Canada Federal Representation 2024

[Hatman 🍁]

Quebec will NOT lose a seat. I am almost certain Parliament will pass an exemption so they can stay at 78.

[Hatman 🍁]

If Quebec had it's 78th seat granted back, would there be increases in Ontario, Alberta or British Columbia to further even it out?

No. It would be granted through an act of Parliament, and would bypass the representation formula all together.

[Hatman 🍁]

I think Brampton is slated to get the new Ontario riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Canada's tolerance for malapportionment is honestly shocking.

Very rich coming from someone from France of all places...

It's possible that the GTA could see a gain of more than 1 seat, while another area of Ontario with lower than average population growth could lose a seat.



It might be time to revisit the Representation Formula:

https://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=cir/red/allo&document=index&lang=e

Right now Manitoba and Saskatchewan each have 14 ridings, however Manitoba has a population of 200K larger (more than 1 electoral quotient -121K) than Saskatchewan. Should Manitoba (showing  my Manitoba bias) receive one more riding than Saskatchewan ?

If Nova Scotia (with 11 ridings) in the future were to overtake Saskatchewan (14 ridings) in population, the current formula will still give Nova Scotia 11 ridings (10 based on population and 1 based on the Grandfather clause)

Very possible Southern Ontario gets 2 seats. I wonder if they will try to take away another riding from the North? They avoided it last time, since the south got 14 new ridings. Might be harder to justify it this time.

Manitoba could absolutely make the case for an additional riding. However, they don't have the clout like Quebec does to do that kind of thing. Maybe someone should start a Bloc Manitoba party

[Hatman 🍁]

At least we don't have a district the size of Saint Pierre and Miquelon (pop. 6000, 5 times smaller than Nunavut).

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think it's possible for the North to keep going with 10 seats and have all of its ridings (except Kenora) be withing 25% of the quotient and have anything close to the resemblance of a fair map. Algoma's most likely on the chopping block. I agree with what Krago has done there, except I probably wouldn't have tapped into Kenora with the Thunder Bay districts.

Some other notes: Toronto will likely lose a district.. surprised no one in the media has picked up on this yet. Most likely will be taken out of Scarborough. Not sure if they'll have a riding cross Victoria Park like Krago has.

I tried configuring an Ottawa map, but gave up. I think will be pretty tricky. You can see how messy it can be on Krago's map with his Rideau-Carleton riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Why would Kenora stay put at just over 50k, but have Timmins-James Bay at over 100k by adding Kap and Hearst? If the thought is the vast landmass + Indigenous = smaller riding, wouldn't that apply to both?  If the aim is to keep an Indigenous riding (+ Kenora), I think a Far North riding (east + west together) would make more sense, and then a predominently francophone Timmins-Nickel Belt-Kapuskasing riding in the south, and Manitoulin could join Sault-Ste Marie.

Kenora gets to be small (in population) because it's been deemed a special case. That didn't get applied to any of the other ridings.

Quite frankly, the Hwy 11 corridor belongs more in the Timmins riding than with Algoma. It's only in the Algoma riding for population reasons. If Algoma disappears, the Hwy 11 corridor goes back to its natural home in Timmins-James Bay.

[Hatman 🍁]

I mentioned this in my email to you Krago, but drop "Ottawa" from all ridings that don't contain parts of the former city of Ottawa. This is a huge no-no in these parts.

Speaking of Ottawa, I hate the shape of your Ottawa-Rideau riding.

Is it possible to:
Remove Stittsville, and add the southern part of Barrhaven (below the Jock River)
Return the riding of Kanata-Carleton to its former borders
Move the Barrhaven riding's northern borders up, and give OWN Bells Corners and Crystal Bay back. Rename Ottawa-Barrhaven back to Nepean.

What's left of Lanark-Carleton (with Stittsville) is probably too big, but it would be nice to move its eastern border to the 416, rather than the old North Gower township border.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've incorporated a few minor changes around Kananaskis, Sudbury (French River) and Kanata (March Twp).  I've also changed a few riding names in Ontario and Quebec, though Hatman will still complain.  Ayn Rand fans will like the new name for Cambridge--Brant.

If you combine Nepean--Barrhaven and Rideau--Stittsville, and then split the combined area along Fallowfield and Strandherd (then north along the river), the populations are relatively even.  Would that be an improvement?

A Lanark--Stittsville seat could be possible if you want to connect the two areas with a narrow strip along Highway 7.  In the States, nobody would bat an eye.

What if you put Smiths Falls into Leeds-Grenville? 

[Hatman 🍁]

As for Ottawa, I wonder if Ottawa-Vanier west of the Rideau River could not be in Ottawa Centre. The area south of the Experimental Farm and east of Fisher is a relic of old municipal boundaries and Ottawa Centre including Mooney's Bay in the 1980's and is much more similar to Ottawa West-Nepean. And Ottawa-Kanata is much too small.

