Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Tintrlvr]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2022042201034&g=pol

Former PM Abe bizarrely compares Putin to warlords from the Sengoku era, saying he is (like a warlord) a “worshipper of power.” Abe said at a symposium that “it would be like asking Oda Nobunaga to respect human rights.”

Opposition CDP leader came back and said “It was Mr. Abe that met with this warlord 27 times and said ‘you and I are looking at the same future.’”

In the meantime Japan started to refer to the disputed Northern Islands as "illegally occupied by Russia" for the first time in 20 years.  That was the position of Japan since WWII but they dropped this wording when Putin came to power hoping to sweet-talk Putin into giving back these islands to Japan for compensation.   At this stage I guess Japan figures that the chances of that is out for a generation or two so they might as well go back to the old wording.

Based. The opposition is even more based.

Honestly surprising out of the CDP, who are really peacenik-y usually.

[Storr]

Lyman:
https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1517368138039500800

More from Lyman:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517495771096133633?s=20&t=D8wjdrW...

[Storr]

It will likely be claimed this was a hack, but the numbers are in line with what NATO/US sources are reporting/claiming.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1517387514415300619?s=20&t=3nfIo2tM...

[Logical]

I have also arrived to the same conclusion that the May 9th parade will likely be used as a platform to call for a mobilization and frame the war as existential for Russia.
https://twitter.com/RUSI_org/status/1517455390644084738

[Mopsus]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1517402211407568897
So Russia grand strategy (and other sources and Russia movements points to this being the idea) is to pull off a pincer movement via north and south. However, this is a flawed idea on Russia’s part as 1) a pincer movement relies on speed and Russia forces are not moving quickly and between the mud and urban fight that will take place there is no reason for the pace to pick up and 2) they don’t have the numerical advantages to pull such a move off

Still, steady Russian gains on the front lines are a worrying trend. I don’t know enough to say whether Ukrainians are just falling back to a more defensible position while bleeding the attackers dry, but I’d feel more optimistic about the future of the war if the Ukrainians were holding the line or making gains in some places.

[GoTfan]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2022042201034&g=pol

Former PM Abe bizarrely compares Putin to warlords from the Sengoku era, saying he is (like a warlord) a “worshipper of power.” Abe said at a symposium that “it would be like asking Oda Nobunaga to respect human rights.”

Opposition CDP leader came back and said “It was Mr. Abe that met with this warlord 27 times and said ‘you and I are looking at the same future.’”

In the meantime Japan started to refer to the disputed Northern Islands as "illegally occupied by Russia" for the first time in 20 years.  That was the position of Japan since WWII but they dropped this wording when Putin came to power hoping to sweet-talk Putin into giving back these islands to Japan for compensation.   At this stage I guess Japan figures that the chances of that is out for a generation or two so they might as well go back to the old wording.

Based. The opposition is even more based.

Honestly surprising out of the CDP, who are really peacenik-y usually.

[The Free North]

Seems Russia continues to probe, but not actually gain much ground.



https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1517287362924978176
https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1517286979049865216

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP and CPI for 2022 for key economies

2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%       +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%      +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.1%        +2.8%       +3.2%      +3.9%      +4.9%          +2.1%


2022 CPI
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.5%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%

Russia clearly getting hurt and hurt bad but the war and sanctions are clearly hitting the Western and allies economies as well, especially on the inflation front.  Eurozone impact seems to be the greatest.  Despite recent COVID-19 lockdowns the PRC seems to be the least impacted.  Japan's inflation finally heading upward which is what the Japanese Central Bank always wanted but I am not sure it is the internally generated inflation that it really wants and needs to push up internal demand.    This inflation is clearly hitting Japan's economic growth which is not what the Japanese Central bank had in mind.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1517402211407568897
So Russia grand strategy (and other sources and Russia movements points to this being the idea) is to pull off a pincer movement via north and south. However, this is a flawed idea on Russia’s part as 1) a pincer movement relies on speed and Russia forces are not moving quickly and between the mud and urban fight that will take place there is no reason for the pace to pick up and 2) they don’t have the numerical advantages to pull such a move off

Still, steady Russian gains on the front lines are a worrying trend. I don’t know enough to say whether Ukrainians are just falling back to a more defensible position while bleeding the attackers dry, but I’d feel more optimistic about the future of the war if the Ukrainians were holding the line or making gains in some places.

