Texas 2022 megathread

[Oakvale]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyways though, I think it's time we discuss last night's election results since we didn't get to do that last night on this thread.

First off, Ken Paxton absolutely trounced George P. Bush by 36%, 68-32, signaling the end of the Bush dynasty in Texas. Bush only carried 5 counties, of which all but 4 were rural counties (and the last being Travis, home of Austin).

For the Democratic runoff for AG, Rochelle Garza beat former Galveston mayor Joe Jaworski 62.7-37.3. The only metro area Jaworski did well in was unsurprisingly Houston, as Galveston is part of the Houston metro. Unfortunately aside from Houston and many rural counties, Jaworski didn't do so hot.

For lieutenant governor, Mike Collier ran away with the nomination in a slightly more competitive race, only winning by 9%. Beckley's strength seemed to be in south Texas, including the San Antonio, El Paso, Laredo, and RGV metro areas, along with many deep red rural counties.

In the railroad commissioner runoff, incumbent Wayne Christian demolished Sarah Stogner by exactly 30%, carrying all but a few counties. Funny enough, Stogner's biggest prize seemed to be the Dallas exurban county of Navarro (home to Corsicana), where Stogner won despite it nearly being an exact tie.

Trump-endorsed candidate Dawn Buckingham trounced Tim Westley for the land commissioner runoff. Slightly disappointing since I voted for Westley (Buckingham barely even had an issues page), but Buckingham's victory is not surprising in the slightest.

What was surprising to me however was the TX HD-63 race, where Ben Bumgarner absolutely trounced Jeff Younger, the father of James Younger, the child whose mother fought for custody to transition him into a transgender girl named Luna.

Lastly, in a victory for me as a Harris County resident, Alexandra del Moral Mealer trounced Vidal Martinez and clinched the nomination for Harris County Judge. Considering the rapid rise in crime in Houston and Harris County, and Lina Hidalgo having scandals of her own, this could potentially be a GOP flip in a county that's surprisingly not as dem-leaning for its size.

Let me know your thoughts on these races!

I'd argue Harris County is abnormally R for a County of it's size also because Houston proper and heavily minotiy communities just have really poor turnout. Rmbr Rs had to cede 4 vote sinks in Harris County to Dems in their pretty maximal gerrymander, just all those sinks have low turnout relative to the more swingy and R suburbs around them. IIRC Biden actually got like 30k more votes in TX-38 than TX-29 despite it being 50 points redder.

I still think Abbott loses Harris but it could be the GOP's last grasp at it, and in a poor turnout election i wouldn't be completely shocked if he does better in Harris than Fort Bend. Love to hear your thoughts on this.

[Politician]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

[Oakvale]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Thanks man. One of the things I value about this forum is I can get the savvy strategic insights

[wbrocks67]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Believe it or not, it is generally a good idea to activate and engage one's own political base ahead of an election.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In this Environment TX is going red

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Yeah gotta agree. Like most people who care about this have politically developed viewpoints and are locks for O Rourke in November. Gun Control I think is sadly one of those issues that really doesn't matter till it personally affects you. I wouldn't be shocked if O' Rourke has a slight boost in a small county like Uvalde in the GE for this reason, but obviously that'd be pretty insignificant electorally overall.

[ElectionsGuy]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Atlas red avatars, Twitter liberals, Hollywood, and the media. That's who he represents. He's going to get so much fundraising over this and a whole lot of people are going to think that means something more profound than rich out-of-state liberals wanting gun control.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Yeah gotta agree. Like most people who care about this have politically developed viewpoints and are locks for O Rourke in November. Gun Control I think is sadly one of those issues that really doesn't matter till it personally affects you. I wouldn't be shocked if O' Rourke has a slight boost in a small county like Uvalde in the GE for this reason, but obviously that'd be pretty insignificant electorally overall.

O'Rouke was attacking the Governor for his handling of the power outage and utilities, and called his policies "socialism". I'd like to see more of that. Abbott has real weak spots, but O'Rouke needs a really disciplined campaign. I don't know that he's able to run such a campaign.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Yeah gotta agree. Like most people who care about this have politically developed viewpoints and are locks for O Rourke in November. Gun Control I think is sadly one of those issues that really doesn't matter till it personally affects you. I wouldn't be shocked if O' Rourke has a slight boost in a small county like Uvalde in the GE for this reason, but obviously that'd be pretty insignificant electorally overall.

O'Rouke was attacking the Governor for his handling of the power outage and utilities, and called his policies "socialism". I'd like to see more of that. Abbott has real weak spots, but O'Rouke needs a really disciplined campaign. I don't know that he's able to run such a campaign.

Ye I agree, that was an issue that had more universal impacts throughout Texas, D or R it was something that people saw firsthand. The main issue I see with Beto is he isn't able to define himself, especially after the Dem 2020 Pres primary. He keeps going back from doing hyper porgressive political stunts and then trying to moderate and it just comes off badly.

I am glad to see the past few cycles generally, there has been more serious turnout and engagement efforts by Texas Dems, and O Rourke Counties to be a big part of that. This isn't a winning campaign but a larger part of a foundation for TX Dems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Who? Atlas red avatars?