The Canal has always been the border between the wealthy Anglo-Protestant Downtown and the working class Catholic French/Irish Lower Town. Ottawa-Vanier is a Francophone opportunity riding, and hiving off Lower Town and Sandy Hill which have sizable French populations won't play very well. Yes, they are progressive neighbourhoods which are better ideological matches for Ottawa Centre, but not not necessarily linguistically.

I do agree the Carleton Heights area which you've described is a weird add-on to Ottawa Centre, and should probably go to Ottawa West-Nepean. But, Krago's plan to unite Carlington which is currently divided between 2 ridings isn't the worst option either. Ideally neither area would be in Ottawa Centre.

[Hatman 🍁]

I just posted the Hatman Special on my alternative federal ridings site.

https://bit.ly/AltFEDs  (see Eastern Ontario Alternative)

It looks pretty good.

It's honestly not that bad! Now add the rest of Goulbourn and Marlborough Twps to Lanark so it doesn't look as awkward, and you have a pretty good map. I'd also add Blackburn Hamlet back to Orleans, and maybe add Blossom Park to Carleton in exchange for it losing Goulbourn and Marlborough.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've made several improvements to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342


The good news is that I fixed the error between Kenora and Thunder Bay--Rainy River.  The bad news is that Ontario now has two 'special consideration' ridings below the -25% threshold.

The only Ontario riding that has a population deviation of more than 10% above the provincial average is Brampton Centre.  Any Peelers (Peelites?) in the house?

BREAKING NEWS: I have added the 25 alternative ridings to the Canada342 site to make the comparisons easier to see.  The alternatives are highlighted in magenta (pink).

[Is anyone else old enough to remember when breaking news alerts on tv were actual historical events ('The Space Shuttle has exploded') and not just 'Congressman Fluffernutter is holding a press conference'?]

Ottawa looks perfect!

Now for better names:
Lanark-Stittsville --> Lanark-Carleton
Nepean-Barrhaven --> Nepean (Nepean-Barrhaven isn't that bad, but I doubt they'd bother changing the name)

Now then, how certain are you they are going to make Thunder Bay-Rainy River a special consideration riding? Especially when you can loop it around Thunder Bay taking in some of the city's northwestern suburbs (like it did in the 90s). You're more likely to to be able to give the resulting TBSN riding special status due to how large it would get. Still though, if you're nuking Algima, you could probably stretch TBSN all the way down Lake Superior to the Soo.

[Hatman 🍁]

I also like your alternate Ottawa proposal too. Why didn't I think of just lopping off Morgan's Grant to unite Kanata and Stittsville?

I also prefer lopping off Carleton Heights from Ottawa Centre more than the east half of Carlington, but I could go either way. 

[Hatman 🍁]

What was the logic for the change from Kenora-Rainy River to Kenora?

Probably the underpopulation of Thunder Bay-Atikokan needing to take in new territory.

[Hatman 🍁]

I was asking because it strikes me that if you were to restore Kenora-Rainy River, you could have a compact Thunder Bay riding, rather than splitting the city in two and combining them with widely spread rural areas.

Then you'd have a geographically monstrous Kenora-Rainy River riding, and the new Thunder Bay riding would be well over the Northern Ontario average (though, I'm not sure how much that matters)

[Hatman 🍁]

So, I think there's a chance Scarborough loses a full seat, rather than half a seat like Krago is suggesting. Scarborough with 5 seats gives an average of 125998 per riding.  That's close to rival Etobicoke's average.

Scarborough divides really well into 5 ridings. 2 north of the 401, 3 south.  Split the north by Brimley Rd like on Krago's map, with the western half being Agincourt, and the eastern half being Scarborough North (or Scarborough-Rouge River if we're using old names. Not sure if they'd call it Scarborough-Malvern). Anyway, this unites Malvern in one riding again, and makes the 401 a nice boundary for the south. Two rectangular ridings, both with roughly 125k.

South of the 401, expand Scarborough Centre's eastern boundary to be entirely Bellamy Rd, creating another nice rectangle of 126K. And then, expand Scarborough Southwest eastward with its northeast boundary following the train tracks to Livingston Road, and then south to the lake. This is about 127k.  The rest (~126k) can be named Scarborough East. Maybe keep the name Guildwood, but it's no longer very central in the riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've added two new alternatives to my electoral map.

https://bit.ly/Canada342

(1)  Brampton has been realigned so that all ridings are now below the magical +10% threshold (128,248).  Hatman will like that the entire Springdale neighbourhood is now in Brampton-Springdale.

Cool! I suppose it's not possible to have all of Bramalea in one riding too, eh?

(2)  Thunder Bay--Rainy River has grabbed Ignace and Sioux Lookout so that it is now above the magical -25% threshold (87,442).

Please let me know what you think.

