Canada Federal Representation 2024

[lilTommy]

Six seat Brampton

Nice! what's the pops?

That leaves us with what to do with Caledon?

[lilTommy]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

QQ, what tool are you using to build these electorates? I'd love to try and play around myself (for the UK boundary commission they had a free super user friendly tool) just curious! thanks!

[Krago]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

QQ, what tool are you using to build these electorates? I'd love to try and play around myself (for the UK boundary commission they had a free super user friendly tool) just curious! thanks!

I use MapInfo Pro.  Unfortunately, a licence will set you back a few hundred dollars.  I tried switching to QGIS but all the new tricks were too much for this old dog to learn.

election-altas.ca is busy creating a Riding Builder similar to DRA.  The first version should be available soon.

[Krago]

I've added two new Alternatives:  the City of Hamilton and the York University area

A friend lives in Flamborough--Glanbrook and describes it as a 'monstrosity'.  He asked me to do better.  I think I have.

[vileplume]

Six seat Brampton

Why wouldn't Bramalea be called Brampton - Bramalea for consistency? It's entirely within the City of Brampton.

[Hatman 🍁]

Six seat Brampton

Nice! what's the pops?

That leaves us with what to do with Caledon?

They're all roughly 110k.

[Hatman 🍁]

Six seat Brampton

Why wouldn't Bramalea be called Brampton - Bramalea for consistency? It's entirely within the City of Brampton.

That's an option too, though I thought it was a rather redundant name (too many Brams). Back in the old days, there was a riding called Bramalea-Gore-Malton. No mention of Brampton in the name back then.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've added two new Alternatives:  the City of Hamilton and the York University area

A friend lives in Flamborough--Glanbrook and describes it as a 'monstrosity'.  He asked me to do better.  I think I have.

I really like your alternate Hamilton map. I would say add it to you main map.

[lilTommy]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

QQ, what tool are you using to build these electorates? I'd love to try and play around myself (for the UK boundary commission they had a free super user friendly tool) just curious! thanks!

I use MapInfo Pro.  Unfortunately, a licence will set you back a few hundred dollars.  I tried switching to QGIS but all the new tricks were too much for this old dog to learn.

election-altas.ca is busy creating a Riding Builder similar to DRA.  The first version should be available soon.

That's exciting! thanks!

I will second Hatman, I like the alternate for Hamilton much better then the current boundaries

[Krago]

Here is the data I used to allocate seats across Ontario:

[adma]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

Forest Hill-Rosedale is obviously the best name for that riding, but the commission would certainly go with St. Paul's-Rosedale instead IMO.

When was the area called St. David-St. James? Provincially, the area was in St. George and St. David ridings once upon a time, though St. James makes sense considering the riding is home to St. James town. A name with Cabbagetown in it would preferable, but again - the commission is not going to drop Toronto Centre as a name.

I was thinking that when it comes to a "Forest Hill-Rosedale" sort of seat, that'd be the likeliest place for prospective Justin successor Chrystia Freeland to run--Carolyn Bennett getting up there in years, and a "University" seat more prospectively vulnerable to the NDP (not that that's ever dissuaded the Libs)

[Krago]

I've made two changes to the map:

• replaced the bizarre current Hamilton ridings with a much-acclaimed alternative
• moved the Humber River--Black Creek/Downsview boundary from Black Creek to Grandravine Dr. to keep more of the York University community in HRBC

You can find the new, improved map here.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Also, when I looked at my Ontario chart I wondered what a Hamilton-Brant riding would look like, and what ridings would be created by the ripple effects.  Well, wonder no more.  Check the Alternatives box to find out.


P.S. After talking with a friend from B.C., I've made a few changes to the ridings in the Burnaby area. 

P.P.S. The boundary between Brantford--Brant and Ancaster--Flamboyant--Brant (as Autocorrect calls it) has been simplified by using Hwy 403 and the Hamilton/Brant County border.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've made two changes to the map:

• replaced the bizarre current Hamilton ridings with a much-acclaimed alternative
• moved the Humber River--Black Creek/Downsview boundary from Black Creek to Grandravine Dr. to keep more of the York University community in HRBC

You can find the new, improved map here.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Also, when I looked at my Ontario chart I wondered what a Hamilton-Brant riding would look like, and what ridings would be created by the ripple effects.  Well, wonder no more.  Check the Alternatives box to find out.

