Texas 2022 megathread

[ProgressiveModerate]

I would not be shocked if she lost.

I'm actually moving the race from lean D to tossup. I think Mealer or even Vidal Martinez could win even if it's narrow.

Also remember for a major county like Harris, it's not as dem as y'all think.

This is certainly true. Cornyn and Abbott won it as late as 2014, and even Ted Cruz carried it in his first race back in 2012. Biden only marginally improved there compared to Hillary Clinton, a major reason why Trump comfortably held Texas in 2020. And Hidalgo, who has never been a strong or particularly popular incumbent, was swept in by the 2018 wave.

Harris being relatively R for such a large county is largely because of turnout differentials. It's very much a case where Dems rely on low turnout minority communities whereas white R high turnout burbs cancel out a lot of it.

If 2022 comes down to poor Dem turnout, Harris County would likely be disproportionately impacted, on the flipside there's more upside for Dems with strong turnout.

It's crazy to think how a D + 10ish County basically gets 3.5 dedicated D packs on the congressional level with pretty extreme splitting on Rs part. Texas-29 for instance only cast a total of 174k ballots when most CDs nationally are well over 300k or 400k votes. Nearby TX-38 which is def the favored side of Houston cast 358k votes in 2020 and cast over 25k more votes for Biden despite voting 50+ points to the right. Now just imagine if TX-29 had the same turnout as TX-38

This is how Biden was still able to gain out of Harris County despite the swing map looking brutal for him within the County; turnout in these counties during the 2016 Pres race was even worse.

[Sub Jero]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1515021810529718272

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I would not be shocked if she lost.

I'm actually moving the race from lean D to tossup. I think Mealer or even Vidal Martinez could win even if it's narrow.

Also remember for a major county like Harris, it's not as dem as y'all think.

This is certainly true. Cornyn and Abbott won it as late as 2014, and even Ted Cruz carried it in his first race back in 2012. Biden only marginally improved there compared to Hillary Clinton, a major reason why Trump comfortably held Texas in 2020. And Hidalgo, who has never been a strong or particularly popular incumbent, was swept in by the 2018 wave.

Harris being relatively R for such a large county is largely because of turnout differentials. It's very much a case where Dems rely on low turnout minority communities whereas white R high turnout burbs cancel out a lot of it.

If 2022 comes down to poor Dem turnout, Harris County would likely be disproportionately impacted, on the flipside there's more upside for Dems with strong turnout.

It's crazy to think how a D + 10ish County basically gets 3.5 dedicated D packs on the congressional level with pretty extreme splitting on Rs part. Texas-29 for instance only cast a total of 174k ballots when most CDs nationally are well over 300k or 400k votes. Nearby TX-38 which is def the favored side of Houston cast 358k votes in 2020 and cast over 25k more votes for Biden despite voting 50+ points to the right. Now just imagine if TX-29 had the same turnout as TX-38

This is how Biden was still able to gain out of Harris County despite the swing map looking brutal for him within the County; turnout in these counties during the 2016 Pres race was even worse.

You do realize iits only April it's not over yet the Election is in November

[Real Texan Politics]

We can now project that Greg Abbott will win re-election as governor of Texas.
https://twitter.com/rncresearch/status/1515716494323339271?s=21

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He only jumped into race he thought Sinema was gonna pass Voting Rights now it's impossible for him to win he gonna lose 10/15 pts

Abbott 55/45

[wbrocks67]

We can now project that Greg Abbott will win re-election as governor of Texas.
https://twitter.com/rncresearch/status/1515716494323339271?s=21

And I'm sure there was much more context to this answer than just a RNC Research clipped tweet.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden immigration policies are a disaster

[Calthrina950]

We can now project that Greg Abbott will win re-election as governor of Texas.
https://twitter.com/rncresearch/status/1515716494323339271?s=21

And I'm sure there was much more context to this answer than just a RNC Research clipped tweet.

