Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

This is my favourite of your Calgary maps so far. I might suggest trading Inglewood and Ramsay from Calgary Glenmore to Calgary Centre in exchange for Bankview, just because Bankview is better connected to the rest of Calgary Glenmore while Inglewood/Ramsay are separated from the rest of Calgary Glenmore by a large industrial area. But that's more of a minor note.

Here is a version that incorporates your suggestions and adds a Varsity for Renfrew neighbourhood swap that keeps Varsity in the same riding as the University of Calgary.  Please let me know if this is an improvement.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Yet another Calgary map!

The consensus seems pretty strong on concentrating Calgary Centre around downtown by fusing the northern part of Centre and southern part of Confederation. I also took the suggestion to create a whole riding south of Fish Creek. In the end, not too different from what's been proposed by others so far.

Here's a twist though - it is possible to create 11 ridings fully within Calgary and avoid a rurban Calgary--Airdrie riding. This would require the new riding to be an Airdrie--Chestermere type one, uniting the two Calgary suburbs with surrounding rural areas. Here's a proposal for that:



Not sure about the names, but they could be:
Midnapore
Shepard
Forest Lawn
Skyview
Willow Park
Glenmore
Centre
Nose Hill
Northern Hills
Rocky Ridge
Signal Hill
Airdrie--CochraneChestermere

[Njall]

This is my favourite of your Calgary maps so far. I might suggest trading Inglewood and Ramsay from Calgary Glenmore to Calgary Centre in exchange for Bankview, just because Bankview is better connected to the rest of Calgary Glenmore while Inglewood/Ramsay are separated from the rest of Calgary Glenmore by a large industrial area. But that's more of a minor note.

Here is a version that incorporates your suggestions and adds a Varsity for Renfrew neighbourhood swap that keeps Varsity in the same riding as the University of Calgary.  Please let me know if this is an improvement.

Yup, I think that modification makes it better.

[DL]

Its worth noting that if the recently announced Liberal-NDP Confidence and Supply Agreement actually lasts through to 2025 - it would mean that the next federal election would be fought using the new map!

[Poirot]

Legislation to protect provinces from losing representation:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/feds-look-to-amend-constitution-act-to-impose-new-minimum-seat-count-for-each-province-1.5833425

I don't know how much time it will take to adopt this. I hope the Quebec commission didn't rush to work on a 77 seats map. I guess it's not a big surprise so maybe they were looking also at 78.

[DL]

Legislation to protect provinces from losing representation:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/feds-look-to-amend-constitution-act-to-impose-new-minimum-seat-count-for-each-province-1.5833425

Over time this could lead to the House of Commons getting bigger and bigger because as the relative populations of Ontario, BC and Alberta grow they will need more seats and they will never be able to substract any from any other province.

[MaxQue]

Legislation to protect provinces from losing representation:

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/feds-look-to-amend-constitution-act-to-impose-new-minimum-seat-count-for-each-province-1.5833425

Over time this could lead to the House of Commons getting bigger and bigger because as the relative populations of Ontario, BC and Alberta grow they will need more seats and they will never be able to substract any from any other province.

Well, the current state is that no province can have less MPs than senators or less than in the 80's, so, the only other province who can lose seats is Quebec (back to 75). So, it's not really a problem from that angle, because it only affects 3 seats at most.

The problem you are mentionning is caused by other clauses which are not changed here.

[IAMCANADIAN]

I don't understand the NDP's support for the Quebec representation thing either from a political angle or an ideological one.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't understand the NDP's support for the Quebec representation thing either from a political angle or an ideological one.

It's consistent with their reasoning from the last redistribution, but then again they held a majority of seats in Quebec 10 years ago.

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

If Quebec keeps its marginal seat, would that affect the apportionment elsewhere in any way?

[Krago]

Here is the allotment of Quebec's old/new 78 federal seats across the regions:

AREA	REGION	2021 CENSUS POP.	QUOTA
N	Abitibi-Témiscamingue	147,082	1.35	28.97
N	Capitale-Nationale	757,950	6.95
N	Côte-Nord	88,525	0.81
N	Lanaudière	528,598	4.85
N	Laurentides	636,083	5.84
N	Mauricie	273,055	2.51
N	Nord-du-Québec	45,740	0.42
N	Outaouais	405,158	3.72
N	Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean	275,552	2.53
ML	Laval	438,366	4.02	22.41
ML	Montréal	2,004,265	18.39
S	Bas-Saint-Laurent	199,039	1.83	26.62
S	Centre-du-Québec	250,445	2.30
S	Chaudière-Appalaches	433,312	3.98
S	Estrie	337,701	3.10
S	Gaspésie–Îles-de-la-Madeleine	89,342	0.82
S	Montérégie	986,140	9.05
S	Montérégie Est	605,480	5.55
	Quebec	8,501,833	78

[Philly D.]

