Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[DaleCooper]

Lol Snowden

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516932980694040577?s=20&t=IiL2giwjR-nV6LLS4D1QyQ

Hey, at least Snowden admitted that he was wrong and completely uninformed. So many people that were blatantly wrong for weeks on end to the point of humiliation chose to simply pretend they had been right the whole time.

[NOVA Green]

Russian soldiers are going to be winning so many Darwin awards -if they survive their radiation poisoning long enough to receive them, that is:

Russian soldiers accused of stealing radioactive ‘souvenirs’ from Chernobyl

If true this takes Russian Troops looting to a completely new level.

Black Markets in Belarus from Russian Soldiers looting everything from Washing Machines, Electronics, and Jewelry retreating from the Kyiv Front.

Other reported, but unverified stories about incidents of Russian troops taking "Gold Teeth fillings" from dead Ukrainians.

Naturally many reported incidents and filmed live about Russian soldiers looting food, fuel, and similar items, in many cases because their supply lines weren't catching up.

Starting to really get to a point where it seems like the average Russian Soldier somehow justifies their atrocities and that perhaps it is simply a minority of Russian soldiers who are challenging what appears to be a military culture.

Perhaps, might be a bit better if the Russian Military was more "Conscript" and less "Professional", like it used to be.

Tend to have my beer glass more half-full than empty, but really starting to lose faith in the Russian People to be able to reject the propaganda shoved down their throats, even as their body bags come home in greater numbers.

When even parents of the Russian soldiers fighting and have died are so blind...

When even Russian Soldiers fighting on the "front lines" are getting "corrected" by their parents or grandparents about the "correct party line", really makes me sad and depressed, since this is a very hard wall to crack, even within mixed populations over decades and even a century.

[Cashew]

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1516796704816832512?s=20&t=5MSCZfbjG8r8...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There are a variety of steps in applying to the EU. One of them is candidate responds to questionnaire. I think Ukraine might be the fastest ever at 9 days for that step. Georgia and Moldova have taken over a month already like everyone else. Of the countries on this page, Croatia's 3 months is the second shortest.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Potential_enlargement_of_the_European_Union

[NOVA Green]

Russia now banning Gay love Movie involving fighter pilots "Firebird".

Sounds like a pretty cool flick, and if Russia is banning it naturally attracts even more curiosity for many including myself who don't normally follow "European Indie Movie Scene".

It was only a year ago that the 34-year-old rented a small cinema in the city to screen the cold war love story Firebird for his family and friends. In this stirring British-Estonian production, Zagorodnii, who has the looks of a 1940s matinee idol, stars as Roman, a soon-to-be-married fighter pilot who falls for a young conscript, Sergey, played by Britain’s Tom Prior, after they meet at a military base in Soviet-occupied 1970s Estonia. Based on the autobiography of the late Sergey Fetisov, Firebird might resemble any tale of forbidden desire – except that Sergey and Roman face more than simply scandal should their relationship be discovered. The Soviet-era setting lends the film a distinctive thriller element: think of it as The Love Lives of Others.

That memory calls to mind one of the film’s more irreverent moments: a cut from Sergey and Roman in the throes of passion to a pair of fighter jets whooshing overhead, which puts a knowing spin on the old, sexually suggestive image of a train thundering into a tunnel. “We had more discussions over that than anything,” laughs Rebane. “A German critic who saw an early version told us, ‘I love the film but this shot kills it.’ But I wanted Firebird to seem as though it was made in the 1970s rather than now.”

Remarkably for a film with such overtly gay content, several exterior scenes were filmed in Moscow. “An amazing local production company paid the right people and somehow made that happen,” says Prior. “We still don’t fully understand.” Even more surprising was the picture’s acceptance last year by the city’s film festival, though only the first of its scheduled screenings went ahead. “After that,” adds Prior, “there was a complaint about it being ‘homosexual propaganda’. We had 93 press articles written about it, all but one of which were negative. One headline translated as, ‘An Estonian, a Brit and a Ukrainian shame Moscow.’ Another called the film ‘a punch in the face of the Russian soldier’. It wasn’t technically banned but all tickets were cancelled. The film played to an empty auditorium

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2022/apr/21/film-putin-firebird-gay-love-story-fighter-pilots-dogfights-desire-moscow-russian

Free Trailer Clip...

