Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Sebastiansg7]

I don't know why Junts wouldn't support PSOE, this is like they've just won the jackpot, I don't think they'll have a chance to be kingmakers if the elections are repeated. They will probably ask for a lot, but they should meet PSOE halfway if they really want to get something out of this.

[icc]

I'm not sure I follow why PP gaining this seat means Junts needs to vote 'yes' rather than abstain?

you appear to have answered your own question:

PP/Vox/UPN = 171
PSOE/Sumar/ERC/Bildu/PNV/BNG/CC = 172
Junts = 7

I don't think the math has changed in a meaningful way regarding Junts, but PSOE now absolutely needs CC, which in my understanding is the most questionable inclusion, since they have promised not to support a government which includes Sumar or Vox. If they're serious about that, then this goes to new elections, but it could also be posturing. (With the earlier seat count, CC could've also abstained and PSOE still taken office.)

The consensus opinion seems to take their statement at face value, that they can't be persuaded to do anything more than agree to abstain (if even that, not that it matters now)

Yeah, a lot of the earlier commentary seemed to tacitly assume that CC in the left-wing column, but if they're not gettable for Sánchez even in principle then losing one seat to PP worsens his position very meaningfully.

No it didn't - CC has always been treated as outside the blocs (well, by anyone with any vague connection to reality).

[icc]

(Note that, as BK has documented, Catalonia isn't actually all that much of a problem for the Spanish right -- and in the pre-Vox days CiU had been a partner in at least one PP-led government -- but certainly Scotland is a very real problem for the British Tories. Quebec seems somewhere in between; BQ does not seem as hostile to the CPC as the SNP is to the Tories.)

Catalonia comprises about 16% of the population of Spain, whereas Scotland comprises about 8% of the United Kingdom's population.

Sure, and the difference I'm describing is partially just the product of different electoral systems, but the Spanish right derives much more of its support from Catalonia than the Tories do from Scotland. At the most recent election, 16/170 of the seats for PP/Vox came from Catalonia (about 9%), compared to 6/365 Tory seats coming from Scotland (1.6%), and that was a relatively good performance! It's much harder to cut off 10% of your party's representation than 1.6%. The 'Catalan right' is a much larger part of the Spanish system than 'the Scottish Tories'.

1) In terms of support the Conservatives are *far* more popular in Scotland than the PP are in Cataluña
2) In FPTP the 'where' is much more important. While it would be going too far to say that a Barcelona PP representative is seen the same way as a Madrid PP representative, it wouldn't be going all that far. In the UK the 'Scottish Tories' have far more of an identity (regardless of the fact that this is nonsensical - the Scottish Conservatives are spread across the same ideological spectrum as the UK Conservatives and have never (at least in recent times) voted together as a coherent group.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I don't know why Junts wouldn't support PSOE, this is like they've just won the jackpot, I don't think they'll have a chance to be kingmakers if the elections are repeated. They will probably ask for a lot, but they should meet PSOE halfway if they really want to get something out of this.

Because their entire identity is built around being pro-independence hardliners, so the only big demands they have are to give Puigdemont amnesty or to hold an official referendum, neither of which leaves room for compromise. Also if a VOX-PP government wins they'll have an easier time pushing for full independence than against a semi-conciliatory Socialist grand alliance.

[Zinneke]

I don't know why Junts wouldn't support PSOE, this is like they've just won the jackpot, I don't think they'll have a chance to be kingmakers if the elections are repeated. They will probably ask for a lot, but they should meet PSOE halfway if they really want to get something out of this.

Because their entire identity is built around being pro-independence hardliners, so the only big demands they have are to give Puigdemont amnesty or to hold an official referendum, neither of which leaves room for compromise. Also if a VOX-PP government wins they'll have an easier time pushing for full independence than against a semi-conciliatory Socialist grand alliance.