Nevertheless, there can be no doubt that O'Rourke is a weaker candidate now than he was in 2018. If he hadn't embarked on his abortive presidential bid and made the comments that he did (i.e. "We're going to take your guns"), and if it weren't for the environment, he would have a good shot against Abbott. But that is not so.

[ProgressiveModerate]

One very interesting thing (I pointed something simillar out in the GA thread) is that Dems will likely pretty much hold their ground in state House. Because of a combination of growth, the weird county redistricting rules, and general political shifts throughout the decade, Rs ceded a lot of safe seats to Dems that should hold them above 60 seats even in the worst of nights.

This isn't necessarily a good thing for Dems though. It doesn't matter if the GOP has a supermajority anyways and that was probably never in the books. The GOP's strategy in redistricting was basically to try and make Dems path to a majority as difficult as possible even if it means giving them a few extra seats in the short term. Ironically, the tipping point seat for state House is still pretty much in line with the state despite all their efforts. The State Senate seems a bit more secure longer term.

The GOP's main hope for State House would be RGV and South Texas where there are quite a few Biden + 10ish heavily Hispanic seats that have potential to go hard right if we see 2020 repeat itself. In that case, winning those few extra seats would require Dems to break into the R gerry a bit further in the suburbs. However, given the sheer number of Trump + 7ish suburban seats, when the gerrymander falls it'll really fall so that may not be enough at the end of the day.

I feel like this also shows how the GOP in Texas seems to think they are losing ground compared to say FL where the GOP's legislative gerrymanders were far more tame and seemed to rely heavily on the idea they'd continue to win a lot of the Clinton - Trump Cuban districts and such.

Again, even if suburbs themselves swing back R, a lot of these competitive seats are in the favored quarters of the cities which are growing and diversifying in a way that is not good for the GOP.

[wbrocks67]

It's almost as if its a race between DeSantis and Abbott of who can hurt their own state more but their voters will still end up voting for them. Just so screwed up.

https://twitter.com/lmtnews/status/1517555631913324545

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult has Abbott at +12 approval

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

[LostInOhio]

I have a better chance of becoming governor of Texas than Beto does and I’m a liberal Democrat from Ohio

[ProgressiveModerate]

Morning Consult has Abbott at +12 approval

https://morningconsult.com/2022/04/28/governor-approval-ratings-2022-election/

Their polls generally seem to have a pro-incumbent bias when it comes to approval as I have a hard time believing everyone but Evers is above water.

Either way that doesn't seem particularly great for Abbott though certainly not bad either. This is just one poll though.

[Real Texan Politics]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

[Storr]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Honestly these are the types of things that make this situation a potential positive for the GOP. People have compared this to defunding police. It’s more similar to Kenosha. The negative effect it will have for them is the extent to which the politicians act like Trump, and the reverse backlash will be to the extent that Dems act like defunders

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Beto isn't winning Texas in 2022 barring a miracle, but I'd argue fixing godawful turnout in downtown Dallas and Houston would ultimately go a lot further. Ironically, Austin is really the only majour Texas city with good turnout in hyper D areas (prolly because white liberals).

Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

I think this is sorta a simillar thing to Georgia where Dems technically had the votes to win statewide for a while, it's just turnout in Atlanta was dreadful relative to the rest of the state. Yes the strong swings in GA-06 and GA-07 helped but the number of votes Biden net over Obama in the 3 core Atlanta districts (4, 5, and 13) is insane in comparison.

Also worth noting Davis did end outperforming Obama in Austin and Dallas suburbs (in terms of % margin) but pretty much underperformed everywhere else lol.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Beto isn't winning Texas in 2022 barring a miracle, but I'd argue fixing godawful turnout in downtown Dallas and Houston would ultimately go a lot further. Ironically, Austin is really the only majour Texas city with good turnout in hyper D areas (prolly because white liberals).

Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

I think this is sorta a simillar thing to Georgia where Dems technically had the votes to win statewide for a while, it's just turnout in Atlanta was dreadful relative to the rest of the state. Yes the strong swings in GA-06 and GA-07 helped but the number of votes Biden net over Obama in the 3 core Atlanta districts (4, 5, and 13) is insane in comparison.

Also worth noting Davis did end outperforming Obama in Austin and Dallas suburbs (in terms of % margin) but pretty much underperformed everywhere else lol.

NBC exit polls in 2020 had it at only 48-46, and those that think abortion should be illegal broke 10% harder for Trump than their counterparts did for Biden. So it’s roughly evenly split, is more important to republicans in Texas. When talking about being legal in all cases, only 15% approve. This is in no way a winning issue for Beto

[MT Treasurer]

Bruh
*SNIP*

No need to worry, only Republicans can be "extremists" on this issue and there is no way they can campaign against Democrats when it comes to abortion rhetoric/policy (even though they’ve done it successfully in the past and abortion rights have already been a major issue in countless high-profile national or swing state races way before this SCOTUS leak, abortion will now become an unambiguous winning issue for Democrats in every state). "Beto" can get away with anything as long as voters know he’s pro-choice and Abbott is pro-life

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

.
The state Legislature is R Dominated so it's unlikely to pass even if he was Gov just like Crist if he becomes Gov, he can't raise taxes with an R state Legislature it's MOOT

[Farmlands]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

No legal restrictions on abortion means legal procedures on the third trimester and right up until just before birth, which is a particularly Twitter-brain and gross position to take, and definitely not supported by the majority of people in Texas.

[Politician]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

It's increasingly obvious that pro-lifers have the much better messaging on this issue compared to pro-choicers.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

No legal restrictions on abortion means legal procedures on the third trimester and right up until just before birth, which is a particularly Twitter-brain and gross position to take, and definitely not supported by the majority of people in Texas.

He would be limited with an R dominated State legislature this is amoot issue

Users get so giddy off of one issue

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Beto isn't winning Texas in 2022 barring a miracle, but I'd argue fixing godawful turnout in downtown Dallas and Houston would ultimately go a lot further. Ironically, Austin is really the only majour Texas city with good turnout in hyper D areas (prolly because white liberals).

Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

I think this is sorta a simillar thing to Georgia where Dems technically had the votes to win statewide for a while, it's just turnout in Atlanta was dreadful relative to the rest of the state. Yes the strong swings in GA-06 and GA-07 helped but the number of votes Biden net over Obama in the 3 core Atlanta districts (4, 5, and 13) is insane in comparison.

Also worth noting Davis did end outperforming Obama in Austin and Dallas suburbs (in terms of % margin) but pretty much underperformed everywhere else lol.

There's no reason to think that being more liberal is the key to turning out currently non-voting urban voters.

[Farmlands]

Bruh
https://twitter.com/newswire_us/status/1522265512444583936?s=21&t=PoSr---ePv...

Beto 2022 feels a lot like Wendy Davis 2014. The campaign does all it can to make Austin liberals happy but doesn't really do anything to attract the oh so coveted "moderate" suburban swing voters. This race was always going to be an uphill battle, but it feels like Texas Dems aren't really even trying.

Tbf I do think the degree they need these "swing suburban voters" to win Texas is overrated. Also it's important to remember by and large folks support abortions. Like, most swing voters prolly at least agree abortion should be allowed in cases of rape and incest, though that doesn't mean this isn't poor messaging.

No legal restrictions on abortion means legal procedures on the third trimester and right up until just before birth, which is a particularly Twitter-brain and gross position to take, and definitely not supported by the majority of people in Texas.

He would be limited with an R dominated State legislature this is amoot issue

Users get so giddy off of one issue

Oh, I'm not giddy. I actually think Abbott is one of the worst governors of the country at the moment. Taking him out was very unlikely to happen this year anyway, it's just Beto is making his reelection all the easier here.