Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Person Man]

Question: is there any way sanctions could actually get tougher against Russia?

Secondary sanctions. We could literally throw back the developing world into poverty if they help Putin and bring our jobs home.

That sounds like would take a long time to recreate productive capacity in the collective West with the massive capital formation which ironic would need to be imported from economies that are meant to get secondary sanctions.

It seems the answer to the question is to pay: namely the collective West should just go and pay 30% above market prices for all non-Russian energy and food producers and then sell the same energy and food on the market at a 30% discount and increase the discount if Russia cuts their prices on the world market.  The economic cost of this would be massive and I would love to see the collective west leadership try to sell this to their voters but if they are willing to pay it would crush Russia.

Trump did open the door to using the defense budget for infrastructure and industrial policy. Why do we need a chipper infrastructure bill when we can just spend large portions of defense budget on foundries in highways?

This is all avoidable. We shouldn’t trade with people who aren’t safe to us.

[Storr]

Using Himars on bridges is so stupid.

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552047088891985922?s=20&t=xxaQhnakPdpERn...

Ha-Ha!

The Putin bots have been getting nervous. This is the first daylight evidence of the damage the HIMARS did to the Antonovsky Bridge. Russian vehicles will not be able to cross for a long time.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1552198330779852801

I doubt the damage is minor if they're setting up ferry crossings:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1552169933068533770?s=20&t=aRnYWZ5FTfaY5T...

https://twitter.com/zahed/status/1552211474570952709?s=20&t=7QPiR_ugQsFXCtnX...

https://twitter.com/zahed/status/1552211479751008256?s=20&t=7QPiR_ugQsFXCtnX...

https://twitter.com/zahed/status/1552211501813059585?s=20&t=7QPiR_ugQsFXCtnX...

https://twitter.com/zahed/status/1552214707989250049?s=20&t=7QPiR_ugQsFXCtnX...

https://twitter.com/zahed/status/1552254637310353409?s=20&t=7QPiR_ugQsFXCtnX...

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1552287322179358720

[The Dowager Mod]

If taking out FSB agents with a switchblade is a "war crime", I wonder what this is.
https://twitter.com/missOlga1201/status/1552278753035919361

[bilaps]

If taking out FSB agents with a switchblade is a "war crime", I wonder what this is.
https://twitter.com/missOlga1201/status/1552278753035919361

Yeah yeah yeah, fsb agent aka moldovan citizen

[Torie]

I wonder if Putin can survive "losing" Kherson. And I read that Ukraine is now within firing range of the town, which hopefully is now devoid of civilians so it becomes Dante's Inferno as it were.

[AndyHogan14]

I wonder if Putin can survive "losing" Kherson. And I read that Ukraine is now within firing range of the town, which hopefully is now devoid of civilians so it becomes Dante's Inferno as it were.

I would love for Putin to be couped as a result of losing Kherson, but at this point, I am of the belief that only natural death will relieve the world of his presence. He seems to have such an iron grip over the Russian state that it would make some of the old Soviet leaders blush.

[jaichind]

https://news.err.ee/1608667666/eu-ministers-reach-agreement-to-reduce-natural-gas-consumption-15-percent

"EU ministers reach agreement to reduce natural gas consumption 15 percent"

This deal sounds like a joke.  First, it is not binding but "best efforts"  And even if some EU countries have surplus gas, like Greece, there is no way to transport that gas to Germany in the winter so it is not clear what this is supposed to accomplish.  If Putin does not play ball  Germany will face economic collapse in the Winter and there is no way around this.

[The Dowager Mod]

If taking out FSB agents with a switchblade is a "war crime", I wonder what this is.
https://twitter.com/missOlga1201/status/1552278753035919361

Yeah yeah yeah, fsb agent aka moldovan citizen

lol regurgitating fake info.

[jaichind]

https://ukranews.com/en/news/871746-ukraine-asks-usa-to-provide-gas-lend-lease-for-stable-heating-season

"Ukraine Asks USA To Provide "Gas Lend-Lease" For Stable Heating Season"

So now Ukraine wants free gas from the USA.  The main problem is that there is long that much LNG to go around.  Germany might need to buy up all the LNG it can get soon so the USA will face the issue of selling its LNG to Germany or giving it to Ukraine for free.

