Canada Federal Representation 2024

[lilTommy]

What's the likelihood of major changes to existing riding boundaries outside of Alberta or BC/ON who are getting new seats.

NS was mentioned where Halifax will likely see a rurban seat in the mix, meaning the other seats will mostly increase in size?

[lilTommy]

In Ontario, if we look at population Growth and Decline (chart 9)
https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-population-projections

In the North, only 3 Census Divisions (CD) will see populations decline (Cochrane, Timiskaming and Sudbury... not to be confused with Greater Sudbury which is the actual city. "Sudbury" is the are we know as Nickel Belt). The other CDs will either be flat or see <20% growth. I don't see the North losing seats seeing that provincially they moved in the other direction creating two more seats. There will be a push to protect the North's seat count, so I expect the boundaries to change more then a seat being lost.

In the SW, surprisingly we have 2 CDs that are seeing 0-20% growth, that being Chatham-Kent and Lambton. Middlesex is seeing >35% growth, the CDs along the 401 corridor in the SW are all seeing big population growths. The GTA CDs through to Simcoe and Durham are all in this >35% growth.

In the East, you have 5 CDs in that 0-20%, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington, Leeds & Grenville, Prince Edward and SDG. Ottawa is the only CD growing at the >35%.  

This doesn't really give a lot to play with in terms of boundary changes unless we also start to enlarge some of theses more rural CDs that are still growing, but slower in that 20-35% range.  

[lilTommy]

Thanks for all your suggestions.  I've create another site where I've posted some alternative federal riding options.

https://bit.ly/AltFEDs


Occasionally, I will 'promote' some of these alternatives to my main site.

https://bit.ly/Canada342

I do like the DT TO edits that you made; for Toronto-Danforth, the addition of Corktown/Distillery makes more sense then Cabbagetown. But we have to remember that next redistribution (likely) we should have the huge Portlands and East Harbour developments in place (I think?) which should add thousands to this seat. But that's a then problem.

I still REALLY dislike Rosedale as part of University-Rosedale. I wonder if we could work that out? Cut University Rosedale along Yonge street. Both Would need to shift North; If the University portion shifted to St. Clair, would that be enough quote? in 2008 they used Eglinton in the north but that's when Bloor was the southern boundary and not Dundas. Potential names like Annex-Kensington maybe? The rest of Toronto-St,Pauls could be merged with Rosedale and shift west to take areas away from Don Valley West which is 125K and could sacrifice some. Rosedale-Forrest Hill could be the name. Davenport could also shift east to Oakwood from Rogers?   

I'd also do some renaming:
Toronto Centre; to something like Cabbagetown-Old York or Cabbagetown-St.Lawrence
Toronto-Danforth; to Riverdale-Danforth
I'm not a fan of how Toronto mixes some ridings with "Toronto-..." and others with just neighbourhood names, while Etobicoke and Scarborough use the standard City-Area naming

[lilTommy]

There are no "Montreal" ridings - not even a "Montreal Centre."  Maybe the adding of Toronto Centre to Rosedale riding name in the 1990s set the precedent, but that was much more "defensible" IMO.

Even when one might make sense! We have a community/borough named Montreal-Nord, but the federal riding is mostly Bourassa and I think Honore-Mercier (Quebec's unique approach to name ridings after people)

[lilTommy]

Remember that Toronto-Danforth was originally named Broadview-Greenwood until then-MP Dennis Mills petitioned for its corny renaming circa Y2K.

Yes, it set a terrible precedent. 

Hopefully during the consultation process, after the proposals are put forward, new names for these Toronto ridings can be proposed.

[lilTommy]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

[lilTommy]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

Forest Hill-Rosedale is obviously the best name for that riding, but the commission would certainly go with St. Paul's-Rosedale instead IMO.

When was the area called St. David-St. James? Provincially, the area was in St. George and St. David ridings once upon a time, though St. James makes sense considering the riding is home to St. James town. A name with Cabbagetown in it would preferable, but again - the commission is not going to drop Toronto Centre as a name.

Your right! I was thinking St.George, the old provincial name... based on the super old wards.

Why do you think the commission is so tied to those names (i.e. TO Centre, St. Paul's)

[lilTommy]

Six seat Brampton

Nice! what's the pops?

That leaves us with what to do with Caledon?

[lilTommy]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

QQ, what tool are you using to build these electorates? I'd love to try and play around myself (for the UK boundary commission they had a free super user friendly tool) just curious! thanks!

[lilTommy]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

QQ, what tool are you using to build these electorates? I'd love to try and play around myself (for the UK boundary commission they had a free super user friendly tool) just curious! thanks!