Not terrible tbh.

BTW, I've been beta testing the new riding builder (made by election-atlas/ca / the506) and made a 37 seat Ottawa and a 100 seat Toronto map for fun:

[Ontarois]

BTW, I've been beta testing the new riding builder (made by election-atlas/ca / the506) and made a 37 seat Ottawa and a 100 seat Toronto map for fun:

Can anyone play with the beta version?  The link above does not connect to a valid web page (even after I substitute a period for the slash before "ca").

[Ontarois]

Ouch, a three-way split in St. Catharines? Tbf I guess Niagara Centre already takes up some parts of the city, and I don't know much about redistricting. I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

At present, the city of St. Catharines is split among three different provincial/federal ridings:
(a)  Most of the city is in St. Catharines riding (represented by Jennifer Stevens provincially and Chris Bittle federally)
(b)  the southern "sixth" of the city in in Niagara Centre (represented by Jeff Burch provincially and Vance Badway federally)
(c)  the westernmost part of the city outside the urban area boundary is in Niagara West (represented by Sam Oosterhoff provincially and Dean Allison federally)

By hook or by crook, Niagara Falls riding has to shed people and Niagara West has to gain people.  So NOTL has to "get the heck outa' Dodge" go somewhere.

Niagara Falls riding was in the top three of most populated ridings when it was created from the 2011 Census.  Even with just Niagara Falls and Fort Erie left, it is still bigger than the other Niagara Ridings.

Of course, that could be fixed by moving the communities of Crystal Beach and Ridgeway in southwestern Fort Erie from Niagara Falls riding to Niagara Centre, and in turn moving the part of the Western Hill neighbourhood in St. Catharines that is west of Louth Street from Niagara Centre to Niagara West.  But Krago won't even deign that as an alternative for fantasy riding map purposes...  
 :-(

[Ontarois]

I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

Provincially, St. Catharines-Brock was like that as recently as 1995.

Actually NOTL was in a riding with parts of St. Catharines as recently as the day before the 1999 provincial election (when southern Ontario provincial ridings first became contiguous with federal ridings).

[lilTommy]

Ouch, a three-way split in St. Catharines? Tbf I guess Niagara Centre already takes up some parts of the city, and I don't know much about redistricting. I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

At present, the city of St. Catharines is split among three different provincial/federal ridings:
(a)  Most of the city is in St. Catharines riding (represented by Jennifer Stevens provincially and Chris Bittle federally)
(b)  the southern "sixth" of the city in in Niagara Centre (represented by Jeff Burch provincially and Vance Badway federally)
(c)  the westernmost part of the city outside the urban area boundary is in Niagara West (represented by Sam Oosterhoff provincially and Dean Allison federally)

By hook or by crook, Niagara Falls riding has to shed people and Niagara West has to gain people.  So NOTL has to "get the heck outa' Dodge" go somewhere.

Niagara Falls riding was in the top three of most populated ridings when it was created from the 2011 Census.  Even with just Niagara Falls and Fort Erie left, it is still bigger than the other Niagara Ridings.

Of course, that could be fixed by moving the communities of Crystal Beach and Ridgeway from Niagara Falls to Niagara Centre, and in turn moving the part of the Western Hill neighbourhood in St. Catharines that is west of Louth Street from Niagara Centre to Niagara West.  But Krago won't even deign that as an alternative for fantasy riding map purposes...    :-(

With 4 ridings, I don't think you can avoid splitting St.Catharines.

What if NOTL stayed in Niagara falls but Fort Erie moved into Niagara Centre. St.Catherines shifts South to accommodate.
But parts of St.Catharines would probably still be split between three ridings; at 140K people St.Catharines is too big to be all in one, maybe two?   

[DC Al Fine]

BTW, I've been beta testing the new riding builder (made by election-atlas/ca / the506) and made a 37 seat Ottawa and a 100 seat Toronto map for fun:

Can anyone play with the beta version?  The link above does not connect to a valid web page (even after I substitute a period for the slash before "ca").

Electionatlas.ca and the506 are names the developer goes by. The actual product should be released in the next couple weeks.

