OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance (user search)
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  OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance  (Read 95006 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: June 29, 2021, 01:38:02 PM »
https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/2021/06/29/josh-mandel-campaign-toxic-work-environment-sources-say/5323272001/
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2021, 02:10:18 PM »


Do you think he's ever heard of the First Amendment?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: May 01, 2022, 09:40:16 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: May 03, 2022, 03:30:35 PM »
Rain in SOhio?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: July 15, 2022, 10:39:12 AM »
Quote from: Pollster on July 15, 2022, 09:48:47 AM
Had dinner with a Republican pollster friend (yes, I have them) last night - he is not polling for Vance but relayed that their numbers for a different client show Ryan gaining significant ground and that there is growing concern that the Vance team doesn't understand that they have a real fight on their hands. Majewski in the Toledo seat is apparently in the same boat and has not made any public appearances recently outside of right-wing podcasts and streaming channels - folks in the party are dreading what his fundraising numbers will be later today.

Don't worry, I cheered him up with plenty of the terrible numbers I've seen prettymuch everywhere else in the country.

I was really enjoying this post until the last sentence. Wink
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2022, 04:26:58 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2022, 05:15:37 PM »
Quote from: Dark Brandon on August 06, 2022, 05:01:42 PM
Quote from: SnowLabrador on August 06, 2022, 04:29:05 PM
I don't buy that this is truly competitive. It's going to be a redux of KS-SEN 2020.

Of course you don't.

We should buy ads having him tell all Republican voters and donors that Vance already has it in the bag, so they don't need to be concerned about it!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: August 13, 2022, 03:57:34 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2022, 04:59:34 PM »
Crystal Ball moved this race from Likely R to Lean R today.  This sentence caught my eye:

Quote
Our understanding is that private polling in the race is good for Ryan and that an internal poll released several weeks ago by Ryan’s campaign showing him leading 48%-45% may actually understate his advantage compared to unreleased surveys on both sides.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-august-24-2022/
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: August 25, 2022, 01:43:38 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2022, 01:44:55 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2022, 07:50:33 PM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on September 10, 2022, 07:27:18 PM
Quote from: Pollster on September 10, 2022, 11:48:17 AM


Tim Ryan is running a good campaign, but he's going to lose simply because of Ohio's Republican lean and polarization. I think this explains why Vance has not bothered to campaign and has sat on his laurels. He knows that he is virtually guaranteed that seat on a silver platter. He doesn't need to lift a finger.

That's a good way to lose.  Ohio may have a Republican lean, but it's not Alabama or Wyoming.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: September 15, 2022, 05:26:26 PM »
Gosh, a couple of polls between different candidates for different offices in different years have the same numbers!  What a shocking correlation!
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: September 15, 2022, 05:49:47 PM »
Quote from: AncestralDemocrat. on September 15, 2022, 05:29:26 PM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 15, 2022, 05:26:26 PM
Gosh, a couple of polls between different candidates for different offices in different years have the same numbers!  What a shocking correlation!
Same margins in exactly the same timeframe for a cycle.. yes, it is a interesting correlation, especially as there seems to be those who suggest Ryan is favoured.

There are some who suggest that, although I'm not one of them; I have the race at Lean R.  The margin in this poll is quite plausible, but IMO the same margin showing up in the presidential poll you cited is nothing more than coincidence.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: September 17, 2022, 03:21:27 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2022, 10:52:16 AM »
Quote from: Calthrina950 on September 18, 2022, 10:42:23 AM
Quote from: Official Penguin Books Account on September 18, 2022, 10:30:43 AM
Looks like there were actually some empty seats at a Trump rally for once:


Perhaps because of the football game. But at any rate, there still should be no suspense about what the final outcome in Ohio will be.

Yep, it was obvious that Ohio State would crush Toledo (they did, 77-21).
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: September 28, 2022, 01:03:00 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: October 04, 2022, 07:26:13 PM »

Sure, I call it Lean R.  I define Lean as "one side is currently favored, but it wouldn't be a real surprise if the other won."
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2022, 01:12:13 PM »
Don't descend into a name-calling match, please.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2022, 03:42:30 PM »
Quote from: philly09 on October 05, 2022, 03:41:29 PM
DDHQ has moved this race from Lean R to Toss-Up.

I'll note that they have a very wide definition of Toss-up; IIRC it's anything under a 65% favorite.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 11, 2022, 02:39:35 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: October 12, 2022, 04:44:37 PM »
On the day that a jury socked Alex Jones for nearly $1 Billion in damages to the Sandy Hook families, a reminder:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: October 13, 2022, 06:04:18 PM »

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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: October 13, 2022, 07:23:11 PM »
Mod request: how about taking the debate on the relative merits of Alex Jones and Rachel Maddow to a separate thread.  It's veering this one off the rails.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: October 14, 2022, 07:42:33 PM »

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