Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Largest missile & air attack today, in months by Russia.

According to UA, around 100 cruise missiles/blackouts now throughout the country.
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1592538826333114368
https://twitter.com/LWNChannel/status/1592576978003320832
https://twitter.com/Mykola65109280/status/1592539288704811015
https://twitter.com/OlesiaPolikha/status/1592553031429939201
https://twitter.com/Belsat_Eng/status/1592570877845311488
https://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1592556809436684288
https://twitter.com/MaimunkaNews/status/1592519181362401280

[DavidB.]

Well well well...
https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1592583028362342403

[rc18]

Well well well...
https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1592583028362342403

That sound you can hear is the Poles smashing the Article 5 button.

[Woody]

inb4 Hindsight is 2020 calls for article 5.

[Ferguson97]

Putin is a mad dog who may have just started World War III. His little mind can't handle that he's losing a war with Ukraine and will drag us all down with him.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1592586474712895488?ref_src=twsrc%5Etf...

[AndyHogan14]

Well well well...
https://twitter.com/AmichaiStein1/status/1592583028362342403

That sound you can hear is the Poles smashing the Article 5 button.

Trigger Article 5, clear the Russian trash out of Ukraine, and end this.

[Oryxslayer]

INB4 we get the ultimate hypocrisy of Russia bending backwards and sending officials and money to Poland while they send soldiers to Ukraine.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Most likely an accident, but the threshold for tolerance will be lower given that the target was likely immovable infrastructure or another civilian target.

[AndyHogan14]

Most likely an accident, but the threshold for tolerance will be lower given that the target was likely immovable infrastructure or another civilian target.

Of course it was an accident, the Russians aren't suicidal enough to purposely hit a NATO country. With that said, Russia will never be weaker and any nuclear threats are a massive bluff. We could just provide air support to the Ukrainians under a triggered article 5 and the Russians would be driven out by Christmas.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Most likely an accident, but the threshold for tolerance will be lower given that the target was likely immovable infrastructure or another civilian target.

Of course it was an accident, the Russians aren't suicidal enough to purposely hit a NATO country.

They've done their fair share of SOF operations that ended with exploding ammo dumps/brazen assassinations. They may have sent the Tu-141 that crashed in Croatia, although that was probably malfunctioning. It is also quite possible that they were responsible for the Nordstream sabotage in Denmark's EEZ.

I wouldn't completely rule out that they were testing boundaries with this strike, although I think the chances are very low indeed.

With that said, Russia will never be weaker and any nuclear threats are a massive bluff. We could just provide air support to the Ukrainians under a triggered article 5 and the Russians would be driven out by Christmas.

If states like Poland were chomping at the bit to make war with Russia, they would most likely have already supplied Ukraine with certain weapons which haven't arrived. This could be a pretext, but they're almost certainly not looking for a pretext, because entering the conflict over the deaths of two people is not deemed to be in their interest. There are other responses they can make, including those which hurt Russia without expanding the war.

[Dereich]

Its been said before, but this just emphasizes the pointlessness of the Russian missile strikes. Its not helping things on the ground; Kherson and their still painfully slow struggle to gain ground in Donetsk make that clear. Its not doing anything to force Zelensky to the negotiating table either. Russia is wasting some of its most valuable and limited resources so that they can do something, anything in reaction to yet more Ukrainian successes. Its all rather pathetic.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1592594384708517890

[AndyHogan14]

Most likely an accident, but the threshold for tolerance will be lower given that the target was likely immovable infrastructure or another civilian target.

Of course it was an accident, the Russians aren't suicidal enough to purposely hit a NATO country.

They've done their fair share of SOF operations that ended with exploding ammo dumps/brazen assassinations. They may have sent the Tu-141 that crashed in Croatia, although that was probably malfunctioning. It is also quite possible that they were responsible for the Nordstream sabotage in Denmark's EEZ.

I wouldn't completely rule out that they were testing boundaries with this strike, although I think the chances are very low indeed.

With that said, Russia will never be weaker and any nuclear threats are a massive bluff. We could just provide air support to the Ukrainians under a triggered article 5 and the Russians would be driven out by Christmas.

If states like Poland were chomping at the bit to make war with Russia, they would most likely have already supplied Ukraine with certain weapons which haven't arrived. This could be a pretext, but they're almost certainly not looking for a pretext, because entering the conflict over the deaths of two people is not deemed to be in their interest. There are other responses they can make, including those which hurt Russia without expanding the war.

