its host I think Russia will ship just enough gas for the Germans to slowly deplete its gas reserves (Germany should be building up its reserves in the summer) and then leave Germany without any gas reserves when winter comes which is when Russia might dictate terms.  All this depends on the financial buffer the Russians have to be able to play this type of game.
 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nord-stream-1-gas-pipeline-nominations-show-rise-july-21-operator-website-2022-07-21/

Looks like NS1 flow is 40% which is just enough for Germany to get by but not enough to build up a necessary reserve for the winter.  Seems Putin is adopting my proposed strategy.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/20/cia-putin-health-00047046

"CIA director: Putin 'too healthy'"

Now CIA says that Putin is "too healthy"

[NOVA Green]

Looks like Ukraine is getting some additional military assistance from the US per WaPo about an hour ago:

The latest $270 million package includes four M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS, boosting the total number the United States has provided Kyiv to 16, said John Kirby, a White House spokesman. The package also includes 36,000 rounds of ammunition for howitzers and funding for up to 580 Phoenix Ghost drones, unmanned aircraft that can be used to target opposing forces directly or to perform reconnaissance for artillery strikes.

Also here are some Pentagon estimates of some of the Russian military casualties and estimates of "high value targets" hit:

Ukraine’s strike campaign has put new strains on a Russian military that already has suffered at least 15,000 military fatalities since invading Ukraine in February, and is suffering hundreds more dead and wounded each day, according to Western estimates. Among those combat losses are thousands of lieutenants and captains, hundreds of colonels, and “many” generals, said a senior U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the Pentagon.

Ukraine already has struck more than 100 “high-value” Russian military targets, including command posts, ammunition depots, air-defense sites, radar and communication nodes, and long-range artillery positions, the U.S. defense official said. While Russia continues to launch thousands of artillery rounds per day, the official said, Moscow “can’t keep it up forever” and has now committed 85 percent of its army to the war in Ukraine.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/07/22/ukraine-artillery-russia/

[NOVA Green]

Also some snippets from a WSJ exclusive article interviewing Mr. Zelensky earlier today:

Recent shipments of U.S. and allied weapons, particularly the Himars multiple-launch rocket systems and 155 mm howitzers, have helped to blunt Russia’s offensive in Donbas and stabilize the situation there, Mr. Zelensky said. The Russians used to fire 12,000 artillery shells daily against 1,000 to 2,000 by Ukraine, he said. Now, he added, Ukraine can fire some 6,000 shells a day while Russia is beginning to feel a shortage of ammunition and troops.

This change in the balance of firepower has stemmed Ukrainian casualties, Mr. Zelensky said. At the peak of fighting in May and June, he said, Ukraine was losing between 100 and 200 troops a day; now, it is down to some 30 fatalities a day and around 250 wounded.

The Western supplies of Himars, while making a material difference, are much lower than what Ukraine needs to turn the tide, Mr. Zelensky said. An even more urgent need, however, is air-defense systems that could prevent Russia from raining long-range missiles on otherwise peaceful cities hundreds of miles from the front lines, he said. The U.S. and Germany have pledged, but not yet delivered, such large-area systems.

These air-defenses would be much cheaper for the U.S. and Europe to provide than keeping afloat the Ukrainian economy, with its monthly budget shortfall of $5 billion, Mr. Zelensky said. More than six million Ukrainians have fled the country since February, and most of them remain outside the country, mostly in Europe.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-says-a-cease-fire-with-russia-without-reclaiming-lost-lands-will-only-prolong-war-11658510019?mod=hp_lead_pos4

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This raises an interesting point...can Ukraine afford to maintain such a powerful military on such a poor economy? We might need to aid them on that front...

[Virginiá]

The UK is providing an additional 50,000 rounds of 152mm Soviet artillery ammunition it has sourced, and L119 light howitzers, but as Ukr. defense official Oleksiy Danilov stated recently, available stocks of this ammunition type are nearly (or already) exhausted, aside from whatever that single factory in Europe can produce on a daily basis. I'm not sure how much Ukraine depends on Soviet howitzers right now, though. If they went from using 1k - 2k rounds a day a couple months ago to 6k now, that isn't likely due to a windfall of 152mm - probably NATO 155mm. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see another large-ish batch of M777s and/or other self-propelled howitzers drop within the next month. Part of the UK's aid was 20 M109A4 self-propelled howitzers, so that's already starting.

I'm also curious what the status is for the ammo the T-72 variants and also BMPs Ukraine depends on. I figure Poland's tank force was previously heavily dependent on T-72s, so they probably can produce this or have ample stock, considering they are basically giving Ukraine all of them so they can upgrade to the Abrams and Korea's K2.

This raises an interesting point...can Ukraine afford to maintain such a powerful military on such a poor economy? We might need to aid them on that front...

EU/US already is, but yea, that is a major concern over the next 12 months (or less). IIRC, it was posted here or elsewhere that Ukraine's GDP has basically been halved because of the conflict.

[BG-NY]

There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity.  

Incredibly disappointing to hear. This is a very impressive achievement (on the other hand, it looks like the Ukrainian Ihor is mentioned in at least one Western outlet). At least this isn't as bad as the Medvedev ban at Wimbledon.

Russian citizens aren't soldiers...they didn't endorse this war. Do we have any outside polling on support anyway? Have to imagine a majority of Russians don't support the effort.

[jaichind]

There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity.  

