Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We have a 33T deficit you know

[Matty]

We have a 33T deficit you know

What?

[Bootes Void]

We have a 33T deficit you know

What?

He probably meant debt

[emailking]

The numbers I can find range 27.8T to 28.5T.

[jaichind]

It seems the Ways and Means Democrats will propose

1) Top marginal tax rate goes from 37% to 39.6%
2) 3% surtax on individuals with AGI of more than $5 million
3) Top capital gains rate increases to 25% from 20% (Biden wanted 39.6%)
4) Top corporate tax rate rises to 26.5% from 21% (Biden wanted 28%)
5) Increases carried-interest holding period to five years from three

Estimated revenue from corporate tax changes likely to total $900 billion
Estimated revenue boost from high-income individuals ~$1 trillion

It seems this is a bit watered down from Biden's proposals as way to get the support of moderate Dems.  Most likely there will have to be cut some more as part of negations with the Dem moderates.

[Person Man]

It seems the Ways and Means Democrats will propose

1) Top marginal tax rate goes from 37% to 39.6%
2) 3% surtax on individuals with AGI of more than $5 million
3) Top capital gains rate increases to 25% from 20% (Biden wanted 39.6%)
4) Top corporate tax rate rises to 26.5% from 21% (Biden wanted 28%)
5) Increases carried-interest holding period to five years from three

Estimated revenue from corporate tax changes likely to total $900 billion
Estimated revenue boost from high-income individuals ~$1 trillion

It seems this is a bit watered down from Biden's proposals as way to get the support of moderate Dems.  Most likely there will have to be cut some more as part of negations with the Dem moderates.

They can get maybe 2 trillion of reconciliation paid for. That would be fine.

[Person Man]

It seems the Ways and Means Democrats will propose

1) Top marginal tax rate goes from 37% to 39.6%
2) 3% surtax on individuals with AGI of more than $5 million
3) Top capital gains rate increases to 25% from 20% (Biden wanted 39.6%)
4) Top corporate tax rate rises to 26.5% from 21% (Biden wanted 28%)
5) Increases carried-interest holding period to five years from three

Estimated revenue from corporate tax changes likely to total $900 billion
Estimated revenue boost from high-income individuals ~$1 trillion

It seems this is a bit watered down from Biden's proposals as way to get the support of moderate Dems.  Most likely there will have to be cut some more as part of negations with the Dem moderates.

They can get maybe 2 trillion of reconciliation paid for. That would be fine.

[Frodo]

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1437362955214102533?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Manchin said he isn't going go above 2T

[Person Man]

Manchin said he isn't going go above 2T

That was less before, right? It’s moving in the right direction. Getting 3.5 trillion is unreasonable but any outcome above two is desirable and attainable.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg report that "Democrats plan `meaningful' change to cap on SALT deduction"

This will not go down well with Dems from rural low tax states.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Bloomberg report that "Democrats plan `meaningful' change to cap on SALT deduction"

This will not go down well with Dems from rural low tax states.

You would think so, but West Virginia’s Senator has decided to spend all his time fighting capital gains taxes and this was one of the primary demands of his No Labels buddies. So I doubt it.

[jaichind]

Bloomberg report that "Democrats plan `meaningful' change to cap on SALT deduction"

This will not go down well with Dems from rural low tax states.

You would think so, but West Virginia’s Senator has decided to spend all his time fighting capital gains taxes and this was one of the primary demands of his No Labels buddies. So I doubt it.

Ultimately what this is about are Dems from high tax areas are afraid of losing the goose that lays the golden eggs by having high income earners move to low tax areas like FL or TX.  Some Dem progressives are opposed to this move because it gives a tax benefit to high income earners in high tax areas.  The way to have it both ways are to

a) do SALT cap adjustment or abolishment
a) take back the benefit really jack up income tax rates (like more of this 3% surtax on AGI above $5 million)

That way all high income earners across the board will see a tax increase but especially in low tax states like FL or TX.

The problem with this approach is that some Dem moderates will say that this will create an disincentive to work among high income earners.

