Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[The Free North]

1) Putin's speech only provides more evidence that the once KGB agent now oversees a pseudo-fascist state.

2) The points about Lenin are *technically* not wrong, but if Russia wanted to grief Soviet era border malpractice, the time to do that was likely as the union was dissolving, not 30 years later when Ukraine has been a fully independent and fully sovereign state for far too long to make their actions look justifiable.

3) Regardless of if Ukraine was a Soviet invention or not, Russia in a political, economic, and religious sense was 'invented' by princes of the Kievan Rus' who conquered and settled the lands north of what is now the capital of Ukraine. So who really created who?

[The Free North]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

[The Free North]

Reminder: in 2002 Putin said regarding Ukraine's Nato membership that "the decision is to be taken by NATO & Ukraine. It is a matter for those two partners".

https://twitter.com/AVindman/status/1495423040909365249
https://twitter.com/ValoisDuBins/status/1495583736670613507

It was before US showed in Iraq and Libya that you can sew chaos and deaths to millions, and nobody including people of Finland will care, if you're strong enough,. You set the precedent...

'The US made a horrific foreign policy decision 20 years ago' isn't a casus belli or a moral justification for starting your own war.

[The Free North]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

There's no evidence of A and C, and insufficient evidence of B. I think (this is slightly oversimplifying it but whatevs) the reason he's doing it is that he thinks this is the best opening he'll get and he wants to be remembered as the man who stopped NATO's eastward expansion right in its tracks. And he doesn't trust the West's word either. So he'll remake the situation here, right then and now. He can then negotiate from a position of strength.

Certainly. I watched all of his speech the other day. Ukraine is personal to him. He's clearly well read too, at least in broad stereotypes. He conveyed a clear idea of what Russia is and perhaps what he feels it 'needs' to be going forward. Its more than a security issue. Still, Nato expansion to his borders is not acceptable. Ukraine has drifted. Perhaps it was all inevitable, I just wonder if there was anything to justify the timing. Russian irredentism has always been there post 1991.

Thoughts with the people of Ukraine. Its hard to think of a country that has suffered as much in the past 100 years. They deserve better.

[The Free North]

I find myself coming back to the same question: Why now?

Has public opinion in Ukraine shifted to be more pro western?

Has the situation in the east devolved enough that Russia needs to step in?

Are things at home that bad?

The reason Putin did what he did in 2014/2015 with Donetsk and Luhansk was that he wanted Donetsk and Luhansk to influence Ukrainian foreign policy - in particular, to have an effective veto over Ukraine further integrating with the west, via a federal structure stemming from the Minsk agreeement. And since Donetsk and Luhansk are Russian puppet states, that would have meant that Putin in effect could veto that.

However, it became clear that Ukraine was not going to allow its policies to be vetoed by the self-proclaimed Donetsk/Luhansk "People's Republics." And the problem for Putin was also that Crimea and large parts of Donetsk/Luhansk Oblasts were out of Ukrainian control, meaning that those areas (the most pro-Russian areas of Ukraine) no longer were sending representatives to the Ukrainian parliament etc and were no longer influencing Ukrainian policy. So the absence of Crimea especially made the part of Ukraine that was left more pro-western overall.

It would be as though you had Russia come in and annex Texas. That would make America more pro-democrats overall and shift the country to the left.

So this was not working for Putin, and in fact in some ways was making things worse for Russian influence over Ukranian policy. So the only way he can now reassert Russian influence over Ukranian policy is by some sort of regime change, which requires an invasion and war.

Interesting points, thank you.

[The Free North]

Ukraine is a cursed nation. You heart has to bleed for it.

[The Free North]

This is horrifying, I'm so scared. We must now all support the Ukrainian Army and people in their fight for freedom.

Spare us the pearl clutching. Why are you scared? You're not in Ukraine. This war will not touch the USA. Gas prices will go up a bit, that's all. You're really that upset that the grand American ploy to surround and contain Russia has failed?

Again, it's amazing that on a forum that is so politically aware, the vast majority drink the Kool-Aid and accept the Western "freedom and democracy" propaganda as the inalienable truth.

I'm not sure what your angle is here? Putin has launched an offensive and illegal war that has violated the territorial sovereignty of another nation. This is very much against what the US and the West stands for and while we have not always been true to that, the actions we've seen tonight are a tragedy and nothing more.

[The Free North]

How will China respond?

They've been tepid in their response so far.

[The Free North]

How will China respond?

They've been tepid in their response so far.

They are watching and waiting to see how the world responds to Putin's aggression, as what happens in Ukraine will determine their course of action on Taiwan.  If we are tepid and timid in responding to Putin, it will encourage the Chinese Communists in their bid to take that island nation.  

The only difference is that the US navy is active in the straights between China and Taiwan.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1496472039108009987

Ethnic minorities? As in Russians?

I'm a bit skeptical of that.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/status/1496472039108009987

Ethnic minorities? As in Russians?

I'm a bit skeptical of that.

Tatars presumably.

There is a sizable Tatar population in Russia and only a handful in Ukraine. I hope i'm right here, but it seems like an odd thing to do. Journalists, sure, but ethnic/religious groups. Why?

[The Free North]

Crazy that we can watch a war unfold on youtube while a senator live tweets intelligence from DC.

[The Free North]

As pointed out on Sky News just now: you cant demilitarize a country, as Putin as said he will do, without effectively overthrowing the government.

[The Free North]

Does Ukraine have any sort of WMD’s or no

There were some left over from the Soviet era but I believe Russia took them back post '91.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/markmackinnon/status/1496707970389925890

Thats an incredibly vague statement.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1496709533661646850

OK, this is bad, if true (needs confirmation). Russia may be attacking Moldova also, not just Ukraine.

I saw a report of this 5-10 minutes ago but assumed it must be a mistake, but this is 2nd report I saw.

If it is true, WHAT THE HELL ?? MOLDOVA ??

Transnistria is plurality Russian and small Russian forces (I believe) have been stationed there.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1496708133456125954

A report of some sort of Ukrainian victory defending Kiev's airport (Boryspil airport). From an obvious pro-Ukrainian source, might not be objective.

Would be massive if true. Russia could only get to Kiev by conventional means then.

[The Free North]

I would sincerely like to know how the US intel got this so right and got Afghanistan so wrong... Is it different people? Did Biden clean house or something?

The Russian army is modern, well coordinated, and hackable. The Taliban is none of that. Afghanistan is a century behind the world. Much easier to get intelligence on navy and tank movements when the enemy actually has a navy and tanks.

[The Free North]

Just hopped on snapchat (i know) and took a look at the map and as of 20 mins ago the seaside in Odesa looks calm and there are no troops/landings there. Take it FWIW.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/MarthaRaddatz/status/1496695197241073666

A bit dramatic. There has been a war going on for 7 years already.

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1496871309472669696

You have to wonder why the Ukrainian govt didn't mine key bridges and have explosives' ready to go in this case. Civilians are going to use a bridge in a warzone anyways.

[The Free North]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

[The Free North]

Part of me is convinced that if this invasion fails Putin is done.

The Russian military, so lauded at home and abroad would have been done in by a vastly inferior, although well armed, force. The stock market has tanked, the ruble is worthless. sure energy prices are up but that's little cost for the international embarrassment. The war is not popular as is.

Fails according to what standards? it's clear there will be territorial gains, but Putin didn't indicate any clear goals here

The Ukranians fend off the invasion and halt regime change?

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1496890176207044612

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/status/1496893286522437635


Invading a fallout zone doesnt seem to be the brightest idea.