Canada Federal Representation 2024

[DC Al Fine]

As expected, my county would be entitled to almost exactly 5 seats (4.99!) if populations had to be more equal as in the States. Knowing  our boundary commissions, we will get four ridings plus a couple weird rurban seats.

Heck my seat isn't even continguous by road. That's not gerrymandering, just incompetence.

[Antonio the Sixth]

So, do we know what the seats breakdown by Province would be, barring any changes to the formula?

My understanding is that the calculation of the of number of seats each province gets is based on July 2021 population estimates, while boundaries of the the districts is based on the 2021 census. The total seats by province (barring formula changes) remains the same ones that the Chief Electoral Officer published in October.

I.e.
BC and Ontario (+1 each)
Alberta (+3)
Quebec (-1)
Everyone else (nc)

That's. Uh. Very bizarre. Why the hell would you base your apportionment on estimates when you have fresh census data?

[Independents for Nihilism]

Heck my seat isn't even continguous by road. That's not gerrymandering, just incompetence.

Is Halifax West the non-contiguous one? How so?

[Krago]

Heck my seat isn't even continguous by road. That's not gerrymandering, just incompetence.

Is Halifax West the non-contiguous one? How so?

Halifax would need to build a bridge to Sable Island.

[Independents for Nihilism]

Heck my seat isn't even continguous by road. That's not gerrymandering, just incompetence.

Is Halifax West the non-contiguous one? How so?

Halifax would need to build a bridge to Sable Island.

Can we really count Sable Island? I'm pretty sure it has no permanent population.

[Krago]

The new Ontario map is now ready to delight and amaze.  I will fix Kenora's crew cut tomorrow.

[DC Al Fine]

Heck my seat isn't even continguous by road. That's not gerrymandering, just incompetence.

Is Halifax West the non-contiguous one? How so?

Halifax would need to build a bridge to Sable Island.

Can we really count Sable Island? I'm pretty sure it has no permanent population.

It's Sackville-Preston-Chezzetcook



Eastern Passage is a blue collar village southeast of Dartmouth, which was tacked onto the riding, I suspect because it's blue collar like Sackville. In order to get to Eastern Passage, you have to drive through Dartmouth-Cole Harbour

[Krago]

What do you think of my proposed Sackville-Preston-Hammonds Plains?

[King of Kensington]

The new Ontario map is now ready to delight and amaze.  I will fix Kenora's crew cut tomorrow.

I like the reconfiguration of Toronto's "downtown three."

[DC Al Fine]

What do you think of my proposed Sackville-Preston-Hammonds Plains?

The other Halifax ridings are overpopulated  but I like the basic concept.

[beesley]

Here is my new map so far.  Please look it over and let me know if I've made any obvious errors, especially with names.  Any suggestions for improvement are always welcome.

Enjoy.  The Fish-and-Chips riding (Carleton-Charlotte) is back!

Just to be clear, in Quebec the only dramatic changes are in Eastern Quebec, but beyond that all ridings have a pretty clear predecessor with minimal chages (and it looks as if half are completely unchanged)?

I presume some of the changes you made in Ontario are unlikely to happen - I'm under the impression it's very unlikely the commission would cut ridings from Northern Ontario (though I would personally prefer your configuration).

I don't necessarily mind them myself (at least I would choose them over alternatives), but there's prime pitchfork bait in London, Burlington and Eastern Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think it's possible for the North to keep going with 10 seats and have all of its ridings (except Kenora) be withing 25% of the quotient and have anything close to the resemblance of a fair map. Algoma's most likely on the chopping block. I agree with what Krago has done there, except I probably wouldn't have tapped into Kenora with the Thunder Bay districts.

Some other notes: Toronto will likely lose a district.. surprised no one in the media has picked up on this yet. Most likely will be taken out of Scarborough. Not sure if they'll have a riding cross Victoria Park like Krago has.

I tried configuring an Ottawa map, but gave up. I think will be pretty tricky. You can see how messy it can be on Krago's map with his Rideau-Carleton riding.

[toaster]

Why would Kenora stay put at just over 50k, but have Timmins-James Bay at over 100k by adding Kap and Hearst? If the thought is the vast landmass + Indigenous = smaller riding, wouldn't that apply to both?  If the aim is to keep an Indigenous riding (+ Kenora), I think a Far North riding (east + west together) would make more sense, and then a predominently francophone Timmins-Nickel Belt-Kapuskasing riding in the south, and Manitoulin could join Sault-Ste Marie.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why would Kenora stay put at just over 50k, but have Timmins-James Bay at over 100k by adding Kap and Hearst? If the thought is the vast landmass + Indigenous = smaller riding, wouldn't that apply to both?  If the aim is to keep an Indigenous riding (+ Kenora), I think a Far North riding (east + west together) would make more sense, and then a predominently francophone Timmins-Nickel Belt-Kapuskasing riding in the south, and Manitoulin could join Sault-Ste Marie.