Will be interesting to see how this plays out.  I personally do not thing the SALT cap reform or abolishment will take place.  It was and always be a pipedream of Dem House members from high income areas in Greater NY and West Coast.

[NotSoLucky]

Bloomberg report that "Democrats plan `meaningful' change to cap on SALT deduction"

This will not go down well with Dems from rural low tax states.

Not will it go well for the wealthy urban/suburban New Jersey "fiscally conservative, socially liberal" Democrats. Especially for Josh "No SALT, no dice" Gotteimer

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Bloomberg report that "Democrats plan `meaningful' change to cap on SALT deduction"

This will not go down well with Dems from rural low tax states.

Not will it go well for the wealthy urban/suburban New Jersey "fiscally conservative, socially liberal" Democrats. Especially for Josh "No SALT, no dice" Gotteimer

TBF, the point of the SALT deductions is so that states don’t become little mini Caymans and start a race to the bottom that derails local government by strangling it. Not that Gotteimer cares, but atleast he is plausibly working for his constituents. Unlike Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema who are pretty blatant about being tools for the highest bidder.

[Shadows]

Bloomberg News report that House Democrats Set to Propose Corporate Tax Rate of 26.5%. The top rate on capital gains would rise from 20% to 25% versus 39.6% that Biden wanted.  I assume this is for those with AGI above $1 million.

Corporate @ 26% or 27% is okay (Manchin is saying 25%, Biden 28%).

Capital gains should be 25% to 30% atleast with a deduction for say 1st 10-20K $ which will make effective rate for low investors substantially below 25 or 30% but it will get 25 to 30% from higher earners.

No1 wants to mess with capital gains because every politician & their relative & campaign contributor will lose huge money. You work hard & pay 30-35% & you sit infront of a PC or phone & earn millions & pay 25% is just ridiculous.

Also given how much the equity market has risen (& will rise given post COVID growth will be strong for 3-4 years), capital gains tax increase will raise substantial more money than 1-2% increase in Corporate Tax or for wealthy people (income tax). Also increasing capital gains will also mean dividend will be taxed @ a slightly higher rate. Democrats must understand the 100s of B of $ this will provide & this will go into trillions within a 10 year period.

[Shadows]

Also even with 3-4% inflation (assuming it comes down from 4-5%) for the next year & bank borrowing rates are near 0, Real Return on banks (Return - Inflation) is virtually negative to 0.

As inflation rises & bank rates remain low (atleast for 2022 & 2023), it will only boost investment in equity & debt market. There is substantial money to be made there with even a small tax increase which can help to create a fairer economy - Paid Leave, Childcare, Healthcare expansion etc etc.

In the future, Democrats should look @ financial markets in a big-way, Financial Transaction tax (Equity, Derivatives, Debt) - even 0.01% can raise massive revenue without majorly damaging the market. The day it becomes 1% or 2% - It will cause turmoil. But a very minuscle amount will raise crazy just due to sheer size of the market !

[NotSoLucky]

Also even with 3-4% inflation (assuming it comes down from 4-5%) for the next year & bank borrowing rates are near 0, Real Return on banks (Return - Inflation) is virtually negative to 0.

As inflation rises & bank rates remain low (atleast for 2022 & 2023), it will only boost investment in equity & debt market. There is substantial money to be made there with even a small tax increase which can help to create a fairer economy - Paid Leave, Childcare, Healthcare expansion etc etc.

In the future, Democrats should look @ financial markets in a big-way, Financial Transaction tax (Equity, Derivatives, Debt) - even 0.01% can raise massive revenue without majorly damaging the market. The day it becomes 1% or 2% - It will cause turmoil. But a very minuscle amount will raise crazy just due to sheer size of the market !

