Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1517092063845752832
Russia forces are too exhausted to storm the steel plant, Mariupol might not fall after all

Siege tactics != abandoning the offensive, although it slows the deployment of troops from Mariupol to the rest of the Donbas.

Yesterday, there were Ukrainian reports of soldiers breaking out of the Primorsky district and reaching the other troops in Azovstal. That would indicate they have finally been reduced to one “pocket” of territory around the factory, but the poor/scant reporting about Primorsky casts a little bit of doubt over this new development (I’ll wait for the ISW update).

This makes a lot of sense.

The plant is a literal ant hill with an extensive tunnel network, which are now probably makeshift bunkers.

I hope Azov lets the civilians leave, because if this draws out, count on more TU-22 sorties with 3-5 ton bunker busters.

Also, apparently Azov has received orders to execute soldiers who are looking to surrender. (Note this is from a Russian source, so season with some salt.)

If this were the Marines or another proper UA military unit, I would be very skeptical, but when it comes to Azov, not letting soldiers surrender does seem within the realms of possibility.

https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1516778601026306057


On another note, RU Tankers in Mariupol are now preforming the most important part of the operation: doing donuts.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1517084190906458112

That is really not very dignified. This is not a video game. I know I should not ask this, but is Russian popular culture that really low brow?

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1517092063845752832
Russia forces are too exhausted to storm the steel plant, Mariupol might not fall after all

Siege tactics != abandoning the offensive, although it slows the deployment of troops from Mariupol to the rest of the Donbas.

Yesterday, there were Ukrainian reports of soldiers breaking out of the Primorsky district and reaching the other troops in Azovstal. That would indicate they have finally been reduced to one “pocket” of territory around the factory, but the poor/scant reporting about Primorsky casts a little bit of doubt over this new development (I’ll wait for the ISW update).

This makes a lot of sense.

The plant is a literal ant hill with an extensive tunnel network, which are now probably makeshift bunkers.

I hope Azov lets the civilians leave, because if this draws out, count on more TU-22 sorties with 3-5 ton bunker busters.

Also, apparently Azov has received orders to execute soldiers who are looking to surrender. (Note this is from a Russian source, so season with some salt.)

If this were the Marines or another proper UA military unit, I would be very skeptical, but when it comes to Azov, not letting soldiers surrender does seem within the realms of possibility.

https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1516778601026306057


On another note, RU Tankers in Mariupol are now preforming the most important part of the operation: doing donuts.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1517084190906458112

That is really not very dignified. This is not a video game. I know I should not ask this, but is Russian popular culture that really low brow?

They're a retarded wolf pack. This is expected behavior.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I don't shed any tears about the Azov Battalion being trapped in the Azovstal steel-mill tbh. Serves them well and as soon as they're gone it also removes one of Russia's main arguments for "denazification". Too bad for the 36th Naval Infantry Brigade though.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1517092063845752832
Russia forces are too exhausted to storm the steel plant, Mariupol might not fall after all

Siege tactics != abandoning the offensive, although it slows the deployment of troops from Mariupol to the rest of the Donbas.

Yesterday, there were Ukrainian reports of soldiers breaking out of the Primorsky district and reaching the other troops in Azovstal. That would indicate they have finally been reduced to one “pocket” of territory around the factory, but the poor/scant reporting about Primorsky casts a little bit of doubt over this new development (I’ll wait for the ISW update).

This makes a lot of sense.

The plant is a literal ant hill with an extensive tunnel network, which are now probably makeshift bunkers.

I hope Azov lets the civilians leave, because if this draws out, count on more TU-22 sorties with 3-5 ton bunker busters.

Also, apparently Azov has received orders to execute soldiers who are looking to surrender. (Note this is from a Russian source, so season with some salt.)

If this were the Marines or another proper UA military unit, I would be very skeptical, but when it comes to Azov, not letting soldiers surrender does seem within the realms of possibility.

https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1516778601026306057
On another note, RU Tankers in Mariupol are now preforming the most important part of the operation: doing donuts.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1517084190906458112

That is really not very dignified. This is not a video game. I know I should not ask this, but is Russian popular culture that really low brow?

A lot of military propaganda is like this. Rock music + inefficient stunts (and in some cases, actual combat footage), etc.

I’m reminded of the Royal Navy video where they test jetpacks (not very useful at all, but they look cool). I guess it’s good for recruiters.

[rc18]

Interesting, the USAF have rapidly developed a new Switchblade-like loitering drone for the Ukrainians to use.

I'd guess designed for taking out artillery, with long range like the Switchblade 600 but maybe a simpler and easier to mass-produce warhead. You don't need a tandem if you aren't using it against MBTs.

https://twitter.com/dave_brown24/status/1517152964355403777?s=20&t=3F1uFg_Vn...

https://twitter.com/beverstine/status/1517155250011983878?s=20&t=3F1uFg_VnVe...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1517165874372825092

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Ukraine has shot down >10% of Russia's Ka-52 fleet at this point.

[Splash]

Sabotage or coincidence?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517187794527043585

[Person Man]

Sabotage or coincidence?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517187794527043585

Goodness those fumes are DARK.

[Omega21]

So I will call it at this point, Mariupol has fallen.

Let us hope this is the last major Ukrainian city to suffer a similar fate.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1517178593914376193

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

So I will call it at this point, Mariupol has fallen.

Let us hope this is the last major Ukrainian city to suffer a similar fate.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1517178593914376193

Its loss has been pretty close to a forgone conclusion for a long time, but taking the highest point in the city does not mean taking all of the city. Siege tactics could mean the resistance around Azovstal lasts for some time yet.