If Quebec keeps its marginal seat, would that affect the apportionment elsewhere in any way?

No, because this is Canada, so everything tends to be done in the most boring way possible... the only change is updating the Grandfather clause, so no possibility for an extra seat elsewhere.

In Quebec, it is possible to produce a VERY tight map with 78 seats (<4% average variance) that includes four -15 to -20% variances in the East and North which I am finalizing and is good with regards to MRCs.

[Krago]

I've updated my map with new alternatives in the Belleville and Ajax areas.

I've also added a 78-seat map of Quebec.  All ridings are within 10% of the provincial average with four exceptions:
- Terrebonne's population is 46 above the 10% threshold
- Abitibi--Baie-James--Nunavik--Eeyou, Gaspésie--Les Îles-de-la-Madeleine, and Manicouagan are all between 18%-19% below the provincial quotient

https://bit.ly/Canada343

Please let me know what you think.


Now with new alternatives in Lévis (thanks Philly D!) and Halton Region.

[Philly D.]

I can finally present my map of Quebec!

The starred ridings are exactly the same as now. Hatman will be pleased with the names; the "grocery lists" are OUT and the number of ridings named after people has been slashed. No accents on capital letters. As a reminder, with 78 ridings the provincial quotient is 108,998. No MRC changes since 2011 which matter.

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Lachenaie—Mascouche	113,111	+3,77%	The new riding on the North Shore, comprised of Mascouche, Terrebonne east of R-125, Charlemagne and the old town of Le Gardeur. "Lachenaie" refers to the local seigneurie of La Chenaye and the old town of the same name, merged into Terrebonne.
Terrebonne	114,245	+4,81%	Terrebonne east of R-125, Bois-des-Filion and Ste-Sophie. Probably the least satisfying riding of all; while Bois-des-Filion works well in spite of being in Laurentides region (one moves seamlessly from the Urbanova community to it), Ste-Sophie is an agricultural town in La Rivière-du-Nord MRC which doesn't fit well anywhere and amazingly failed to join the Montréal CMA after the Census. In any case, the A-15 corridor urgently needs to shed people.
Montcalm—Matawinie	110,643	+1,51%	St-Hippolyte, Montcalm MRC and Matawinie MRC presently in Joliette. Major recreational community of interest.
Blainville	111,728	+2,50%	Blainville, Lorraine, Ste-Anne-des-Plaines and some Mirabel. In the couronnes of Montréal, relatively less heed was paid to MRCs or regional borders in favour of keeping cities intact and preventing growth sinks.
Rivière-des-Mille-Iles	114,207	+4,79%	St-Eustache, Boisbriand, Rosemère and Ste-Thérèse.
Deux-Montagnes—Mirabel	108,438	-0,51%	More people in Deux-Montagnes MRC, hence the name. Adds the town of Deux-Montagnes; loses eastern area to Blainville. Mirabel was split because it is based on an amalgamation of distinct, separate communities which still have their identity; this is the more rural part. Contains Kanesatake.
Prévost	112,823	+3,51%	St-Jérôme, Prévost, Piedmont, Ste-Anne-des-Lacs and Ste-Adèle. Les Pays-D' En-Haut MRC is now in three ridings, and La Rivière-du-Nord MRC in four, but road links and population growth make this preferable. "Prévost" is the traditional name for the provincial riding centred on Saint-Jérôme and is in the center of the riding.
Laurentides—Labelle	108,702	-0,27%	Drops St-Sauveur and environs; picks up St-Adolphe-d'Howard. This town is in Les Pays-D' En-Haut MRC and right next to Ste-Agathe-des-Monts, the largest town in the riding, connected by R-329 and both accessed by exit 83 on A-15.
Alfred-Pellan	113,608	+4,23%
Laval—Les Iles	104,523	-4,11%	Drops Fabreville for more of Chomedey.
Laval—Vimy	114,364	+4,92%	Added "Laval" to the name, since, after all, Vimy Ridge is in France! Also reunited Pont-Viau.
Marc-Aurèle-Fortin	105,871	-2,87%	Gains Fabreville, loses a bit of territory to the east.