Incredibly disappointing to hear. This is a very impressive achievement (on the other hand, it looks like the Ukrainian Ihor is mentioned in at least one Western outlet). At least this isn't as bad as the Medvedev ban at Wimbledon.

Russian citizens aren't soldiers...they didn't endorse this war. Do we have any outside polling on support anyway? Have to imagine a majority of Russians don't support the effort.

I saw a video of the closing ceremony.  It seems they had an electronic board with a list of contestants that had a perfect score of 42.  But instead of listing all 9 such contestants, they had a list of 8 names leaving out the Russian girl that had a perfect score.   This feels like Cultural Revolution tactics.

[BG-NY]

I saw a video of the closing ceremony.  It seems they had an electronic board with a list of contestants that had a perfect score of 42.  But instead of listing all 9 such contestants, they had a list of 8 names leaving out the Russian girl that had a perfect score.   This feels like Cultural Revolution tactics.

I never made it close to IMO (was 2xUSAMO Soph/Junior year in HS and performed mediocrely both times), but know the types of kids who were medalists from college. They dedicate their entire childhoods to math competitions. Literally finishing on top of the world, perfect score, and then your achievements are washed away. Unless the reports are incorrect, this is absolutely disgusting.

[jaichind]

I saw a video of the closing ceremony.  It seems they had an electronic board with a list of contestants that had a perfect score of 42.  But instead of listing all 9 such contestants, they had a list of 8 names leaving out the Russian girl that had a perfect score.   This feels like Cultural Revolution tactics.

I never made it close to IMO (was 2xUSAMO Soph/Junior year in HS and performed mediocrely both times), but know the types of kids who were medalists from college. They dedicate their entire childhoods to math competitions. Literally finishing on top of the world, perfect score, and then your achievements are washed away. Unless the reports are incorrect, this is absolutely disgusting.

I did well enough in the AMC in my senior year to make it to the camp where they selected the USA IMO team.  I was cut very early.  I was good but the top 5-10 kids there were much much better than me.  I knew that was going to happen.   I grew up in Montgomery  County MD back in the late 1980s and I was friends with 2 members of the USA IMO team (one a year ahead of me and one a year after me) so I knew what it took to make the team it was clearly not me.  In college one of my bridge club buddies was a member of the PRC IMO team.  We discussed a lot of PRC-ROC politics in addition to the bridge but he also told me about the math competition scene in the PRC. Because of all this, I still follow AMC and ARML in the USA and IMO internationally every year. 

One of the kids of my best friends at work (who happens to be a Ukrainian Jew)  is in his senior year in Styvastant and I think has a chance to make it to the IMO camp next spring camp to select the USA IMO team. I will be rooting for him to make it to the camp although to be realistic his chances to making the team would be remote like me if he even makes it that far.

[Middle-aged Europe]

There is zero mention in the Western media about this amazing accomplishment by the Russian Galiia Sharafetdinova that became the second woman in history to get a perfect score in IMO.  So the need to go after Russia is even overriding the woken agenda of gender equity. 

I guess you'll just have to find a way to live with it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Russia Central Bank

a) Lower rates to 8%, lower than before the war
b) expect 2022 GDP fall to be minus 4%-6% vs previous 8%-10%
c) expect 2022 inflation to be 15.5% vs previous 17.5%

Wow that's fantastic for Russia. A 4% GDP drop and 15.5% inflation... totally no problem there. They completely saved their economy!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Russia Central Bank

a) Lower rates to 8%, lower than before the war
b) expect 2022 GDP fall to be minus 4%-6% vs previous 8%-10%
c) expect 2022 inflation to be 15.5% vs previous 17.5%

Wow that's fantastic for Russia. A 4% GDP drop and 15.5% inflation... totally no problem there. They completely saved their economy!

"Fantastic" is a matter of perspective. Obviously they aren't out of the woods yet...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Russian citizens aren't soldiers...they didn't endorse this war. Do we have any outside polling on support anyway? Have to imagine a majority of Russians don't support the effort.

We do, and it shows broad support for the war, BUT response rates to the pollsters were beyond abysmal (which is characteristic of Russia's generally demoralized and affrighted body politic), so who the hell knows.

[The Dowager Mod]

Russians have been murdering Women and Children for 5 months but I'm gonna get my Knickers in a twist because some Russian got snubbed at a math contest. lol

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This raises an interesting point...can Ukraine afford to maintain such a powerful military on such a poor economy? We might need to aid them on that front...

Ukraine has the same GDP per capita as Moldova, even Belarus has a higher GDP per capita. The Russian aggression since 2014 also scared away foreign investment.

The Western aid is a mix of financial, humanitarian and military aid.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This raises an interesting point...can Ukraine afford to maintain such a powerful military on such a poor economy? We might need to aid them on that front...

Ukraine has the same GDP per capita as Moldova, even Belarus has a higher GDP per capita. The Russian aggression in since 2014 also scared away foreign investment.

Yeah. I was thinking long-term. Ukraine's military has been basically made brand-new by this war. It's so up-to-date that Ukrainian tax dollars might go broke maintaining it...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Russians have been murdering Women and Children for 5 months but I'm gonna get my Knickers in a twist because some Russian got snubbed at a math contest. lol

It is so perfectly jaichind to make this war about a Math Olympiad (a pursuit I associate strongly with such ghoulish milieus as high-IQ societies, Future Business Leaders of America clubs, and the children of, well, the "aging finance bro" segment of society that jaichind himself belongs to), isn't it?