[Woody]

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ukraine-russia-putin-news-04-20-22/h_c8b98e7230727754d2d5ebfee9dfc76b

CNN is reporting that central Rubizhne has fallen, other sources are claiming that the city has been completely taken over.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1516934956844470281?cxt=HHwWksCyocyTno0qAA...
In other news, Putin has ordered his forces to not storm Azovstal, but impose a siege on it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is it just me or does Scholz come off as pretty detestable right now?

Every other country seems to be pulling its weight but the Germans have been dragging their feet for weeks. Is he a Putin sympathizer? Afraid of escalation? What is the political calculus here....

It's largely a combination of two things.

First, Olaf Scholz is not good at making decisions and prefers not to make them if it is preventable. Or at least he has serious issues communicating things in a proper way. It is apparent that he doesn't really like to explain himself publicly or canvass for support for his policies.

I fear there's not really much more to it. It started in December with COVID when he used the very same modus operandi, which was also met with criticism. Now, some newspaper editorials have started to argue that he's just a weak and ineffective leader.

And as my fellow German poster Yeahsayyeah explained a page before in this thread, the second factor is that Germany has in fact have rather limited military resources, because our military is in shambles really.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1516087197920813061

When I tell you I SCREAMED

[Yoda]

Assuming Ukraine emerges as a sovereign and democratic state, it will be impossible for it not to acquire Japan-style nuclear threshold status - no nukes officially, but the ability to build a sizeable arsenal if the government gives an order within a few weeks. And once that happens, it will be impossible to convince Iran not to build nukes. Non- proliferation will be all but dead.

I couldn't agree more. I've been thinking for a while now that the logical conclusion to the line of thinking from people that constantly say we can't put one American boot on the ground in Ukraine or give them one American fighter jet is that the only way Ukraine's security will ultimately be secured is if they have nuclear missiles pointed at Moscow. If Ukraine is never allowed to fight back across russian borders, and no other Ukraine ally can strike at targets in russia (b/c that will guarantee instant nuclear holocaust we're told) to prevent them from launching missiles into Ukraine, ultimately that's the only sure-fire deterrent they are left with. To be clear, this does not make me happy; I'm a huge proponent of nuclear NON-proliferation. I want more and more START treaties until there are no more nuclear weapons. But what do we expect Ukraine to do? If Russian ends up permanently annexing Crimea and given that Putin already has control of Belarus, going forward Ukraine will be about 3/4 surrounded by hostile butchers. Russia uses their nuclear stockpile to get away with atrocities; the logical outcome of the rest of the world allowing this to happen is that countries targeted by the russian war crime machine won't be safe until they have the nuclear capacity to wipe russia off the face of the earth if russia dares invade them.

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the German Press Agency (DPA), the German government has offered Slovakia to supply them with Marder infantry vehicles and Fuchs armoured personnel carriers in return for Slovakia giving their T-72 tanks to Ukraine. This would circumvent the issue that Ukrainian military personnel would need to be trained operating Marders first.

(Some media are reporting this with reference to Slovenia and not Slovakia, but unlike Slovakia Slovenia doesn't appear to have any T-72s. So I'm attributing the mix-up to incompetent journalists who suck at geography.)

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ukraine-russland-konflikt-blog-100.html#feed-item-93493

[Omega21]

More Russian withdrawals from Mariupol, likely to further reinforce the Donbas offensive.

https://twitter.com/Caucasuswar/status/1517077455860899841

In other news:

Note: This is a long-expected test & unlikely to be related to the invasion.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1516816531560316936

[CumbrianLefty]

Assuming Ukraine emerges as a sovereign and democratic state, it will be impossible for it not to acquire Japan-style nuclear threshold status - no nukes officially, but the ability to build a sizeable arsenal if the government gives an order within a few weeks. And once that happens, it will be impossible to convince Iran not to build nukes. Non- proliferation will be all but dead.

I couldn't agree more. I've been thinking for a while now that the logical conclusion to the line of thinking from people that constantly say we can't put one American boot on the ground in Ukraine or give them one American fighter jet is that the only way Ukraine's security will ultimately be secured is if they have nuclear missiles pointed at Moscow. If Ukraine is never allowed to fight back across russian borders, and no other Ukraine ally can strike at targets in russia (b/c that will guarantee instant nuclear holocaust we're told) to prevent them from launching missiles into Ukraine, ultimately that's the only sure-fire deterrent they are left with. To be clear, this does not make me happy; I'm a huge proponent of nuclear NON-proliferation. I want more and more START treaties until there are no more nuclear weapons. But what do we expect Ukraine to do? If Russian ends up permanently annexing Crimea and given that Putin already has control of Belarus, going forward Ukraine will be about 3/4 surrounded by hostile butchers. Russia uses their nuclear stockpile to get away with atrocities; the logical outcome of the rest of the world allowing this to happen is that countries targeted by the russian war crime machine won't be safe until they have the nuclear capacity to wipe russia off the face of the earth if russia dares invade them.

