Canada Federal Representation 2024

[adma]

(1) I don't know why Quebec, of all provinces, would lose a seat (unless it was deemed to have gotten too *many* in the last redistribution)

(2) only under a Trudeau Liberal government could they get away with even *entertaining* the idea of a lost seat--the outcry under a Conservative government would be deafening.  (Ironically, it's the Conservatives under whom Quebec gained seats for the first time in ages)

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https://globalnews.ca/news/8289530/bloc-quebecois-quebec-parliament-seat-proposal/

Blanchet promises to release "fires of hell" over Quebec losing a seat in Parliament.

Why would Blanchet do this? If Quebec is shrinking or growing slowly, well, too bad.

Actually, by Western standards, Quebec *isn't* growing all that slowly--it's more on a growth par w/Minnesota than Michigan, put it that way.  So there's a reasonable case for them retaining that seat, particularly when the Atlantic Provinces are growing even more slowly and Man/Sask are still catching up w/stagnant or lost growth in the past, and they still retain their delegations...

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I'd also do some renaming:
Toronto Centre; to something like Cabbagetown-Old York or Cabbagetown-St.Lawrence
Toronto-Danforth; to Riverdale-Danforth
I'm not a fan of how Toronto mixes some ridings with "Toronto-..." and others with just neighbourhood names, while Etobicoke and Scarborough use the standard City-Area naming

Remember that Toronto-Danforth was originally named Broadview-Greenwood until then-MP Dennis Mills petitioned for its corny renaming circa Y2K.

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I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

Provincially, St. Catharines-Brock was like that as recently as 1995.

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I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

Forest Hill-Rosedale is obviously the best name for that riding, but the commission would certainly go with St. Paul's-Rosedale instead IMO.

When was the area called St. David-St. James? Provincially, the area was in St. George and St. David ridings once upon a time, though St. James makes sense considering the riding is home to St. James town. A name with Cabbagetown in it would preferable, but again - the commission is not going to drop Toronto Centre as a name.

I was thinking that when it comes to a "Forest Hill-Rosedale" sort of seat, that'd be the likeliest place for prospective Justin successor Chrystia Freeland to run--Carolyn Bennett getting up there in years, and a "University" seat more prospectively vulnerable to the NDP (not that that's ever dissuaded the Libs)

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The article says "Because Quebec’s population has declined, it stands to lose an MP" but that is false.

Yeah: ironically, compared to a lot of Western jurisdictions, Quebec's growth has actually been fairly solid, at around 6-8% per decade since 1971.  Under that circumstance, deleting a seat seems like jumping the gun, unless Canada adopted a uniform representation number a la the USA...

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Ironically, Alberta was ahead of the game in electing a Chinese-Canadian MLA--and for the Socreds in 1971, of all things

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Ho_Lem

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Hard copy version for Ontario came with my daily newspaper this morning.

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Very exciting!

Sault Ste Marie --> Add Hornepayne, rename Algoma. Not sure what to do with Chapleau though.

Or, Sault-Algoma?

Collingwood - Blue Mountains --> I like the name, and don't mind that it crosses the Simcoe / Grey boundary.  In fact, these areas should really be in one county as they are essentially becoming 1 community.

That'd only be the case if Collingwood actually *annexed* Blue Mountains, the way that Quinte West annexed Murray Twp.  Otherwise, if it were all about "essentially 1 community", Fulton & DeKalb counties in Georgia might as well amalgamate.

Brampton - Mayfield West --> I'm not sure what area Mayfield West is? The South Caledon community in this riding is named Southfields I believe. I would change the name. Brampton - Caledon South, or Brampton - Southfields Village

Mayfield West seems to be the budding catchall for *all* of that S Caledon suburban-spillover zone, of which Southfields is only one element.

Brampton Chinguacousy --> I get the change to Indigenous names, but Springdale I think fits better here.

Actually, "Chinguacousy" bears the name of the former township which surrounded Brampton until regionalization in 1973--indeed, Bramalea Civic Centre originally served as municipal offices for Chinguacousy Township (within which the "new town" of Bramalea was built in the 60s and 70s)

Humber --> Interesting riding.  We know they needed to cross the Humber river because Etobicoke is too populated for only 3 ridings, but this is a weird place to do it. The demos are very different, ultra rich Kingsway area of Etobicoke, and the old York/Weston areas.

Arguably no more "weird" a mix than that in the now-former St Paul's riding.  (And one presumes, perfect for Michael Ford to run for provincial re-election next time)

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Though said "parts other than" are already part of the community council.  (And as recently as the 90s, the boundaries of York West bled the *other* way, *into* Etobicoke)

Taiaiako'n - High Park --> Parkdale is a meaningful name to what has always been a working class (and lower SES) community, not sure replacing that name does much good. If an indigenous name needs to be included here, then maybe remove the High Park name and just name it Parkdale - Taiaiako'n. The Northern Boundary change is odd to me, although I think it only affects a few dwellings, but I think the railway is a more natural buffer between communities.

Yeah, in this case, I agree that the indigenous name change feels a bit arbitrary, and "Parkdale" is a name with a rich history.  As for the boundary change, much of what lies S of St Clair has already been "hipster Junction" gentrifying, so at *this* point there might be more of a community of interest w/what lies south...