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Gatineau	107,778	-1,12%	Picks up area between Av. Gatineau and Montée Paiement north of A-50; potential for sizeable population increase.
Hull—Aylmer	116,418	+6,81%	Dumps what's left of the Plateau and picks up a built up part of Aylmer in Pontiac.
La Petite-Nation—Argenteuil	111,815	+2,58%	Gains Val-des-Monts from Pontiac but loses St-Adolphe-d'Howard. More Outaouais than Laurentides, hence the name change.
Pontiac	110,424	+1,31%	See above. Contains Kitigan Zibi.

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Verchères—Saurel	110,168	+1,07%	Entirely within Montérégie and centred around A-30, it solves the problem of having the long South Shore riding continuously need to expand. Present riding of Verchères minus Boucherville and Saint-Mathieu-de-Beloeil, gains Pierre-de-Saurel MRC.
Arthabaska—Nicolet	108,955	-0,04%	Nicolet-Yamaska, Les Sources & Arthabaska MRCs, minus St-Louis-de-Blandford, Maddington, Daveluyville & Ste-Anne-du-Sault.
*Drummond	107,967	-0,95%
L'Assomption	114,522	+5,06%	Loses Charlemagne and Le Gardeur; gains L'Epiphanie and Lavaltrie. "L'Assomption" refers to the MRC although it is still split in two.
Joliette—Berthier	114,985	+5,49%	Joliette MRC and that part of Berthier—Maskinongé in Lanaudière minus Lavaltrie (which is in Montréal CMA.) Joliette and D'Autray MRCs together are too big for one riding.
Maskinongé—Saint-Maurice	106,395	-2,39%	Maskinongé MRC, Shawinigan and Trois-Rivières west of A-55. Traditional name even if town of Saint-Maurice not in riding. Shawinigan has FINALLY stopped losing population, although it's less than the rest of the riding (provincially in Maskinongé.)
Trois-Rivières	111,949	+2,71%	The bulk of the city not in one of the two neighbouring ridings. If Mékinac MRC could be split, it would be possible to put the city in only two ridings.
Portneuf—Champlain	110,234	+1,13%	Portneuf, Les Chenaux, Mékinac MRCs, La Tuque and St-Louis-de-France. Portneuf will keep the variance stable. Champlain is the traditional name for the west of the riding although the village itself, directly across from the former nuclear plant, has less than 900 people in it.

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Valcartier	109,490	+0,45%	Based on Jacques-Cartier MRC, St-Augustin-de-Desmaures and the old town of Val-Bélair. Toponym refers to a boulevard, CFB Valcartier and Village Vacances Valcartier (home of the ice hotel), all in the riding. Variance will rise although should not become a positive exception.
*Louis-Hébert	111,323	+2,13%	This riding has not changed one iota since 1988. No good reason to change this time either.
Louis-Saint-Laurent	116,030	+6,45%	Based on Vanier—Les Rivières arrondissement and L'Ancienne-Lorette. Can't think of a good name, but it is certainly better than "Québec-Est" (which USED to be east of downtown, but gradually shifted westward and may explain the reluctance by Commissions to use cardinal points.) Population is a bit high and there a still room for quite a bit of growth.
*Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles	109,690	+0,63%
Stadacona—Limoilou	118,437	+8,66%	This is composed of the boroughs of Limoilou-La Cité and Beauport south of the A-40 and west of the Beauport river. Largest riding in the province but community of interest is too good to pass up, and furthermore the heritage/institutional status of part of the riding limits potential densification. I prefer "Vieux-Québec" to refer the southern part (it puts the riding on the map) but some may complain.
Premières-Seigneuries	108,677	-0,29%	L'Ile-d'Orléans and La Côte-de-Beaupré MRCs and eastern Beauport. Name refers to local school board and the presence of La Route de la Nouvelle-France and Avenue Royale which span the riding.
Côte-du-Sud	112,522	+3,23%	Bellechasse, Montmagny and L'Islet MRCs minus St-Roch-des-Aulnaies and Ste-Louise, Les Etchemins MRC minus those parts in Beauce right now, plus the former towns of Pintendre and St-Jean-Chrysostome.
Lévis	105,889	-2,85%	The city north of A-20, plus St-Rédempteur and Charny. Not a successor of either current "Lévis" riding.
Lotbinière—Bois-Francs	106,972	-1,86%	No clear predecessor; closer to pre-2004 Lotbinière ridings. Composed of Lotbinière, Bécancour and L'Erable MRCs, the part of Arthabaska MRC not in Arthabaska—Nicolet, St-Lambert-de-Lauzon, and the former towns (of Lévis) of St-Etienne-de-Lauzon and Breakeyville. This riding spans the A-20, R-116, R-132, has major agricultural concerns and is more homogeneous than a riding respecting regional divisions and including Thetford Mines. "Bois-Francs" is a traditional toponym for the western part of the riding — in fact Centre-du-Québec used to be called "Bois-Francs" when it was paired with Mauricie — and the area is also quite wooded (it produces a lot of maple syrup and cranberries.) Eastern part of the riding keeps the population growing slowly.