Frankly, if I were Germany I would start to buy up LNG on the spot market ASAP.  Germany's LNG processing capacity is limited so it is best to start now to try to build it its gas reserve is now nearly zero.  But that just means less LNG for Ukraine, free or not.

[Storr]

This seems like an suspiciously timed incident, with the bridge being heavily damaged just last night:

"Kherson, 07/27/22, collaborators' trash car after detonating an IED hidden in roadside trash. As a result of the explosion, Sergei Fesenko (former inspector of the 1st platoon of the 3rd company) and Vitaly Chvankov (former inspector of the 2nd platoon of the 2nd company) were injured"

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1552323452887076865?s=20&t=bxcMShRP_r5...

[Middle-aged Europe]

This thread doesn't really seem to be up-to-date with regards to the state of the nuclear energy debate in Germany btw.

It is still subject to the outcome of ongoing feasibility and safety studies and there are a lot of practical issues to be solved like the uncertain short-term supply with new fuel rods, but given that Green Vice-chancellor Robert Habeck hasn't ruled out the extension anymore yesterday, I'm inclined to predict that the nuclear power phase-out will likely be postponed/cancelled.

[jaichind]

This thread doesn't really seem to be up-to-date with regards to the state of the nuclear energy debate in Germany btw.

It is still subject to the outcome of ongoing feasibility and safety studies and there are a lot of practical issues to be solved like the uncertain short-term supply with new fuel rods, but given that Green Vice-chancellor Robert Habeck hasn't ruled out the extension anymore yesterday, I'm inclined to predict that the nuclear power phase-out will likely be postponed/cancelled.

That would make logical sense.  Another thing to do would be what they already doing which is to ramp up coal usage.  I would be eager to hear from the German Green Party and Greta Thunberg when these two decisions are locked in.

[Storr]

Sketchy barge-ferry to replace the damaged Antonovsky Bridge: possibly up and running

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1552385428971462659?s=20&t=dV52q3...

Russian propaganda photo of PTSs and pontoons (presumably) during an exercise:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552387529910919168?s=20&t=dV52q3gE9WUmiO...

[Storr]

Sketchy barge-ferry to replace the damaged Antonovsky Bridge: possibly up and running

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1552385428971462659?s=20&t=dV52q3...

[tweet snip]

There aren't many good locations to set up a pontoon bridge or ferry. The Dnieper is nearly 1000m wide at the Antonovsky Bridge, complicating things further. Based on the tweet I'm quoting, the Russians appear to be using the road access right next to the Antonovsky bridge:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552254474776977408?s=20&t=dV52q3gE9WUmiO...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I wonder if Putin can survive "losing" Kherson.

I would expect it to be perfectly survivable - his political losses in phase 1 of the war were far greater, and Kherson wasn't the focus of the positive Russian propaganda to the extent that e.g. Mariupol was.

The city itself isn't really part of the "Novorossiya" mythos or involved in the Donbas pretexts; it's Russia's biggest prize of the 2022 campaign, but tangential to the LDPR/land bridge objectives. IIRC, the Nova Kakhova dam controlling freshwater supply to Crimea is operated from the east bank of the Dnieper.

It's a gold star and represents an opportunity for Russia to push further west of the Dnieper, but that opportunity looks increasingly remote anyway.

And I read that Ukraine is now within firing range of the town, which hopefully is now devoid of civilians so it becomes Dante's Inferno as it were.

No city ever is, especially one which is likely to be besieged before (if) it is assaulted in earnest.

[Torie]

I wonder if Putin can survive "losing" Kherson.

I would expect it to be perfectly survivable - his political losses in phase 1 of the war were far greater, and Kherson wasn't the focus of the positive Russian propaganda to the extent that e.g. Mariupol was.

The city itself isn't really part of the "Novorossiya" mythos or involved in the Donbas pretexts; it's Russia's biggest prize of the 2022 campaign, but tangential to the LDPR/land bridge objectives. IIRC, the Nova Kakhova dam controlling freshwater supply to Crimea is operated from the east bank of the Dnieper.

It's a gold star and represents an opportunity for Russia to push further west of the Dnieper, but that opportunity looks increasingly remote anyway.

And I read that Ukraine is now within firing range of the town, which hopefully is now devoid of civilians so it becomes Dante's Inferno as it were.

No city ever is, especially one which is likely to be besieged before (if) it is assaulted in earnest.