I'd add to this that Junts also care more about their overall power within the Catalan political context than what happens with Madrid (even something like blocking Vox is irrelevant to them, as they regard it as a Spanish problem), so their negotiating stance is dictated more by how they would look going into a protracted snap election (the Govern in Catalonia currently is a minority ERC one).

It's true that Junts - and ERC - seem to have the kingmaker role at face value but they also know that Sanchez's hands are tied on a range of issues, with the Senate result for example hindering their ability to change judges, or members of his own party including Illa but also Emiliano Garcia-Page who will not want to bend over backwards to satisfy Junts when the former especially must be feeling that he has them "on the ropes" in Catalonian internal political context. And his stock within the party has obviously risen given he has resurrected PSC.

It'll take either a new vote in Catalonia or the whole of Spain to get out of this impass.

[DL]

I don't know why Junts wouldn't support PSOE, this is like they've just won the jackpot, I don't think they'll have a chance to be kingmakers if the elections are repeated. They will probably ask for a lot, but they should meet PSOE halfway if they really want to get something out of this.

Because their entire identity is built around being pro-independence hardliners, so the only big demands they have are to give Puigdemont amnesty or to hold an official referendum, neither of which leaves room for compromise. Also if a VOX-PP government wins they'll have an easier time pushing for full independence than against a semi-conciliatory Socialist grand alliance.

Sounds like how many Quebec separatists had this misconception that if the Conservatives took power in Canada federally they would be so unpopular in Quebec it would pave the way for a resurgence of separatist sentiment. Didn't work out that way...

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

It seems like new elections are the only realistic outcome. Even if someone cobbles together an investiture, they will not be able to pass any meaningful legislation and will have to deal with mociones de censura from all over. Just need to make sure the electorate aren't too tired after an entire year of elections (28M + 23J + the 2nd GE)

[icc]

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1685984337852870656?s=20

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/Nassreddin2002/status/1685984337852870656?s=20

That's a weird statement from UPN. Yes, Feijóo doesn't have the numbers, but Sanchéz's path isn't that clear also. Maybe they are trying to shore up their vote value for a possible 2nd election.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It seems like new elections are the only realistic outcome. Even if someone cobbles together an investiture, they will not be able to pass any meaningful legislation and will have to deal with mociones de censura from all over. Just need to make sure the electorate aren't too tired after an entire year of elections (28M + 23J + the 2nd GE)

Although if Sánchez does manage to form a government, I think it’d be difficult for any moción de censura to prosper. There isn’t a credible alternative that could win in these Cortes.

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Big oof from UPN

[Lumine]

Here's how Bernie Feijoo can still win govern...

[Oryxslayer]

Here's how Bernie Feijoo can still win govern...

Except Feijoo does have an out in a few months, whereas Bernie never did.

[Vosem]

Here's how Bernie Feijoo can still win govern...

Except Feijoo does have an out in a few months, whereas Bernie never did.

Let's say there is an election in a few months -- is the timing going to be very sudden, such that it would be impractical for the PP to sub in someone else, or are all of the parties going to know about it in advance and be able to set up their campaigns with more foresight? I heard the crowd at the PP election night gathering chanting for Ayuso.

PP can still win, but it seems much less clear to me that Feijóo can. (Even if he can, it might depend on things wholly outside of his control.)

[P. Clodius Pulcher did nothing wrong]

Well, it's kind of a rock and a hard place, since if PP dumps Feijoo for someone more exciting (or, at all exciting), then they look unstable and indecisive, but if they keep Feijoo... then they keep Feijoo.

[Lumine]

Here's how Bernie Feijoo can still win govern...

Except Feijoo does have an out in a few months, whereas Bernie never did.

Let's say there is an election in a few months -- is the timing going to be very sudden, such that it would be impractical for the PP to sub in someone else, or are all of the parties going to know about it in advance and be able to set up their campaigns with more foresight? I heard the crowd at the PP election night gathering chanting for Ayuso.

PP can still win, but it seems much less clear to me that Feijóo can. (Even if he can, it might depend on things wholly outside of his control.)

