OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[KaiserDave]

I think Vance winning is inevitable, but there's no doubt he's making this closer than it has to be. Predictions of a 2016 Senate like margin certainly have aged poorly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think Vance winning is inevitable, but there's no doubt he's making this closer than it has to be. Predictions of a 2016 Senate like margin certainly have aged poorly.

Lol he has lost every single poll except Emerson and Traggy Emerson had Trump 15 pts ahead in OH on heels of Espionage do you know exactly what's gonna happen on EDay no one knows nothing is inevitable and models don't matter, the Rs might win the H but we can get any nber of. Senate seats above 50

Models don't matter especially in the S the maps are blank on EDay

Just a note 2010 wasn't a disaster we still had 53 D's in the Sen and expanded it in 2012 but we can win the H back in 24 Biden will be on the ballot

[Senator Incitatus]

Unless "more than half" is just very opaque word choice here (and it very well may be), this is actually not a great sign. Ryan likely needs to be winning ~70% (if not more) of these voters to hit his win number statewide.

Is that the target for Brown-Trump voters or specifically women Brown-Trump voters?

I think Vance winning is inevitable, but there's no doubt he's making this closer than it has to be. Predictions of a 2016 Senate like margin certainly have aged poorly.

To the extent that anyone made an insane R+21 prediction at any point, their prediction hasn't aged at all yet; it's only just September. In 2016 Portman's lead was somewhere in the high 40s at this stage. Vance has already hit 50 in a poll quicker than Portman did (Aug. 19 versus Sep. 7).

[Brittain33]

Vance has already hit 50 in a poll quicker than Portman did (Aug. 19 versus Sep. 7).

Yes, but that's a Trafalgar poll, which also gave Tiffany Smilie in Washington a significantly higher percentage of the vote than she earned from real votes in her state's combined primary. Vance is favored on the fundamentals, but he hasn't "hit 50".

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance has already hit 50 in a poll quicker than Portman did (Aug. 19 versus Sep. 7).

Yes, but that's a Trafalgar poll, which also gave Tiffany Smilie in Washington a significantly higher percentage of the vote than she earned from real votes in her state's combined primary. Vance is favored on the fundamentals, but he hasn't "hit 50".

.

As I said before the reason why Brown was elected Sen the State isn't an R state it has Blue collar appeal Cleveland is the city of WC Prez Grover Cleveland and Cincinnati Suburbs are more D since 2004, the state elected Dennis KUCINICH and Brown at the same time I want Whaley to win very badly but DeWine got 6 percent of the Blk vote in2018 and Renacci got 1, Blks like DeWine and like Ryan just like Blks like DeSantis and Demings is closer than Crist is split voting

Some users think DIXIECRAT and SECULARIST are interchangeable it is now it's called Pragmatism but it wasn't during Apartheid era with Grover Cleveland, he was racist

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/SarahLongwell25/status/1565710650378276868

The Yoga Vote is going to swamp Vance like never before

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance has already hit 50 in a poll quicker than Portman did (Aug. 19 versus Sep. 7).

Yes, but that's a Trafalgar poll, which also gave Tiffany Smilie in Washington a significantly higher percentage of the vote than she earned from real votes in her state's combined primary. Vance is favored on the fundamentals, but he hasn't "hit 50".

I'm simply pointing out it's absurd to say any predictions (again, a prediction I never saw anyone make) have or haven't come true when the campaign starts this weekend. At least one of the few indicators we have so far shows Vance could do very well—Portman did very well despite not having this indicator at this point.

But if we're debunking pollsters based on single polls of theirs, it would make as much or more sense to say Trafalgar is underestimating Vance because they never found Trump hit 50 in Ohio.

[Pollster]

Unless "more than half" is just very opaque word choice here (and it very well may be), this is actually not a great sign. Ryan likely needs to be winning ~70% (if not more) of these voters to hit his win number statewide.

Is that the target for Brown-Trump voters or specifically women Brown-Trump voters?

Probably both, honestly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Vance has already hit 50 in a poll quicker than Portman did (Aug. 19 versus Sep. 7).

Yes, but that's a Trafalgar poll, which also gave Tiffany Smilie in Washington a significantly higher percentage of the vote than she earned from real votes in her state's combined primary. Vance is favored on the fundamentals, but he hasn't "hit 50".

I'm simply pointing out it's absurd to say any predictions (again, a prediction I never saw anyone make) have or haven't come true when the campaign starts this weekend. At least one of the few indicators we have so far shows Vance could do very well—Portman did very well despite not having this indicator at this point.

But if we're debunking pollsters based on single polls of theirs, it would make as much or more sense to say Trafalgar is underestimating Vance because they never found Trump hit 50 in Ohio.

Do you know 2018, Renacci got 1 percent of Blks and DeWine got 6 percent out of 12, percent Blks that's the difference is the Blk vote the same with FL DeSantis is getting 7 PERCENT of Blks and Rubio is getting 1, percent we're not chopped live we vote too

Vance and Rubio are underperform due to in part of the Blk vote and DeWine and DeSantis are getting half the Blk vote

Corduroy underpolled with Blk voters that's why he lost and Kerry didn't do nearly as well as Obama with Blk vote either

As I said before and will say it again Blk 15 and Latino and Arabs 26 percent aren't the majority we are the balance of power on EDay underpolling between 1 and 6 percent can move a race towards the Ds

[2016]

Vance will beat Ryan by 8-10 Points. From the Data I could gather thus far President Bidens Student Loan Forgiveness Program might lure some younger Voters to the Polls in November. However there seems to be a sizeable blacklash among blue collar white working class voters, voters Ryan needs to beat Vance. So the Student Loan Bailout is a net negative for Biden the Democrats particularly in those State who have a high concentration of Blue Collar WWC Voters.