Watch as the corporate Dems fight behind closed doors to ensure this does NOT happen. A lot of the more corporate democrats are reliant on money from giant Tech corporations such as Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Facebook. None of which would actually want a tax increase, unless there's some loophole included which would allow them not to pay for it :/

[Antonio the Sixth]

We need more immigrants:

Skilled Workers Are Scarce, Posing a Challenge for Biden’s Infrastructure Plan
One estimate says the bill would add $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy over eight years, but without enough workers, efforts to strengthen roads and public transit could be set back.

Mr. Biden has hailed the $1 trillion infrastructure bill as a way to create millions of jobs, but as the country faces a dire shortage of skilled workers, researchers and economists say companies may find it difficult to fill all of those positions.

The bill could generate new jobs in industries critical to keeping the nation’s public works systems running, such as construction, transportation and energy. S&P Global Ratings estimated that the bill would lift productivity and economic growth, adding $1.4 trillion to the U.S. economy over eight years. But if there is not enough labor to keep up with the demand, efforts to strengthen the nation’s highways, bridges and public transit could be set back.

“Do we have the work force ready right now to take care of this? Absolutely not,” said Beverly Scott, the vice chair of the President’s National Infrastructure Advisory Council.

A recent U.S. Chamber of Commerce survey found that 88 percent of commercial construction contractors reported moderate-to-high levels of difficulty finding skilled workers, and more than a third had to turn down work because of labor deficiencies. The industry could face a shortage of at least two million workers through 2025, according to an estimate from Construction Industry Resources, a data firm in Kentucky.

Is it a work ethic or population issue? I’m honestly asking a question.

Like any other "labor shortage", probably mostly a wage issue.

[S019]

Bloomberg report that "Democrats plan `meaningful' change to cap on SALT deduction"

This will not go down well with Dems from rural low tax states.

Not will it go well for the wealthy urban/suburban New Jersey "fiscally conservative, socially liberal" Democrats. Especially for Josh "No SALT, no dice" Gotteimer

TBF, the point of the SALT deductions is so that states don’t become little mini Caymans and start a race to the bottom that derails local government by strangling it. Not that Gotteimer cares, but atleast he is plausibly working for his constituents. Unlike Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema who are pretty blatant about being tools for the highest bidder.

Yeah this, I honestly find it pretty laughable how little people know about why the SALT deduction exists. It's like they don't realize that all of these services need money and if taxes get too high, state governments are either going to be forced to lower them and compensate by cutting spending, or get voted out. I would rather my state not become Brownback-era Kansas, just because some ill-informed internet progressives think that SALT is "a TaX CuT FoR ThE RiCh," when in actuality, it's far more complicated

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://news.yahoo.com/manchin-favors-trimming-biden-budget-185214427.html


Manchin wants to trim Biden budget by Half forget the Squad the Senate is the Final say over budget and it's not 2T

[Frodo]

Senator Manchin is throwing shade on climate-change provisions in the reconciliation bill:

Manchin puts foot down on key climate provision in spending bill

Also, other corporate Democrats are throwing a wrench in plans to lower prescription drug prices:

Three Democrats say they will oppose party’s drug-price plan, creating a roadblock for larger package

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Senator Manchin is throwing shade on climate-change provisions in the reconciliation bill:

Manchin puts foot down on key climate provision in spending bill

Also, other corporate Democrats are throwing a wrench in plans to lower prescription drug prices:

Three Democrats say they will oppose party’s drug-price plan, creating a roadblock for larger package

Should note those three are housies, usual suspects, Rice, Schrader, Peters. So probably nothing, you about gave me a heart attack the way you phrased it I thought it was three Senators (we all know which ones would).

[Pyro]

Senator Manchin is throwing shade on climate-change provisions in the reconciliation bill:

Manchin puts foot down on key climate provision in spending bill

Huge surprise from Senator Exxon.

[Morning in Atlas]

Also, other corporate Democrats are throwing a wrench in plans to lower prescription drug prices:

Three Democrats say they will oppose party’s drug-price plan, creating a roadblock for larger package

Hey guys?

Remember how I got pissed at them snubbing AOC for Rice? And how it shouldn't have happened because she was disloyal? And how that spot would keep her in line?

Yeeeeah.