 

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Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Though said "parts other than" are already part of the community council.  (And as recently as the 90s, the boundaries of York West bled the *other* way, *into* Etobicoke)

Well, it's the Etobicoke York Community council (i.e., Etobicoke and York Community council) this part of the city being the York part of that council, not the Etobicoke part.

Or up here, the parts that were formerly North York (which until the 1920s was *all* part of York Twp).  Still, the community council element has enabled a cross-Humber common political identity to "sink in", rightly or wrongly.  And in this case, Etobicoke still wields a dominant identity...

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Very exciting!

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Why not Etobicoke North--Weston?

The trouble with that is that the *actual* former town of Weston is S of the 401, i.e. at the N end of the proposed Humber riding...

[adma]

Very exciting!

Etobicoke - North --> Might need a name change as it also crosses the Humber and includes parts other than Etobicoke.

Why not Etobicoke North--Weston?

The trouble with that is that the *actual* former town of Weston is S of the 401, i.e. at the N end of the proposed Humber riding...

I was thinking about Weston Rd, which is probably a more relevant geographic reference at this point than the former town of Weston which hasn't existed since 1967.

But even if it hasn't existed since 1967, the former town still retains a *very* distinct, discrete identity as a neighbourhood--it didn't just dry up and blow away with amalgamation.  (It'd be like last redistribution when they tried giving the name "Oak Ridges" to King-Vaughan, overlooking the fact that while the riding may straddle the namesake moraine, the actual community of Oak Ridges was further to the E--thus Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill.)

The problem is that the E-of-the-Humber neighbourhoods have a relatively weak "name identity"--in municipal-designation terms, there's Humber Summit/Humbermede/Humberlea; though I'd also consider "Emery Village" as a possibility, as that's the historical name for the Weston/Finch crossroads and has gotten a BIA/redevelopment-boosted reboot lately...

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Brampton - Mayfield West --> I'm not sure what area Mayfield West is? The South Caledon community in this riding is named Southfields I believe. I would change the name. Brampton - Caledon South, or Brampton - Southfields Village

Mayfield is the road that separates Brampton and Caledon, so it does make sense for the local geography.

Yes it is, but I don't think there's any precedence in naming ridings based on one of their bordering roads. There's also a part of Brampton that is North of Mayfield. What's weird is adding "West" after Mayfield, when Mayfield runs from one end of Peel to the other (and all is included in this riding).  If it is being named after the new suburban developments in the west (along Mayfield), then the name doesn't cover the communities of Southfields and South Caledon. Just an odd choice.

Actually, Mayfield West has, for Caledon planning purposes, become the official omnibus label for *all* the cross-border subdivisions, Southfields included.  (And remember, too, that "Mayfield West" is named not for the road per se, but relative to the former hamlet which the road is named after--which happens to be east of the subdivisions we're discussing.  And as for the N-of-Mayfield part of Brampton, that's the former hamlet of Snelgrove.)

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 People don't say "I live in Simcoe" like they do other regions.

Well, Simcoe is a county, not a region.  It didn't get caught up in the 60s/70s craze for regional municipalities; nor did it get caught up in the Harris-era craze for single-tier city-county entities like Chatham-Kent or the "de-regionalized" Haldimand & Norfolk.

But you do raise a certain point in that perhaps for younger generations, "county identity" is archaic even when the counties still exist--back in the 60s/70s it was a common fixture of Ontario geographic self-identity to "know one's counties" (that is, *geographic* counties, and the N Ontario districts, inclusive of the so-called "independent" cities within, the way Stats Canada classifies them), but in an age where GPS has supplanted common geographic literacy, most people probably *don't* have that county-centric mental map of the province.

People might not say out loud "I live in Simcoe" (unless they lived in Simcoe, Ontario, a wholly different place); but the way I see it, if things worked the old way they still ought to be well aware that wherever they lived was part and parcel of Simcoe County, and even if they didn't live there, they'd recognize Simcoe County on the map.  If it's come to the point where "Simcoe" as a county self-identifier might as well go the way of "Ontario County" (subsumed within Durham Region in the 70s, and its northern tip passed on to, er, Simcoe County--and there was even an "Ontario" riding as recently as the 90s), then it's a sad state of affairs...

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Ha, ha. It would remain Toronto Centre, or they would start calling it Toronto Centre-Rosedale again.

Don Valley South?

Or St George-St David, if one wanted to get into provincial history...

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Holy Rosemont-La Petite Patrie, Batman! ;-)

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But yeah everything is within about 3000 votes except the Liberal stronghold of Superior North so run the best campaign and you’ll probably pick up the majority of the North.

And even TB-Superior North is more of a "Patty Hajdu" riding than anything; so even it should be considered "in play" in her presumed absence (or even not).  And remember: the provincial equivalent went from reelecting Mike Gravelle in '18 to relegating the open-seat Libs to 3rd in '22.

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Of course, the Dartmouth notionality's asterisked by the Con candidate pulling out in '21.

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York Centre

Downsview

Or maybe Downsview-Wilson Heights (or the other way around)?  There's definitely a "divide" btw/E and W of the Dufferin/Allen corridor to be acknowledged...

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The irony is that if Western alienation is hung up over Quebec being "over quota"--well, technically, both Manitoba and Saskatchewan are, too.