Texas 2022 megathread

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Trump was reelected it was a 303 map in 2018 Midterms and 2020 the red wall regardless if Trump is in office or not is secure

With Trump in office we only won WVA and OH Senate and KS Gov and KY abd LA Gov and KS and KY Gov mstill Lean D and Manchin is leading in his race we didn't crack the red wall in 2018 even with Trump at 43 in 2018, 2020 it was still a 303 map just like now it's a 303 map until we start getting blue state polls


Trump built the border wall in the first place to keep immigrants out Biden let immigrants in

[Real Texan Politics]

Abbott has really done pretty much everything he could in the last few years to make himself vulnerable. It's a red year so he won't be, but he's lucky b/c he thinks this is still an R+20 state or something and it's not.

Users need to stop saying red yr and say a 303 map yr just like we had in 2020 Evers, Shapiro and Whitmer aren't losing
Lol it's not a red year D's in 303 states are outpolling Biden but in a 303 map TX and FL are red and AZ, NM, NV and CO are blue it's VBM and D voters can over one Biden 44 Approvals in VBM election not same day

It was only red yr in 2010 it was 11 percent unemployment and in 2014 we weren't in a Pandemic Obamacare was deeply unpopular

red year red year red year red year red year red year

[Utah Neolib]

Abbott has really done pretty much everything he could in the last few years to make himself vulnerable. It's a red year so he won't be, but he's lucky b/c he thinks this is still an R+20 state or something and it's not.

Users need to stop saying red yr and say a 303 map yr just like we had in 2020 Evers, Shapiro and Whitmer aren't losing
Lol it's not a red year D's in 303 states are outpolling Biden but in a 303 map TX and FL are red and AZ, NM, NV and CO are blue it's VBM and D voters can over one Biden 44 Approvals in VBM election not same day

It was only red yr in 2010 it was 11 percent unemployment and in 2014 we weren't in a Pandemic Obamacare was deeply unpopular

red year red year red year red year red year red year

You don’t debate Olakwandi.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Abbott has really done pretty much everything he could in the last few years to make himself vulnerable. It's a red year so he won't be, but he's lucky b/c he thinks this is still an R+20 state or something and it's not.

Users need to stop saying red yr and say a 303 map yr just like we had in 2020 Evers, Shapiro and Whitmer aren't losing
Lol it's not a red year D's in 303 states are outpolling Biden but in a 303 map TX and FL are red and AZ, NM, NV and CO are blue it's VBM and D voters can over one Biden 44 Approvals in VBM election not same day

It was only red yr in 2010 it was 11 percent unemployment and in 2014 we weren't in a Pandemic Obamacare was deeply unpopular

red year red year red year red year red year red year

It's a 303 map because I'm the House most of our losses are gonna be in TX and FL not WI, MI and PA because there are 5 vulnerable Ds in TX this was known before Sinema blocked Voting Rights that's why in Voting Rights it had a ban on Gerrymandering that's why it's not a red yr, wbrooks is a bandwagon jumpers he debated Rs many times and said it's a 393 map not a red yr

[_.]

-FEB 22 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 24

Image Link

1,250,203 Texans have voted so far, 7.28% of registered Texan voters.

473,431 (37.87%) voted in the Democratic Primary
776,772 (62.13%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Uvalde, Loving

[One Term Floridian]

-FEB 22 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 24

Image Link

1,250,203 Texans have voted so far, 7.28% of registered Texan voters.

473,431 (37.87%) voted in the Democratic Primary
776,772 (62.13%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Uvalde, Loving

Sweet we get the RGV back in return for Titanium R TX again

[Real Texan Politics]

-FEB 22 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 24

Image Link

1,250,203 Texans have voted so far, 7.28% of registered Texan voters.

473,431 (37.87%) voted in the Democratic Primary
776,772 (62.13%) voted in the Republican Primary


County Flips

To Republicans: Uvalde, Loving

Finally someone voted in Loving? I mean it's not surprising when the population of the county is literally 64.

Also fun fact, Matthew McConaughey was born in Uvalde, in case y'all didn't know

[Pericles]

Trump losing definitely helps him, but I wonder if Abbott is more confident about his odds because of that and might have acted differently in a six year itch midterm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump losing definitely helps him, but I wonder if Abbott is more confident about his odds because of that and might have acted differently in a six year itch midterm.

Lol it was a 303 map in 2018 and 2020 it wasnt a 413 map when Trump was on the ballot these declarations that it will be a 423'mapneben when Trump in office are totally false who built the border wall, Trump did and he TX have elected Rick Perry in Bush W Midterms and Biden Midterms and Beto is closer than Crist only 7 pts down and Ryan and Beasley are only 4 down it's still VBM we can still win the Midterms it's not October yet

Demings and Crist will lose to DeSantis moreso than the rest of red state D's running because DeSantis did a good job on Surfside that's why he is so popular, Beto being down seven is good news to him not bad news Crist and Demings are down 20

[Real Texan Politics]

Early voting has ended last night, and the primary will take place in 3 days on March 1st. Polls close at 7pm CST.

