Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Krago]

I've made several improvements to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


The good news is that I fixed the error between Kenora and Thunder Bay--Rainy River.  The bad news is that Ontario now has two 'special consideration' ridings below the -25% threshold.

The only Ontario riding that has a population deviation of more than 10% above the provincial average is Brampton Centre.  Any Peelers (Peelites?) in the house?

BREAKING NEWS: I have added the 25 alternative ridings to the Canada342 site to make the comparisons easier to see.  The alternatives are highlighted in magenta (pink).

[Is anyone else old enough to remember when breaking news alerts on tv were actual historical events ('The Space Shuttle has exploded') and not just 'Congressman Fluffernutter is holding a press conference'?]

[Hatman 🍁]

I've made several improvements to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


The good news is that I fixed the error between Kenora and Thunder Bay--Rainy River.  The bad news is that Ontario now has two 'special consideration' ridings below the -25% threshold.

The only Ontario riding that has a population deviation of more than 10% above the provincial average is Brampton Centre.  Any Peelers (Peelites?) in the house?

BREAKING NEWS: I have added the 25 alternative ridings to the Canada342 site to make the comparisons easier to see.  The alternatives are highlighted in magenta (pink).

[Is anyone else old enough to remember when breaking news alerts on tv were actual historical events ('The Space Shuttle has exploded') and not just 'Congressman Fluffernutter is holding a press conference'?]

Ottawa looks perfect!

Now for better names:
Lanark-Stittsville --> Lanark-Carleton
Nepean-Barrhaven --> Nepean (Nepean-Barrhaven isn't that bad, but I doubt they'd bother changing the name)

Now then, how certain are you they are going to make Thunder Bay-Rainy River a special consideration riding? Especially when you can loop it around Thunder Bay taking in some of the city's northwestern suburbs (like it did in the 90s). You're more likely to to be able to give the resulting TBSN riding special status due to how large it would get. Still though, if you're nuking Algima, you could probably stretch TBSN all the way down Lake Superior to the Soo.

[Hatman 🍁]

I also like your alternate Ottawa proposal too. Why didn't I think of just lopping off Morgan's Grant to unite Kanata and Stittsville?

I also prefer lopping off Carleton Heights from Ottawa Centre more than the east half of Carlington, but I could go either way. 

[EastAnglianLefty]

What was the logic for the change from Kenora-Rainy River to Kenora?

[Hatman 🍁]

What was the logic for the change from Kenora-Rainy River to Kenora?

Probably the underpopulation of Thunder Bay-Atikokan needing to take in new territory.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I was asking because it strikes me that if you were to restore Kenora-Rainy River, you could have a compact Thunder Bay riding, rather than splitting the city in two and combining them with widely spread rural areas.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was asking because it strikes me that if you were to restore Kenora-Rainy River, you could have a compact Thunder Bay riding, rather than splitting the city in two and combining them with widely spread rural areas.

Then you'd have a geographically monstrous Kenora-Rainy River riding, and the new Thunder Bay riding would be well over the Northern Ontario average (though, I'm not sure how much that matters)

[EastAnglianLefty]

I was asking because it strikes me that if you were to restore Kenora-Rainy River, you could have a compact Thunder Bay riding, rather than splitting the city in two and combining them with widely spread rural areas.

Then you'd have a geographically monstrous Kenora-Rainy River riding, and the new Thunder Bay riding would be well over the Northern Ontario average (though, I'm not sure how much that matters)

I agree it would be monstrously large, but that seems equally true to me of the current Kenora riding - the Rainy River district is much smaller than Kenora and I can't see that there would be difficulties in representing it that aren't already experienced representing the far-flung reaches of the Kenora district.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, I think there's a chance Scarborough loses a full seat, rather than half a seat like Krago is suggesting. Scarborough with 5 seats gives an average of 125998 per riding.  That's close to rival Etobicoke's average.

