Biden infrastructure/tax increase megathread

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/samstein/status/1408388436453642245
LOL.

At least they can pass this plus more in reconciliation. It's pretty simple. They can go with what has the votes of 60 senators or what has the votes of 50 senators.

[Person Man]

Excellent strategy by Biden. Turns out that having an experienced prez really matters and that Biden has learned the lessons from 2009.

If the GOPers pull out because Mr. Turtleman tells them to or because they don't like the 2nd bill, Dems should just pack everything in a big bill and get it done with 50 votes. Manchin then has to realize his colleagues from the other side of the aisle weren't negotiating in good faith. Offer him extra funds for WV if that's what it takes to get his vote. This things needs to be get done.

The only problem with this is that the same thing could happen that happened with Republicans in 2017.

[Person Man]

Just to provide some context to why Republicans are so angry with President Biden over explicitly calling for a two-track infrastructure deal, and are backing away from negotiations:

Republicans plot an infrastructure 2-step: Spend more, then kill Biden’s agenda

Senate Republicans are mulling support for a massive amount of new spending on infrastructure — in part because they think it’ll help kill President Joe Biden’s liberal agenda.

Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has yet to tip his hand on whether he supports the bipartisan negotiations on Biden's plan for roads and bridges that are being led by Sens. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio). But a growing number of Senate Republicans are betting that if a deal is reached on that sort of physical infrastructure, Democrats won’t have the votes needed to pass the rest of Biden’s “soft infrastructure” priorities, such as child care and clean energy.

This is from mid-June.  They only supported the compromise on the presumption that it would kill the rest of Biden's agenda.  Talk about being two-faced.....  

So basically, they wanted to give Biden something so that the rest of his agenda wouldn't have the capital to move forward on.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1420409615066570759

Who bribed who and how?

[Person Man]

Very funny that people here are pretending that a bill that totals to - what, an eighth? Of the original Biden proposal is somehow “getting everything we/Biden wanted”.

Elder care funding is dead. The child tax credit and universal child care are dead. If you’re happy about that, at least go ahead and admit it instead of pretending that “oh, everyone only ever actually wanted the stuff that’s in the small bill”.

The bipartisan bill on hard-infrastructure & reconciliation package on literally-everything-else-in-the-American-Jobs-&-Families-Plans-that-isn't-hard-infrastructure constitute literally everything that Biden asked Congress for, & if you respond by unironically saying that Sinema just killed the reconciliation package, then I have a fully paid-for bridge to sell you.

I’m just finding it very hard to believe that McConnell was willing to let the votes go on the bipartisan package unless he has what he views as an ironclad guarantee of the reconciliation side failing. Maybe the Dems have him outmaneuvered on this but that would be a first.

I don't see how that's all that likely, given the factors that we already know are at play here: Sinema badly wanting the bipartisan bill to be a thing while Pelosi & her caucus aren't allowing the House to consider the bipartisan bill 'til after the Senate has also sent the reconciliation package over in the fall, meaning that Sinema has to give in on reconciliation so that her baby can become law just as much as the House & Pelosi are giving in on there being a bipartisan bill at all so that they can get their baby - in this case, the comparatively sweeter reconciliation package - to become law. The only influence which the GOP really wields over this process is their ability to kill the bipartisan bill if they wanna, but even they know that if they do so, then Sinema would very likely just retaliate against what would be their evident bad-faith by allowing for reconciliation & still getting the bipartisan-bill provisions that she likes passed as part of the reconciliation package anyway.

If anything is made the enemy of everything and if we get nothing by Christmas, then they can forget about people donating to their campaign. Sure, the real reason is that we lost too many races where Democrats were favored in 2018 and 2020 (NC, Maine, Florida, Iowa?, Missouri?), not that Democrats don't want to do the things they were elected to do but ultimately many will see this as the need to "start over".

[Person Man]

Very funny that people here are pretending that a bill that totals to - what, an eighth? Of the original Biden proposal is somehow “getting everything we/Biden wanted”.

Elder care funding is dead. The child tax credit and universal child care are dead. If you’re happy about that, at least go ahead and admit it instead of pretending that “oh, everyone only ever actually wanted the stuff that’s in the small bill”.

What?

An eighth? Biden's original plan was 2.3 trillion, but the details were never released. Because that was never going to pass lol. Its like sticker price on a car

What he really wanted was 1.7 trillion. He is getting 1.2 trillion. That is a win, if it means giving Manchin "bipartisanship"

Elder care and child care will be passed in reconciliation. That is the American Family Plan. Congress has to pass some budget by Oct 1st and there is nothing McConnell can do to stop it.

The FY 2019 budget was 1.3 billion. Democrats want 3.5 trillion for the FY 2022. 1.6 for a boosted budget for regular things and a one time 1.7 trillion that over 10 years pays for

-free community college
-universal pre-k
-national paid leave
-double pell grants
-double title 1
-child/elder care tax credits
-EBT boosted
-Medicaid boosted
-Lower Medicare age
-Medicare covers dental, health, vision
-Obamacare subsidies

Hopefully the FY 2023 budget passed next year will have a public option

It's not like there's going to be a "cliff" if nothing happens by 10/1 right? It's not like we are going to default on the debt or there is going to be a shutdown.

