Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

The Ukraine could join NATO only after Putin dies. Putin wants to bring back the Soviet Union and make Russia a super power again. Maybe the next Russian generation will be more liberal.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Russia has no allies other than Belarus. China and Russia are friendly, but they are not allies. At the worst it would be a regional European war.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

There are reports that 5 Russian helicopters got shot down today

Remember what I said about slav squatters with Stingers?

This is like the Mujahideen in Soviet-Afghan war.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

And another case of "the worst person you know just made a great point".

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497170134095613955?s=20&t=tUbB4EXR7_C...

100%.
NATO should put troops in the West. It’s not too late. Dare the Russians to fight us.

NATO should land a bunch of planes on Ukrainian airfields, and dare Russia to attack them.

Bush sent a US air force plane to the Georgian capitol during the 2008 Russian invasion, and it helped keep Russia out of Tbilisi.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/sbg1/status/1497231076011487233

I don't think Putin is this dumb. If he attacked Sweden and/or Finland, it would be a completely different ball game. IMO, they should already be in NATO, but I doubt it would matter. At that point, even die-hard Putin appeasers in Europe would be able to see his endgame. Norway, even if they're not attacked, I bet would swiftly respond. The Nordic countries are too close culturally to stand by when the others are invaded I believe. This would then likely pull in Poland and then the rest of Europe, and then probably the US into war, which would absolutely decimate Russia militarily.

wouldnt this trigger a coup in moscow?

I mean, hopefully. After all, I don't want Russian civilians to suffer or die, even as much as I find myself being more and more rabidly pro-involvement in the whole Ukranian invasion situation. I want Russia's military to be severely degraded and/or destroyed (if need be - and that is wholly up to them) so they can't bully smaller democratic countries anymore.

I would love it if the West came up with a way to impose sanctions so severe on the russian economy that Putin was overthrown from the inside by a fed-up russian populace and oligarchy, and the US ended up not having to fire a shot. Probably a pipe dream, I know, but that would be the ideal endgame.

If this war ends disastrously for Russia, there could be a coup to overthrow Putin by the Generals.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Agree. You cannot overstate the morale boost he is providing.

If the Germans had entered the outskirts of London in WW2, even Winston Churchill would have fled to a new capitol.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Some more details are coming out about the third sanction package the EU is working on. Apparently, it's not only an exclusion of Swift, EU also seeks to freeze all foreign exchange reserves of the Russian Central Bank and oligarchs, making their money worthless. This is definitely big stuff.

(I'm sorry this is in German, just couldn't find a report in English that quick).

https://twitter.com/markuspreiss/status/1497657994120773632

They should also sanction the oligarch's children. Most of them attend western universities and them being forced back to Russia would hurt their oligarch parents.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Infantry walking in utterly exposed with a few light vehicles in front, in broad daylight seems like not the best idea. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497823461510725632?s=20&t=6bRrpIGEe...

Putin and the Russian army are not the evil geniuses we had thought.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498098770273312769

Belarus Jets???

Is this the upcoming "5 AM Airdrop" ?

If so am assuming they are providing close tactical support against Ukrainian Air Defense systems.

The thing is I'm not sure which 05:00. Belarus uses Moscow time (05:00 in 15 minutes) while Ukraine uses EET (05:00 in 1 hour and 15 minutes). I'd assume Belarus would plan using the time zone the country itself uses. It's the final countdown either way, I suppose.

Although Belarus has a small and weak army, another invader is the last thing Ukraine needs.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Someone somewhere mentioned that Putin intended his blitzkrieg invasion of Ukraine as the 21st century version of the 1956 Suez Canal Crisis that would be to the United States what the original was to Britain and France.  Clearly his gambit has backfired big time, revealing it is Russia -and not the United States- that can no longer be regarded as a true global superpower.  

Unless of course you consider the nuclear weapons stockpile it inherited from the Soviet Union, but then again so do Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel...and they can hardly be considered 'superpowers' in any real sense of the term.  

After the collapse of the USSR, Russia lost it's superpower status. Russia is still a great power similar to Japan, Germany, France and the UK.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

I’m terrified for Kherson. Who knows what crimes Russia is committing there?

The southern front in Ukraine is the worst front for the Ukrainians, if there is a Russian breakthrough it will happen in the south. It's been mostly a stalemate on the other fronts. Twitter and the media are mostly focusing on Kiev and Kharkov.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498815833681891332

Bu... but Comrade Putin has said in Soviet Russia you don't need large banks and financial institutions.

The Western sanctions against Russia are stronger then even Germany in WW2. The allies did not sanction the German central bank.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Personally, I'd guess the figure is at least 3,000 Russians killed. If you assume the ratio of injured to deaths is 3:1 (after all, what official Kremiln ratio is 498: 1500), that's 9,000 injured. An army, even as large as Russia's, having more than 10,000 casualties in 7 days is not sustainable.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1499148057610489859?s=20&t=QTFsbDSW...

The Soviets had around 15,000 killed in the 10 year Soviet-Afghan war. This war could surpass that in a few weeks.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

A good thread, imo. The key for Ukraine has always been time. The longer they fight, even if territory is lost, the more of a quagmire the war becomes for Russia.


https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502077318465998848?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078979976613912?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502085135667187717?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1502078360012349440?s=20&t=pjNK-rLQjqu...

Despite Ukrainian bravery and tactical victories, the Russian bear is still making slow but steady progress in taking Ukrainian territory.

With each city the Ukrainians lose that means that they lose manpower, resources and manufacturing capacity to keep fighting.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1503154188355870724?
Here's hoping to a lucky sniper, drone or missile meeting with Mr Kadyrov.