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
*Abitibi—Baie-James—Nunavik—Eeyou (not on map)	89,087	-18,27%	Negative exception could be justified, but growth patterns may forestall this.
*Abitibi—Témiscamingue (not on map)	103,735	-4,83%
*Lac-Saint-Jean (not on map)	103,886	-4,69%
Jonquière	100,648	-7,66%
Chicoutimi—Charlevoix	99,798	-8,44%
*Côte-Nord	88,525	-18,78%	The name change from Manicouagan was proposed in a Private Members' bill and would match administrative region. Will become a negative exception shortly; nothing can be done about it. Contains two incompletely enumerated reserves.
Gaspésie—Iles-de-la-Madeleine	89,342	-18,03%	Matches administrative region of same name; likely negative exception during map life cycle. Contains Listuguj.
Rimouski—Matanie—Matapédia	108,792	-0,19%	"Matanie" is the new name for the MRC containing Matane. Gains massively in population but loses in area.
Bas-Saint-Laurent	91,876	-15,71%	5 most westerly MRCs in Bas-Saint-Laurent, minus Rimouski and St-Anaclet-de-Lessard, plus St-Roch-des-Aulnaies and Ste-Louise (exit 430 on A-20.) Low population but allows better ridings elsewhere on the Rive-Sud. Should not become nor merits a negative exception during map life cycle.

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Beauce	113,451	+4,09%	Same as presently, plus Courcelles, St-Ludger and St-Robert-Bellarmin. These additions breach the regional boundary, but they have the same area code 819, would match with the provincial boundaries, and was asked for at the last redistribution.
Mégantic—Saint-François	105,969	-2,78%	MRCs of Les Appalaches and Le Haut-Saint-François; Le Granit MRC not in Beauce; Stoke and Le Val-Saint-François MRC presently in Richmond—Arthabaska less St-Denis-de-Brompton. Any riding with both Compton and Les Appalaches MRCs will create complaints and may disrupt Anglophone minority. Not completely satisfactory in terms of distances, and location of constituency offices may be a thorny issue, but the latter MRC is now only in two ridings. Negative variance may increase although Stoke and Ascot Corner should prevent collapse.
Sherbrooke—Brompton—Stanstead	105,145	-3,53%	Le Val-Saint-François MRC now in Shefford and St-Denis-de-Brompton; Memphrémagog MRC in Compton—Stanstead; Coaticook MRC; Lennoxville, Deauville—Rock Forest—St-Elie-d'Orford and Bromptonville arrondissements; present riding of Sherbrooke west of A-410. Possibly a better name could be found.
Sherbrooke—Fleurimont	110,492	+1,37%	The "Fleurimont" toponym is for symmetry with the previous riding; if it could drop "Sherbrooke" the status quo here would do nicely.
Shefford	107,239	-1,61%	Loses Le Val-Saint-François MRC part and Ste-Angèle-de-Monnoir. However, regional border changes keep this a Montérégie-Estrie riding rather than becoming just a Montérégie riding.
Brome-Missisquoi	107,253	-1,60%	No more Le Haut-Richelieu MRC; recent changes to regional borders put it entirely in Estrie.
*Saint-Hyacinthe—Acton	105,086	-3,59%	"Bagot" becomes "Acton" to match the name of the smaller MRC (as a Private Members' bill proposed.)