I get what you are saying, but if there is a major battle for Kherson with Putinites being blown away and have to withdraw, and then Putin tries to shut the war down, that seems to me a major dent in his image. As goes Trump, so goes Putin. Now let us pray.

[NOVA Green]

I wonder if Putin can survive "losing" Kherson. And I read that Ukraine is now within firing range of the town, which hopefully is now devoid of civilians so it becomes Dante's Inferno as it were.

It seems to be pretty clear that Ukrainian military strategy when it comes to Kherson City, has been to gradually expand control of various villages and settlements for precisely the purpose of getting their longer range artillery systems within range of the town without exposing them to Russian artillery counter barrage actions.

Although nobody knows the exact population of Kherson City itself these days (Especially with Russian "Filtration Camps" and moving civilians from Russian-Ukraine '14 borders into "abandoned homes and dwellings", from info out there sounds like maybe 200k still reside in the city proper from a pre-war population of ~300k.

Still Torie you make a good point in that Putin and the Kremlin propaganda machine has been busy show casing the "success stories" over the past month or so, and naturally many Russians who buy the "Putin Narrative", will certainly wonder how they "lost" Kherson City.

[NOVA Green]

This seems like an suspiciously timed incident, with the bridge being heavily damaged just last night:

"Kherson, 07/27/22, collaborators' trash car after detonating an IED hidden in roadside trash. As a result of the explosion, Sergei Fesenko (former inspector of the 1st platoon of the 3rd company) and Vitaly Chvankov (former inspector of the 2nd platoon of the 2nd company) were injured"

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1552323452887076865?s=20&t=bxcMShRP_r5...

Sorry Storr... not quite sure what the "Google Translate" or sourcing is?

I am assuming this means that Ukrainian Partisans or undercover Ukrainian Special Forces took out a vehicle containing "Russian Collaborators" in Kherson?

If so, not surprising at all... believe I had posted credible reports a month or so back about how Ukraine had special forces cells operating deep within some of the first larger cities to be conquered in the '22 Russian Invasion & Occupation.

I would imagine such efforts will intensify as Ukrainian military forces continue what is effectively a "siege" strategy for a relatively large city, exposed and vulnerable because of the geographical locations, lack of ability of Russian forces to resupply versus air.

Sure the street to street battles to liberate the city might well be bloody, but at some point defenders need access to basic things like fuel, ammo, food, etc...

In this case, I believe Ukraine has the advantage and I have a sneaking suspicion that the overwhelming majority of the residents of Kherson City would just rather have the Russians leave and "Go on Home Russian Soldiers, Go on Home"...

[NOVA Green]

WSJ

Overnight and into Wednesday morning, Ukraine used Himars rocket systems to again strike the Antonivsky bridge, Ukrainian and Russian officials said. The bridge links Kherson with other Russian-held areas in southern Ukraine across the Dnipro river and is used by Moscow to resupply the city and forces stationed there. Video shared on Russian Telegram channels showed severe damage to both sides of the bridge, rendering it impassable for vehicle traffic.

“I want to calm people: the bridge is standing,” the Russian-installed deputy head of the Kherson region, Kirill Stremousov, wrote on Telegram. “It’s true that it was struck but that doesn’t mean we should somehow be afraid of someone or flee somewhere.”

Mr. Stremousov assured local residents that suspending operations on the bridge wouldn’t affect supplies and deliveries into the city. But the strikes come as Ukraine readies what it has billed as a major counteroffensive aimed at retaking Kherson, a city captured by Russia in the first days of the war. In comments to Russian state news agency TASS on Wednesday, Mr. Stremousov said Ukrainian forces had fired at least 36 missiles at the Kherson region overnight. He later added that ferry crossings across the Dnipro would be launched on Thursday.

Meanwhile on the Russian Home Front:

On Wednesday, Russia said strategic military exercises would be held in its far east beginning next month, which would be the first such event since a flurry of highly publicized exercises in the buildup to its invasion of Ukraine in February. The Defense Ministry said the exercises would run from Aug. 30 to Sept. 5, a show of strength in parts of the country that have sent entire garrisons to fight in Ukraine and that critics say were left exposed as a result.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-strikes-crucial-bridge-in-russian-occupied-south-11658920502

[NOVA Green]

Sketchy barge-ferry to replace the damaged Antonovsky Bridge: possibly up and running

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1552385428971462659?s=20&t=dV52q3...