I use MapInfo Pro.  Unfortunately, a licence will set you back a few hundred dollars.  I tried switching to QGIS but all the new tricks were too much for this old dog to learn.

election-altas.ca is busy creating a Riding Builder similar to DRA.  The first version should be available soon.

That's exciting! thanks!

I will second Hatman, I like the alternate for Hamilton much better then the current boundaries

[lilTommy]

Ouch, a three-way split in St. Catharines? Tbf I guess Niagara Centre already takes up some parts of the city, and I don't know much about redistricting. I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

At present, the city of St. Catharines is split among three different provincial/federal ridings:
(a)  Most of the city is in St. Catharines riding (represented by Jennifer Stevens provincially and Chris Bittle federally)
(b)  the southern "sixth" of the city in in Niagara Centre (represented by Jeff Burch provincially and Vance Badway federally)
(c)  the westernmost part of the city outside the urban area boundary is in Niagara West (represented by Sam Oosterhoff provincially and Dean Allison federally)

By hook or by crook, Niagara Falls riding has to shed people and Niagara West has to gain people.  So NOTL has to "get the heck outa' Dodge" go somewhere.

Niagara Falls riding was in the top three of most populated ridings when it was created from the 2011 Census.  Even with just Niagara Falls and Fort Erie left, it is still bigger than the other Niagara Ridings.

Of course, that could be fixed by moving the communities of Crystal Beach and Ridgeway from Niagara Falls to Niagara Centre, and in turn moving the part of the Western Hill neighbourhood in St. Catharines that is west of Louth Street from Niagara Centre to Niagara West.  But Krago won't even deign that as an alternative for fantasy riding map purposes...    :-(

With 4 ridings, I don't think you can avoid splitting St.Catharines.

What if NOTL stayed in Niagara falls but Fort Erie moved into Niagara Centre. St.Catherines shifts South to accommodate.
But parts of St.Catharines would probably still be split between three ridings; at 140K people St.Catharines is too big to be all in one, maybe two?   

[lilTommy]

More fun: What if Northern Ontario was a province, or had a devolved legislature?

 

NOW map out the winning party for each seat!
I'm sure it would be easy enough, it looks like you wiki page is based on 2018 Provincial vote?

[lilTommy]

Ch-ch-changes...

I've replaced the original proposals from Brampton and midtown Toronto with their alternatives.

As always, the proposed New Electoral Map for Canada can be found here:

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Previously, I eliminated all 'York' riding names and now I've gone after 'Toronto'.

• Rosedale is added to Toronto--St. Paul's and the riding is renamed Cedarvale-Rosedale.  Gotta love those ravines!
• After toying with Casa Loma--University (yuck), I decided that name of the new riding stretching from St. Clair to Dundas should be Spadina.  It includes the original Spadina mansion and the Spadina subway station, and contains more than twice the amount of Spadina Road (3.67km) than the incumbent Spadina--Fort York riding (1.76km).
• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.
• Toronto Centre has been re-christened St.Lawrence--St. James to honour two of its distinctive neighbourhoods, as a nod to the historic provincial riding names in the area, and as an up yours to those uppity folks in Cabbagetown.  (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!)

Spadina--Fort York: I like Fort York, or perhaps Trinity--Fort York
"new" Spadina: I'm no fan of ridings named after streets, but you do add more justification with the other mentions. I might try Annex--Kensington
Davenport: Again a street name, but also only about half the neighbourhood is in this riding. I like Dovercourt as a better name, the neighbourhood is fully here and its a way-back to the old provincial riding. If we are going down this streets name path, Dufferin would be better (the street is central here, also the neighbourhood of Dufferin Grove and the Mall is all here. This make more sense then Davenport) But there is a county with that name as a riding so...

[lilTommy]

Ch-ch-changes...

I've replaced the original proposals from Brampton and midtown Toronto with their alternatives.

As always, the proposed New Electoral Map for Canada can be found here:

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Previously, I eliminated all 'York' riding names and now I've gone after 'Toronto'.

• Rosedale is added to Toronto--St. Paul's and the riding is renamed Cedarvale-Rosedale.  Gotta love those ravines!
• After toying with Casa Loma--University (yuck), I decided that name of the new riding stretching from St. Clair to Dundas should be Spadina.  It includes the original Spadina mansion and the Spadina subway station, and contains more than twice the amount of Spadina Road (3.67km) than the incumbent Spadina--Fort York riding (1.76km).
• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.
• Toronto Centre has been re-christened St.Lawrence--St. James to honour two of its distinctive neighbourhoods, as a nod to the historic provincial riding names in the area, and as an up yours to those uppity folks in Cabbagetown.  (YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE!)