I wouldn’t worry too much about the gains as they seem to be marginal gains at the edges

[DINGO Joe]

This Jacksonville network really should consider firing their headline writer

'One of the worst experiences of my life’: Ukrainian missionary comes to Jacksonville

Wow, Jacksonville's even worse than I imagined.

[Mopsus]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1517402211407568897
So Russia grand strategy (and other sources and Russia movements points to this being the idea) is to pull off a pincer movement via north and south. However, this is a flawed idea on Russia’s part as 1) a pincer movement relies on speed and Russia forces are not moving quickly and between the mud and urban fight that will take place there is no reason for the pace to pick up and 2) they don’t have the numerical advantages to pull such a move off

Still, steady Russian gains on the front lines are a worrying trend. I don’t know enough to say whether Ukrainians are just falling back to a more defensible position while bleeding the attackers dry, but I’d feel more optimistic about the future of the war if the Ukrainians were holding the line or making gains in some places.

I wouldn’t worry too much about the gains as they seem to be marginal gains at the edges

How long does it take for marginal gains to add up to major gains though? Especially considering that Ukrainian-controlled Donetsk doesn't have any major cities for them to fortify themselves in.

[DINGO Joe]

Lyman:
https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1517368138039500800

More from Lyman:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517495771096133633?s=20&t=D8wjdrW...

Ukraine's goal in war--Blow Up all Russian military equipment

Russia's goal in war--blow up every hospital

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah the Russians are doing better now. At this rate, they probably will capture the rest of Donbas by July, but that’s if they continue this momentum.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Yeah the Russians are doing better now. At this rate, they probably will capture the rest of Donbas by July, but that’s if they continue this momentum.

Now we know the Russians really are screwed 😉

[It’s so Joever]

Yeah the Russians are doing better now. At this rate, they probably will capture the rest of Donbas by July, but that’s if they continue this momentum.

Now we know the Russians really are screwed 😉

Given my prediction history…

[Middle-aged Europe]

Der Spiegel has an English-language article that may be of interest for some:

Manuela Schwesig Draws Ire for Role in Nord Stream 2 Pipeline

Internal papers document the influence the Nord Stream 2 pipeline company exerted on the government of the state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. They raise a number of questions about state Governor Manuela Schwesig: Was she the willing enforcer of Russian interests?

https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/german-governor-manuela-schwesig-draws-ire-for-role-in-nord-stream-2-pipeline-a-509fecdc-6f33-4e33-ac15-87d368238b15

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Latvia is based! https://www.leta.lv/eng/home/important/B9DDEAD2-8333-442F-8891-9DEF94E1534B/

[Person Man]

This Jacksonville network really should consider firing their headline writer

'One of the worst experiences of my life’: Ukrainian missionary comes to Jacksonville

Wow, Jacksonville's even worse than I imagined.

Now you know why I left.

[Person Man]

Yeah the Russians are doing better now. At this rate, they probably will capture the rest of Donbas by July, but that’s if they continue this momentum.

At what, at the expense of another 10000 guys on top of the 21000 they already claimed to have lost? Can they even fight until July?

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507077215764481

Again, not knowing anything about military weapons and tactics.  It seems that between this and things like the Phoenix they're creating a whole different Ukraine Army.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Netherlands will cease using all Russian gas and coal by the end of the year.

Yeah this is going to devestate Russia's economy in an irreversible way. It's not like all this business would return if they pulled out tomorrow and all sanctions were lifted.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1517547263916412928

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Interesting how China is significantly less unbalanced than Russia.

It’s fun that Compucomp is actually in the minority among Chinese people living in China, much less expats.

[American2020]

According to Carlos Latuff

https://twitter.com/AbedCharef/status/1517328892167606273

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/josep33126/status/1517631590763053057