Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

There are now 29 ridings in the Alternatives section of the map (https://bit.ly/Canada342).  

Here's a rundown.

(a)   Newfoundland and Labrador (4 seats)
Labrador riding only has 37% of the population of an (already low) average NL riding and is by far the least populous constituency in Canada.  One idea is to add the Northern Peninsula - from St. Anthony down to Gros Morne - to Labrador, raising its share to 57%.  The resulting ripple effect would have Baie Verte added to the western Newfoundland riding (renamed Humber—St. George’s—Baie Verte), and Gambo moved from Bonavista—Burin--Avalon to Coast of Bays—Central—Notre Dame.

(b)   Southern New Brunswick (3 seats)
Moving Rothesay from Saint John to join the other communities along the Kennebecasis River in Gagetown—Kennebecasis would allow the three ridings in the area (including Fundy—Royal) to follow county lines and better balance populations.

(c)   Montreal (3 seats)
Montreal is unchanged except that the neighbourhood of Le Sud-Ouest was moved from Ville-Marie--Île-des-Soeurs to reduce its population count.  Bringing the new LaSalle--Émard--Verdun--Le Sud-Ouest within a +10% deviation from the Quebec average could be done by moving an area west of the Canal de l’Aqueduc to Dorval--Lachine--LaSalle and moving Ville Saint-Pierre to Notre-Dame-de-Grâce--Westmount.

(d)   Ottawa (2 seats)
The proposed map reunited the Carlington area within Ottawa West—Nepean.  An alternative plan would keep the boundary along Merivale Rd and remove Carleton Heights/Hog’s Back from Ottawa Centre instead.  Moving both neighbourhoods to Ottawa West—Nepean would leave a 11K population gap between the two ridings.

(e)   Kanata/Stittsville (2 seats)
Kanata and Stittsville combined are too large to form one federal (and provincial) riding.  However, by removing all the territory of Kanata—Carleton north and west of Terry Fox Dr (West Carleton, South March, the Diefenbunker) and swapping this area with Stittsville from Lanark—Carleton, it would create two seats with similar populations.

(f)   Waterloo/Brant/Hamilton (11 seats)
Brant has too many people for one federal riding and needs to join part of the county to one of its neighbours.  The proposed map adds it to Waterloo Region; the alternative map adds it to Hamilton instead.  The ripple effect would move the Bridgeport area from Waterloo to Kitchener Centre and keep the other three regional seats almost unchanged.  In Hamilton, Stoney Creek would be reunited in a single seat and Dundas would be added to downtown Hamilton.

(g)   Northern Ontario (2 seats)
Thunder Bay—Rainy River has a population that is more than 25% below the Ontario average.  This makes it a ‘special consideration’ riding.  Thunder Bay—Superior North does not have enough population to shift some ‘suburbs’ to TBRR to bring it above the 87,443 threshold.  The solution would be to either extend TBSN further east and south (Hearst? Foleyet?) or to detach Ignace and Sioux Lookout from Kenora and add it to Thunder Bay—Rainy River.

(h)   Strathcona County (2 seats)
Originally, there was an attempt to balance the populations of Lakeland and Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan by moving some of the ‘rural’ area of Strathcona County to Lakeland.  It was pointed out that these rural residents were predominantly multi-millionaires living on estate lots, and that their community of interest with Vegreville was minimal.  The original proposal is left as an alternative plan.

[Philly D.]

This may all be moot:

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/2022-03-02/redecoupage-electoral/le-poids-politique-du-quebec-sera-protege-vote-la-chambre-des-communes.php

This does not look to be a binding motion, so it's still unclear whether Quebec will lose a seat. While one seat more for the four largest provinces would reduce inter-provincial equality, placing the 78th seat in Quebec looks to be tricky -- Eastern Quebec would still lose a seat and Chicoutimi is still a negative exception. (Alberta and BC would need to start from basically zero in such a situation. Toronto and Northern Ontario would still lose a seat.)

I don't know what Krago has against "Toronto" and "Montreal". In his proposals every seat in Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver, Brampton and Mississauga, to name a few, have the city name somewhere, and everywhere outside of Quebec where a city gets more than one full riding at least half of the ridings have the designation. Not always in Quebec... but of course they have ridings named after people much to Hatman's delight chagrin...