Spadina--Fort York: I like Fort York, or perhaps Trinity--Fort York
"new" Spadina: I'm no fan of ridings named after streets, but you do add more justification with the other mentions. I might try Annex--Kensington
Davenport: Again a street name, but also only about half the neighbourhood is in this riding. I like Dovercourt as a better name, the neighbourhood is fully here and its a way-back to the old provincial riding. If we are going down this streets name path, Dufferin would be better (the street is central here, also the neighbourhood of Dufferin Grove and the Mall is all here. This make more sense then Davenport) But there is a county with that name as a riding so...

I forgot Toronto--Danforth!  Danforth--Corktown, anyone?

And Beaches--East York only has the eastern half of the former Borough.  Beaches--Taylor Creek?

Ah, me too!
Riverdale--Corktown I think would be better, or Riverdale--Portlands
Beaches--Woodbine would be my vote

You've renamed York South--West to Weston, which is better, I'd probably go Weston--Mount Denis

[lilTommy]

• Spadina--Fort York is truncated to just Fort York.  Suggestions are welcome.

(1) Fort York-Harbourside (2) Fort-York-Waterfront (3) Fort York-Lakeshore, proposed from best to worst, but all better than Spadina-Fort-York.

"Harbourside" isn't really a name used here, but Harbourfront is, Fort York--Harbourfront would work.

But yes, better then the current. I'm still team Trinity-Fort York (almost all of the neigbourhood of Trinity-Bellwoods is here, and the entirety of the Park, it's also a call back to the old name of "Trinity-Spadina")

I'd also maybe update "Don Valley East", since it now covers part of Scarborough, to something like:
Don Mills--Wexford or "Don Valley East--Wexford"

[lilTommy]

Would the commission, due to Northern Ontario's population and no protections on ridings (unlike at the provincial level) remove a seat in the North East, just 2 vs 3? Say a Kenora--Rainy River and Thunder Bay Superior. Any new SSM-Algoma seat and Timmins--James Bay would take in some areas of TB--Superior North.

[lilTommy]

Question, who would win a dedicated Thunder Bay riding?

Truly a three way race. And a western CON leader actually helps the Cons in Thunder Bay.

The Conservatives are stronger in the rural areas, so a strictly urban Thunder Bay riding would be fairly safe for the Liberals.

Would the commission, due to Northern Ontario's population and no protections on ridings (unlike at the provincial level) remove a seat in the North East, just 2 vs 3? Say a Kenora--Rainy River and Thunder Bay Superior. Any new SSM-Algoma seat and Timmins--James Bay would take in some areas of TB--Superior North.

Removing even one seat will be very unpopular, I don't think the commission will entertain the idea of removing even more than that in the north.

I would say an Urban Thunder Bay riding would be a Liberal/NDP fairly competitive seat. The NDP does better in the city, and particularly looks like the south end (Based on 2019 polls, don't know about 2021 poll-by-poll). So In an off year for the Liberals the NDP could win here easily, but ya this would be a marginal Liberal seat. The Liberals would always be watching out for the NDP.

I didn't think It would be a popular choice to reduce the seats, but it becomes hard to make the case to justify three seats?

[lilTommy]

That would be Vancouver Centre, Condo land. This is the city centre of Vancouver, one of the most densely populated areas, I'd say, in the entire country. I just looked it up, population density of 18,837 residents per sq km it is the most dense. It's also relatively fast growing, over 7% population growth. Vancouver Centre's boundaries have no choice but to shrink.

[lilTommy]

Although putting Powell River with Skeena is tempting, in 2002 it was proposed and everyone thought it was a bad idea and recommended extending Skeena eastwards! Ken Carty might remember that.

Making three ridings for North Van/West Van/Powell River requires sending the northernmost riding of the three well over the Coastal Mountains. Experimentation with ridingbuilder required me not only including the Fraser Canyon but also going near to Kelowna and Kamloops! I can't see the Commission doing that.

CultySmother on Twitter made a pretty good map that adds the extra seat to Vancouver Island which allows a smaller Skeena-Bulkley Valley riding, and puts the Sunshine Coast into the North Island riding (North Island-Powell River-Sunshine Coast, basically).  This allows for the nuking of the Burnaby North-Seymour riding.

I think it would be best to sacrifice Powell River-Sunshine coast separating from an Island riding if it means we get to kill the Burnaby North-Seymour.

[lilTommy]

I have completely revised my BC map.  MPs who enjoy crossing rivers (or inlets or false creeks) will be very disappointed.

bit.ly/Canada343


My 43rd riding is qathat--Sea-to-Sky Country--Fraser Canyon--Nicola--Similkameen.  I've dropped a few names for the map.

What do you think this is, Quebec naming?
... the award for the longest electoral district name? LOL

[lilTommy]

At the Toronto virtual hearing on Thursday night, MPP Jessica Bell (NDP - University--Rosedale) suggested removing Rosedale from her riding and extending the boundary south to Queen St.  She was rather vague on which of her NDP colleagues should receive Rosedale as a parting gift.