You've isolated the Savant Lake and Pickle Lake areas from the rest of the Kenora riding. Not sure how well that will fly. I have no idea if the commission will tolerate eating into Kenora in the first place, though. They will have to weigh that vs. a mega Thunder Bay-Superior riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is my proposal for Toronto (any riding not shown wouldn't have any changes, except in Etobicoke, where I would just adopt Krago's proposal):



So, as you can see, I've eliminated one Scarborough riding. Don Valley East gains Thorncliffe from Don Valley West; Davisville Village is united in Don Valley West (taken from Toronto-St. Paul's), Rosedale is added to Toronto-St. Paul's (making St. Pauls--Rosedale), and taken from University Rosedale. University-Rosedale's southern boundary becomes Queen Street (taking territory from Spadina-Fort York), becoming "Trinity-University". I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

Still the Esplanade. As I mentioned on Twitter, I totally neglected to consider how many ridings Central Toronto was worth. I just looked at Scarborough, and saw it should lose a seat. Both both Central Toronto and Scarborough should lose a seat based on the math, but since Toronto is only supposed to lose 1 seat, your idea of having a half and half riding is the only solution. A damn shame, since Scarborough divides in 5 so nicely.

Spadina would be a pretty good name for the new University riding, if it hadn't been co-opted by Spadina-Fort York. Perhaps someone from Toronto would have a better idea for a name.

[Hatman 🍁]

You've isolated the Savant Lake and Pickle Lake areas from the rest of the Kenora riding. Not sure how well that will fly. I have no idea if the commission will tolerate eating into Kenora in the first place, though. They will have to weigh that vs. a mega Thunder Bay-Superior riding.

There are lots of isolated communities in Kenora riding.  What's two more?

Based on my proposal, Thunder Bay--Rainy River has 82,357 people and Thunder Bay--Superior North has 91,296.  The -25% population threshold to avoid being a 'special consideration' riding is 87,443.  So even if you move some 'suburban' Thunder Bay to TBRR, there aren't enough people to bring both ridings above the -25% level (82,357 + 91,296 = 173,653;  87,443 x 2 = 174,886).

So if you don't touch Kenora, where do you find more people?  Hearst?  Foleyet?  Go right down to the city limits of Sault Ste Marie?  None of them are really desirable options.  It's tough enough to argue that Chapleau should be in a seat with Thunder Bay.

Yes, you'd have to have a riding wrapping all the way down to Sault Ste. Marie to make things work IMO. The commission will have to weigh that extreme proposition with eating into Kenora.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

Forest Hill-Rosedale is obviously the best name for that riding, but the commission would certainly go with St. Paul's-Rosedale instead IMO.

When was the area called St. David-St. James? Provincially, the area was in St. George and St. David ridings once upon a time, though St. James makes sense considering the riding is home to St. James town. A name with Cabbagetown in it would preferable, but again - the commission is not going to drop Toronto Centre as a name.

[Hatman 🍁]

I've also smoothed out the boundaries of Toronto Centre.

Does your Toronto Centre still use The Esplanade as the southern boundary?  I can't tell from the map.

Otherwise, your central Toronto ridings look great.  The only problem is the population gap between the five Scarborough ridings (avg 126K) and the ten central Toronto ridings (avg 110K).  But I've stolen your idea for a Forest Hill--Rosedale seat, and added it as an Alternative on my map.  I'm looking for a better name for the other riding (Casa Loma--University).

THIS! Thanks, I think it looks great (the DT core ridings). It does look like the Esplanade which may be messy, the tracks might be better but for population that might tick-up TO-Centre (hate the name still).
Hmmm I'm thinking maybe Cedarvale--Rosedale or Rosedale--Forrest Hill (I like the best) And TO-Centre to Cabbagatown--St.Lawrence or Cabbagetown--Old York... If you want to get REAL old school, St. David--St. James (HA!) 

What to do about Scarborough? Does it make sense to have a cross-VicPark riding or a Scarborough-Markham riding?

Forest Hill-Rosedale is obviously the best name for that riding, but the commission would certainly go with St. Paul's-Rosedale instead IMO.

When was the area called St. David-St. James? Provincially, the area was in St. George and St. David ridings once upon a time, though St. James makes sense considering the riding is home to St. James town. A name with Cabbagetown in it would preferable, but again - the commission is not going to drop Toronto Centre as a name.

Your right! I was thinking St.George, the old provincial name... based on the super old wards.

Why do you think the commission is so tied to those names (i.e. TO Centre, St. Paul's)

It's rare for commissions (at least in Ontario) to change riding names, especially for names like St. Paul's, which has existed for a long time. Last redistribution, their original map didn't even change the name of Nepean-Carleton, despite the new riding not even having any part of Nepean. Usually riding name changes are done by their MPs later on.

[Hatman 🍁]

Six seat Brampton

[Hatman 🍁]

Six seat Brampton

Nice! what's the pops?

That leaves us with what to do with Caledon?

They're all roughly 110k.

[Hatman 🍁]

Six seat Brampton

Why wouldn't Bramalea be called Brampton - Bramalea for consistency? It's entirely within the City of Brampton.

That's an option too, though I thought it was a rather redundant name (too many Brams). Back in the old days, there was a riding called Bramalea-Gore-Malton. No mention of Brampton in the name back then.