Kenora gets to be small (in population) because it's been deemed a special case. That didn't get applied to any of the other ridings.

Quite frankly, the Hwy 11 corridor belongs more in the Timmins riding than with Algoma. It's only in the Algoma riding for population reasons. If Algoma disappears, the Hwy 11 corridor goes back to its natural home in Timmins-James Bay.

[toaster]

Why would Kenora stay put at just over 50k, but have Timmins-James Bay at over 100k by adding Kap and Hearst? If the thought is the vast landmass + Indigenous = smaller riding, wouldn't that apply to both?  If the aim is to keep an Indigenous riding (+ Kenora), I think a Far North riding (east + west together) would make more sense, and then a predominently francophone Timmins-Nickel Belt-Kapuskasing riding in the south, and Manitoulin could join Sault-Ste Marie.

Kenora gets to be small (in population) because it's been deemed a special case. That didn't get applied to any of the other ridings.

Quite frankly, the Hwy 11 corridor belongs more in the Timmins riding than with Algoma. It's only in the Algoma riding for population reasons. If Algoma disappears, the Hwy 11 corridor goes back to its natural home in Timmins-James Bay.

Understood, but the only reason Timmins is with the James Bay coast is for population reasons (even if it's been this way for a while).  Timmins, and the Hwy 11 corridor have much more in common ('communities of interest") with the francophone areas in Nickel Belt.   Krago's proposed Timmins-James Bay (with the added Hwy 11) makes it an even larger geographic riding, with 3 distinct communities of interest (Indigenous, Francophone, English), while still having a population over 100k.  A solution to that would be to group Indigenous communities together (Far Northeast/Far Northwest + Kenora), and have the Eng/French bilingual communities (with much more in common) together (Nickel Belt - Timmins - Hwy 11 Corridor).

[Krago]

A new and improved electoral map of Canada!

Now with Saskatoba and Kenney-tucky!

[Krago]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

[MaxQue]

All done.

Here is my new electoral map for Canada from coast to coast to coast.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

Quebec quibbles:
L'Ancienne-Lorette is a terrible fit for downtown Quebec City.
Lévis-Beaurivage is a no-no, the multiple Beaurivage towns are not in it. Lévis-Lauzon, maybe? Lévis West?
There is nothing left of old Soulanges County in Vaudreuil-Soulanges! Rename Vaudreuil-Soulanges in Vaudreuil, rename Salaberry-Suroît in Salaberry-Suroît-Soulanges.
Ville-Marie--Île-des-Soeurs omits the central part (which was previously named by Sud-Ouest) Ville-Marie--Île-des-Soeurs--Pointe-St-Charles? Ville-Marie--Île-des-Soeurs-Griffintown?

I think it's quite telling I have more issues with names than boundaries (except in Quebec City). Great job!

[Krago]

I tried to keep all proposed ridings within 10% of their provincial average.  Here is the result.

Dev. from Prov. Avg.	FEDs	Notes
Over 15-20%	1	Halifax (+16%)
Over 10-15%	16
Over 5-10%	62
Within 5%	188
Under 5-10%	49
Under 10-15%	12
Under 15-20%	7
Under 20-25%	2	Thunder Bay seats
Under 50%	2	Labrador, Kenora
Grand Total	339

Note that Halifax is 16% above the Nova Scotia average (88,126), but 6% under the overall Canadian provincial average (108,772).

The most populous proposed riding is Haliburton--Kawartha Lakes   (129,031).


Here are the provincial quotients:

Province/Territory	Census Pop. 2021	FEDs	Quotient
Newfoundland and Labrador	510,550	7	72,936
Nova Scotia	969,383	11	88,126
Prince Edward Island	154,331	4	38,583
New Brunswick	775,610	10	77,561
Quebec	8,501,833	77	110,413
Ontario	14,223,942	122	116,590
Manitoba	1,342,153	14	95,868
Saskatchewan	1,132,505	14	80,893
Alberta	4,262,635	37	115,206
British Columbia	5,000,879	43	116,300
Provincial Subtotal	36,873,821	339	108,772
Yukon	40,232	1
Northwest Territories	41,070	1
Nunavut	36,858	1
Canada Total	36,991,981	342	108,164

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Prince Edward Island

154,331

4

38,583

I love the senatorial clause.

[beesley]

Prince Edward Island

154,331

4

38,583

I love the senatorial clause.

Do you have any personal connection to PEI, out of interest?

[beesley]

Please send me any errors, improvements or complaints.  Or even the occasional compliment.

I think Saskatchewan and Alberta are on point, from my knowledge. And you've made the best of a bad situation in BC, even if the Burnaby-North Vancouver riding is prime pitchfork bait.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Prince Edward Island

154,331

4

38,583

I love the senatorial clause.

Do you have any personal connection to PEI, out of interest?