We’ve only seen footage/claims of capture for under half of the ships and boats Ukraine was thought to have deployed to this area. This isn’t a particularly strong indicator, but it does suggest Russia either hasn’t got all of their vessels or is reluctant to take pictures because they are close to the front lines.

[Omega21]

Its loss has been pretty close to a forgone conclusion for a long time, but taking the highest point in the city does not mean taking all of the city. Siege tactics could mean the resistance around Azovstal lasts for some time yet.

We’ve only seen footage/claims of capture for under half of the ships and boats Ukraine was thought to have deployed to this area. This isn’t a particularly strong indicator, but it does suggest Russia either hasn’t got all of their vessels or is reluctant to take pictures because they are close to the front lines.

Of course, the flag is just symbolism.

However, with Russian tanks doing donuts in downtown, school starting with a Russian curriculum, the port & all administration buildings flying Russian flags, it is safe to call it over.

Point being, Azov is no longer able to contest Russians for any area outside their factory. They peek out - shot. They run - shot.

As for the boats, half of them may have been scuttled on time, similar to the UA flagship.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

So I will call it at this point, Mariupol has fallen.

Let us hope this is the last major Ukrainian city to suffer a similar fate.

I don't know if its the election-like tone, but this post gave me Wasserman vibes.

DISCLAIMER: FAKE TWEET & FAKE PICTURE

[Storr]

So I will call it at this point, Mariupol has fallen.

Let us hope this is the last major Ukrainian city to suffer a similar fate.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1517178593914376193

I guess, but they're still taking losses there.

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1517213376455360512?s=20&t=px0Ohw9zBnAk...

[Storr]

Sabotage or coincidence?

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1517187794527043585

Video of the fire in Tver (160km NW of Moscow).

Definitely a weird coincidence if not sabotage or a missle strike. But where there's an ongoing war, it always increases the likelihood of accidents happening.

https://twitter.com/spook_info/status/1517150043190427650?s=20&t=px0Ohw9zBnA...

[kingcharlesvii]

Does Ukrainian Armed Forces have the capability of striking that deep into Russia? Or is the consensus that this was sabotage?

[Storr]

Does Ukrainian Armed Forces have the capability of striking that deep into Russia? Or is the consensus that this was sabotage?

Afaik, they don't. But of course there is the possibility that they somehow have gained that capability (from NATO presumably).

[Storr]

Don't worry Vyacheslav, Russia will have the Northern Caucasus and Siberia "taken" next.

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1517049883861135361?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XS...

[Omega21]

So I will call it at this point, Mariupol has fallen.

Let us hope this is the last major Ukrainian city to suffer a similar fate.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1517178593914376193

I guess, but they're still taking losses there.

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1517213376455360512?s=20&t=px0Ohw9zBnAk...

Just a very well placed mine

https://twitter.com/galitglockmn/status/1517227263971975169

[Storr]

So far Russia has already had 12 confirmed Ka-52 attack helicopter losses. This would be the 13th. Russia started with around 130 total.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1517144308016500738?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XSGVUi...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517222241272008704?s=20&t=ZMkdV1i...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Its loss has been pretty close to a forgone conclusion for a long time, but taking the highest point in the city does not mean taking all of the city. Siege tactics could mean the resistance around Azovstal lasts for some time yet.

We’ve only seen footage/claims of capture for under half of the ships and boats Ukraine was thought to have deployed to this area. This isn’t a particularly strong indicator, but it does suggest Russia either hasn’t got all of their vessels or is reluctant to take pictures because they are close to the front lines.

Of course, the flag is just symbolism.

However, with Russian tanks doing donuts in downtown, school starting with a Russian curriculum, the port & all administration buildings flying Russian flags, it is safe to call it over.

Point being, Azov is no longer able to contest Russians for any area outside their factory. They peek out - shot. They run - shot.

As for the boats, half of them may have been scuttled on time, similar to the UA flagship.

Even the scuttled one tend to have pictures.

[2952-0-0]

Does Ukrainian Armed Forces have the capability of striking that deep into Russia? Or is the consensus that this was sabotage?

Afaik, they don't. But of course there is the possibility that they somehow have gained that capability (from NATO presumably).

Methinks the manage of the missile research institute had pocketed lots of government funding, and he was tipped off that Putin was coming for him, so he burned down the building to destroy the evidence.

[Person Man]

So far Russia has already had 12 confirmed Ka-52 attack helicopter losses. This would be the 13th. Russia started with around 130 total.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1517144308016500738?s=20&t=3Nm6g3XSGVUi...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1517222241272008704?s=20&t=ZMkdV1i...

You mean in their invasion or in their army?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Does Ukrainian Armed Forces have the capability of striking that deep into Russia? Or is the consensus that this was sabotage?

Afaik, they don't. But of course there is the possibility that they somehow have gained that capability (from NATO presumably).

The supply of long-range tactical missiles is a pretty remote possibility given their stance on old fighter jets.

[NOVA Green]

Does Ukrainian Armed Forces have the capability of striking that deep into Russia? Or is the consensus that this was sabotage?

Afaik, they don't. But of course there is the possibility that they somehow have gained that capability (from NATO presumably).

The supply of long-range tactical missiles is a pretty remote possibility given their stance on old fighter jets.

Honestly the most obvious answer is most likely the correct one in this case.

Lack of adequate safety standards, improper storage of fuel and chemical components, decrepit life safety systems (LSS) designed to quickly detect and suppress any incident, etc...

"Just another industrial accident" seems the most plausible, since presumably workers at the facility would have been extensively screened and monitored for loyalty to the Russian State.