Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

So essentially Putin just did the warfare equivalent of Michael Scott declaring bankruptcy in Mariupol and is sending exhausted and shellshocked troops from there out to reinforce other areas?

[Storr]

Trying a large scale encirclement strategy with these losses is.....something. 25% of 150k (the size of initial Russian invasion force) is 37,500 wounded or killed.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1517256878719438848?s=20&t=Qu14MwUBQWZsyW...

[Storr]

So far Russia has already had 12 confirmed Ka-52 attack helicopter losses. This would be the 13th. Russia started with around 130 total.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1517144308016500738?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XSGVUi...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517222241272008704?s=20&t=ZMkdV1i...

You mean in their invasion or in their army?

The whole Russian army has around 130 Ka-52s.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Extremely uncomfortable and unnatural pose by Putin during the entire meeting with Shoygu. Suggests that reports of disability or a stroke may be credible
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517046534113792001

Putin may have Parkinson's disease, Hitler also had it. Hitler had noticeable tremors in his last few years.

This Video Exposes Hitler's Secret Illness
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w3nsAaOpq4

[Frodo]

For comparison:

This is first interview since he became president.

[NOVA Green]

Nobody talking or even mentioned the reports of mass graves from outside of Mariupol  

A series of satellite images show what appears to be a growing mass grave site on the outskirts of Mariupol, the southern port city where Ukrainian officials say tens of thousands have been killed during a two-month long siege by Russian forces.

An analysis of the images by The New York Times shows approximately 300 pits dug close to a cemetery in Manhush, a village about nine miles west of Mariupol. The holes were dug over two weeks between March and April, while Russian forces were in control of the town, according to a Times analysis.

The first rows of pits appeared in images captured between March 23 and March 26. Satellite images captured two weeks later, on April 6, show a dramatic expansion of the site, with more than 200 freshly dug holes encompassing nearly an acre of land. Each pit shows dimensions of about 6 by 10 feet.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/21/world/ukraine-russia-war-news/satellite-images-appear-to-show-nearly-300-graves-on-the-outskirts-of-mariupol?smid=url-copy

[NOVA Green]

So looks like Ukraine is getting (5) new BTGs, courtesy of military hardware from Uncle Sam?

Might be reading this wrong, if so please correct Atlas fact checkers and military gurus...

The Pentagon is sending an additional $800 million in defense aid to Ukraine that effectively will create five new Ukrainian artillery battalions, and includes more than 120 new drones built specifically for use by Ukraine’s forces. Officials made the announcement in a statement sent to reporters Thursday morning.

Also, looks like Stuttgart is the "hub".

Representatives from 14 nations, including Ukraine, have posted liaison officers to a task force in Stuttgart that takes requests from the government in Kyiv and arranges for weapons and supplies from different countries to be delivered, said one of the officials, who was not authorized to speak publicly about the effort to arm Ukraine against Russia.

The existence of the task force, called European Command Control Center Ukraine, has not previously been disclosed.

Now originally it sounded like Ukraine was going to get (18) total 155 mm Howitzers, but turns out the number is actually 18 x 5.

Five new Ukrainian artillery battalions will be outfitted, each with 18 guns and nearly 37,000 rounds. Weapons of this type can generally fire three to five times per minute, according to military documents, striking targets about 25 miles away with 90-pound shells.

The howitzers, which have to be towed into position and then can be moved again after firing, are able to maintain a steady stream of fire that can be used to force Russian forces to duck into trenches while Ukrainian infantry troops advance.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/21/world/europe/us-weapons-ukraine.html?smid=url-copy

Either way for all of you "gnashing at the teeth" regarding the US Gvt NOT providing any and all weapons available to the Ukrainian gvt, something to put in your pipe and smoke.

This is NOT an insignificant donation and could easily decimate huge swathes of Russian armored vehicles and convoys from major distances.

Assuming these capabilities are tied to remote targeting, could easily take our Russian heavily artillery units at the same level of distance.