Scarborough divides really well into 5 ridings. 2 north of the 401, 3 south.  Split the north by Brimley Rd like on Krago's map, with the western half being Agincourt, and the eastern half being Scarborough North (or Scarborough-Rouge River if we're using old names. Not sure if they'd call it Scarborough-Malvern). Anyway, this unites Malvern in one riding again, and makes the 401 a nice boundary for the south. Two rectangular ridings, both with roughly 125k.

South of the 401, expand Scarborough Centre's eastern boundary to be entirely Bellamy Rd, creating another nice rectangle of 126K. And then, expand Scarborough Southwest eastward with its northeast boundary following the train tracks to Livingston Road, and then south to the lake. This is about 127k.  The rest (~126k) can be named Scarborough East. Maybe keep the name Guildwood, but it's no longer very central in the riding.

[Krago]

I've added two new alternatives to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342

(1)  Brampton has been realigned so that all ridings are now below the magical +10% threshold (128,248).  Hatman will like that the entire Springdale neighbourhood is now in Brampton-Springdale.

(2)  Thunder Bay--Rainy River has grabbed Ignace and Sioux Lookout so that it is now above the magical -25% threshold (87,442).

Please let me know what you think.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've added two new alternatives to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342

(1)  Brampton has been realigned so that all ridings are now below the magical +10% threshold (128,248).  Hatman will like that the entire Springdale neighbourhood is now in Brampton-Springdale.

Cool! I suppose it's not possible to have all of Bramalea in one riding too, eh?

(2)  Thunder Bay--Rainy River has grabbed Ignace and Sioux Lookout so that it is now above the magical -25% threshold (87,442).

Please let me know what you think.

You've isolated the Savant Lake and Pickle Lake areas from the rest of the Kenora riding. Not sure how well that will fly. I have no idea if the commission will tolerate eating into Kenora in the first place, though. They will have to weigh that vs. a mega Thunder Bay-Superior riding.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I've added two new alternatives to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342

(1)  Brampton has been realigned so that all ridings are now below the magical +10% threshold (128,248).  Hatman will like that the entire Springdale neighbourhood is now in Brampton-Springdale.

(2)  Thunder Bay--Rainy River has grabbed Ignace and Sioux Lookout so that it is now above the magical -25% threshold (87,442).

Please let me know what you think.

Ouch, a three-way split in St. Catharines? Tbf I guess Niagara Centre already takes up some parts of the city, and I don't know much about redistricting. I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is my proposal for Toronto (any riding not shown wouldn't have any changes, except in Etobicoke, where I would just adopt Krago's proposal):



So, as you can see, I've eliminated one Scarborough riding. Don Valley East gains Thorncliffe from Don Valley West; Davisville Village is united in Don Valley West (taken from Toronto-St. Paul's), Rosedale is added to Toronto-St. Paul's (making St. Pauls--Rosedale), and taken from University Rosedale. University-Rosedale's southern boundary becomes Queen Street (taking territory from Spadina-Fort York), becoming "Trinity-University". I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

[adma]

I live in St Kits though, it feels a little weird to put downtown and NOTL in the same riding.

Provincially, St. Catharines-Brock was like that as recently as 1995.

[Krago]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

[King of Kensington]

So a Trinity-Spadina of sorts has been re-established (the one Olivia Chow wanted last time around...)

[Krago]

You've isolated the Savant Lake and Pickle Lake areas from the rest of the Kenora riding. Not sure how well that will fly. I have no idea if the commission will tolerate eating into Kenora in the first place, though. They will have to weigh that vs. a mega Thunder Bay-Superior riding.

There are lots of isolated communities in Kenora riding.  What's two more?

Based on my proposal, Thunder Bay--Rainy River has 82,357 people and Thunder Bay--Superior North has 91,296.  The -25% population threshold to avoid being a 'special consideration' riding is 87,443.  So even if you move some 'suburban' Thunder Bay to TBRR, there aren't enough people to bring both ridings above the -25% level (82,357 + 91,296 = 173,653;  87,443 x 2 = 174,886).