[Person Man]

Very funny that people here are pretending that a bill that totals to - what, an eighth? Of the original Biden proposal is somehow “getting everything we/Biden wanted”.

Elder care funding is dead. The child tax credit and universal child care are dead. If you’re happy about that, at least go ahead and admit it instead of pretending that “oh, everyone only ever actually wanted the stuff that’s in the small bill”.

What?

An eighth? Biden's original plan was 2.3 trillion, but the details were never released. Because that was never going to pass lol. Its like sticker price on a car

What he really wanted was 1.7 trillion. He is getting 1.2 trillion. That is a win, if it means giving Manchin "bipartisanship"

Elder care and child care will be passed in reconciliation. That is the American Family Plan. Congress has to pass some budget by Oct 1st and there is nothing McConnell can do to stop it.

The FY 2019 budget was 1.3 billion. Democrats want 3.5 trillion for the FY 2022. 1.6 for a boosted budget for regular things and a one time 1.7 trillion that over 10 years pays for

-free community college
-universal pre-k
-national paid leave
-double pell grants
-double title 1
-child/elder care tax credits
-EBT boosted
-Medicaid boosted
-Lower Medicare age
-Medicare covers dental, health, vision
-Obamacare subsidies

Hopefully the FY 2023 budget passed next year will have a public option

It's not like there's going to be a "cliff" if nothing happens by 10/1 right? It's not like we are going to default on the debt or there is going to be a shutdown.

Actually yes

That said, rarely is the budget passed by Oct 1

Usually they pass a temporary spending bill at current levels to buy more times. Recent years the budget was passed by December to Januarary

Nancy Pelosi forced the FY 2021 budget until the new year so that Biden could have three budgets before midterms. The ARP was just the FY 2021 budget lol

Could Schumer and Pelosi in theory use a cliff to force Senate centrists and House socialists to get together and pass SOMETHING by then?

[Person Man]

Very funny that people here are pretending that a bill that totals to - what, an eighth? Of the original Biden proposal is somehow “getting everything we/Biden wanted”.

Elder care funding is dead. The child tax credit and universal child care are dead. If you’re happy about that, at least go ahead and admit it instead of pretending that “oh, everyone only ever actually wanted the stuff that’s in the small bill”.

What?

An eighth? Biden's original plan was 2.3 trillion, but the details were never released. Because that was never going to pass lol. Its like sticker price on a car

What he really wanted was 1.7 trillion. He is getting 1.2 trillion. That is a win, if it means giving Manchin "bipartisanship"

Elder care and child care will be passed in reconciliation. That is the American Family Plan. Congress has to pass some budget by Oct 1st and there is nothing McConnell can do to stop it.

The FY 2019 budget was 1.3 billion. Democrats want 3.5 trillion for the FY 2022. 1.6 for a boosted budget for regular things and a one time 1.7 trillion that over 10 years pays for

-free community college
-universal pre-k
-national paid leave
-double pell grants
-double title 1
-child/elder care tax credits
-EBT boosted
-Medicaid boosted
-Lower Medicare age
-Medicare covers dental, health, vision
-Obamacare subsidies

Hopefully the FY 2023 budget passed next year will have a public option

It's not like there's going to be a "cliff" if nothing happens by 10/1 right? It's not like we are going to default on the debt or there is going to be a shutdown.

Actually yes

That said, rarely is the budget passed by Oct 1

Usually they pass a temporary spending bill at current levels to buy more times. Recent years the budget was passed by December to Januarary

Nancy Pelosi forced the FY 2021 budget until the new year so that Biden could have three budgets before midterms. The ARP was just the FY 2021 budget lol

Could Schumer and Pelosi in theory use a cliff to force Senate centrists and House socialists to get together and pass SOMETHING by then?

Eh, I guess?

That would never happen though. The threat of going off a cliff is only used by opposition parties. Going off the cliff would result in millions of government workers not getting paid, causing a recession. Stock markets would crash and would kill the economy. No party in power would dare mention that

Plus it would make Democrats look weak and divided. And make leadership (Schumer and Pelosi) look like they were unable to control their members

Plus, that would probably make Manchin switch parties. We know McConnell offered that to him

Besides, the bipartisan bill will probably be passed in the next two weeks. And a rough blueprint for the budget to be worked on after the August recess and hopefully passed by October.

If Manchin wanted to switch parties, would he have done so? Of course Sinema could never be a Republican so she is just SOL if nothing happens at all.

[Person Man]

What's going on now with it?

[Person Man]

When do the votes happen?

[Person Man]

vote when

They are talking about next week

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/InPoliticking/status/1429297637266804736

It’s useless to think like this but this basically where Republicans were with taxes 4 years ago. They have to do something or what’s the point? Might as well default if Democrats can’t pass the budget.

[Person Man]

If the progressives don't have a reconciliation bill from the Senate to their liking by the 27th, can't they just vote down the bipartisan bill, and we're back where we are now? The House can pass a bill it previously voted down, right?