Ramzan Kadyrov is more of a deplorable thug then Putin.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Clearly an American spy or Russian 5th columnist

Moscow Man

Florida man must have moved to Moscow.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The thing about war crimes is that sometimes they're hard to define exactly and there are grey areas and complications and technicalities... and sometimes they're incredibly clear-cut. Bombing a theatre sheltering maybe thousands of people would be an example of the latter. Anyway, the grim and ghastly thing is that none of this is necessarily contradictory with the suggestion that Putin is looking for a way out of this mess. Not remotely.

True but committing more war crimes makes it harder for Ukrainians to accept a ceasefire deal. Some of the more hardline Ukrainian paramilitary groups are already decrying the leaked deal in FT and they're not alone.

What is the "leaked deal" and its provenance? I missed that. Thanks.

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1504115012851413000

Would Ukraine still be able to join the EU?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

NYT says stalemate, Russia cannot take Kiyv and Odessa, so Russia is now digging into and fortifying the real estate that it has taken, and is blasting away at the cites from afar, that Ukraine cannot stop.*

*today to add to yesterday's destruction of the theater where 1,300 were taking refuge, it was a drama school were 400 were hiding

"Here are the latest developments in Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine has reached a stalemate after more than three weeks of fighting, with Russia making only marginal gains and increasingly targeting civilians, according to analysts and U.S. officials.

“Ukrainian forces have defeated the initial Russian campaign of this war,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based research institute, said in an analysis. Russians do not have the manpower or the equipment to seize Kyiv, the capital, or other major cities like Kharkiv and Odessa, the study concluded."

...

"With Mr. Putin determined to pummel Ukraine into submission, Russia’s failure to achieve its initial objectives could presage an even deadlier phase of the war defined by large-scale casualties."

...

"Ukraine continued to effectively hold its airspace, British defense ministry said, forcing Russia to largely rely on weapons launched from the "relative safety of Russian airspace."

Another story farther down in the updates is that Ukrainian opinion is not limited to hating Putin, it is also anti-Russian. They perceive that Russians support this. Whatever Russia holds will be very hard to govern absent mass deportation. And then there is the fleeing of young Russian professionals by the hundreds of thousands, many to Armenia and Georgia, perceiving that their escape window might close at any time.


https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/20/world/ukraine-russia-war

Seems more like the Russian will on most front wait out the mud season and launch a new offensive by late May. Seems prudent considering their inability to advance merely on the highways at the moment

I don’t know. All waiting does is allow the Ukrainians to fortify even more and give the west more time to send in more weapons (hopefully offensive weapons too). Also, the political environment in Russia isn’t going to get better over time. In the end, however, Russia may have no choice but to wait it out until May considering how abysmally they have performed thus far.

In fall 1941 the Soviet mud season was a nightmare for the Germans during Barbarossa. It was even worse then the winter because at least the roads were frozen and you could move vehicles along easier.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1505973168938307584

The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation refutes the information of the Ukrainian General Staff about the allegedly large-scale losses of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, during the special operation in Ukraine, the Russian Armed Forces lost 9861 people killed, 16153 people were injured.

Wait, the Russians are claiming this? Doesn’t Russia always report hilariously low casualties? If this is there number either it is a typo or they are allot worse off than we though.

I always throw out any Russia casualty estimates in the trash, it is disinformation. The Ukrainian numbers are a bit too high and the American ones are too low.

The US estimate is around 7k and Ukrainian one is at 14k, so averaging them out is around 10k Russian dead.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

T-72A. They started production in 1979, was replaced by the T-72B in 1985. The Russians are really using 40 year old tanks in front line combat?

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1506267117410267136?s=20&t=H8hOTS...

I'm not sure how much of an issue that is, as long as it works and is properly maintained. Some of the eqipment sent to Ukraine is decades old, too. Didn't Germany send stuff from former East Germany?

The US M1 Abrams tank was introduced in 1980 and is still widely in use.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1506988113939386372

Russia is running out of paratroopers and Spetsnaz, and thinks that they can still win the war by replacing them with conscripts and reserves. 

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The half a trillion in losses is pretty brutal especially as Ukraine's last GDP was only just over $150 billion. That's more than three years it cost them. Of course they'll get immense foreign aid and investment following this. Ideally Russia should pay reparations...maybe that could be a condition for lifting sanctions.

There is probably going to be a US, UK and EU funded Ukrainian rebuilding plan. It would take massive humanitarian investment to rebuild the county. It could end being like the Marshall Plan after WW2.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Oh god Zelensky please don’t. If he gives up 1 yard of Ukraine soil he’ll just be inviting Putin to try this again in the future and would effectively kill the UN charter which forbids the seizure of land via force

It is very easy to be full of bravado when you're not being shot at.

Zelensky will not be giving up any more Ukrainian territory. He is willing to make concessions in terms of the Russian annexation of Crimea and the Russian puppet states in the Donbass.

There will be no Russian land bridge in the South after the peace treaty.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

We’ve heard a ton of contradictory claims about the airbase and towns in the area, but the US usually hasn’t been so clear on what they believe the situation is.

https://www.twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1509553376417173508

The farther Kyiv and other cities get away from Russian artillery, the better.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Bruh moment.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1509754010160574467?s=20&t=MXD7z1s...

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1509752229900828673?s=20&t=fpvlIPru1FXv...

Come now doesn't Ukraine understand the "special military operation" is supposed to be in Ukraine not Russia.

The Ukrainians also attacked a Russian airbase in Millerovo with a missile strike.