Spanish elections and politics III / Pedro Sánchez faces a new term as PM

[Logical]

I have always thought that repeat elections was the most likely outcome (85% chance). This just makes it all but certain. Funny how Spain has normalized a de facto two round system within a parliamentary democracy.

[Zinneke]

I think Sanchez had the right idea calling the snap election but he should have waited for the PP-Vox regional governments to embarrass themselves more. Now if anything they are backtracking on for example banning Catalan publications in Valencia. Had he let them a couple of months to enact their widespread censorship efforts and insane Vox figures get headlines, it would have maybe pushed him over the line.

[Velasco]

Right now we have a perfect gridlock. The hypothetical investiture blocs would be.

Sánchez 171 (PSOE 121,  Sumar 31, ERC 7, Bildu 6,  PNV 5, BNG 1)
Feijóo 171 (PP 137, Vox 33, UPN 1)
None 8 (Junts 7, CC 1)

On paper ERC is willing to support the investiture of Sánchez, but this is conditioned by the vote of the party membership. Additionally ERC is proposing Junts a joint negotiation with the PSOE

CC won't support any candidate, for the Canarian regionalists equally reject Vox and Sumar

[Mike88]

Madrid CERA results:

19,006 PP
10,411 PSOE
  7,199 Sumar
  6,253 Vox

[Velasco]

Enric Juliana analysis

- The Spanish general election was not only key for the country's political future: it also had a clear European dimension. Right now the political future of Spain is uncertain, but the results halt what sermed to be an unstoppable right-wing wave across Europe

-  The vote in Catalonia,  the Basque Country and other places played a role in halting the right-wing wave (as well as the mobilization of progressive voters in the rest if Spain, I would add). In that regard, Juliana deems important the statements of the Vox leader Santiago Abascal promising a heavy hand with Catalonia.  Fearing a right-wing government would treat them harshly, many voters in Catalonia decided to back the PSC and Sumar.

- The results were a political victory for Pedro Sánchez, as the PSOE leader is alive contradicting his many adversaries that were anticipating his death.

- The results were not bad for the PP, even though conservatives underperformed their expectations. It'd be premature to replace Feijóo, given the likelihood of a repeat election in December

- The disproportionate amount of polls released before the elections (6 trackings per day in the last week) contributed to create the impression that a right-wing victory was inevitable.

- Everything depends on Junts, which placed 5th in Catalonia.  Junts is a heterogeneous movement and its behaviour is unpredictable. Juliana notes, however, that the role of Junts in Catalonia is antagonist of the left

[jaichind]

Right now we have a perfect gridlock. The hypothetical investiture blocs would be.

Sánchez 171 (PSOE 121,  Sumar 31, ERC 7, Bildu 6,  PNV 5, BNG 1)
Feijóo 171 (PP 137, Vox 33, UPN 1)
None 8 (Junts 7, CC 1)

On paper ERC is willing to support the investiture of Sánchez, but this is conditioned by the vote of the party membership. Additionally ERC is proposing Junts a joint negotiation with the PSOE

CC won't support any candidate, for the Canarian regionalists equally reject Vox and Sumar

I thought PP gained a seat from PSOE in Madrid?  So would it not be PP 138 PSOE 120 ?

[Velasco]

I thought PP gained a seat from PSOE in Madrid?  So would it not be PP 138 PSOE 120 ?

If I'm not wrong, results on election night were; PP 136, PSOE 122

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones/generales/

[jaichind]

I thought PP gained a seat from PSOE in Madrid?  So would it not be PP 138 PSOE 120 ?

If I'm not wrong, results on election night were; PP 136, PSOE 122

https://elpais.com/espana/elecciones/generales/

Ah.  Got it .. thanks for this.

[Mike88]

PSOE is now asking for a recount of 30,302 invalid ballots in Madrid after losing one seat to the PP. The party says that the difference between both parties is very close and that they want to be sure that every vote is counted.

[CumbrianLefty]

Which seems reasonable enough, it is fair to say this PP "gain" wasn't terribly expected?

[Mike88]

Which seems reasonable enough, it is fair to say this PP "gain" wasn't terribly expected?

It was another surprise in an election full of surprises. In fact, from the provinces that reveiled their overseas results, overall PP is leading PSOE in terms of votes counted, which is quite surprising as PP normally performes badly in overseas votes.

[Oryxslayer]

Which seems reasonable enough, it is fair to say this PP "gain" wasn't terribly expected?

It was another surprise in an election full of surprises. In fact, from the provinces that reveiled their overseas results, overall PP is leading PSOE in terms of votes, which is quite surprising as PP normally performes badly in overseas ballots.

Also, I think this seat flipping, compared to closer allocations, was deemed "less likely." If I have correctly,  Sumar way outperformed on the CERA, lowering the allocation math to something reasonable,  allowing 9K net votes to swing a seat.

I guess someone can run the formula and see just how tight it is, because I'm sure both PP and PSOE know only a fraction of a fraction of ballots deemed invalid are cured simply during a recount.

[Mike88]

Which seems reasonable enough, it is fair to say this PP "gain" wasn't terribly expected?