[Hatman 🍁]

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

 

[Krago]

Ouch, a three-way split in St. Catharines? Tbf I guess Niagara Centre already takes up some parts of the city, and I don't know much about redistricting. I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

At present, the city of St. Catharines is split among three different provincial/federal ridings:
(a)  Most of the city is in St. Catharines riding (represented by Jennifer Stevens provincially and Chris Bittle federally)
(b)  the southern "sixth" of the city in in Niagara Centre (represented by Jeff Burch provincially and Vance Badway federally)
(c)  the westernmost part of the city outside the urban area boundary is in Niagara West (represented by Sam Oosterhoff provincially and Dean Allison federally)

By hook or by crook, Niagara Falls riding has to shed people and Niagara West has to gain people.  So NOTL has to "get the heck outa' Dodge" go somewhere.

Niagara Falls riding was in the top three of most populated ridings when it was created from the 2011 Census.  Even with just Niagara Falls and Fort Erie left, it is still bigger than the other Niagara Ridings.

Of course, that could be fixed by moving the communities of Crystal Beach and Ridgeway from Niagara Falls to Niagara Centre, and in turn moving the part of the Western Hill neighbourhood in St. Catharines that is west of Louth Street from Niagara Centre to Niagara West.  But Krago won't even deign that as an alternative for fantasy riding map purposes...    :-(

With 4 ridings, I don't think you can avoid splitting St.Catharines.

What if NOTL stayed in Niagara falls but Fort Erie moved into Niagara Centre. St.Catherines shifts South to accommodate.
But parts of St.Catharines would probably still be split between three ridings; at 140K people St.Catharines is too big to be all in one, maybe two?  

A couple alternatives that divide St. Catharines between two ridings only:

Plan A
- Leave St Catharines unchanged
- Remove NOTL from Niagara Falls (keep Fort Erie)
- Swap Fonthill and Wainfleet to Niagara Centre in exchange for St Cath part of Niagara Centre to Niagara West
- Create a Wine riding (Niagara North) from Grimsby/West Lincoln/Rural Pelham to NOTL linked by narrow strip of south St Cath

114,782 – St Catharines
117,373 – Niagara North
118,470 – Niagara Centre
127,316 – Niagara Falls




Plan B
- Same as Plan A, except for a three-way trade:
NOTL from Niagara North to Niagara Falls
Fort Erie from Niagara Falls to Niagara Centre (renamed Niagara South)
Thorold from Niagara Centre to Niagara North (renamed Niagara West)

114,782 – St Catharines
122,101 – Niagara West
127,555 – Niagara South
113,503 – Niagara Falls

[Ontarois]

What if NOTL stayed in Niagara falls but Fort Erie moved into Niagara Centre. St.Catherines shifts South to accommodate.
But parts of St.Catharines would probably still be split between three ridings; at 140K people St.Catharines is too big to be all in one, maybe two?  

Fort Erie has always been oriented to Niagara Falls and not Welland -- it borders both, but just barely borders Welland.  In olden times of people reading newspapers, the Niagara Falls Review reported on Fort Erie (and sometime NOTL, but sometimes the St. Catharines Standard reported on NOTL), while the Welland Tribune reported on Port Colborne.

However, the southwestern part of Fort Erie had a unique 894 local phone exchange (again, in the olden times of people phoning on land lions) that allowed residents of that part of Fort Erie to call both Port Colborne and the "old town" of Fort Erie as local calls.  Hence, Ridgeway-Crystal Beach has had long-time links with Port Colborne that the rest of Fort Erie did not have.

In terms of St. Catharines being in two ridings instead of three, it is akin to the Municipality of Chatham-Kent being split in all recent riding redistributions despite having an almost perfect "one quota" population.  The problem is not the municipality itself, but what is around the municipality.  Essex County has had a population of about 2.5 riding quotas and bordered only Chatham-Kent.  Unless one wanted to draw an "Interstate 95" kind of line from rural Essex county to rural Lambton county (someting like "one foot from the water's edge along Lake St. Clair/St. Clair River), Chatham Kent had to be split because of problem originating in Windsor-Essex.

