Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1516528734601465861

Why does it have to be "from countries other than the U.S."

Why isn't it "from the US"?

Off the top of my head, I'm guessing it's just b/c the US doesn't have MiG's, which is what the Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly. These fighters are most likely from Poland, and what other countries I'm not sure. Could be wrong as I didn't look it up, but I think the least advanced fighter still in service in the US is the F-15. Now, should the US be giving Ukraine more advanced jets than MiG's to fight off the Russians? IMO, 100% yes. I read an interview with a Ukrainian pilot a week or so ago and he said the big problem is that the Russians are using much more advanced SU-35's, and pretty much the best the Ukrainian pilots can do in their MiG's when they engage them is to try not to die and to lure the russians into an airspace where the Ukrainians have anti-fighter missiles set up. We should be training their pilots how to fly F-16's in Germany and allowing them to finance the purchase of F-16's, if not simply donating them. We have enough F-35's and F-22's that we can safely get rid of at least some F-16's at this point.

We should be training them right now to use F-16(s).

We are simply not thinking far ahead enough.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1516528734601465861

Why does it have to be "from countries other than the U.S."

Why isn't it "from the US"?

Off the top of my head, I'm guessing it's just b/c the US doesn't have MiG's, which is what the Ukrainian pilots are trained to fly. These fighters are most likely from Poland, and what other countries I'm not sure. Could be wrong as I didn't look it up, but I think the least advanced fighter still in service in the US is the F-15. Now, should the US be giving Ukraine more advanced jets than MiG's to fight off the Russians? IMO, 100% yes. I read an interview with a Ukrainian pilot a week or so ago and he said the big problem is that the Russians are using much more advanced SU-35's, and pretty much the best the Ukrainian pilots can do in their MiG's when they engage them is to try not to die and to lure the russians into an airspace where the Ukrainians have anti-fighter missiles set up. We should be training their pilots how to fly F-16's in Germany and allowing them to finance the purchase of F-16's, if not simply donating them. We have enough F-35's and F-22's that we can safely get rid of at least some F-16's at this point.

We should be training them right now to use F-16(s).

We are simply not thinking far ahead enough.

I agree. Early on in the war, when conventional thinking was that Ukraine would get rolled over, I can see not wanting to train them for F-16's. But now, we know it will drag on for several months at least, to conceivably years. They should be getting trained for all sorts of weapons systems, including the Patriot missile system. The pilot in the article I mentioned said that missile defense systems would be more useful than fighter jets.

[Logical]

Denazification update :
https://twitter.com/AuschwitzMuseum/status/1516466983075823626

[pppolitics]

Why is it that we are always being the curve?

https://twitter.com/julianbarnes/status/1516517664126029828

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1516528734601465861
Why does it have to be "from countries other than the U.S."

Why isn't it "from the US"?

The US has a limited number of Soviet aircraft and relevant parts. Some of these are privately owned, others are used for “foreign materiel exploitation” programs (aggressor training) and it’s likely certain airframes have had their avionics changed to American ones or been demilitarised. Work could be done to change this, and at least one contractor has offered to send a MiG-29 to Ukraine if the US government wants that, but the foreign materiel exploitation programs are jealously guarded and the US government can get stingy and/or paranoid.

Its reluctance to be involved in the Polish MiG deal should indicate that its own Russian aircraft are either off or under (clandestinely) the table. A training program on American or European aircraft is more plausible. The West could supply these more easily and they’d be more effective in the long run, but Ukrainians would probably need (at least) months to learn to use them effectively, which is why a training program could be permitted even if a final decision to provide such aircraft had not yet been made.

Edit: to be clear, the US does have at least some operational Soviet/Russian jets. Even discounting the L-39 light attack platform and its derivatives, you can find operational MiG-/Su-type aircraft in private hands on the FAA register, and as recently as 2016, US foreign materiel exploitation programs still had MiG-29s and Su-27s flying. How many they actually own that are still operational is another question, but the US government did get 21 MiG-29s in the 1990s and a couple of Su-27s a bit later. The Nellis airbase report listed such models as among the gear that needed to be moved, and these planes weren’t marked as “display only” unlike some of the even older planes at Nellis.