It was another surprise in an election full of surprises. In fact, from the provinces that reveiled their overseas results, overall PP is leading PSOE in terms of votes, which is quite surprising as PP normally performes badly in overseas ballots.

Also, I think this seat flipping, compared to closer allocations, was deemed "less likely." If I have correctly,  Sumar way outperformed on the CERA, lowering the allocation math to something reasonable,  allowing 9K net votes to swing a seat.

I guess someone can run the formula and see just how tight it is, because I'm sure both PP and PSOE know only a fraction of a fraction of ballots deemed invalid are cured simply during a recount.

I think that yes, only a fraction of these invalid ballots will be cured, because, at least this is what happens in my country and I believe that in Spain it's the same, when the ballots arrive, they are checked to see if the signatures are right, the documents, etc, and then the counting staff decides, by unanimous vote, if the ballot is counted or not. But, who knows at this point what will happen.

[Mike88]

PSOE is now asking for a recount of 30,302 invalid ballots in Madrid after losing one seat to the PP. The party says that the difference between both parties is very close and that they want to be sure that every vote is counted.

Update: Madrid's Electoral Junta has rejected the PSOE request and there will be no recount.

[Velasco]

Which seems reasonable enough, it is fair to say this PP "gain" wasn't terribly expected?

It was another surprise in an election full of surprises. In fact, from the provinces that reveiled their overseas results, overall PP is leading PSOE in terms of votes counted, which is quite surprising as PP normally performes badly in overseas votes.

Do you have the CERA vote percentages in Spain?

While the PP performed badly in oversas vote,  I think Cs got decent vote percentages in previous elections. Maybe "centrist liberal" expats, people with professional backgrounds, or whatever. Quite possibly the PP benefitted from Cs collapse,  but still the Madrid CERA vote is astonishingly right-wing adding PP and Vox.  Also, Podemos used to be very strong among young expats, winning the overseas vote in 2015 and 2016. Even though Sumar outperforms in CERA vote, it's a modest performance compared to that of Podemos in its heyday. Abolishing the "requested vote" didn't have a great impact in voter turnout,  sadly

I'm reading El País headlines right now:

• Seemingly PSOE and Sumar are preparing a "landing strip" for Junts

• Feijóo requests a meeting with Sánchez, in order to discuss the investiture of the PP candidate

[Vosem]

I'm not sure I follow why PP gaining this seat means Junts needs to vote 'yes' rather than abstain?

PP/Vox/UPN = 171
PSOE/Sumar/ERC/Bildu/PNV/BNG/CC = 172
Junts = 7

I don't think the math has changed in a meaningful way regarding Junts, but PSOE now absolutely needs CC, which in my understanding is the most questionable inclusion, since they have promised not to support a government which includes Sumar or Vox. If they're serious about that, then this goes to new elections, but it could also be posturing. (With the earlier seat count, CC could've also abstained and PSOE still taken office.)

PP/Vox/UPN = 171
PSOE/Sumar/ERC/Bildu/PNV/BNG = 171
Junts/CC = 8

...truly ridiculous breakdown. I think Sánchez is still in a better position than Feijóo but he wasn't in a great one to start with.

I pointed out that if CERA was even slightly helpful for PP they were quite close to gaining a seat in Madrid and another in Girona, and if they could gain both then new elections became an absolute certainty. Gaining just one seems to me like it keeps Sánchez in the driver's seat, even if only very slightly.

[Mike88]

Which seems reasonable enough, it is fair to say this PP "gain" wasn't terribly expected?

It was another surprise in an election full of surprises. In fact, from the provinces that reveiled their overseas results, overall PP is leading PSOE in terms of votes counted, which is quite surprising as PP normally performes badly in overseas votes.

Do you have the CERA vote percentages in Spain?

While the PP performed badly in oversas vote,  I think Cs got decent vote percentages in previous elections. Maybe "centrist liberal" expats, people with professional backgrounds, or whatever. Quite possibly the PP benefitted from Cs collapse,  but still the Madrid CERA vote is astonishingly right-wing adding PP and Vox.  Also, Podemos used to be very strong among young expats, winning the overseas vote in 2015 and 2016. Even though Sumar outperforms in CERA vote, it's a modest performance compared to that of Podemos in its heyday. Abolishing the "requested vote" didn't have a great impact in voter turnout,  sadly

The share of the vote I don't have because some results are only partial and don't include the full tally, but the ballot results from 45 provinces, La Rioja and Girona are incomplete, are the following: (from what I've collected so far)

63,299 PP
53,821 PSOE
28,044 Sumar
21,292 Vox
  2,574 Junts
  2,564 ERC
  1,780 Bildu
  1,647 BNG
  1,430 PNV
     410 UPN

[Bacon King]

I pointed out that if CERA was even slightly helpful for PP they were quite close to gaining a seat in Madrid and another in Girona

La Rioja and Girona are incomplete

how close is PP to winning this Girona seat?

[Mike88]

I pointed out that if CERA was even slightly helpful for PP they were quite close to gaining a seat in Madrid and another in Girona

La Rioja and Girona are incomplete

how close is PP to winning this Girona seat?