The timing would not be that much of a surprise, though it can be stretched out a bit depending on Sánchez mood I think.

According to press reports, the PP leadership don't seem think a change of leadership right before a second election would be advisable. Should that change, the leading candidates would likely be Ayuso and Moreno, the (somewhat more moderate) Premier of Andalusia.

Going into an election with a recent leader isn't unheard of per se. After all, PP originally chose Aznar - who was virtually unknown - as their candidate in September 1989 expecting an election in Mid 1990, only for Felipe González to call the election on October 1989 without giving them any time to build him up as an opposition leader. González won (again), but Aznar was able to salvage the party from outright disaster (seeing off a challenge from Suárez's CDS and breaking through Manuel Fraga's ceiling despite the election being a defeat).

The difference being, of course, that the PP then was fighting for its life to be a viable opposition (let alone a government), and now they seem to have blown an easy return to government.

[PSOL]

A PP without Ayuso is a PP that will not be in government.

[Bacon King]

A PP without Ayuso is a PP that will not be in government.

is Ayuso really that popular across the political spectrum in general? as an outsider looking in, she strikes me as the sort of candidate who would increase the party's vote share but only at the expense of Vox

[PSOL]

A PP without Ayuso is a PP that will not be in government.

is Ayuso really that popular across the political spectrum in general? as an outsider looking in, she strikes me as the sort of candidate who would increase the party's vote share but only at the expense of Vox

There’s that and the fact that she’ll energize PP voters generally

[mileslunn]

A PP without Ayuso is a PP that will not be in government.

is Ayuso really that popular across the political spectrum in general? as an outsider looking in, she strikes me as the sort of candidate who would increase the party's vote share but only at the expense of Vox

There’s that and the fact that she’ll energize PP voters generally

Unlike US, I think that is less case in Europe as turnout tends to be much higher so its more about persuading people to switch not energizing base.  That works more in US due to lower turnout.  For EU elections and regional may be case as they tend to have lower turnouts than national.  Not saying she couldn't win but elections generally fought over persuading those on fence, not on who you can turnout.

[Zinneke]

A PP without Ayuso is a PP that will not be in government.

is Ayuso really that popular across the political spectrum in general? as an outsider looking in, she strikes me as the sort of candidate who would increase the party's vote share but only at the expense of Vox

Tbh in such a hyperpolarised context it's very difficult to see how Ayuso doesn't just suck voters from a now weakened Vox. That's still a net gain for the PP but it would be tight getting her over the majority line.

On the other hand her impact could be felt in that she's a somewhat remarkably effective campaigner, much to the puzzlement of the Left, as she seems to"get" how to mobilise the normies, be controversial enough but without going as far as Vox. Like all the right wing pundits are somewhat critical of Feijoo even before but see Ayuso as someone who can do no wrong.

 Her key weakness IMO (outside the fact that she has corruption cases on her back as a target), is that she will be deeply unpopular with the PP rank and file in "empty Spain". She could run up the PP vote even in places like Valencia with a similar white collar demographic but crash it in places like Teruel, etc..

Ayuso as PM though, outside of campaigning, would be genuinely embarrassing for Spain, on all levels.

[Vosem]

Sucking voters from Vox might strengthen the right-wing bloc even if PP+Vox doesn't go up at all, right? If Ayuso can get enough voters to switch that PP might not depend on Vox at all, then suddenly a 1996-style arrangement with PNV, or even getting Junts to abstain (less likely), are at least on the table.

[Zinneke]

Sucking voters from Vox might strengthen the right-wing bloc even if PP+Vox doesn't go up at all, right? If Ayuso can get enough voters to switch that PP might not depend on Vox at all, then suddenly a 1996-style arrangement with PNV, or even getting Junts to abstain (less likely), are at least on the table.

Vox won't disappear completely and will likely still be required to govern nationally if Ayuso gets in, meaning no regionalist support. Ayuso will probably fancy her chances of replicated her Madrid act though.