And one idea for Kingston; all of the city east of the Cataraqui river could be in Frontenac. It is similar in nature to the city of Kingston north of the 401 which is also in that riding.

[Krago]

People have known since October that Quebec would lose one seat in the upcoming redistribution.  Fixing the problem would involve amending Section 51(1) Rule 2 of the Constitution Act, yet there is currently no bill before Parliament that would do this.

"2.  If the number of members assigned to a province by the application of rule 1 and section 51A is less than the total number assigned to that province on the date of the coming into force of the Constitution Act, 1985 (Representation) completion of the preceding readjustment, there shall be added to the number of members so assigned such number of members as will result in the province having the same number of members as were assigned on that date."


A BQ member introduced a private members' bill (Bill C-246) on Feb. 8 that would guarantee Quebec no less than 25% of the total seats in the House of Commons.  If the bill passes, not only would Quebec retain its 78th seat, it would gain 11 additional seats (89).

https://www.parl.ca/DocumentViewer/en/44-1/bill/C-246/first-reading

[lilTommy]

Ch-ch-changes...

I've replaced the original proposals from Brampton and midtown Toronto with their alternatives.

As always, the proposed New Electoral Map for Canada can be found here:

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Previously, I eliminated all 'York' riding names and now I've gone after 'Toronto'.

• Rosedale is added to Toronto--St. Paul's and the riding is renamed Cedarvale-Rosedale.  Gotta love those ravines!
• After toying with Casa Loma--University (yuck), I decided that name of the new riding stretching from St. Clair to Dundas should be Spadina.  It includes the original Spadina mansion and the Spadina subway station, and contains more than twice the amount of Spadina Road (3.67km) than the incumbent Spadina--Fort York riding (1.76km).
• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.
• Toronto Centre has been re-christened St.Lawrence--St. James to honour two of its distinctive neighbourhoods, as a nod to the historic provincial riding names in the area, and as an up yours to those uppity folks in Cabbagetown.  (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!)

Spadina--Fort York: I like Fort York, or perhaps Trinity--Fort York
"new" Spadina: I'm no fan of ridings named after streets, but you do add more justification with the other mentions. I might try Annex--Kensington
Davenport: Again a street name, but also only about half the neighbourhood is in this riding. I like Dovercourt as a better name, the neighbourhood is fully here and its a way-back to the old provincial riding. If we are going down this streets name path, Dufferin would be better (the street is central here, also the neighbourhood of Dufferin Grove and the Mall is all here. This make more sense then Davenport) But there is a county with that name as a riding so...

[Hatman 🍁]

Why couldn't they just demand to not lose a seat, make a deal with the Liberals and pass an amendment?

[Krago]

Ch-ch-changes...

I've replaced the original proposals from Brampton and midtown Toronto with their alternatives.

As always, the proposed New Electoral Map for Canada can be found here:

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Previously, I eliminated all 'York' riding names and now I've gone after 'Toronto'.

• Rosedale is added to Toronto--St. Paul's and the riding is renamed Cedarvale-Rosedale.  Gotta love those ravines!
• After toying with Casa Loma--University (yuck), I decided that name of the new riding stretching from St. Clair to Dundas should be Spadina.  It includes the original Spadina mansion and the Spadina subway station, and contains more than twice the amount of Spadina Road (3.67km) than the incumbent Spadina--Fort York riding (1.76km).
• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.
• Toronto Centre has been re-christened St.Lawrence--St. James to honour two of its distinctive neighbourhoods, as a nod to the historic provincial riding names in the area, and as an up yours to those uppity folks in Cabbagetown.  (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!)

Spadina--Fort York: I like Fort York, or perhaps Trinity--Fort York
"new" Spadina: I'm no fan of ridings named after streets, but you do add more justification with the other mentions. I might try Annex--Kensington
Davenport: Again a street name, but also only about half the neighbourhood is in this riding. I like Dovercourt as a better name, the neighbourhood is fully here and its a way-back to the old provincial riding. If we are going down this streets name path, Dufferin would be better (the street is central here, also the neighbourhood of Dufferin Grove and the Mall is all here. This make more sense then Davenport) But there is a county with that name as a riding so...

I forgot Toronto--Danforth!  Danforth--Corktown, anyone?

And Beaches--East York only has the eastern half of the former Borough.  Beaches--Taylor Creek?