The PP was just 363 votes from winning the seat from Junts, but the overseas vote only gave them 275 votes, and Junts got 336 votes. So, it was close but not that much.

[Bacon King]

I'm not sure I follow why PP gaining this seat means Junts needs to vote 'yes' rather than abstain?

you appear to have answered your own question:

PP/Vox/UPN = 171
PSOE/Sumar/ERC/Bildu/PNV/BNG/CC = 172
Junts = 7

I don't think the math has changed in a meaningful way regarding Junts, but PSOE now absolutely needs CC, which in my understanding is the most questionable inclusion, since they have promised not to support a government which includes Sumar or Vox. If they're serious about that, then this goes to new elections, but it could also be posturing. (With the earlier seat count, CC could've also abstained and PSOE still taken office.)

The consensus opinion seems to take their statement at face value, that they can't be persuaded to do anything more than agree to abstain (if even that, not that it matters now)

[Vosem]

I'm not sure I follow why PP gaining this seat means Junts needs to vote 'yes' rather than abstain?

you appear to have answered your own question:

PP/Vox/UPN = 171
PSOE/Sumar/ERC/Bildu/PNV/BNG/CC = 172
Junts = 7

I don't think the math has changed in a meaningful way regarding Junts, but PSOE now absolutely needs CC, which in my understanding is the most questionable inclusion, since they have promised not to support a government which includes Sumar or Vox. If they're serious about that, then this goes to new elections, but it could also be posturing. (With the earlier seat count, CC could've also abstained and PSOE still taken office.)

The consensus opinion seems to take their statement at face value, that they can't be persuaded to do anything more than agree to abstain (if even that, not that it matters now)

Yeah, a lot of the earlier commentary seemed to tacitly assume that CC in the left-wing column, but if they're not gettable for Sánchez even in principle then losing one seat to PP worsens his position very meaningfully.

[Vosem]

(Note that, as BK has documented, Catalonia isn't actually all that much of a problem for the Spanish right -- and in the pre-Vox days CiU had been a partner in at least one PP-led government -- but certainly Scotland is a very real problem for the British Tories. Quebec seems somewhere in between; BQ does not seem as hostile to the CPC as the SNP is to the Tories.)

Catalonia comprises about 16% of the population of Spain, whereas Scotland comprises about 8% of the United Kingdom's population.

Sure, and the difference I'm describing is partially just the product of different electoral systems, but the Spanish right derives much more of its support from Catalonia than the Tories do from Scotland. At the most recent election, 16/170 of the seats for PP/Vox came from Catalonia (about 9%), compared to 6/365 Tory seats coming from Scotland (1.6%), and that was a relatively good performance! It's much harder to cut off 10% of your party's representation than 1.6%. The 'Catalan right' is a much larger part of the Spanish system than 'the Scottish Tories'.

Or, to put things differently, Canada is not a nation state and an attempt to turn it into one fed into the already swelling wave of nationalist sentiment in Quebec while also sparking off a fierce regionalist backlash in the Western provinces. This is an entirely different situation to the Spanish one.

This just pushes the question backwards to some extent, as to why the project which turned Spain into a nation state -- which as the outcome of this election shows many of its citizens are still committed to resisting -- was more successful than the project which attempted to turn Canada into a nation state. As my own post noted "Spanish" is a much older identity than "Canadian", but that kind of thing isn't always determinative.

[Red Velvet]

This is going as I hoped. The PP/Vox government will lack 6 seats for a majority and will be forced to lead the country without getting anything done while just having Vox with power doing / saying crazy evil stuff will energize the left for the next elections.

[Velasco]

This is going as I hoped. The PP/Vox government will lack 6 seats for a majority and will be forced to lead the country without getting anything done while just having Vox with power doing / saying crazy evil stuff will energize the left for the next elections.

There's not going to be a PP-VOX government right now because Feijóo is lacking the votes to pass the investiture. Candidates need absolute majority in the first round (176 out of 350), or simple majority in the second round (more affirmative votes than negative ones).

The chances of Feijóo pass through a repeat election, because predictably there would be a lower turnout and that usually favours the right

[Oryxslayer]

This is going as I hoped. The PP/Vox government will lack 6 seats for a majority and will be forced to lead the country without getting anything done while just having Vox with power doing / saying crazy evil stuff will energize the left for the next elections.

There's not going to be a PP-VOX government right now because Feijóo is lacking the votes to pass the investiture. Candidates need absolute majority in the first round (176 out of 350), or simple majority in the second round (more affirmative votes than negative ones).

The chances of Feijóo pass through a repeat election, because predictably there would be a lower turnout and that usually favours the right

The past two repeat elections have benefited the initial winner. This is weird to say about 2019, cause Sanchez lost a few seats,    but the slight reduction of the Lefts overall strength forced Sanchez and Iglesias to actually compromise and cooperate,  no matter how much they hated it.

The one thing that might be different this time is that the electorate has already repeated a election.  This result in most of the country is a mirror of the local elections from a few weeks ago, with obvious exceptions for certain hyperspecific regional parties and Castille-La Manchas untraditional PSOE government. So would a third  round repeat the initial once again,  or change in some way given time and space between results.