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Saint-Jean—Napierville	109,808	+0,74%	Provincial riding of Saint-Jean plus Les-Jardins-de-Napierville MRC; the latter MRC goes from being in 2 ridings to just this one.
Chambly—Iberville	108,438	-0,51%	Bassin de Chambly, Marieville, Ste-Angèle-de-Monnoir plus Le Haut-Richelieu MRC not in Saint-Jean—Napierville. "Iberville" refers to the provincial riding.
Beloeil	110,607	+1,48%	No clear predecessor. Beloeil, McMasterville, St-Basile-le-Grand, Mont-Saint-Hilaire, Otterburn Park, St-Jean-Baptiste, St-Mathieu-de-Beloeil and Ste-Julie.
Montarville	105,497	-3,21%	Major changes from present riding; now centred around the provincial riding (Boucherville and St-Bruno) and eastern Longueuil. Primed for growth.
Longueuil	108,727	-0,25%
Saint-Lambert	113,839	+4,44%	Not the best name.
Brossard—Greenfield Park	108,722	-0,25%
*La Prairie	114,968	+5,48%

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Châteauguay—Huntingdon (not on map)	104,710	-3,93%	Ditches Les-Jardins-de-Napierville MRC for Le-Haut-Saint-Laurent one; Kahnawake could go here. Contains Akwesane.
Suroît—Soulanges	106,808	-2,01%	MRC of Vaudreuil-Soulanges not in Vaudreuil, and provincial riding of Beauharnois.
Vaudreuil	112,217	+2,95%	Vaudreuil-Dorion, Ile Perrot, Hudson and Saint-Lazare. Next redistribution will be very tricky if trends hold.
Lac-Saint-Louis	107,146	-1,70%	The part of Ste-Geneviève borough in the present riding moves to Pierrefonds-Dollard.
Pierrefonds—Dollard (in red)	112,444	+3,16%

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Montréal—Rivière-des-Prairies	107,941	-0,97%	I decided to realign this and Montréal—Anjou along borough lines, as well as resuscitate the "Montréal" toponym for several ridings—why should it be the only city in Canada not to have its name in ridings?
Montréal—Anjou	107,184	-1,66%	As the southern part has no single toponym it could unite itself under, the "Montréal" name is particularly suitable here.
Montréal—Bourassa	113,702	+4,32%	Added "Montréal" to give this riding better visibility, and slightly enlarged it.
Ahuntsic—Cartierville	110,105	+1,02%	Sheds some population to Montréal—Bourassa.
*Saint-Léonard—Saint-Michel	115,553	+6,01%
*Hochelaga	108,264	-0,67%
*Rosemont—La Petite-Patrie	112,909	+3,59%
*Villeray—Parc-Extension	110,813	+1,67%	Changed the name to the part of the borough it lies in; Papineau is a north-south street for an east-west riding.
*Montréal—Côte-Saint-Luc	108,494	-0,46%	Now has the toponyms of the two largest entities, instead of just that of the third largest, and also avoids the language issue with "Mount Royal".
*Montréal—Saint-Laurent	102,104	-6,32%	Yet again, see Montréal—Rivière-des-Prairies. Nothing good to add despite low size.
Dorval—Lachine—LaSalle	113,265	+3,91%	Sheds some people to Montréal—Verdun.
Montréal—Verdun	113,778	+4,39%	Takes area near Carrefour Angrignon.

Name	Population	Variance	Comments
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount (in orange)	112,333	+3,06%	Slight expansion to the north of Westmount, now including St. Joseph Oratory.
Montréal—Outremont	116,496	+6,88%	Loses area near Oratory and south of Rue Mount-Royal on the Plateau (Av. Duluth is basically for pedestrians); the latter is now the border due east up to the railway. Changes enough for a new name; the presence of several areas makes "Montréal" rather suitable.
Montréal—McGill	116,751	+7,11%	Choosing a name is difficult, and this one is not completely satisfactory, but the loss of the northern part makes "Laurier—Sainte-Marie" untenable. Contains all of Milton Parc, McGill campus and more of downtown.
Montréal—Ile-des-Soeurs	115,044	+5,55%	"Ville-Marie" is outdated. Keeps the Old Port and all of Sud-Ouest borough.

The three westernmost ridings on the South Shore are Krago's ridings, as are the ridings covering Chicoutimi and Jonquière (in the latter two cases it was more a case of taking them for granted rather than establishing they were indeed the best solution.) This is not surprising, given that they are in some sense at edges of the province and therefore have very limited options.

I modified this entry countless times and probably still will. However, all things considered, I am extremely proud of this map. The average variance is extremely low at 3,84%, and this with four ridings below -15%. Three further ridings are between -5% and -10%. Ten ridings are above 5%, spread across the province; one each in Outaouais and Montérégie, two each in Québec City and Lanaudière, and four in Montréal. 61 of 75 ridings are within 5% of the average.

