Canada Federal Representation 2024

[lilTommy]

In Ontario, if we look at population Growth and Decline (chart 9)
https://www.ontario.ca/page/ontario-population-projections

In the North, only 3 Census Divisions (CD) will see populations decline (Cochrane, Timiskaming and Sudbury... not to be confused with Greater Sudbury which is the actual city. "Sudbury" is the are we know as Nickel Belt). The other CDs will either be flat or see <20% growth. I don't see the North losing seats seeing that provincially they moved in the other direction creating two more seats. There will be a push to protect the North's seat count, so I expect the boundaries to change more then a seat being lost.

In the SW, surprisingly we have 2 CDs that are seeing 0-20% growth, that being Chatham-Kent and Lambton. Middlesex is seeing >35% growth, the CDs along the 401 corridor in the SW are all seeing big population growths. The GTA CDs through to Simcoe and Durham are all in this >35% growth.

In the East, you have 5 CDs in that 0-20%, Renfrew, Lennox & Addington, Leeds & Grenville, Prince Edward and SDG. Ottawa is the only CD growing at the >35%.  

This doesn't really give a lot to play with in terms of boundary changes unless we also start to enlarge some of theses more rural CDs that are still growing, but slower in that 20-35% range.  

[CascadianIndy]

https://globalnews.ca/news/8289530/bloc-quebecois-quebec-parliament-seat-proposal/

Blanchet promises to release "fires of hell" over Quebec losing a seat in Parliament.

[mileslunn]

I suspect on throne speech, that will be BQ sub-amendment and probably price BQ requires for support.  Certainly if Trudeau goes along with cutting a seat in Quebec, I suspect Liberals pay next time around in Quebec.  Tories also could have opening if they oppose this although might anger some of the Western base who feel we already give too much to Quebec.

Best solution is keep Quebec at 78 seats and add another seat to BC, Alberta, and Ontario so 2 new for BC and Ontario and 4 new for Alberta and that solves the issue.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I don't see it being likely in any realistic scenario for Trudeau to cut a Quebec seat. Does he gain anything from doing it? Does it constitute a net good for him in any case?
Harming the Liberals' prospects in Quebec next time doesn't sound like something Trudeau would do.

[MaxQue]

I don't see it being likely in any realistic scenario for Trudeau to cut a Quebec seat. Does he gain anything from doing it? Does it constitute a net good for him in any case?
Harming the Liberals' prospects in Quebec next time doesn't sound like something Trudeau would do.

The thing is that Trudeau doesn't need to cut a seat, it will just happen if nothing is done.

[Former President tack50]

https://globalnews.ca/news/8289530/bloc-quebecois-quebec-parliament-seat-proposal/

Blanchet promises to release "fires of hell" over Quebec losing a seat in Parliament.

Why would Blanchet do this? If Quebec is shrinking or growing slowly, well, too bad.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://globalnews.ca/news/8289530/bloc-quebecois-quebec-parliament-seat-proposal/

Blanchet promises to release "fires of hell" over Quebec losing a seat in Parliament.

Why would Blanchet do this? If Quebec is shrinking or growing slowly, well, too bad.

SNP are doing similar over Scotland losing a handful of seats in the coming HoC review.

Standard for nationalists, in other words.

[DC Al Fine]

https://globalnews.ca/news/8289530/bloc-quebecois-quebec-parliament-seat-proposal/

Blanchet promises to release "fires of hell" over Quebec losing a seat in Parliament.

Why would Blanchet do this? If Quebec is shrinking or growing slowly, well, too bad.

SNP are doing similar over Scotland losing a handful of seats in the coming HoC review.

Standard for nationalists, in other words.

Also, it's very likely Blanchet will win this fight, so why not?

[adma]

https://globalnews.ca/news/8289530/bloc-quebecois-quebec-parliament-seat-proposal/

Blanchet promises to release "fires of hell" over Quebec losing a seat in Parliament.

Why would Blanchet do this? If Quebec is shrinking or growing slowly, well, too bad.