Yeah gotta agree. Like most people who care about this have politically developed viewpoints and are locks for O Rourke in November. Gun Control I think is sadly one of those issues that really doesn't matter till it personally affects you. I wouldn't be shocked if O' Rourke has a slight boost in a small county like Uvalde in the GE for this reason, but obviously that'd be pretty insignificant electorally overall.

O'Rouke was attacking the Governor for his handling of the power outage and utilities, and called his policies "socialism". I'd like to see more of that. Abbott has real weak spots, but O'Rouke needs a really disciplined campaign. I don't know that he's able to run such a campaign.

Ye I agree, that was an issue that had more universal impacts throughout Texas, D or R it was something that people saw firsthand. The main issue I see with Beto is he isn't able to define himself, especially after the Dem 2020 Pres primary. He keeps going back from doing hyper porgressive political stunts and then trying to moderate and it just comes off badly.

I am glad to see the past few cycles generally, there has been more serious turnout and engagement efforts by Texas Dems, and O Rourke Counties to be a big part of that. This isn't a winning campaign but a larger part of a foundation for TX Dems.

You raise good points. I'll add more.
Most people vote on basis of what impacts them personally and what they think is in their interests at a given time. And in Texas, differential turnout makes the electorate significantly more tilted towards UMC conservatives than if, say, we had compulsory voting. This can be seen in class-based patterns that have really only gotten weaker in recent years.
What makes the outages so fertile in terms of a campaign is that it impacted everyone, even  these constituencies that are unusually likely to turn out. My local state rep, in a mailer sent to my residence, touted efforts to do "utility reform", which says to me that Rs knew this was a potential vulnerability and so they have pre-empetively sought to neuter it.

[Inmate Trump]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Beto's speech is resonating across the country but doubtful it is with Texas voters.

Like it or not, his interruption sort of made him seem like he's playing politics with the moment. And, frankly, he is even though he's correct in the point he was making. Anyway, it's not going to sit well with independent voters, and Texas isn't blue enough for him to make up the difference, even if it's a slight one. The speech/interruption isn't going to bring in any new voters.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

TX is the most open carry gun state in the nation, and unless there are multiple mass shootings in the state it's a red state Trump is very popular in OH, TX and FL, IA and NC

As I said it's gonna resonate in PA because Toomey won his race over McGinty because he supports background checks

In this Environment it's a 303 map it's not a 413 map it's been like this since Hillary narrowly lost and in 2016 we won 2018, 41H seats but we win 303 GOVS

Beto is trailing by six pts the same as Hegar lost by it's not gonna get closer, you see what Cruz said he told Beto to sit down but red flags laws threat Rick Scott made in TX may pass

Once the Ukraine war started with another oil war, it flipped back to a 303 map but it's not an R nut map MI Gov is close and Kelly is safe in AZ and Pritzker is gonna win but not by 11 but 5 pts

[Comrade Funk]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

Glad you're concerned

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

Would you say Texas is or isn't more pro-gun than Florida?

[wbrocks67]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

You think the political optics of being appalled by the slaughter of schoolchildren might not play well with suburban swing voters? Wow, good to have the inside scoop! I'll let everyone know!

Exploiting a tragedy for political press is't popular with anyone but #resist libs who already would vote for anyone with a (D) next to their name.

Yeah... no. O'Rourke's speech is resonating because people are fed up. This isn't a #resistlib thing. People are f**king tired. He spoke for many people.

Beto's speech is resonating across the country but doubtful it is with Texas voters.

Like it or not, his interruption sort of made him seem like he's playing politics with the moment. And, frankly, he is even though he's correct in the point he was making. Anyway, it's not going to sit well with independent voters, and Texas isn't blue enough for him to make up the difference, even if it's a slight one. The speech/interruption isn't going to bring in any new voters.

literally no proof of this, but okay

[GALeftist]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

The GOP could detonate a nuke in Milwaukee and ElectionsGuy would be out here like "look how out of touch these elitist liberals are, there's no way this is going to play well with voters." Not everything is campaigning, man! Many people are just distraught that we keep sacrificing schoolchildren as a matter of state policy!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Election Guy believes the Rs are the majority and they have lost the popular vote in every election except 2010/2014

[wbrocks67]

Florida Democrats tried to use the Parkland shooting in 2018 to try and humiliate DeSantis, Scott, and Republicans across the state as well. This is not going to work.

The GOP could detonate a nuke in Milwaukee and ElectionsGuy would be out here like "look how out of touch these elitist liberals are, there's no way this is going to play well with voters." Not everything is campaigning, man! Many people are just distraught that we keep sacrificing schoolchildren as a matter of state policy!

people call me a hack when ElectionsGuy is out here literally defending GOP at all costs day in and day out...

[Politician]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

[Xing]

It would be nice to go a day without hearing the old “elitist left-wingers who control everything and live in a bubble” zombie talking point vomited over and over again, much more so after a tragedy. I would think a political forum would at least be better than this.

[wbrocks67]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

With all the people in that room, yes I'm sure you somehow knew exactly who was booing him and who wasn't. Just stop.

[ProgressiveModerate]

You Dems do realize the victims' parents were booing O'Rourke, right?

With all the people in that room, yes I'm sure you somehow knew exactly who was booing him and who wasn't. Just stop.

Also tbf Uvalde is still an R County that will prolly vote for Cornyn