[lilTommy]

Ch-ch-changes...

I've replaced the original proposals from Brampton and midtown Toronto with their alternatives.

As always, the proposed New Electoral Map for Canada can be found here:

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Previously, I eliminated all 'York' riding names and now I've gone after 'Toronto'.

• Rosedale is added to Toronto--St. Paul's and the riding is renamed Cedarvale-Rosedale.  Gotta love those ravines!
• After toying with Casa Loma--University (yuck), I decided that name of the new riding stretching from St. Clair to Dundas should be Spadina.  It includes the original Spadina mansion and the Spadina subway station, and contains more than twice the amount of Spadina Road (3.67km) than the incumbent Spadina--Fort York riding (1.76km).
• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.
• Toronto Centre has been re-christened St.Lawrence--St. James to honour two of its distinctive neighbourhoods, as a nod to the historic provincial riding names in the area, and as an up yours to those uppity folks in Cabbagetown.  (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!)

Spadina--Fort York: I like Fort York, or perhaps Trinity--Fort York
"new" Spadina: I'm no fan of ridings named after streets, but you do add more justification with the other mentions. I might try Annex--Kensington
Davenport: Again a street name, but also only about half the neighbourhood is in this riding. I like Dovercourt as a better name, the neighbourhood is fully here and its a way-back to the old provincial riding. If we are going down this streets name path, Dufferin would be better (the street is central here, also the neighbourhood of Dufferin Grove and the Mall is all here. This make more sense then Davenport) But there is a county with that name as a riding so...

I forgot Toronto--Danforth!  Danforth--Corktown, anyone?

And Beaches--East York only has the eastern half of the former Borough.  Beaches--Taylor Creek?

Ah, me too!
Riverdale--Corktown I think would be better, or Riverdale--Portlands
Beaches--Woodbine would be my vote

You've renamed York South--West to Weston, which is better, I'd probably go Weston--Mount Denis

[Hatman 🍁]

I think you still need "York" in the York South-Weston riding name, as it contains most of the former borough of York. Even just calling it York-Weston would work.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's what I had in mind for Northern Ontario:



Both Thunder Bay ridings are just over the 25% threshold, without eating into Kenora. TBRR takes in some Thunder Bay suburbs in the McKellar area, akin to how the map looked in the 1990s. TBSN (re-named Thunder Bay-Superior), wraps all the way down Lake Superior to the northern edge of the Soo.

AMK gets nuked, of course. Kap area goes to TJB, Elliot Lake area goes to the Soo (new riding of Sault Ste. Marie-Elliot Lake, or maybe just "Algoma"). Nickel Belt gets Manitoulin (Nickel Belt-Manitoulin), while it loses West Nipissing to Nipissing-Timiskaming. Sudbury/Nickel Belt borders get re-jigged. All of the ridings in the NE have about 100,000 people.

[Ontarois]

• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.

(1) Fort York-Harbourside (2) Fort-York-Waterfront (3) Fort York-Lakeshore, proposed from best to worst, but all better than Spadina-Fort-York.

[lilTommy]

• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.

(1) Fort York-Harbourside (2) Fort-York-Waterfront (3) Fort York-Lakeshore, proposed from best to worst, but all better than Spadina-Fort-York.

"Harbourside" isn't really a name used here, but Harbourfront is, Fort York--Harbourfront would work.

But yes, better then the current. I'm still team Trinity-Fort York (almost all of the neigbourhood of Trinity-Bellwoods is here, and the entirety of the Park, it's also a call back to the old name of "Trinity-Spadina")

I'd also maybe update "Don Valley East", since it now covers part of Scarborough, to something like:
Don Mills--Wexford or "Don Valley East--Wexford"

[toaster]

Here's what I had in mind for Northern Ontario:



Both Thunder Bay ridings are just over the 25% threshold, without eating into Kenora. TBRR takes in some Thunder Bay suburbs in the McKellar area, akin to how the map looked in the 1990s. TBSN (re-named Thunder Bay-Superior), wraps all the way down Lake Superior to the northern edge of the Soo.

AMK gets nuked, of course. Kap area goes to TJB, Elliot Lake area goes to the Soo (new riding of Sault Ste. Marie-Elliot Lake, or maybe just "Algoma"). Nickel Belt gets Manitoulin (Nickel Belt-Manitoulin), while it loses West Nipissing to Nipissing-Timiskaming. Sudbury/Nickel Belt borders get re-jigged. All of the ridings in the NE have about 100,000 people.

