Derek Chauvin trial megathread (SENTENCED TO 22.5 YEARS IN PRISON)

[John Dule]

I think hung jury is the most likely outcome, but he is so unbelievably guilty.

No way would the judge accept a hung jury after this short amount of time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think hung jury is the most likely outcome, but he is so unbelievably guilty.

They've said a verdict will be announced, so a hung jury is not possible.

[Chips]

There will not be a mistrial or a hung jury. I'd say there's a 1% chance he will be acquitted and a 99% chance he's found guilty of something.

[ultraviolet]

There will not be a mistrial or a hung jury. I'd say there's a 1% chance he will be acquitted and a 99% chance he's found guilty of something.

There’s really not even a 1% chance that everyone just decided to acquit him

[lfromnj]

By the way, for information's sake.
Minnesota has a 5% Black CVAP population and the jury was picked from all around Minnesota.
The jury of 12 has 4 black jurors and a few mixed race.
The odds of there being 4 or more black jurors is 0.2% assuming pure random selection from Minnesota citizens of voting age.

[Pheurton Skeurto]

I'm anticipating some kind of weird bs thing and he ends up being acquitted. Or if he's convicted, it will be something stupid.

[Not Me, Us]

I think hung jury is the most likely outcome, but he is so unbelievably guilty.

They've said a verdict will be announced, so a hung jury is not possible.

Well that seems like good news, doesn't it? Looking at the jury, there's no way they got a not guilty verdict, right?

[SteveRogers]

By the way, for information's sake.
Minnesota has a 5% Black CVAP population and the jury was picked from all around Minnesota.
The jury of 12 has 4 black jurors and a few mixed race.
The odds of there being 4 or more black jurors is 0.2% assuming pure random selection from Minnesota citizens of voting age.

Except the jurors were actually picked from Hennepin County which has a 14% black population.

[emailking]

If there was a deadlocked jury we would have found that out and the judge would tell them deliberate for longer. If they had already reached verdicts on some counts but not all of them, we would probably know that too. But nothing would be announced until verdicts were reached on all of them or the judge was ready to declare a mistrial on some of them. Since they've announced they've reached a verdict, it means they have verdicts of guilty or not guilty for all counts.

[lfromnj]

By the way, for information's sake.
Minnesota has a 5% Black CVAP population and the jury was picked from all around Minnesota.
The jury of 12 has 4 black jurors and a few mixed race.
The odds of there being 4 or more black jurors is 0.2% assuming pure random selection from Minnesota citizens of voting age.

Except the jurors were actually picked from Hennepin County which has a 14% black population.

Woops the jury makeup confused me because it said originally from northern Minnesota for one of the jurors. I assumed that this jury had a statewide pool. I read that wrong my bad.  Hennepin's black population should be seen as the CVAP black population which is 11% according to 2019 estimates as only citizens of voting age can be on a jury. This makeup still has a skew but can possibly be explained by random distribution.

I calculated the probability of there being greater than 3 black jurors and I got 3.51%. This is a bit low but not super low.

If we assume a different spread of assuming both mixed race jurors as non white the odds of 6 or more jurors being non white is around 2.5%

Overall an uncommon chance but can be explained by random distribution and jury selection.

[KaiserDave]

4:30

[Real Texan Politics]

4:30

They said between 4:30-5:00 EST, so any minute now.

As for me in the CST (and same for Minneapolis), 3:30-4:00.

[ProudModerate2]

I think hung jury is the most likely outcome, but he is so unbelievably guilty.

Nooooo. Stop.
The court says there is a verdict.
Not only is there a zero % chance of a hung jury, but it is a negative probability percentage for such a scenario.

[John Dule]

By the way, for information's sake.
Minnesota has a 5% Black CVAP population and the jury was picked from all around Minnesota.
The jury of 12 has 4 black jurors and a few mixed race.
The odds of there being 4 or more black jurors is 0.2% assuming pure random selection from Minnesota citizens of voting age.

It is truly a damning indictment of our society that CNN and other news organizations have put so much effort into publicizing and analyzing the racial makeup of this jury-- the implication being, of course, that people will be sympathetic to people who look like them. If a multiracial democracy is to work, we have got to stop making those kinds of assumptions.

[ProudModerate2]

They are talking about how bystander video was very helpful in showing what happened, with many different angles of view.
One thing I would like to see nationally, is that all police personnel allow the public to self-video all encounters (at a safe/adequate distance).
I consistently see that officers stand intentionally between the public and "the action." They do it not to create a security barrier (even though this is their excuse), but to block those people with cameras (cell phones) from getting clear(er) video. You sometimes see that when a member of the public moves to one side to get a better angle without the officers in the way, the officer then moves again to block that position/angle.
This goes against the concept of transparency for all police encounters. (What do they have to hide, if they say they always follow proper protocols?).

[Torrain]

WaPo says verdict at top of the hour (5pm est) via BBC News

BBC also reporting Chauvin has now arrived in the courtroom

[Real Texan Politics]

Biden will be speaking later today about the verdict.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

https://twitter.com/jeffzeleny/status/1384611756501356550

[KaiserDave]

5

[CookieDamage]

What are they waiting for?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

- "This is it..."
- "They're speaking now..."
- "Here we go..."
- "Brace for impact..."
- "And there it is..."

[emailking]

hasn't been read yet.

[emailking]

guilty of 2nd degree murder.

[emailking]

Guilty of 3rd degree murder.

[emailking]

Guilty of 3rd degree manslaughter.