And if nothing gets passed, Gottheimer and Synema become modern day Millard Fillmores. You know, the guy who became president because his running mate played in the rain or something and then basically cancelled the the agenda and policies he ran on? It basically immediately doomed the Whig Party, gave us a dominant party system, a constitutional right to own slaves (at least until the constitution was rewritten), and eventually led to the Civil War? Imagine if atlas was around then.

[Person Man]

The problem with the idea of Biden acting like LBJ against Sinema is that it'd cause a sexual harassment scandal (and arguably rightfully so)

Hopefully people who would understand nuance and context in this matter.

[Person Man]

Maybe this is discussed above, but here is a good summary of the state of play on reconciliation and infrastructure. The two bills have been effectively decoupled it seems to me. Pelosi was forced to fold. The Dem moderates held firm.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/house-moderates-provide-even-more-leverage-joe-manchin-reconciliation-n1277592

Here’s hoping that the progressives at least force there to be a second bill even if it isn’t the one we currently have.

[Person Man]

is anyone clear on what gottenheimer and the crew actually won for themselves? seems like nothing but a save face maneuver

Moderates claim they won the ability the pass the infrastructure but to vote with the Republicans to defeat the budget.

[Person Man]

Sometimes moderates have to understand that they won't be reelected no matter what they do and progressives need to understand that there are some seats that still can be saved.

[Person Man]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

They don't have to give us all 4.5 Trillion in programs, but they have to offer something substantial in reconciliation.

[Person Man]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

They don't have to give us all 4.5 Trillion in programs, but they have to offer something substantial in reconciliation.

Somewhere between the bipartisan bill and the reconciliation bill would be best if we want a lick of a chance of passing it. Just a question of where on the spectrum it falls

Team blue got the ball on their own 10 yard line and they are now 4 and 5 on the 35 yard line. This is a Field Goal kick.

[Person Man]

House progressives have next to no history whatsoever of actually pulling the trigger on voting down Democratic priorities, unlike their moderate nice guy FF brethren. Congress-watchers should assume that their threats to do so are empty until and unless they actually go through with it. Remember that five or six of them briefly threatened to sink the ARP too.

They don't have to give us all 4.5 Trillion in programs, but they have to offer something substantial in reconciliation.

Somewhere between the bipartisan bill and the reconciliation bill would be best if we want a lick of a chance of passing it. Just a question of where on the spectrum it falls

Team blue got the ball on their own 10 yard line and they are now 4 and 5 on the 35 yard line. This is a Field Goal kick.

I don’t watch football so idk what you’re saying

We were handed crap coming in a we have one last chance to do something before we can’t do anything for a while.

[Person Man]

Manchin is playing games. He is scaring Democratic leadership to bend to his whims

1.Manchin doesn't like to be rushed
2.Manchin wants his input on EVERYTHING
3. Manchin needs Republican input
4. Bills can't be seen as deficit busting

 “I, for one, won’t support a $3.5 trillion bill, or anywhere near that level of additional spending, without greater clarity about why Congress chooses to ignore the serious effects inflation and debt have on existing government programs,”

The key word is "clarity"

Basically, he wants Democrats to make the argument that this isn't a "progressive" bill but some moderate adjustments to the safety net. And he wants it "paid" for with higher taxes so it isn't seen as "deficit busting"

I do not know how much he wants cut. Hopefully not a lot. But we shouldn't be freaking out just yet

It is paid for. I don't think progressives will support cutting social programs. So what does he want?

Lower tax hikes? Much lower spending? Maybe he wants something like 2 or 2.5T @ best. Maybe the Medicare expansion of Dental or other provisions on Climate Change or Child Tax Credit etc has to go according to Manchin.

Biden can't work with a 50-50 senate beyond 2022. He needs 2 more seats so that Sinema & Manchin can't blackmail him & Sinema needs to be primaried out ASAP. Manchin is from WV & has some right to actually question - Sinema is in a state Biden won where Mark Kelly won & she has no business arguing !

If the trends hold (recent polling shows that it will) in the suburbs, Sinema probably loses the primary and Democrats will never be able to win the senate or WH again without Arizona.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1435420464046870530https://twitter.com/mattdizwhitlock/status/1435420464046870530

So from 5 to 3 trillion in total?

[Person Man]

Damn the torpedoes!

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1435691597136601095

They have to push forward and get what they get.

[Person Man]

I honestly doubt this number is remotely accurate. "No Labels" is a fraud that pushes the lame "both sides" narrative.

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1435951140781309953

That's a push poll if I've never seen one before. They are basically pro-immigration conservatives, right?

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/maxberger/status/1435992239252049920?s=20

I strongly dislike this man. I can understand his dumb centrist brain thinking low corporate taxes are good for the economy or whatever, but what the hell is his rationale for reducing pre-k eligibility? Just cruelty.

Well, I can see it might be reasonable to give free services for those who can easily afford it. Maybe limit it to only families making less than 500% of poverty (100k for one child, 125 for two children, 150 for three or more children).