[ElectionsGuy]

Don't know if this is the last update we'll get, but here's an update, again apples to apples.



 - Turnout has now exceeded 2018 for early voting in these counties. But not [yet] for Democrats.
 - Again, note the RGV counties, Cameron and Hidalgo. Likely a record high number of GOP primary voters there despite continued Dem dominance.
 - In the rest of the state, R primary is outvoting D, 489K(77%)-145K(23%)

[Real Texan Politics]

Seems like Fort Bend’s the only one that narrowed in the dems favor this time. Although I’ll argue that seems to be a guaranteed flip this year as Abbott’s Fort Bend win in 2018 was basically a fluke, especially when Beto overperformed him there by quite a bit.

[Calthrina950]

Seems like Fort Bend’s the only one that narrowed in the dems favor this time. Although I’ll argue that seems to be a guaranteed flip this year as Abbott’s Fort Bend win in 2018 was basically a fluke, especially when Beto overperformed him there by quite a bit.

Abbott won Fort Bend County by only 493 votes that year. O'Rourke won by 30,976 votes. So yes, I expect for Fort Bend County to flip Democratic this year.

[_.]

-FEB 24 UPDATE-

Party with the lead in Early Voting for Primaries by county as of February 25 - FINAL NUMBERS

Image Link

1,645,742 Texans have voted so far, 9.58% of registered Texan voters.

627,095 (38.10%) voted in the Democratic Primary
1,018,647 (61.90%) voted in the Republican Primary

[Unelectable Bystander]

Don't know if this is the last update we'll get, but here's an update, again apples to apples.



 - Turnout has now exceeded 2018 for early voting in these counties. But not [yet] for Democrats.
 - Again, note the RGV counties, Cameron and Hidalgo. Likely a record high number of GOP primary voters there despite continued Dem dominance.
 - In the rest of the state, R primary is outvoting D, 489K(77%)-145K(23%)

Holy El Paso!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The map is biased because Beto doesn't have a primary opponent really do you think the Early vote is going to this far apart in the GE, Rs were gonna vote more Rs than D's because Abbott and West race


Beto isn't getting blown out like Crist is, he is 7 pts down not 20 but this is wave insurance

[Real Texan Politics]

Don't know if this is the last update we'll get, but here's an update, again apples to apples.



 - Turnout has now exceeded 2018 for early voting in these counties. But not [yet] for Democrats.
 - Again, note the RGV counties, Cameron and Hidalgo. Likely a record high number of GOP primary voters there despite continued Dem dominance.
 - In the rest of the state, R primary is outvoting D, 489K(77%)-145K(23%)

Holy El Paso!

El Paso will definitely be one to watch, especially with that being Beto’s hometown.

In a way, nowadays he could be more of a hero to Austin than his own hometown.

[Grassroots]

What are the chances Abbott gets forced into a runoff?

[Roll Roons]

What are the chances Abbott gets forced into a runoff?

I guess it can't be completely ruled out, but it's very unlikely. I think he clears 65 in the first round.

Paxton, on the other hand, will probably be forced into a runoff with P. 

[Saint Milei]

What are the chances Abbott gets forced into a runoff?

20% chance

[Real Texan Politics]

Well, today’s the day! Updates for the statewide races will be provided here (if not by me then by anyone else).

[wbrocks67]

For comparison sake, here is 2018. The total vote was about R+20 in both primaries

Senate Primary
Reps 1,543,674 votes (59.8%)
Dems 1,037,779 votes (40.2%)

Gov Primary
Reps 1,540,296 votes (60.2%)
Dems 1,017,940 votes (39.8%)

[Minnesota Mike]

NYT Results page.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/03/01/us/elections/results-texas.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

Texas SOS results page.

https://results.texas-election.com/landing-page

[Real Texan Politics]

Reminder that runoffs will be held on May 24. AG republican primary is almost certain to go to one.

Also some bold predictions, I expect Beto and Dan Patrick to be called the winners of their respective primaries immediately at poll closing, as neither of them really had any serious opposition. Though if not at the 7pm CST poll closings then they should be called at 8pm CST once the polls in El Paso close (since El Paso is in the Mountain Time Zone).

[Minnesota Mike]

Reminder that runoffs will be held on May 24. AG republican primary is almost certain to go to one.

Also some bold predictions, I expect Beto and Dan Patrick to be called the winners of their respective primaries immediately at poll closing, as neither of them really had any serious opposition. Though if not at the 7pm CST poll closings then they should be called at 8pm CST once the polls in El Paso close (since El Paso is in the Mountain Time Zone).

I don't think there are any exit polls so the AP will wait until at least a little of the vote is in before calling anything. Should not take long since the early vote drops pretty quick.