So if you don't touch Kenora, where do you find more people?  Hearst?  Foleyet?  Go right down to the city limits of Sault Ste Marie?  None of them are really desirable options.  It's tough enough to argue that Chapleau should be in a seat with Thunder Bay.

[lilTommy]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

[Hatman 🍁]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

Still the Esplanade. As I mentioned on Twitter, I totally neglected to consider how many ridings Central Toronto was worth. I just looked at Scarborough, and saw it should lose a seat. Both both Central Toronto and Scarborough should lose a seat based on the math, but since Toronto is only supposed to lose 1 seat, your idea of having a half and half riding is the only solution. A damn shame, since Scarborough divides in 5 so nicely.

Spadina would be a pretty good name for the new University riding, if it hadn't been co-opted by Spadina-Fort York. Perhaps someone from Toronto would have a better idea for a name.

[Hatman 🍁]

You've isolated the Savant Lake and Pickle Lake areas from the rest of the Kenora riding. Not sure how well that will fly. I have no idea if the commission will tolerate eating into Kenora in the first place, though. They will have to weigh that vs. a mega Thunder Bay-Superior riding.

There are lots of isolated communities in Kenora riding.  What's two more?

Based on my proposal, Thunder Bay--Rainy River has 82,357 people and Thunder Bay--Superior North has 91,296.  The -25% population threshold to avoid being a 'special consideration' riding is 87,443.  So even if you move some 'suburban' Thunder Bay to TBRR, there aren't enough people to bring both ridings above the -25% level (82,357 + 91,296 = 173,653;  87,443 x 2 = 174,886).

So if you don't touch Kenora, where do you find more people?  Hearst?  Foleyet?  Go right down to the city limits of Sault Ste Marie?  None of them are really desirable options.  It's tough enough to argue that Chapleau should be in a seat with Thunder Bay.

Yes, you'd have to have a riding wrapping all the way down to Sault Ste. Marie to make things work IMO. The commission will have to weigh that extreme proposition with eating into Kenora.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

Forest Hill-Rosedale is obviously the best name for that riding, but the commission would certainly go with St. Paul's-Rosedale instead IMO.

When was the area called St. David-St. James? Provincially, the area was in St. George and St. David ridings once upon a time, though St. James makes sense considering the riding is home to St. James town. A name with Cabbagetown in it would preferable, but again - the commission is not going to drop Toronto Centre as a name.

[lilTommy]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

Forest Hill-Rosedale is obviously the best name for that riding, but the commission would certainly go with St. Paul's-Rosedale instead IMO.

When was the area called St. David-St. James? Provincially, the area was in St. George and St. David ridings once upon a time, though St. James makes sense considering the riding is home to St. James town. A name with Cabbagetown in it would preferable, but again - the commission is not going to drop Toronto Centre as a name.

Your right! I was thinking St.George, the old provincial name... based on the super old wards.

Why do you think the commission is so tied to those names (i.e. TO Centre, St. Paul's)

[Hatman 🍁]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

Forest Hill-Rosedale is obviously the best name for that riding, but the commission would certainly go with St. Paul's-Rosedale instead IMO.

When was the area called St. David-St. James? Provincially, the area was in St. George and St. David ridings once upon a time, though St. James makes sense considering the riding is home to St. James town. A name with Cabbagetown in it would preferable, but again - the commission is not going to drop Toronto Centre as a name.

Your right! I was thinking St.George, the old provincial name... based on the super old wards.

Why do you think the commission is so tied to those names (i.e. TO Centre, St. Paul's)

It's rare for commissions (at least in Ontario) to change riding names, especially for names like St. Paul's, which has existed for a long time. Last redistribution, their original map didn't even change the name of Nepean-Carleton, despite the new riding not even having any part of Nepean. Usually riding name changes are done by their MPs later on.

[Hatman 🍁]

Six seat Brampton

[Krago]

Has anyone seen this?

https://citygategis.com/projects/elections-canada