Here is my 'Jessica Bell' alternative map for downtown Toronto.  I renamed 'Toronto Centre' as 'Rosedale--Jarvis' just so Hatman could suggest a better name.

Can we just stop adding Rosedale with ANYTHING south of Bloor, it just does not fit. There should be a riding with Rosedale and anything to the North; Adding in anything East of Bloor... something like a Rosedale-Mount Pleasant/Rosedale-Davisville riding. Your Alternative on the map of Cedarvale-Rosedale is a much better working of the seats.

[lilTommy]

The public hearings part of the federal redistribution process has finished (except for one last trip to Thunder Bay next week).  Here are a few thoughts.

Boundaries Commissions have two rules.

(1) You have to draw the boundaries somewhere; and
(2) You can draw the boundaries anywhere you want.

With regard to the first point, commissioners are often told that they 'must' delay the process for one month/six months/ten years for various reasons - municipal elections, census undercounts, unaccounted future growth, 'it ain't broke/nobody wants this now', etc.  They've got a job to do, rules to follow and a deadline to meet.

BUT as long they don't piss off any Acadians (those people litigate!) they can do whatever they want.  Commissioners don't have to worry about making people upset because the new boundaries are bound to make somebody upset.  And ten years from from now, those same people will declare that the boundaries are perfect and should never be changed.

I love making maps, but I don't have the patience to be a Commissioner.  Last night Terry Sheehan, the Conservative MP for Sault Ste Marie, made a presentation to the Ontario virtual hearing.  At one point he segued from a discussion of the sex lives of Northern Ontario dairy farmers to accusing the commission of using 'Soviet-style' calculations in their work.  Still he was far more entertaining than the lady from Northumberland County who droned on and on about the history of the county.  I went downstairs to make nachos, and went I came back she was still talking!

My favourite moments:

- the fellow who accused Justin Trudeau of personally drawing the boundaries in Northern Saskatchewan

 - the woman from Markham who claimed that changing the boundaries of Markham-Unionville would disrupt the efforts of the Tamil community to recover from the civil war in Sri Lanka

 - elected officials who claimed that adding a certain neighbourhood or township to a different riding would mean that they would be ignored by the new MP  (I wish a Commissioner had asked them which parts of their current riding/ward they ignore)

- the anti-PC (Penetanguishene--Couchiching) folks who felt that if 'Simcoe North' was good enough for Sir John A., it was good enough for them

- many, many people who felt that their city/county was indivisible, but if it needed more population then just grab it from a neighbouring city/county

I wonder if anyone spoke out against the Scarborough changes? Last week there were at least two news stories that I saw about the anger over Scarborough losing it's 6th riding. I think Tory is opposed to it too, I just don't know if anyone made any statement at the hearings?

[lilTommy]

Krago, were you the one that submitted the national map to them?

Always the bridesmaid...


Here are the ideal federal boundaries for Niagara Region.

you mean "how to divide a city of under 20K into 4 ridings" region? LOL

[lilTommy]

While I'm sad to see an NDP-made Saskatoon Centre gone, I am much happier to see 3 urban only seats in Saskatoon.
I think Desnethé–Missinippi–Churchill River is a more NDP leaning at this point but Candidate plays a big role; in 2021 the Liberals ran a provincial NDP MLA which I think explains why a huge chunk of NDP vote shifted (not enough to win). The NDP held the seat in 2015, and was within 3% of winning in 2011 (funny enough the NDP candidate in 2011 ran for the Liberals in 2015)

In Winnipeg: Elmwood-Transcona loses Winnipeg proper areas to St.Boniface-St.Vital and stretches into rural areas adding Springfield. The proposal had Lagmodiere blvd (hwy 59) as the boundary, its now the city limits and the tracks. This has to favour the Conservatives, but the NDP have posted +40% the last two elections, but the new boundary must make this at least a little more competitive. 

[lilTommy]

How is it possible for Churchill River to now be notionally Liberal? In the 2021 election the Tory MP won by 22 points 49% to 27%. How can a relatively marginal change in the map turn that into a double digit Liberal lead??!

They removed the most densely populated part of the riding, halving the population of it. So not really a marginal change.

The ridings population is now only 37K! I just ran ridingbuilder again; with half the population being moved into other ridings, as mentioned, this would have been Liberal in 2021, 40+% and NDP in 2019 with 39%.

They've basically removed every portion of municipalities that are south of the Northern Sask Administrative Region line, except a portion of Hudson Bay.
This looks to be an attempt to create an Indigenous riding similar to the Ontario proposal for Kiiwetinoong - Mushkegowuk