Ukraine stuck its neck out (wrongly, in my view) to help the foreign materiel exploitation program in the past, so it should obviously get all of these planes, but it won’t.

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1516536083953160193

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1516682195989147654

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/CBCNews/status/1516642820018348034

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1516665659349999618

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1516087197920813061

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1516704886892765185

[Woody]

The Soviet victory flag still standing in Kherson.

[Woody]

Kadyrov claimed that either in Tuesday or Wednesday Azovstal will fall. Today is the deadline.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1516665659349999618

Should be reported as (short-range) MANPADS, because that’s what it is. Norway could make a much bigger difference by training Ukraine with the NASAMS anti-air system or the NSM anti-ship system.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1516524100872724489?s=20&t=W5MBclQPCxqe...

Sending Ukraine the Sea Spear Brimstone variant was talked about before the war. The trouble is it isn't obvious how much use it would be, these don't have a large enough warhead to sink big ships. Sea Spear was originally designed to blow up swarms of Iranian fast attack boats.

But the idea of putting Brimstone on the back of technicals may have a far better use. The latest Brimstone 3 variant can also be ground-launched and is essentially an autonomous radar-guided missile. Instead of use against ships, these would be perfect for taking out rear echelon units like artillery/air defenses, as well as tanks without putting troops in danger. Would make a big difference to the battles in the South where everything is exposed. Hopefully we have enough to give them to make an effective rocket artillery.

[CumbrianLefty]

Why is it that we are always being the curve?

Because we didn't know things that we know now?

The same was true of the Russian side, of course, so its likely a wash overall.

[ugabug]

Between France and Germany I'm actually beginning to sympathize with the brexit crowd. The EU is in desperate need of actual leadership here.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1516545897617833988

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Between France and Germany I'm actually beginning to sympathize with the brexit crowd. The EU is in desperate need of actual leadership here.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1516545897617833988

Contribution to European defence is one of the reasons why we should have stayed in, IMO. Germany’s response is predictable and their defence/foreign policy history means that (for the foreseeable future) France is the EU Army’s single point of failure.

[Yeahsayyeah]

On the other hand, non-German people probably underestimate the hilariously bad state of the equipment, overburocratisation and ability of burning money for nothing of the German armed forces. So, at least for the domestic consumption of non-experts, so people like me, "we have nothing that is functioning and of value we can give Ukraine" isn't unbelievable.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1516481166735560729?s=20&t=D2ukzJNHk...



But also have Ukraine join NATO.

[Storr]

A good article (and thread) showing why the Kremlin's characterization of Ukraine as fascist Nazis resonates so much in Russia:

https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1516517992762425349?s=20&t=BiRZhGY5CsR...

https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1516710556933177344?s=20&t=BiRZhGY5CsR...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1516481166735560729?s=20&t=D2ukzJNHk...
But also have Ukraine join NATO.

Here we go again. Fighting to the last Ukrainian.. if these politicians actually cared about Ukraine they should have gone 100% full in when they had a chance, not pussyfooting for decades, not dangling NATO membership, made security guarantees, etc. This would have never have happened if Trump was president.

[Yeahsayyeah]

Yes, this would not have happened if Trump was president. Ukraine would be totally abandoned by the US by now.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/worldonalert/status/1516481166735560729?s=20&t=D2ukzJNHk...
But also have Ukraine join NATO.

Here we go again. Fighting to the last Ukrainian.. if these politicians actually cared about Ukraine they should have gone 100% full in when they had a chance, not pussyfooting for decades, not dangling NATO membership, made security guarantees, etc. This would have never have happened if Trump was president.

I will agree that there would have been no war if Trump were re-elected and that's it.

[Person Man]

Yes, this would not have happened if Trump was president. Ukraine would be totally abandoned by the US by now.

This. Especially once NS2 was completed.