Biden effectivly handed the Senate Race to Vance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will all see what happens in 60 days this race isn't over yet and neither is NC, and FL

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Vance will beat Ryan by 8-10 Points. From the Data I could gather thus far President Bidens Student Loan Forgiveness Program might lure some younger Voters to the Polls in November. However there seems to be a sizeable blacklash among blue collar white working class voters, voters Ryan needs to beat Vance. So the Student Loan Bailout is a net negative for Biden the Democrats particularly in those State who have a high concentration of Blue Collar WWC Voters.

Biden effectivly handed the Senate Race to Vance.

[politicallefty]

Vance will beat Ryan by 8-10 Points. From the Data I could gather thus far President Bidens Student Loan Forgiveness Program might lure some younger Voters to the Polls in November. However there seems to be a sizeable blacklash among blue collar white working class voters, voters Ryan needs to beat Vance. So the Student Loan Bailout is a net negative for Biden the Democrats particularly in those State who have a high concentration of Blue Collar WWC Voters.

Biden effectivly handed the Senate Race to Vance.

And Kathy Hochul is only going to win by 5 points!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is definitely wave insurance we know GA, WI and PA gives D's 52 seats FL, NC and OH gives D's 53

It's a 303 map with wave insurance that's all it is, Demings and Ryan both have a better chance than Nan W and Charlie Crist we can see AZ, GA, OH and FL vote R for Gov and D for Sen like AZ and OH did in 2018 Ducey and Sinema and DeWine and Brown

Just a note that Impact RESEARCH that has Ryan ahead 50/47 isn't a joke pollster it's an AARP poll

[wbrocks67]

Since the May primary, Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan has spent $12 million in Ohio — a significant sum that dwarfs Vance’s $300,000 (Vance and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have also run $1.7 million in coordinated ads).

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/06/election-forecast-dems-gops-senate-00054842

So essentially pre-Labor Day, Ryan spent $12M, while Vance only spent $2M

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1567209528814338050

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/NYTnickc/status/1567209528814338050

https://twitter.com/BradfordPearson/status/1567246834459877379

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, this is Fetterman style "you are out of touch with [this states] voters" type stuff

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1567275008887496704

[Unelectable Bystander]

I don’t blame democrats for pushing this narrative because it’s working in PA but I do blame you if you actually believe it. Is the guy supposed to suspend his campaign for every Saturday until December? I get it if it’s Michigan but people are going to change their votes over him not watching Toledo?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don’t blame democrats for pushing this narrative because it’s working in PA but I do blame you if you actually believe it. Is the guy supposed to suspend his campaign for every Saturday until December? I get it if it’s Michigan but people are going to change their votes over him not watching Toledo?

You’re not from Ohio, I wouldn’t expect you to understand.  No one is going to show up for or pay attention to a Trump rally on the night of a major football game

[Unelectable Bystander]

I don’t blame democrats for pushing this narrative because it’s working in PA but I do blame you if you actually believe it. Is the guy supposed to suspend his campaign for every Saturday until December? I get it if it’s Michigan but people are going to change their votes over him not watching Toledo?

You’re not from Ohio, I wouldn’t expect you to understand.  No one is going to show up for or pay attention to a Trump rally on the night of a major football game

Ah yes, I forgot that on Atlas there is a rule that you are unable to form an educated opinion on a topic unless you originate from the location in question. What kind of logic is that? Does this mean that I should say the same thing to all the European liberals on this site when they comment on American politics?

I am well aware that a certain significant segment of the population will not pay attention to a rally that is held at the same time as a football game. Nobody is talking about that. I simply implied that doing so does not automatically preclude him from being “real Ohio”, which is what Tim Ryan and others have said.

I actually question your knowledge of tOSU football for referring to a game against Toledo as a major football game. It will be effectively over within 15 minutes. I should also point out that playing a team like Toledo in the evening is extremely rare. I’m not sure when the game time was finalized, but it’s possible that the Vance campaign thought that it would be a noon kickoff, as is usually the case when hosting MAC opponents.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, there's 7 days in a week. Trump really couldn't have done a rally any other day that week? Come on now.

[libertpaulian]

Trump and Vance probably assume that the ultra-MAGA boycott of the NFL extends to college football, too.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don’t blame democrats for pushing this narrative because it’s working in PA but I do blame you if you actually believe it. Is the guy supposed to suspend his campaign for every Saturday until December? I get it if it’s Michigan but people are going to change their votes over him not watching Toledo?

You can't suspend a campaign when there is none.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

I don’t blame democrats for pushing this narrative because it’s working in PA but I do blame you if you actually believe it. Is the guy supposed to suspend his campaign for every Saturday until December? I get it if it’s Michigan but people are going to change their votes over him not watching Toledo?

You’re not from Ohio, I wouldn’t expect you to understand.  No one is going to show up for or pay attention to a Trump rally on the night of a major football game

Ah yes, I forgot that on Atlas there is a rule that you are unable to form an educated opinion on a topic unless you originate from the location in question. What kind of logic is that? Does this mean that I should say the same thing to all the European liberals on this site when they comment on American politics?

I am well aware that a certain significant segment of the population will not pay attention to a rally that is held at the same time as a football game. Nobody is talking about that. I simply implied that doing so does not automatically preclude him from being “real Ohio”, which is what Tim Ryan and others have said.

I actually question your knowledge of tOSU football for referring to a game against Toledo as a major football game. It will be effectively over within 15 minutes. I should also point out that playing a team like Toledo in the evening is extremely rare. I’m not sure when the game time was finalized, but it’s possible that the Vance campaign thought that it would be a noon kickoff, as is usually the case when hosting MAC opponents.

Almost every OSU game is a major game

I don’t expect you or Vance to understand though, since neither of you are Ohioans