Actually, by Western standards, Quebec *isn't* growing all that slowly--it's more on a growth par w/Minnesota than Michigan, put it that way.  So there's a reasonable case for them retaining that seat, particularly when the Atlantic Provinces are growing even more slowly and Man/Sask are still catching up w/stagnant or lost growth in the past, and they still retain their delegations...

[Antonio the Sixth]

I support the increasing the size of the HoC as much as possible since it's good for COI representation and reduces malapportionment (honestly, what's stopping it from going to 500 or so? one MP per 50k people or so would be awesome), but honestly, this is just Quebec throwing a hissy fit because that's what Quebec does best.

[mileslunn]

I like the 100,000 rule per riding and for most of our history ridings have been smaller than that but problem is country has grown much faster and ridings not kept paced.  Sticking with constitution I would do the following:

44 for Alberta
51 for British Columbia
144 for Ontario
85 for Quebec

All other provinces would stay the same as still overrepresented and only get more when grow enough. So house would be 387 seats and while not quite perfect at least closer than it is now.

[toaster]

I don't see it being likely in any realistic scenario for Trudeau to cut a Quebec seat. Does he gain anything from doing it? Does it constitute a net good for him in any case?
Harming the Liberals' prospects in Quebec next time doesn't sound like something Trudeau would do.

From people paying attention, it puts a sour taste is our mouths.  Why is he not listening to the recommendations by the non-partisan committee and just going in and doing what he wants.  Heck, just gerrymander everything then too, while you're at it so the Liberals will win without a fight the next 50 times.  The net good for Trudeau is that it appears as though he's *not* nosing around in what shouldn't be partisan.

[StateBoiler]

Since I think little of Trudeau when it comes to making tough but fair decisions, I expect the end result is the Quebec representation remains static.

[DC Al Fine]

Census population results were released this morning, so now we can start guessing about riding changes.

[beesley]

Census population results were released this morning, so now we can start guessing about riding changes.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1491217010474242049?t=so-xsnZx29_yKmT...

And with that comes fun!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Census population results were released this morning, so now we can start guessing about riding changes.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1491217010474242049?t=so-xsnZx29_yKmT...

And with that comes fun!

Oh, is that a Canadian version of DRA?

[DC Al Fine]

Census population results were released this morning, so now we can start guessing about riding changes.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1491217010474242049?t=so-xsnZx29_yKmT...

And with that comes fun!

Oh, is that a Canadian version of DRA?

Yes. Developer posts on Atlas occasionally.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Census population results were released this morning, so now we can start guessing about riding changes.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1491217010474242049?t=so-xsnZx29_yKmT...

And with that comes fun!

Oh, is that a Canadian version of DRA?

Yes. Developer posts on Atlas occasionally.

Oh, excellent! I look forward to playing around with that.

By any chance, do you know if they have a version with 2011 census data as well? It would be greatly helpful for a project I have.

[DC Al Fine]

Census population results were released this morning, so now we can start guessing about riding changes.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1491217010474242049?t=so-xsnZx29_yKmT...

And with that comes fun!

Oh, is that a Canadian version of DRA?

Yes. Developer posts on Atlas occasionally.

Oh, excellent! I look forward to playing around with that.

By any chance, do you know if they have a version with 2011 census data as well? It would be greatly helpful for a project I have.

Hasn't been released yet. We'll have to see. What's the project?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Census population results were released this morning, so now we can start guessing about riding changes.

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1491217010474242049?t=so-xsnZx29_yKmT...

And with that comes fun!

Oh, is that a Canadian version of DRA?

Yes. Developer posts on Atlas occasionally.

Oh, excellent! I look forward to playing around with that.

By any chance, do you know if they have a version with 2011 census data as well? It would be greatly helpful for a project I have.

Hasn't been released yet. We'll have to see. What's the project?

An alternate history that involves different political divisions in North America. It'd be useful to be able to draw districts of the same size and on the same basis on both sides of the RL border.

[Logical]

1 million people gap between quarterly population estimates and actual census numbers. Why does this happen and why do you even use different numbers to allocate seats and draw them? Is there a substantial undercount or is there something else going on here?