For everybody here pining about "why the US wasn't giving Ukraine F-15s" just a few short weeks ago, step back and chill.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So far Russia has already had 12 confirmed Ka-52 attack helicopter losses. This would be the 13th. Russia started with around 130 total.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1517144308016500738?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XSGVUi...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517222241272008704?s=20&t=ZMkdV1i...

You mean in their invasion or in their army?

The whole Russian army has around 130 Ka-52s.

Also each one has an estimate cost of about $15 million. Almost $200 million down the drain.

[NOVA Green]

So far Russia has already had 12 confirmed Ka-52 attack helicopter losses. This would be the 13th. Russia started with around 130 total.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1517144308016500738?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XSGVUi...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517222241272008704?s=20&t=ZMkdV1i...

You mean in their invasion or in their army?

The whole Russian army has around 130 Ka-52s.

Also each one has an estimate cost of about $15 million. Almost $200 million down the drain.

Russia losing a lot more expensive military hardware with little chance of replacements since their computer chipset replacement is basically shut down.

Russia can't even manufacture cars anymore, let alone tanks, aircraft and missiles.

They are basically blowing their load in this war in Ukraine, and whatever Chinese chipset replacements they might hypothetically receive from China, will not be compatible from an R&D Design and QC perspective.

Russia has only one semiconductor "Fab", which is basically an archaic facility somewhere a few miles outside of Moscow, which can't really produce anything of interest to the "War Machine".

Sure--- most of Atlas "Hawks" might bag on sanctions, but reality is that Russian "Import-Substitution" circa 1950s and 1960s policies won't work for the Defense Industry.

Granted, this might not make the overwhelming difference within the context of the Russian Invasion and Occupation of Ukraine 2.0, but still anything that starves their ability to enhance their war machine is surely a positive development.

Might perhaps be excessive NOVA GREEN style to embed youtube videos into Atlas Posts, but considering many members and content consumers have critiqued my posting style over years as "Giant Walls of Text".

Time to throw a track in the mix from the Gen-X Pirate Radio Underground.

Quite possibly one of the best versions of War Pigs from Sabbath within context of the current horrors, although naturally I tend to be more prone to a "Black & Red", but still pretty clear that this is representative of a certain part of the current Russian barbarism currently inflicted upon Ukraine.

[rc18]

Interesting, the USAF have rapidly developed a new Switchblade-like loitering drone for the Ukrainians to use.

I'd guess designed for taking out artillery, with long range like the Switchblade 600 but maybe a simpler and easier to mass-produce warhead. You don't need a tandem if you aren't using it against MBTs.

More info on this. So it has a long 6+ hrs flight time, is night-capable with thermal imaging, and is designed against medium armoured targets (so roughly anything below an MBT in protection). Wasn't a bad guess...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517331034639065088?s=20&t=ANlxN0M...

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/04/21/mystery-drone-air-force-new-weapon-ukraine-00026970

[GoTfan]

So far Russia has already had 12 confirmed Ka-52 attack helicopter losses. This would be the 13th. Russia started with around 130 total.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1517144308016500738?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XSGVUi...
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517222241272008704?s=20&t=ZMkdV1i...

You mean in their invasion or in their army?

The whole Russian army has around 130 Ka-52s.

Also each one has an estimate cost of about $15 million. Almost $200 million down the drain.

Again, Lazerpig Loop:

Russia stronk memes->Russian tech is better than Western tech because (insert reason here)->War happens, Russian stuff turns out to suck->People forget about war->Repeat.

[Yoda]

Does Ukrainian Armed Forces have the capability of striking that deep into Russia? Or is the consensus that this was sabotage?

