Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

I think in addition to launching an offensive from Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol, the Ukrainian army would be wise to make a simultaneous offensive further east, first taking the city of Donetsk, and then attack Mariupol from there, cutting off Russian attempts to reinforce and supply their forces overland, then conduct mopping-up operations on that land bridge ridding it of all remaining Russian forces before pressing on to Kherson oblast and making it ultimately to the gates of Crimea:  



I assume though these will wait for spring.  

An offense on Donetsk will be quite difficult as it is the most fortified region Russia has as they had built up trenches and fortifications since 2014 in that region. Any offense in that region would have to come after the aforementioned Mariupol offensive spilts Russia lines in half and the hitting that region from the side

[Badger]

Woodbury is in pure cope and seethe mode I see lol

[Virginiá]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1591926287358390272

Another quote from one of the referenced tweet threads:

‘“We are saying to the Ukrainians that it is up to them to decide when to do it,” said a Western European official, referring to the potential for talks. “But it might be a good idea to do it sooner.”’

Echoing the US, now doesn't seem like the right time for talks either, but at the same time, a negotiated settlement where Ukraine gives up land just doesn't seem politically possible. Eventually this could get tricky for Ukraine, as their war needs are extensive and the while the west has invested in expanding production, they are only going to go so far, and the rest is up to Ukraine. I do hope that if Ukraine cannot see the end in 2023, that hopefully they secure a robust manufacturing base to make up the difference in munitions and weapons they need that aren't satisfied by the west.

[Logical]

Polonium tea is all the rage in Bali.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592082594946248704

[Woody]

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1591585898243981312?cxt=HHwWgIDU5aO...

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Sentletse/status/1592104709514760192

[CumbrianLefty]

Why have you gone red, pal?

[Torie]

If Ukraine takes Melitopol, that means Russia has lost the war. Donetsk is a big city and is not worth the cost of contesting. One Putin loses his land bridge, and Crimea is subject to being contested, he will give up. That is my uneducated opinion. Another way to put it, is that if Russia cannot prevent Melitopol from falling, that means its military has been rendered largely toothless. We shall see.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1592069825370652673
Russia might actually suffer 100k causalities by the end of 1 year in Ukraine. I know Russia historical has been able to withstand high causality rates and not collapse but those are normally defensive wars. I don’t see how they can keep this up in a war where they are the aggressor

[Stranger in a strange land]

Polonium tea is all the rage in Bali.
https://twitter.com/AP/status/1592082594946248704

If he doesn't want to go back to Russia, I guess a health emergency is one way of doing it.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1592217011127570434
https://twitter.com/UnerkanntW/status/1592207227800399872

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592221551973523456
🚨🚨🚨

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592221551973523456
🚨🚨🚨

Woah. That's a huge swathe of Luhansk.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1592282506363117568

Wagner did this before in Syria, although I don't recall them having to deny responsibility the first time.

[oldtimer]

If Ukraine takes Melitopol, that means Russia has lost the war. Donetsk is a big city and is not worth the cost of contesting. One Putin loses his land bridge, and Crimea is subject to being contested, he will give up. That is my uneducated opinion. Another way to put it, is that if Russia cannot prevent Melitopol from falling, that means its military has been rendered largely toothless. We shall see.

Russia lost the war in the first hours of the war, when they rushed the tanks with no infantry or air support.

The Ukrainian army should march to Moscow and annex Russia, they will be no resistance since there is currently no functional or loyal russian society or army.

The people of Moscow will greet them as liberators just like the people of Kherson.

If they don't annex Russia now that it's defenceless, they simply invite a future war under less favourable conditions for Ukraine.

[Torie]

If Ukraine takes Melitopol, that means Russia has lost the war. Donetsk is a big city and is not worth the cost of contesting. One Putin loses his land bridge, and Crimea is subject to being contested, he will give up. That is my uneducated opinion. Another way to put it, is that if Russia cannot prevent Melitopol from falling, that means its military has been rendered largely toothless. We shall see.

Russia lost the war in the first hours of the war, when they rushed the tanks with no infantry or air support.

The Ukrainian army should march to Moscow and annex Russia, they will be no resistance since there is currently no functional or loyal russian society or army.

The people of Moscow will greet them as liberators just like the people of Kherson.

If they don't annex Russia now that it's defenceless, they simply invite a future war under less favourable conditions for Ukraine.

I think your edible dose might be excessive. I suggest swimming laps in lieu thereof.

[AndyHogan14]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592221551973523456
🚨🚨🚨

Sievierodonetsk and Rubizhne but not Lysychansk? That seems strange...

[oldtimer]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592221551973523456
🚨🚨🚨

Sievierodonetsk and Rubizhne but not Lysychansk? That seems strange...

They have been building defenses on the south side of the river all the way to their old border.

And bulding defenses in south Crimea too.

They are really not confident of holding anything, that's why I support a march to Moscow, you would never have a Russia this weak for a long time.