The problem is, if there is no response, what is stopping Russia from actually trying to hit something within a NATO country? Two people may not seem like a lot, but if you give an inch a person like Putin will take a mile. Even if they don't try to hit Poland, it is inevitable that the Russian desire to terrorize the Ukrainian population with missiles will lead to another strike on Poland/Slovakia/Hungary/Romania.

[Silent Hunter]

I wrote an article on the impact of German bombing in the Second World War on power supply in the UK. Little real impact and around 42% of the outages were due to barrage balloons getting loose and hitting power lines.

[Ferguson97]

Per CNN: Pentagon says it does not have enough information to confirm or corroborate whether or not the Russians were responsible for the missile attacks in Poland.

[lfromnj]

Its been said before, but this just emphasizes the pointlessness of the Russian missile strikes. Its not helping things on the ground; Kherson and their still painfully slow struggle to gain ground in Donetsk make that clear. Its not doing anything to force Zelensky to the negotiating table either. Russia is wasting some of its most valuable and limited resources so that they can do something, anything in reaction to yet more Ukrainian successes. Its all rather pathetic.

They seem to be mostly doing them after any failure. First after Kharkiv,, after the bridge , and finally after their retreat. Basically its pure propaganda for home. I do believe it has some effect but these attacks must not be worth the direct military cost as they would have been doing them before .

Its important to note sanctions are likely straining their accurate missiles supply

[Oryxslayer]

Per CNN: Pentagon says it does not have enough information to confirm or corroborate whether or not the Russians were responsible for the missile attacks in Poland.

I see we're going the "pretend to gaslight everyone cause the truth is politically unworkable, but we'll still respond non-forcefully in some fashion just pretend its disconnected" route.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/LWNChannel/status/1592595716337061888

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Most likely an accident, but the threshold for tolerance will be lower given that the target was likely immovable infrastructure or another civilian target.

Of course it was an accident, the Russians aren't suicidal enough to purposely hit a NATO country.

They've done their fair share of SOF operations that ended with exploding ammo dumps/brazen assassinations. They may have sent the Tu-141 that crashed in Croatia, although that was probably malfunctioning. It is also quite possible that they were responsible for the Nordstream sabotage in Denmark's EEZ.

I wouldn't completely rule out that they were testing boundaries with this strike, although I think the chances are very low indeed.

With that said, Russia will never be weaker and any nuclear threats are a massive bluff. We could just provide air support to the Ukrainians under a triggered article 5 and the Russians would be driven out by Christmas.

If states like Poland were chomping at the bit to make war with Russia, they would most likely have already supplied Ukraine with certain weapons which haven't arrived. This could be a pretext, but they're almost certainly not looking for a pretext, because entering the conflict over the deaths of two people is not deemed to be in their interest. There are other responses they can make, including those which hurt Russia without expanding the war.

The problem is, if there is no response, what is stopping Russia from actually trying to hit something within a NATO country? Two people may not seem like a lot, but if you give an inch a person like Putin will take a mile. Even if they don't try to hit Poland, it is inevitable that the Russian desire to terrorize the Ukrainian population with missiles will lead to another strike on Poland/Slovakia/Hungary/Romania.

This would indeed be a problem, but attacking Russia over what was most likely a result of poor targeting is quite clearly not the only potential response.

That is not a uniquely Russian problem: when it comes to manned aircraft destroyed by the Patriot missiles system, 2 of the 4 were downed by friendly fire.

[President Johnson]

I doubt the incident will trigger a military response by Poland/NATO. Some diplomatic actions are more likely.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I doubt the incident will trigger a military response by Poland/NATO. Some diplomatic actions are more likely.

Not a military response in Ukraine, but I wouldn't be surprised to see more air defences and jets deployed to Poland to improve the chances of intercepting future accidents.

[Logical]

Article 5 isn't happening, much as I'd like that. But the likelihood of Polish Migs being transferred to Ukraine just went up significantly.

[emailking]

Rockets or missiles reported to have landed in Poland near Ukrainian border, killing 2

Two missiles or rockets are reported to have hit a farm in Poland, near the border with Ukraine. Two people are reported killed.

Polish media showed an image of a deep impact and upturned farm vehicle at the site, near the town of Przewodow.

It's unclear where the projectiles came from.

However, the missiles or rockets landed at roughly the same time as a Russian missile attack on western Ukraine.

A government spokesperson said that Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs.

https://www.cnn.com/webview/europe/live-news/russia-ukraine-war-news-11-15-22/h_e7fcb96313566fdeabb625b08f4b4b7f

[Middle-aged Europe]

Aside from Article 5, the NATO Treaty also contains Article 4 whose invocation would constitute a lower level response, you know.