I'd say there's no way they do, b/c if they did, they would have been striking the airports/air fields russia launches it's fighters and bombers from for the past 2 months. Which is why they badly need long-range artillery, and I'm really confused as to why they don't have it yet. One thing that would really help Ukraine "win" this war is if they could strike russian assets 200 or so miles over the border, like fighters/bombers and russian artillery/cruise missile locations.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Extremely uncomfortable and unnatural pose by Putin during the entire meeting with Shoygu. Suggests that reports of disability or a stroke may be credible
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517046534113792001

Putin may have Parkinson's disease, Hitler also had it. Hitler had noticeable tremors in his last few years.

This Video Exposes Hitler's Secret Illness
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0w3nsAaOpq4

We don’t know that for sure. We do know he was an incredibly stressed methhead by the end of his life, and that provides sufficient explanation for his tremors.

[Woody]

Borova pocket gone. Russians are now shelling Lyman heavily, likely attacking it soon. It's an important transportation hub towards Slovyansk and the headquarters of the Donetsk Railway.

In Southern Donetsk they're making a push now that Mariupol is gone:

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1517292323448705024?cxt=HHwWgMCy-Yj...

[Woody]

Lyman:
https://twitter.com/girkingirkin/status/1517368138039500800

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The fact it took Russia so much effort to take Mariupol is not at all a good sign for its prospects in a protacted war, especially since the West seems to be giving Ukraine all the weapons it needs to remain in the fight. This feels like a tactical phyrric victory for Russia.

[CumbrianLefty]

For comparison:

This is first interview since he became president.

Even the contrast with when this war kicked off is pretty obvious.

[jaichind]

[CumbrianLefty]

Interesting how China is significantly less unbalanced than Russia.

[jaichind]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2022042201034&g=pol

Former PM Abe bizarrely compares Putin to warlords from the Sengoku era, saying he is (like a warlord) a “worshipper of power.” Abe said at a symposium that “it would be like asking Oda Nobunaga to respect human rights.”

Opposition CDP leader came back and said “It was Mr. Abe that met with this warlord 27 times and said ‘you and I are looking at the same future.’”

In the meantime Japan started to refer to the disputed Northern Islands as "illegally occupied by Russia" for the first time in 20 years.  That was the position of Japan since WWII but they dropped this wording when Putin came to power hoping to sweet-talk Putin into giving back these islands to Japan for compensation.   At this stage I guess Japan figures that the chances of that is out for a generation or two so they might as well go back to the old wording.

[Person Man]

https://www.jiji.com/sp/article?k=2022042201034&g=pol

Former PM Abe bizarrely compares Putin to warlords from the Sengoku era, saying he is (like a warlord) a “worshipper of power.” Abe said at a symposium that “it would be like asking Oda Nobunaga to respect human rights.”

Opposition CDP leader came back and said “It was Mr. Abe that met with this warlord 27 times and said ‘you and I are looking at the same future.’”

In the meantime Japan started to refer to the disputed Northern Islands as "illegally occupied by Russia" for the first time in 20 years.  That was the position of Japan since WWII but they dropped this wording when Putin came to power hoping to sweet-talk Putin into giving back these islands to Japan for compensation.   At this stage I guess Japan figures that the chances of that is out for a generation or two so they might as well go back to the old wording.

Based. The opposition is even more based.

[jaichind]

Interesting how China is significantly less unbalanced than Russia.

Rally around the flag.  I am sure a similar survey in 2002-2003 USA would look very different from a survey in 2010.   

[Person Man]

Interesting how China is significantly less unbalanced than Russia.

Rally around the flag.  I am sure a similar survey in 2002-2003 USA would look very different from a survey in 2010.   

Possible. And China doesn't have thousands of nukes lying around.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1517402211407568897
So Russia grand strategy (and other sources and Russia movements points to this being the idea) is to pull off a pincer movement via north and south. However, this is a flawed idea on Russia’s part as 1) a pincer movement relies on speed and Russia forces are not moving quickly and between the mud and urban fight that will take place there is no reason for the pace to pick up and 2) they don’t have the numerical advantages to pull such a move off

[Silent Hunter]

Ukrainian sabotage is a distinct possibility. I'd imagine it is pretty hard to tell a Ukrainian from a Russian.