[Omega21]

If Ukraine takes Melitopol, that means Russia has lost the war. Donetsk is a big city and is not worth the cost of contesting. One Putin loses his land bridge, and Crimea is subject to being contested, he will give up. That is my uneducated opinion. Another way to put it, is that if Russia cannot prevent Melitopol from falling, that means its military has been rendered largely toothless. We shall see.

Russia lost the war in the first hours of the war, when they rushed the tanks with no infantry or air support.

The Ukrainian army should march to Moscow and annex Russia, they will be no resistance since there is currently no functional or loyal russian society or army.

The people of Moscow will greet them as liberators just like the people of Kherson.

If they don't annex Russia now that it's defenceless, they simply invite a future war under less favourable conditions for Ukraine.

Unsure if you're:

1. a Z maxi who just wants to see Putin deploy nukes

2. trolling

or

3. very, very high

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/UN/status/1592291536657448961

[Cassius]

If Ukraine takes Melitopol, that means Russia has lost the war. Donetsk is a big city and is not worth the cost of contesting. One Putin loses his land bridge, and Crimea is subject to being contested, he will give up. That is my uneducated opinion. Another way to put it, is that if Russia cannot prevent Melitopol from falling, that means its military has been rendered largely toothless. We shall see.

Russia lost the war in the first hours of the war, when they rushed the tanks with no infantry or air support.

The Ukrainian army should march to Moscow and annex Russia, they will be no resistance since there is currently no functional or loyal russian society or army.

The people of Moscow will greet them as liberators just like the people of Kherson.

If they don't annex Russia now that it's defenceless, they simply invite a future war under less favourable conditions for Ukraine.

Unsure if you're:

1. a Z maxi who just wants to see Putin deploy nukes

2. trolling

or

3. very, very high

Of course, Ukraine annexing Russia would mean that Putin had achieved his objective. 7D chess.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

*snip*

An update on this: the Spiegel reports that German howitzers are to be repaired in Slovakia instead of Poland.

The change in plans came because of a months-long spat between Poland and Germany: Poland required that a Polish company lead the repairs, which would mean they'd acquire the trade secrets of whatever was repaired there. The German company responsible for refurbishing PzH2000s rejected this.

The PzH 2000s use a repair centre in Lithuania at the moment, but there are more delays incurred by having this site further from Ukraine, hence the attempted German-Polish deal. Negotiations are now underway to open the centre in Slovakia instead, by the end of the year. This centre may also service arms from other German and French companies, including one which can maintain Caesar howitzers.

Tobias Schneider claims (on Twitter) that the argument/delay has strengthened the German view that ringtausch is preferable to direct delivery of arms Ukraine is not already familiar with.

Poland has generally done more for Ukraine than Germany, but this is not uniformly true. It is useful to keep in mind that Duda's government is not exactly filled to the brim with political paragons.

Lambrecht says negotiations were successful and the repair centre will open by the end of the year.

[emailking]

US intelligence suggests Russia put off announcing Kherson retreat until after midterm elections

The US has intelligence that Russia may have delayed announcing its withdrawal from the Ukrainian city of Kherson in part to avoid giving the Biden administration a political win ahead of the midterm elections, according to four people familiar with the intelligence.

Senior Russian officials discussed the US midterms as a factor during deliberations about the withdrawal announcement, one person familiar with the intelligence said. Waiting until after the US election was always a “pre-planned condition” of Russia’s withdrawal from Kherson, a second person familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

Still, the election was far from the only consideration in Russia’s retreat, officials said. Military analysts say Russia had few other operational options and had been preparing to pull back for weeks, leading US officials to wonder when the Russians would officially acknowledge the withdrawal.

While the intelligence is not a formal assessment of Russia’s intentions, it is a sign that Russia has a continued interest in influencing the US political landscape — although the sources said Russia probably miscalculated the impact such an announcement would actually have on the elections.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/us-intelligence-russia-withdrawal-midterm-election/index.html

[All Along The Watchtower]

The most credible part of that excerpt:

Still, the election was far from the only consideration in Russia’s retreat, officials said. Military analysts say Russia had few other operational options and had been preparing to pull back for weeks

Occam's Razor: Russian military commanders have been pushing for a retreat from Kherson for weeks, but Putin, as usual, is averse to making tough decisions---especially ones that are tacitly an admission of defeat.

As much as both the US government, the US media, and Western "anti-imperialists" would like to believe otherwise, the US is not actually the Main Character.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Anyway, can we have a moment of silence for the real victims of the Russian war against Ukraine:

Wealthy Russians have increasingly been attempting to avoid being drafted into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine by applying for citizenship in the Caribbean nation of Grenada.

Russians with the financial means to do so have been applying for citizenship in Grenada through an investment initiative that allows an applicant to receive a passport to the country for a minimum investment of $150,000 or a government approved real estate purchase at a cost of $350,000, Bloomberg reported.

https://www.foxnews.com/world/wealthy-russians-attempting-avoid-putins-military-draft-applying-passports-grenada