For comparison
 
                 Q2 2021 Population Estimates      Census Data
Canada                 38,153,211                       36,991,981   
ON                       14,795,883                       14,223,942                       
QC                         8,587,179                         8,501,833
BC                         5,185,990                         5,000,879
AB                         4,438,772                         4,262,635   
MB                         1,383,638                         1,342,153
SK                         1,180,314                         1,132,505
NS                            985,776                           969,383
NB                            785,819                           775,610
PE                             162,596                           154,331
NT                             45,629                             41,070                            
YT                              42,586                            40,232
NU                             39,336                             36,858

[Hash]

Top 10 fastest growing federal ridings (2016-2021)

1. Edmonton--Wetaskiwin (AB) +31.9%
2. Carleton (ON) +27.7%
3. Brampton West (ON) +24.9%
4. Milton (ON) +20.1%
5. York--Simcoe (ON) +19.7%
6. Spadina--Fort York (ON) +17.9%
7. Calgary Skyview (ON) +17.6%
8. Ville-Marie--Le Sud-Ouest--Île-des-Soeurs (QC) +17.4%
9. Simcoe--Grey (ON) +16.8%
10. Halifax West (NS) +16.3%

Top 10 depopulating ridings (2016-2021)

1. Churchill--Keewatinook Aski (MB) -6.5% *
2. Long Range Mountains (NL) -5.6%
3. Coast of Bays--Central--Notre Dame (NL) -4.5%
4. Manicouagan (QC) -4.3% *
5. Scarborough North (ON) -4.1%
6. Edmonton Strathcona (AB) -3.7%
7. Battlefords--Lloydminster (SK) -3.5%
8. Calgary Forest Lawn (AB) -3.5%
9. Mississauga East--Cooksville (ON) -3.2%
10. Timmins--James Bay (ON) -3%

Top 10 ridings by population (2021)

1. Edmonton--Wetaskiwin (AB) 209,431
2. Calgary Shepard (AB) 163,447
3. Brampton West (ON) 162,353
4. Calgary Skyview (AB) 159,642
5. Banff--Airdrie (AB) 155,580 *
6. Simcoe--Grey (ON) 151,784
7. Durham (ON) 150,235
8. Oakville North--Burlington (ON) 148,936
9. King--Vaughan (ON) 147,695
10. Niagara Falls (ON) 146,404

Bottom 10 ridings by population (2021)

1. Labrador (NL) 26,655
2. Egmont (PEI) 35,925
3. Nunavut 36,858
4. Charlottetown (PEI) 38,809
5. Malpeque (PEI) 39,731
6. Cardigan (PEI) 39,866
7. Yukon 40,232
8. Northwest Territories 41,070
9. Miramichi--Grand Lake (NB) 57,520
10. Madawaska--Restigouche (NB) 60,184

* Excludes census data for one or more incompletely enumerated reserves or settlements.

Full data: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=9810001001

An alternate history that involves different political divisions in North America. It'd be useful to be able to draw districts of the same size and on the same basis on both sides of the RL border.

The easiest and best way to access old census data, like 2011, is the Census Mapper website. You can create your own maps based on census data, at any geographic levels.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, do we know what the seats breakdown by Province would be, barring any changes to the formula?

[Krago]

I am working on my proposal for 342 federal ridings.  So far, I have completed Quebec and the Atlantic provinces.  I hope to have the other regions finished by the weekend.

Here is my new map so far.  Please look it over and let me know if I've made any obvious errors, especially with names.  Any suggestions for improvement are always welcome.

Enjoy.  The Fish-and-Chips riding (Carleton-Charlotte) is back!

[DC Al Fine]

So, do we know what the seats breakdown by Province would be, barring any changes to the formula?

My understanding is that the calculation of the of number of seats each province gets is based on July 2021 population estimates, while boundaries of the the districts is based on the 2021 census. The total seats by province (barring formula changes) remains the same ones that the Chief Electoral Officer published in October.

I.e.
BC and Ontario (+1 each)
Alberta (+3)
Quebec (-1)
Everyone else (nc)