As they say, watch this space.

And yes, Russia having the capacity to blow up the world is real and can't be wished away.

[Bismarck]

Assuming Ukraine emerges as a sovereign and democratic state, it will be impossible for it not to acquire Japan-style nuclear threshold status - no nukes officially, but the ability to build a sizeable arsenal if the government gives an order within a few weeks. And once that happens, it will be impossible to convince Iran not to build nukes. Non- proliferation will be all but dead.

I couldn't agree more. I've been thinking for a while now that the logical conclusion to the line of thinking from people that constantly say we can't put one American boot on the ground in Ukraine or give them one American fighter jet is that the only way Ukraine's security will ultimately be secured is if they have nuclear missiles pointed at Moscow. If Ukraine is never allowed to fight back across russian borders, and no other Ukraine ally can strike at targets in russia (b/c that will guarantee instant nuclear holocaust we're told) to prevent them from launching missiles into Ukraine, ultimately that's the only sure-fire deterrent they are left with. To be clear, this does not make me happy; I'm a huge proponent of nuclear NON-proliferation. I want more and more START treaties until there are no more nuclear weapons. But what do we expect Ukraine to do? If Russian ends up permanently annexing Crimea and given that Putin already has control of Belarus, going forward Ukraine will be about 3/4 surrounded by hostile butchers. Russia uses their nuclear stockpile to get away with atrocities; the logical outcome of the rest of the world allowing this to happen is that countries targeted by the russian war crime machine won't be safe until they have the nuclear capacity to wipe russia off the face of the earth if russia dares invade them.

As they say, watch this space.

And yes, Russia having the capacity to blow up the world is real and can't be wished away.

Yes that is their unfortunate Trump card. I expect at least ten new countries to acquire nuclear weapons in the coming decade. Also, I like your signature. Not very often I get to see a reference to Van Der Graf Generator.

[CumbrianLefty]

Also, I like your signature. Not very often I get to see a reference to Van Der Graf Generator.

Peter Hammill is one of the few in the rock world who genuinely deserves that cliched term "genius".

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1517092063845752832
Russia forces are too exhausted to storm the steel plant, Mariupol might not fall after all

[CumbrianLefty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1517092063845752832
Russia forces are too exhausted to storm the steel plant, Mariupol might not fall after all

Maybe time to remind ourselves that a few Soviet pockets always held out in Stalingrad.....

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1517092063845752832
Russia forces are too exhausted to storm the steel plant, Mariupol might not fall after all

Siege tactics != abandoning the offensive, although it slows the deployment of troops from Mariupol to the rest of the Donbas.

Yesterday, there were Ukrainian reports of soldiers breaking out of the Primorsky district and reaching the other troops in Azovstal. That would indicate they have finally been reduced to one “pocket” of territory around the factory, but the poor/scant reporting about Primorsky casts a little bit of doubt over this new development (I’ll wait for the ISW update).

[Omega21]

https://mobile.twitter.com/nytimes/status/1517092063845752832
Russia forces are too exhausted to storm the steel plant, Mariupol might not fall after all

Siege tactics != abandoning the offensive, although it slows the deployment of troops from Mariupol to the rest of the Donbas.

Yesterday, there were Ukrainian reports of soldiers breaking out of the Primorsky district and reaching the other troops in Azovstal. That would indicate they have finally been reduced to one “pocket” of territory around the factory, but the poor/scant reporting about Primorsky casts a little bit of doubt over this new development (I’ll wait for the ISW update).

This makes a lot of sense.

The plant is a literal ant hill with an extensive tunnel network, which are now probably makeshift bunkers.

I hope Azov lets the civilians leave, because if this draws out, count on more TU-22 sorties with 3-5 ton bunker busters.

Also, apparently Azov has received orders to execute soldiers who are looking to surrender. (Note this is from a Russian source, so season with some salt.)