In Niagara, there is a Great Lake on two sides and Americans on the third, creating geographical limits as exist in Windsor Essex for very similar reasons.  With a large population concentration in St. Catharines, it is difficult (not practically impossible as in Chatham-Kent, but nevertheless difficult) to not split St. Catharines in three because of the "knock on" effects in the remaining municipalities in Niagara of leaving St. Catharines in only two ridings.

[DC Al Fine]

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

What's the pop/seat in that hypothetical legislature?

[lilTommy]

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

 

NOW map out the winning party for each seat!
I'm sure it would be easy enough, it looks like you wiki page is based on 2018 Provincial vote?

[Hatman 🍁]

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

What's the pop/seat in that hypothetical legislature?

About 13-14K

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

 

NOW map out the winning party for each seat!
I'm sure it would be easy enough, it looks like you wiki page is based on 2018 Provincial vote?

Not going to bother mapping it, but this is my guess on how each seat voted in 2018 (I'm hoping when its ready, the app will give vote totals):

Northwest (9)   
Kiiwetinoong   NDP
Lake of the Woods-Red Lake   PC
Kenora   PC
Fort Frances-Rainy River   NDP
Dryden   PC
Atikokan-Ignace-Sioux Lookout   PC
Neebing-Kakabeka Falls   PC
Lake Nipigon   Lib
Superior   NDP
   
Northeast (9)   
Mushkegowuk-James Bay   NDP
Kapuskasing-Hearst   NDP
Iroquois Falls-Cochrane   NDP
Timmins West   NDP
Timmins Centre   NDP
Timmins East   NDP
Kirkland Lake-Englehart   NDP
Temiskaming Shores   NDP
Nipissing-Timiskaming-Gogama   NDP
   
Algoma-Manitoulin (10)   
Sault Ste. Marie-Goulais   PC
Sault Ste. Marie-Prince   PC
Sault Ste. Marie West   NDP
Sault Ste. Marie East   NDP
Sault Ste. Marie North   NDP
Sault Ste. Marie-Echo Bay   PC
Huron Shores-Chapleau   NDP
Elliot Lake-Serpent River   NDP
Manitoulin   NDP
Espanola-Killarney   NDP
   
Near North (9)   
Callander-Mattawa River-Algonquin   PC
Amalguin Highlands   PC
Magnetawan-Burk’s Falls-Kearney   PC
Parry Sound   PC
West Nipissing   NDP
North Bay-Widdifield   PC
North Bay Centre   NDP
North Bay-Gateway   PC
North Bay-Ferris   PC
   
Thunder Bay (8)   
Port Arthur-Current River   Lib
Port Arthur Centre   Lib
Port Arthur South   Lib
Fort William West   Lib
Fort William North   NDP
Fort William South   NDP
McIntyre North   Lib
McIntyre-Neebing   Lib
   
Greater Sudbury (12)   
Onaping Falls   NDP
Walden-Copper Cliff   NDP
Cambrian Heights-Azilda   NDP
Val Caron-Val Therese   NDP
Hanmer-Capreol   NDP
Sudbury South-Wanup   NDP
Nickel Centre   NDP
Robinson-Laurentian   NDP
Sudbury Centre   NDP
Nickeldale-Flour Mill   NDP
New Sudbury   NDP
Minnow Lake-Adamsdale   NDP

[Krago]

Ch-ch-changes...

I've replaced the original proposals from Brampton and midtown Toronto with their alternatives.

As always, the proposed New Electoral Map for Canada can be found here:

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Previously, I eliminated all 'York' riding names and now I've gone after 'Toronto'.

• Rosedale is added to Toronto--St. Paul's and the riding is renamed Cedarvale-Rosedale.  Gotta love those ravines!
• After toying with Casa Loma--University (yuck), I decided that name of the new riding stretching from St. Clair to Dundas should be Spadina.  It includes the original Spadina mansion and the Spadina subway station, and contains more than twice the amount of Spadina Road (3.67km) than the incumbent Spadina--Fort York riding (1.76km).
• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.
• Toronto Centre has been re-christened St.Lawrence--St. James to honour two of its distinctive neighbourhoods, as a nod to the historic provincial riding names in the area, and as an up yours to those uppity folks in Cabbagetown.  (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!)