The map is less good regarding administrative splits; compared to the present map, L'Islet, Rimouski-Neigette, Le Granit, Arthabaska, D'Autray and Les Pays-d'en-Haut MRCs gain a split and La Rivière-du-Nord MRC two, while only Le Val-Saint-François and Les Jardins-de-Napierville lose one, for a net increase of 6. Meanwhile, regional boundaries now hold between Gaspésie and Bas-Saint-Laurent, Mauricie and Lanaudière, and only one riding Montérégie crosses boundaries instead of three. However, two ridings, up from one, cross between Estrie and Chaudière-Appalaches, Capitale-Nationale région now has ridings crossing with Mauricie and Saguenay--Lac-Saint-Jean, and three ridings cross between Laurentides and Lanaudière, for a net increase of 2. However, the location of these splits and the supposed lesser importance of these boundaries near Montréal, in my view, make the tradeoff for a low variance more than worthwhile.

[beesley]

I learned how to take screenshots of my computer! I can finally present my map of Quebec! (Once I find out how to upload images... watch this space!)

You see at the top of the forum page there is a menu going across from one side to the other? Well the second option from the right is called Gallery. If you go there and upload your images like you would on any other site, then once you have upload them you can get a link which you can paste into a post and the image will appear in your post. Hope that makes some sense.

[Philly D.]

Thank you!

[DC Al Fine]

I had mentioned before that Halifax county is entitled to almost exactly five ridings. This won't happen due to rural bias and difficulties making rural political geography work without bleeding into Halifax. In any case, here is five riding Halifax:





Red: Halifax
Blue: Halifax West
Green: Dartmouth-Eastern Passage
Yellow: Hammonds Plains-St. Margaret's
Purple: Sackville-Eastern Shore

[Poirot]

I'm in admiration of some people's work to draw entire provinces.

I see proposals that removes ridings in Eastern Quebec. Last redrawing it was proposed but finally abandoned. I imagine this time communities will go to hearings if they lose their riding.

In 2012 redistribution the proposal was a Charlevoix -Saguenay riding. In the final report the commission wrote:

That type of problem arose again in a different context for the Charlevoix region, which was merged with the Saguenay region under our proposal. Those two regions saw no relationship between themselves, much less a community of interest. We were therefore logically requested to abandon our proposal to unite the eastern portion of Charlevoix and the southern part of Saguenay in one electoral district. As is the case in five other electoral districts, the accommodation that such a decision entails obliges us to consider it as exceptional.

Maybe the numbers are worst after a decade but there could be opposition again this time.

Vaudreuil has become too big and proposals are to shift some south in Salaberry. There is no other choice for Montérégie. I was wondering if putting Ile Perrot with Montreal west island could be a possibility. It's not the same administrative region but it's not like the Montreal ridings are big. I think it was done in decades past.

It seems proposals get rid of Avignon-La Mitis. It looks too small in population numbers but I looked at Elections Canada website at the numbers of electors on the list and it's not that much smaller than some Montreal ridings.  Avignon had 59,626 electors while Outremont had 65,143 and Saint-Laurent 66,181 even if they have 100,000 in population. There is a big difference in population but not so much in electors. The federal criteria is population while the provincial one is electors.

[Philly D.]

I'm in admiration of some people's work to draw entire provinces.

I see proposals that removes ridings in Eastern Quebec. Last redrawing it was proposed but finally abandoned. I imagine this time communities will go to hearings if they lose their riding.

In 2012 redistribution the proposal was a Charlevoix-Saguenay riding.

[...]

Maybe the numbers are worse after a decade but there could be opposition again this time.

[...]

It seems proposals get rid of Avignon-La Mitis. It looks too small in population numbers but I looked at Elections Canada website at the numbers of electors on the list and it's not that much smaller than some Montreal ridings.  Avignon had 59,626 electors while Outremont had 65,143 and Saint-Laurent 66,181 even if they have 100,000 in population. There is a big difference in population but not so much in electors. The federal criteria is population while the provincial one is electors.

The numbers are considerably worse:
-- Avignon-La Mitis collapsed from ~ -26% in the last report to about ~ -37% and lost population since 2016. The situation is a little better in the 3 other Eastern South Shore ridings (they gained in pop since 2016,) but Rimouski and Gaspésie are at the knife-edge of being statutory exceptions.
-- The Abitibi and Ungava areas also declined in relative terms, but not enough to pose any concern.
-- The Côte-Nord is another story entirely, going from -6% to -18,78% and losing more than 5,000 people (even after considering the two reserves that failed to be enumerated.) We didn't hear about it last time because the negative variance was quite small for such a large riding.
--Charlevoix and Saguenay region together lost about 400 people since 2011. This may not look like much, but when the electoral quotient increases by 7,5%...