Also PP has firmly tied its mast to not accomodating on the territorial governance issue and Ayuso, even though she is running a shadow early2000s-Convergents-but-for-Madrid government regionally (corruption included), she will bang the war drum of Article 155 and snap elections in Catalonia or locking up some more indepes, as well as institutional tackover of the deep state at a higher level.

We are very far from the days when CiU propped up PP in Madrid or PPC propped up CiU in Barcelona. The landscape has changed. Rivera especially forced PP's hand and moved it to the right on that issue alone.  

[Vosem]

Sucking voters from Vox might strengthen the right-wing bloc even if PP+Vox doesn't go up at all, right? If Ayuso can get enough voters to switch that PP might not depend on Vox at all, then suddenly a 1996-style arrangement with PNV, or even getting Junts to abstain (less likely), are at least on the table.

Vox won't disappear completely and will likely still be required to govern nationally if Ayuso gets in, meaning no regionalist support. Ayuso will probably fancy her chances of replicated her Madrid act though.

Also PP has firmly tied its mast to not accomodating on the territorial governance issue and Ayuso, even though she is running a shadow early2000s-Convergents-but-for-Madrid government regionally (corruption included), she will bang the war drum of Article 155 and snap elections in Catalonia or locking up some more indepes, as well as institutional tackover of the deep state at a higher level.

We are very far from the days when CiU propped up PP in Madrid or PPC propped up CiU in Barcelona. The landscape has changed. Rivera especially forced PP's hand and moved it to the right on that issue alone.  

Doesn't Ayuso's performance in Madrid at least theoretically translate to a national majority, or close to it? I don't think Vox will die either (although, eh, parties in Spain which are not the top two seem oddly fragile), but if a PP majority is a reasonable possibility, then mathematically PP/not Vox also kind of has to be one. (I guess I agree that if PP/PNV is a majority, then PP/Vox would probably also be one, and Vox would realistically be a likelier partner.)

[Zinneke]

Sucking voters from Vox might strengthen the right-wing bloc even if PP+Vox doesn't go up at all, right? If Ayuso can get enough voters to switch that PP might not depend on Vox at all, then suddenly a 1996-style arrangement with PNV, or even getting Junts to abstain (less likely), are at least on the table.

Vox won't disappear completely and will likely still be required to govern nationally if Ayuso gets in, meaning no regionalist support. Ayuso will probably fancy her chances of replicated her Madrid act though.

Also PP has firmly tied its mast to not accomodating on the territorial governance issue and Ayuso, even though she is running a shadow early2000s-Convergents-but-for-Madrid government regionally (corruption included), she will bang the war drum of Article 155 and snap elections in Catalonia or locking up some more indepes, as well as institutional tackover of the deep state at a higher level.

We are very far from the days when CiU propped up PP in Madrid or PPC propped up CiU in Barcelona. The landscape has changed. Rivera especially forced PP's hand and moved it to the right on that issue alone.  

Doesn't Ayuso's performance in Madrid at least theoretically translate to a national majority, or close to it?

No, because Communidad de Madrid is a very different place to Spain. Its one of the easiest capitals  in Europe to govern arguably, because its borders aren't gerrimandered, and its territory is easily developed. Alongside a host of other reasons like service sector dominating there, the theoretical blank cheque support you get from the federal government, etc. Ayuso can try to export her Madrid model to the rest of Spain, which is what she will argue, but it doesn't take into account the race to the bottom problem that Madrid (and the two other economic poles in the north) inevitably benefit from.

I don't think Vox will die either (although, eh, parties in Spain which are not the top two seem oddly fragile), but if a PP majority is a reasonable possibility, then mathematically PP/not Vox also kind of has to be one. (I guess I agree that if PP/PNV is a majority, then PP/Vox would probably also be one, and Vox would realistically be a likelier partner.)

Unless there is some sort of serious collapse of PSOE vote I cannot see how the PP obtains a majority without Vox.