My great-grandfather was born there, but that’s it. Never been, but I’d like to someday. Also didn’t want to be just another red avatar from CA.

[Philly D.]

Some thoughts.

This proposal is very conservative in the sense that it seeks to keep changes to a minimum. More specifically:

Maritimes:
This map is not very fair to Halifax -- Cape Breton-Antigonish could take a bit more mainland. I am impressed though that the deficit in Miramichi has been corrected without making it Miramichi-Kent, which would be a no-no due to the Official Languages Act.

Quebec:
- Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine should be constituted exclusively by the region of the same name. Territorial divisions are important in Quebec.
- More generally on the South Shore, I would much prefer a map that left Lotbiniere MRC intact and in a different riding than Megantic MRC. I would have to think about how that could be achieved. It might involve cracking Sherbrooke, although if we require Richmond-Arthabaska to be left alone it may be impossible.
- The big question on the North Shore -- and as I see it, the biggest question for the Commission --will be whether to keep 3 whole ridings in Saguenay--Lac-Saint-Jean and 7 in the Capitale-Nationale region. My preference is no -- the former does not even fill 2.5 quotas and the second is also below 7. This would require a Charlevoix-Saguenay riding and a Champlain-Portneuf riding, with Jacques-Cartier MRC, Val-Belair, Saint-Augustin and some extra Quebec City former a Valcartier riding, Louis-Saint-Laurent going into Vanier-Duberger, downtown going with Limoilou (a MUCH better pairing than what we currently have) and Eastern Quebec City and Cote-de-Beaupre constituting the balance. I am less certain of how exactly la Mauricie should be carved, although the main effect is to bring these 3 regions from 12.5 ridings to 12 which is much closer to its acual quota (Note: I actually found the basic structure of ridings quite easily.)
- Lanaudiere, Laurentides and Outaouais would go to 14 whole ridings from 13.5. How to draw then is less certain, with one certitude: Gatineau should not be below quota! Take the Limbour area from Pontiac.
- Notre-Dame-de-Grace--Westmount could be slightly expanded by taking areas near the Notre-Dame-des-Neiges cemetery. If you live in Montreal, you know exactly what area I'm talking about (near the Oratory) and it would fit perfectly with Westmount. More generally, Google Earth is particularly helpful is making boundaries in dense areas as it can sometimes detect subtly suitable boundaries.
- Outremont should be expanded, but not towards downtown. In fact the present boundary of Duluth St. is bad -- it is a mostly pedestrian street with traffic calming and many restaurants. Mount-Royal Street is much better. Send its' northern boundary due north to take all of Mile End, even considering a name change to Outremont--Mile-End.
- Laurier--Sainte-Marie could then include all of the McGill ghetto. Or none and take the Old Port instead. In either case, along with the oversized riding, rename them so that the Montreal toponym reappears (why does it seem to be the only city where its name does not appear in a riding???)

Ontario:
- Northern Ontario will probably lose a riding. In such a case, I would ask myself if the city of Thunder Bay could not be a riding in and of itself (with areas due east carved off.) Kenora must expand -- it would be a negative exception even if it were in Manitoba!
- I need to think long and hard about Ottawa, which is a pity since I used to live there.
- Toronto should definitely lose a whole riding -- it fills 23.96 quotas. Because of this, a Scarborough-Markham riding is probably not feasible. I'm thinking Scarborough Centre and Agincourt need to expand to the Don Valley Parkway, with Don Valley North crossing the 401 and Don Valley East and West being merged into Don Valley South.
- The proposed addition to Toronto-Danforth cuts through the heart of Cabbagetown for very minimal gain. Look closer to the harbour, a consider a larger slice (Corktown and Distillery District). Also, carefully consider whether Parkdale and especially Davenport can be extended slightly east, so that St. Paul's may absorb all of Davisville. Spadina-Fort York could lose a few more condos.

Saskatchewan:
Saskatoon is now much too large for it to be surrounded by a donut riding. In fact, I suspect there will be a concerted push to restore rurban ridings as normal.

Alberta:
- Generally, this map is too generous to rural ridings.
- The exception is Foothills; correct this by moving Kananaskis to Banff--Mountain View where the there is community of interest (resorts.)
- Lakeland should not expand into Strathcona County; it should keep Cold Lake and Lac La Biche. This is a case where a smaller Athabasca would be justified (taking more of the Highway 63 corridor instead.) Rather, Fort Saskatchewan should be hived off and the old Pembina riding reconstituted, with all or part of St. Albert (the answer to this question depends on whether the stated population of Sturgeon County of 20k includes the towns scattered within -- if yes, St. Albert+Fort Sask+Sturgeon=115K, if not split.)
- Calgary-Northern Hills is a positive exception waiting to happen.

[MaxQue]

- Gaspesie-Iles-de-la-Madeleine should be constituted exclusively by the region of the same name. Territorial divisions are important in Quebec.

I have family in Matane, don't tell them they are not living in Gaspésie.