Yet our proposals have been somewhat generous to these regions, unlike the (shudder) official 2012 proposal. It failed then for three reasons. First, it left the border between the Rivière-du-Loup and Bellechasse centred ridings unchanged, which caused the three proposed ridings to be THE 3 largest ridings in the province (thus ripe for attack.) Secondly because there was opposition to a 19th riding in Montréal. Last time it qualified for 18,65 ridings so it got an extra one in the proposal, this time it only counts for 18,39 ridings so it won't (so there won't be one to remove in the Report.) Finally, the addition of three ridings to the province reduced their relative importance in the grand scheme of things.

We at least shifted the above boundary eastwards (me to the pre-1997 situation; Krago was a little less generous.) Furthermore, the present Bécancour and Mégantic ridings are so small and are already so extended that they are difficult to keep at all, and moving the Bellechasse riding eastwards frees areas to allow boundary changes elsewhere. Even with our relative generosity, I have an average variance of 3,84% (Krago is about 5%) and this seems too good to pass up, at least for now.

And while communities will certainly show up, the Commission will have its limits. In 2001 the provincial Commision proposed removing three ridings in the area from Chaudière-Appalaches to Gaspésie in favour of Laval, Soulanges and Mirabel; the report then removed three ridings from Montréal (the one going to Laval was then cancelled.) In 2008 they came back again and there were even more representations but in the end Matane, Lotbinière and Kamouraska were scrapped in favour of Sainte-Rose, L'Assomption and Sanguinet (the proposal scrapped Beauce-Nord and Gaspé instead.)

Vaudreuil has become too big and proposals are to shift some south in Salaberry. There is no other choice for Montérégie. I was wondering if putting Ile Perrot with Montréal West Island could be a possibility. It's not the same administrative region but it's not like the Montréal ridings are big. I think it was done in decades past.

It was done up to 1997. However, back then it was the "Vaudreuil" riding taking ALL of Vaudreuil-Soulanges and only a few towns on the Montréal side; Lac-Saint-Louis was Lakeshore and included both Dorval and Lachine. Since then the population has more than doubled in Vaudreuil-Soulanges MRC. It is the fastest growing area in the province; more than Mascouche, more than Mirabel, more than anywhere. Ile Perrot is actually 40k in population; the rest of the MRC is 122k, much too large, yet not so large that the part of Salaberry across the river would be substantial.

And one last tidbit from the Commission's website:

The Commission expects to publish its proposal toward the end of April 2022.

If the government wants to pass C-14, they'd better hurry!

[Philly D.]

The official 2021 poll-by-poll results are now available. Now we can measure the electoral consequences of our proposals. Joy!

And on another note, would it be possible to take the area between the rail line and the Rideau River by the Transitway and Billings Bridge and put it in Ottawa Centre, or is it hopelessly Ottawa South? Then we could put Riverside South in Ottawa South from Carleton and we would no longer have to shoehorn part of West Carleton into a Lanark-based riding.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I had mentioned before that Halifax county is entitled to almost exactly five ridings. This won't happen due to rural bias and difficulties making rural political geography work without bleeding into Halifax. In any case, here is five riding Halifax:





Red: Halifax
Blue: Halifax West
Green: Dartmouth-Eastern Passage
Yellow: Hammonds Plains-St. Margaret's
Purple: Sackville-Eastern Shore

The political barriers will still exist, but in terms of administrative sub-geographies it seems reasonably simple to assign six ridings to the rest of NS, which from an outsider's perspective look coherent:

Seat 1 - the Cape Breton Region Municipality (slightly more than 10% above the average, but only just)
Seat 2 - the rest of Cape Breton, Guysborough County, Antigonish County, Pictou County south of Pictou Harbour
Seat 3 - Cumberland County, Colchester County, the rest of Pictou County
Seat 4 - more or less the present Kings-Hants riding
Seat 5 - Luneburg County, Queens County, Shelburne County and the eastern half of Yarmouth County
Seat 6 - everything else

[Hatman 🍁]

The official 2021 poll-by-poll results are now available. Now we can measure the electoral consequences of our proposals. Joy!

And on another note, would it be possible to take the area between the rail line and the Rideau River by the Transitway and Billings Bridge and put it in Ottawa Centre, or is it hopelessly Ottawa South? Then we could put Riverside South in Ottawa South from Carleton and we would no longer have to shoehorn part of West Carleton into a Lanark-based riding.