This really is to the detriment of Northeastern Ontario, keeping the Northwest with such low numbers.  The Soo and all areas around it identify as part of Northeastern Ontario.  They get their news from CTV Northern Ontario, they do not belong with Thunder Bay.  There's no scenario where the Northwest should maintain 3 ridings, especially when it is to the detriment of the rest of the North. Thunder Bay is a large urban city, there's not justification for it being given "special consideration", especially when the people of remote areas of Attawakispat and Peawanuck are forced into a riding over 100k.  Might I add, the Northernmost parts of some provinces (Quebec), and the territories are geographically larger than any in Northwestern Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.

(1) Fort York-Harbourside (2) Fort-York-Waterfront (3) Fort York-Lakeshore, proposed from best to worst, but all better than Spadina-Fort-York.

"Harbourside" isn't really a name used here, but Harbourfront is, Fort York--Harbourfront would work.

But yes, better then the current. I'm still team Trinity-Fort York (almost all of the neigbourhood of Trinity-Bellwoods is here, and the entirety of the Park, it's also a call back to the old name of "Trinity-Spadina")

I'd also maybe update "Don Valley East", since it now covers part of Scarborough, to something like:
Don Mills--Wexford or "Don Valley East--Wexford"

Most likely the commission will come up with something boring like Don Valley-Scarborough or something like that.

Here's what I had in mind for Northern Ontario:



Both Thunder Bay ridings are just over the 25% threshold, without eating into Kenora. TBRR takes in some Thunder Bay suburbs in the McKellar area, akin to how the map looked in the 1990s. TBSN (re-named Thunder Bay-Superior), wraps all the way down Lake Superior to the northern edge of the Soo.

AMK gets nuked, of course. Kap area goes to TJB, Elliot Lake area goes to the Soo (new riding of Sault Ste. Marie-Elliot Lake, or maybe just "Algoma"). Nickel Belt gets Manitoulin (Nickel Belt-Manitoulin), while it loses West Nipissing to Nipissing-Timiskaming. Sudbury/Nickel Belt borders get re-jigged. All of the ridings in the NE have about 100,000 people.

This really is to the detriment of Northeastern Ontario, keeping the Northwest with such low numbers.  The Soo and all areas around it identify as part of Northeastern Ontario.  They get their news from CTV Northern Ontario, they do not belong with Thunder Bay.  There's no scenario where the Northwest should maintain 3 ridings, especially when it is to the detriment of the rest of the North. Thunder Bay is a large urban city, there's not justification for it being given "special consideration", especially when the people of remote areas of Attawakispat and Peawanuck are forced into a riding over 100k.  Might I add, the Northernmost parts of some provinces (Quebec), and the territories are geographically larger than any in Northwestern Ontario.

The other alternative is to make Thunder Bay its own riding, and expand Kenora to take in everything else. Not sure how well that would fly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Question, who would win a dedicated Thunder Bay riding?

[toaster]

Question, who would win a dedicated Thunder Bay riding?

Truly a three way race. And a western CON leader actually helps the Cons in Thunder Bay.

[lilTommy]

Would the commission, due to Northern Ontario's population and no protections on ridings (unlike at the provincial level) remove a seat in the North East, just 2 vs 3? Say a Kenora--Rainy River and Thunder Bay Superior. Any new SSM-Algoma seat and Timmins--James Bay would take in some areas of TB--Superior North.

[Hatman 🍁]

Question, who would win a dedicated Thunder Bay riding?

Truly a three way race. And a western CON leader actually helps the Cons in Thunder Bay.

The Conservatives are stronger in the rural areas, so a strictly urban Thunder Bay riding would be fairly safe for the Liberals.

Would the commission, due to Northern Ontario's population and no protections on ridings (unlike at the provincial level) remove a seat in the North East, just 2 vs 3? Say a Kenora--Rainy River and Thunder Bay Superior. Any new SSM-Algoma seat and Timmins--James Bay would take in some areas of TB--Superior North.

Removing even one seat will be very unpopular, I don't think the commission will entertain the idea of removing even more than that in the north.