[tweet snip]

Interestingly enough part of the latest military package "Uncle Sam" is sending to Ukraine are "River Boats"...

Ukraine will get 18 patrol boats to help defend its waterways and ports in the latest tranche of U.S. military aid, a senior defense official said Friday.

The 18 boats include two 35-foot riverine craft, six 40-foot maritime combat craft boats and ten 34-foot Dauntless Sea Ark patrol boats, the official said.

The boats are part of a $450 million package announced Thursday by the Biden administration and are “largely to protect the riverways,” the official said. They were requested by the Ukrainian government to help it maintain access to its rivers and “close-in coastal areas.”

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2022/06/us-sending-patrol-boats-help-ukraine-control-its-rivers/368576/

There aren't many good locations to set up a pontoon bridge or ferry. The Dnieper is nearly 1000m wide at the Antonovsky Bridge, complicating things further. Based on the tweet I'm quoting, the Russians appear to be using the road access right next to the Antonovsky bridge:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1552254474776977408?s=20&t=dV52q3gE9WUmiO...

[Virginiá]

Only way Ukrainian attacks on bridges using HIMARS make sense is if they would have unlimited amount of rockets and launchers which is known not to be true. But hey, they are losing ground still in the east, they don't have success south, they just lost entire command structure of the 28th mechanized brigade so they have to show us something. Outside of Zelensky taking pictures with Vogue while peole are dying

It doesn't mean they are going after bridges everywhere with rockets, and it doesn't even necessarily mean all their attacks on that one specific bridge were using MLR Systems either. They do have precision artillery shells as well. This bridge has been attacked several different times now.

At any rate, they don't need unlimited ammunition to do this. If we're assuming they have or are going to receive thousands of rockets, then they can easily use a dozen or two on a strategic target like this. But they can't really make a habit of it, either.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile questions being asked about the US ability to continue to supply enough HIMAR shells to meet battlefield needs:

(Free Site- Non Paywall)

The constant refrain from Ukraine has been a call for more - as many as 100 HIMARS, which equates to about 20 percent of the entire U.S. stock for both the Army and Marines, which each use HIMARS. But over the long haul, Kyiv should worry more about its supply of munitions, not the launch vehicles themselves, some experts say.

“As long as you only have 12 or 20 HIMARS systems, the [munitions] burn rate is not going to be a near-term problem,” retired Marine Col. Mark Cancian, who worked at the Office of Management and Budget on Pentagon procurement programs and is now a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic & International Studies, told The War Zone. “When you start getting more than that, and you start looking out three months, four months, I think at the end of four months, you may just run out.”

While it is unknown how many rockets the Ukrainians have fired from the HIMARS it already has, Hertling estimated that 16 such systems - which are pre-loaded with six-round pods - each firing a full volley just twice a day would burn through about 5,800 rockets a month.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/are-there-enough-guided-rockets-for-himars-to-keep-up-with-ukraine-war-demand

Despite my instinctive Green-Left perspectives involving the "War Machine", "Military Industrial Complex", and actively supporting a bloated military with subcontractor rip-offs, while meanwhile GI Joe/Jane getting jacked for their years of military service... I believe (unfortunately and really hate to say it is that Western Armament factories don't run at anywhere to the levels they used to going back to Post-Vietnam Era and Post-Cold War Era...

Still believe, as true Internationalist that despite what is likely to be a dramatically expanded (20) year period of the military industrial complex globally to continue to spend so much money, which instead could be used collectively to help Climate Change impacts, Global Food Security, where both the Global North, Global South, and various "Non-Aligned" growing powers.

There is so much benefit to all humans on planet Earth to defund the War Machine, but reality is our planet is likely to be so divided to the point where collectively we might well face mass extinction, if our current GHG emissions continue to "lose pledged target goals"...

Enough said for now... as I get closer to the end of my story, sometimes the sadder I get about the Global Future yet to come for my kids and grandkids...

[Storr]

This will only encourage more hostage taking by Russia.

https://twitter.com/andrzejswe/status/1552443068078751745?s=20&t=Z99hlDOMjez...

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile "Mother Russia" is visibly floating Nuclear Weapons capability somewhere around the Baltics...

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1551486377124134913?s=20&t=x8w08QT5D...