Why would you do that? West Carleton has similar demos as Lanark County (angry rural Anglos/Irish) and have a history of being in the same riding. Riverside South is pretty far from the rest of Ottawa South, and is much more suburban. It belongs in a more suburban riding like Carleton. And the river makes for such a good border, why change it?

[Philly D.]

The official 2021 poll-by-poll results are now available. Now we can measure the electoral consequences of our proposals. Joy!

And on another note, would it be possible to take the area between the rail line and the Rideau River by the Transitway and Billings Bridge and put it in Ottawa Centre, or is it hopelessly Ottawa South? Then we could put Riverside South in Ottawa South from Carleton and we would no longer have to shoehorn part of West Carleton into a Lanark-based riding.

Why would you do that? West Carleton has similar demos as Lanark County (angry rural Anglos/Irish) and have a history of being in the same riding. Riverside South is pretty far from the rest of Ottawa South, and is much more suburban. It belongs in a more suburban riding like Carleton. And the river makes for such a good border, why change it?

Because I am planning on leaving the Lanark-Frontenac riding intact... any change there ripples all the way to Oshawa and the area between Kingston and Oshawa is traditionally one of the harder areas in the province to draw along with Northern Ontario and York Region. The area in question is essentially apartment blocks that are cut off from the rest of the riding, so I wanted to find a way to free up space in Ottawa South. I say wanted, because I found another way to relieve pressure on Ottawa (and left Ottawa South intact.)

[Krago]

I say wanted, because I found another way to relieve pressure on Ottawa (and left Ottawa South intact.)

Ottawa-Hull?

[EastAnglianLefty]

I thought I'd take a look at what the Ontario map might look like if you were to follow British norms for constituency reviews - ie concentrating on keeping municipalities together and ensuring that every riding is in quota, with no special circumstances.

First things first, here were the groupings I got:

South Western Ontario
Windsor: 2 ridings
Essex County-Chatham-Kent--Lambton County-Middlesex County-London: 8 ridings
Brant-Brantford-Norfolk County-Haldimand County-Elgin County: 3 ridings
Oxford: 1 riding
Perth County-Huron County-Bruce County: 2 ridings

Golden Horseshoe
Niagara region: 4 ridings
Hamilton: 5 ridings
Wellington County-Guelph: 2 ridings
Waterloo region: 5 ridings
Halton region: 5 ridings
Mississauga: 6 ridings
Brampton: 6 ridings
Toronto: 24 ridings
King-Vaughan: 3 ridings
Markham: 3 ridings
Richmond Hill-Whitchurch-Stouffville: 2 ridings
Rest of York region: 2 ridings
Pickering-Uxbridge: 1 riding
Ajax: 1 riding
Rest of Durham region: 4 ridings

Central Ontario
Grey County-Dufferin County-Caledon: 2 ridings
Simcoe County-Muskoka: 5 ridings
Kawartha Lakes-Haliburton County-Peterborough County-Peterborough: 2 ridings
Northumberland County-Quinte West-Belleville-Hastings County: 2 ridings

Eastern Ontario
Frontenac County-Kingston-Lennox and Addington-Prince Edward County: 2 ridings
Stormont, Dundas & Glengarry: 1 riding
Renfrew County: 1 riding
Ottawa-Leeds & Grenville-Prescott & Russell-Lanark County: 11 ridings

Northern Ontario
Kenora-Rainy River-Thunder Bay: 2 ridings
Cochrane-Timiskaming: 1 riding
Algoma: 1 riding
Manitoulin-Sudbury District-Greater Sudbury-Nipissing-Parry Sound: 3 ridings

There's a lot of pitchfork bait there, but I'll start with the most pitchforky bit - Northern Ontario.



The first thing to say is that the UK norm would generally be to keep smaller urban areas united whenever possible, so rather than splitting Sudbury or Thunder Bay between seats I've given them their own compact ridings. Very obviously this is not the Canadian way, but then again this isn't a serious proposal.

The second thing to say is that some of the municipal boundaries look quite odd, but the point of the exercise was to stick with them so I have.

Northwestern Ontario: 116200
Thunder Bay: 118524
Cochrane-Timiskaming: 108011
Sault Ste. Marie: 114510
Manitoulin-West Nipissing-Sudbury Outer: 109760
Parry Sound-North Bay: 112552

Those riding names are an unholy mash-up of UK and Canadian norms - if you committed one way or the other you could no doubt do much better.

I've mapped out Southern Ontario, Niagara and a few other regions, and I'm working on others. Will post them as I go, or at least until I annoy you all enough that you ask me to stop.