If this were the Marines or another proper UA military unit, I would be very skeptical, but when it comes to Azov, not letting soldiers surrender does seem within the realms of possibility.

https://twitter.com/gbazov/status/1516778601026306057



On another note, RU Tankers in Mariupol are now preforming the most important part of the operation: doing donuts.

https://twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1517084190906458112

[Middle-aged Europe]

According to the German Press Agency (DPA), the German government has offered Slovakia to supply them with Marder infantry vehicles and Fuchs armoured personnel carriers in return for Slovakia giving their T-72 tanks to Ukraine. This would circumvent the issue that Ukrainian military personnel would need to be trained operating Marders first.

(Some media are reporting this with reference to Slovenia and not Slovakia, but unlike Slovakia Slovenia doesn't appear to have any T-72s. So I'm attributing the mix-up to incompetent journalists who suck at geography.)

https://www.zdf.de/nachrichten/politik/ukraine-russland-konflikt-blog-100.html#feed-item-93493

Okay, I'm confused now... the majority of the media here talks about Slovenian T-72s. Maybe they're referring to the M-84 which is a variant of the T-72 used by Slovenia?

[Logical]

Extremely uncomfortable and unnatural pose by Putin during the entire meeting with Shoygu. Suggests that reports of disability or a stroke may be credible
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517046534113792001

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is it just me or does Scholz come off as pretty detestable right now?

Every other country seems to be pulling its weight but the Germans have been dragging their feet for weeks. Is he a Putin sympathizer? Afraid of escalation? What is the political calculus here....

It's largely a combination of two things.

First, Olaf Scholz is not good at making decisions and prefers not to make them if it is preventable. Or at least he has serious issues communicating things in a proper way. It is apparent that he doesn't really like to explain himself publicly or canvass for support for his policies.

I fear there's not really much more to it. It started in December with COVID when he used the very same modus operandi, which was also met with criticism. Now, some newspaper editorials have started to argue that he's just a weak and ineffective leader.

And as my fellow German poster Yeahsayyeah explained a page before in this thread, the second factor is that Germany has in fact have rather limited military resources, because our military is in shambles really.

An example for the increasing number of German anti-Scholz editorials (from non-rightwing media) starts like this:

Phrases instead of leadership

Chancellor Olaf Scholz remains true to his style: Careful tactical manoeuvering, not saying anything concrete, and in any case not provoking any trouble. This method has reached its limits in the war.

...

Full article: https://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/olaf-scholz-phrasen-statt-fuehrung-kolumne-von-sabine-rennefanz-a-1173d8c4-1661-4b1c-a365-3a35b90432cd

[Torie]

Extremely uncomfortable and unnatural pose by Putin during the entire meeting with Shoygu. Suggests that reports of disability or a stroke may be credible
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1517046534113792001

I guess the plan is to starve them out or to death. Putin does seem very low energy.

[Storr]

Interesting senior command change in (a not completely decimated unit of) the VDV. For some perspective, the largest/top level VDV units are fours divisions and four brigades.

wikipedia chart of VDV structure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Airborne_Forces#/media/File:Russian_Airborne_Forces.png

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1517018112100556800?s=20&t=xgkaBuqt8DWn49...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1517059330373259264?s=20&t=xgkaBuqt8DWn49...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Interesting senior command change in (a not completely decimated unit of) the VDV. For some perspective, the largest/top level VDV units are fours divisions and four brigades.

wikipedia chart of VDV structure: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Airborne_Forces#/media/File:Russian_Airborne_Forces.png

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1517018112100556800?s=20&t=xgkaBuqt8DWn49...
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1517059330373259264?s=20&t=xgkaBuqt8DWn49...

With multiple deaths of high-ranking officers come multiple vacancies. It is possible to sideline men like Chubarykin without putting them out in the cold.

[Torie]

So much winning.

I find this quite disturbing. Captain Queeg working his marbles, they are coming to take me away ha ha, it’s time to press the button and really teach them a lesson, if I go I am taking everyone down with me, etc, etc., mix and match the memes.

“In private, American officials have been more direct about the potential for an isolated Russian leader to lash out in further destabilizing ways. “We have been so successful in disconnecting Putin from the global system that he has even more incentive to disrupt it beyond Ukraine,” one senior intelligence official said in a recent conversation, insisting on anonymity to discuss intelligence assessments. “And if he grows increasingly desperate, he may try things that don’t seem rational.”

‘Mr. Putin, assessments delivered to the White House have concluded, believes he is winning, according to a senior American official who asked for anonymity to discuss intelligence findings.

‘He is certainly acting that way.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/us/politics/russia-putin-missile-test.html