[lilTommy]

Question, who would win a dedicated Thunder Bay riding?

Truly a three way race. And a western CON leader actually helps the Cons in Thunder Bay.

The Conservatives are stronger in the rural areas, so a strictly urban Thunder Bay riding would be fairly safe for the Liberals.

Would the commission, due to Northern Ontario's population and no protections on ridings (unlike at the provincial level) remove a seat in the North East, just 2 vs 3? Say a Kenora--Rainy River and Thunder Bay Superior. Any new SSM-Algoma seat and Timmins--James Bay would take in some areas of TB--Superior North.

Removing even one seat will be very unpopular, I don't think the commission will entertain the idea of removing even more than that in the north.

I would say an Urban Thunder Bay riding would be a Liberal/NDP fairly competitive seat. The NDP does better in the city, and particularly looks like the south end (Based on 2019 polls, don't know about 2021 poll-by-poll). So In an off year for the Liberals the NDP could win here easily, but ya this would be a marginal Liberal seat. The Liberals would always be watching out for the NDP.

I didn't think It would be a popular choice to reduce the seats, but it becomes hard to make the case to justify three seats?

[Krago]

Here are the twenty largest federal ridings in descending order, along with their 2021 Census populations.

FEDuid	FEDprov	FEDname	FEDpop_2021	FEDarea (km2)
62001	NU	Nunavut	36,858	1,836,994
61001	NT	Northwest Territories	41,070	1,127,712
24001	QC	Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou	89,087	731,401
60001	YT	Yukon	40,232	472,345
46003	MB	Churchill--Keewatinook Aski	81,258	420,975
59028	BC	Skeena--Bulkley Valley	89,689	325,625
47003	SK	Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River	71,488	296,772
35042	ON	Kenora	64,261	285,752
10004	NL	Labrador	26,655	258,539
59024	BC	Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies	108,998	249,105
35107	ON	Timmins--James Bay	80,785	241,783
24046	QC	Manicouagan	88,525	234,442
48023	AB	Fort McMurray--Cold Lake	110,163	142,870
48024	AB	Grande Prairie--Mackenzie	119,586	111,865
48028	AB	Peace River--Westlock	107,223	106,395
35002	ON	Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing	80,310	92,667
59004	BC	Cariboo--Prince George	111,226	82,820
48034	AB	Yellowhead	99,218	77,134
35106	ON	Thunder Bay--Superior North	83,325	76,106
47002	SK	Cypress Hills--Grasslands	68,314	75,611

[MaxQue]

Government is looking at the formula again, so Quebec doesn't lose a seat.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8659357/canada-quebec-commons-seats/

[Poirot]

Government is looking at the formula again, so Quebec doesn't lose a seat.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8659357/canada-quebec-commons-seats/

The article says "Because Quebec’s population has declined, it stands to lose an MP" but that is false.

I hope the legisaltion does not take time and ends up delaying the process and a new map is not ready in time.

[adma]

The article says "Because Quebec’s population has declined, it stands to lose an MP" but that is false.

Yeah: ironically, compared to a lot of Western jurisdictions, Quebec's growth has actually been fairly solid, at around 6-8% per decade since 1971.  Under that circumstance, deleting a seat seems like jumping the gun, unless Canada adopted a uniform representation number a la the USA...

[Ontarois]

• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.

(1) Fort York-Harbourside (2) Fort-York-Waterfront (3) Fort York-Lakeshore, proposed from best to worst, but all better than Spadina-Fort-York.

"Harbourside" isn't really a name used here, but Harbourfront is, Fort York--Harbourfront would work.

But yes, better then the current.

Absolutely Fort York-Harbourfront.  I should not post while drunk...

[Krago]

Here are some boundary proposals found on twitter:

https://twitter.com/kylejhutton/status/1500818791701352453

https://twitter.com/kylejhutton/status/1500818793534312451

https://twitter.com/FedBoundaries/status/1499424888695791617

https://twitter.com/connordpeters/status/1499367677575446532

https://twitter.com/baribeaup/status/1500860102466809857

https://twitter.com/jkhatepage/status/1501347185291456517

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1501258266256543756?t=dbtxb1CW5umueZF...

Here it is! A big hand to our colleague the506 on here.

Question, who would win a dedicated Thunder Bay riding?

Quoting you to notify you as promised - excuse the non sequitur.