OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Ryan is not running in a D+7 national environment, is not an incumbent, is running against 4 more years of pro-republican demographic trends in Ohio, and is facing an actual opponent -- not a fill in for the frontrunner who dropped out weeks before the filing deadline.

I am very high on Dem chances in midterms, Dobbs has been fortuitous without question. But Ohio is not a swing state anymore.

Ryan is up by 9 pts in OH take it or leave it we won 51/47 PVI in 2012 4 pts and Brown won too and Biden was Veep that was not a D plus 7 and Brown won by 6 , in a 2018 Environment in 2022 Ryan will win by 2

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Users need to stop Dooming on Ryan we have 8 weeks till the EDay will will find out out but if you have an R nut map it can be wrong it's an upset as I said along with NC and FL just all all Liddy Dole internals had her Gordon Smith and Ted Stevens winning and weren't supposed to win 59 seats, the only seat I knew was MN and Franken barely won because Coleman was a Moderate

The polls underestimate Chambliss he ended in a Runoff and was supposed to win. In a landslide and overestimate Franken he ended up in a recount because Norm Coleman is a moderate

Franken was supposed to win by 5/9 and so was Chambliss


I had GA safe R until I changed it and MN safe D, it was wrong and if you put OH safe R you can't update your map after EDay

This is a BELLWETHERS for KY 2023 and MT, WVA and OH in 24 we don't want to lose the Sen on OH in 24

[windjammer]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Ryan is not running in a D+7 national environment, is not an incumbent, is running against 4 more years of pro-republican demographic trends in Ohio, and is facing an actual opponent -- not a fill in for the frontrunner who dropped out weeks before the filing deadline.

I am very high on Dem chances in midterms, Dobbs has been fortuitous without question. But Ohio is not a swing state anymore.

Well keep in mind Ryan isn't running against dewine but against Vance

[bagelman]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Ryan is not running in a D+7 national environment, is not an incumbent, is running against 4 more years of pro-republican demographic trends in Ohio, and is facing an actual opponent -- not a fill in for the frontrunner who dropped out weeks before the filing deadline.

I am very high on Dem chances in midterms, Dobbs has been fortuitous without question. But Ohio is not a swing state anymore.

Well keep in mind Ryan isn't running against dewine but against Vance

Yes? If he were running against DeWine the race would be over and we'd be talking about whether DeWine cracks 60% or not. Vance is weak enough to provide what on the surface looks like a competitive race but that doesn't make Ryan favored in a state like Ohio.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ryan's approval in his own district doesn't matter much. The rest of the state/low information voters don't and his spending is defining him in a more positive light.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan is a neoliberal internationalist. All of the flaws of Sherrod Brown, with none of the upside. He's likely to lose 10+ in a year in which Dems hold the House+Senate.

The people of Ohio are too smart to vote for someone who supports his evil brand of politics.

All of the flaws of... a man who won the state by seven points four years ago. Brilliant logic.

Ryan is not running in a D+7 national environment, is not an incumbent, is running against 4 more years of pro-republican demographic trends in Ohio, and is facing an actual opponent -- not a fill in for the frontrunner who dropped out weeks before the filing deadline.

I am very high on Dem chances in midterms, Dobbs has been fortuitous without question. But Ohio is not a swing state anymore.

Well keep in mind Ryan isn't running against dewine but against Vance

Yes? If he were running against DeWine the race would be over and we'd be talking about whether DeWine cracks 60% or not. Vance is weak enough to provide what on the surface looks like a competitive race but that doesn't make Ryan favored in a state like Ohio.

Look at the polls it's close it doesn't matter if Ohio is an R plus 8 state and yeah DeWine won by only 3 in 2018 he's not winning by 20

[wbrocks67]

Ryan's approval in his own district doesn't matter much. The rest of the state/low information voters don't and his spending is defining him in a more positive light.

This is what I wrote basically in the Suffolk polling thread. This race may be the most consequential in terms of how Ryan was able to define himself basically the entire summer, and also define Vance, with Vance now only limping to run ads with less than 2 months out, while Ryan's favorability rating is still nearly +20.

[Pres Mike]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

Vance probably doesn't even know or care. There was nobody at his campaign to tell him.

[Sir Mohamed]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

Vance probably doesn't even know or care. There was nobody at his campaign to tell him.

Yup, and former should actually be disqualifying for any candidate already. The dude is really a horrible candidate and it's kind of embarrassing that he maintains a significant chance to win.

[Xing]

Oh come on, surely you all know not giving a s*** about other people is totally “populist”, right? I’m still not moving this race from Safe R, but Vance is really lucky that this is a Democratic midterm and that Ohio has trended so far to the right.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Oh come on, surely you all know not giving a s*** about other people is totally “populist”, right? I’m still not moving this race from Safe R, but Vance is really lucky that this is a Democratic midterm and that Ohio has trended so far to the right.

And xing, don't you know, a neoliberal establishment republican like John Kasich or Rob Portman would do way worse than a #populist like Vance, right ? /s

[MT Treasurer]

Oh come on, surely you all know not giving a s*** about other people is totally “populist”, right? I’m still not moving this race from Safe R, but Vance is really lucky that this is a Democratic midterm and that Ohio has trended so far to the right.

And xing, don't you know, a neoliberal establishment republican like John Kasich or Rob Portman would do way worse than a #populist like Vance, right ? /s

"Only Trump could have beaten Hillary in 2016"

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

(a) You simply made that up. It's not a top five state in Ukrainian ancestry or origin. This July article from the Census Bureau doesn't even bother mentioning Ohio once, but its population claiming Ukrainian ancestry is certainly less than a small town's worth.

(b) Spartz herself has been loudly critical of American funding for the Ukrainian government, maybe moreso than House member after Massie. Granted, Vance's comments (out-of-context) are callously dismissive of suffering. That's different, but it's unfair to Spartz to imply divided loyalties just because of her ethnicity. The United States does not require a blood quantum for nationality or adherence to the national interest.

(c) Even if Spartz did have foreign loyalties, could he not disagree with a member of his party? I think a lot of what people like about Vance is that he's not the traditional sort of coward who would simply bend over backwards by making bad policy to appeal to dubious interests, merely because they exist.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

(a) You simply made that up. It's not a top five state in Ukrainian ancestry or origin. This July article from the Census Bureau doesn't even bother mentioning Ohio once, but its population claiming Ukrainian ancestry is certainly less than a small town's worth.

(b) Spartz herself has been loudly critical of American funding for the Ukrainian government, maybe moreso than House member after Massie. Granted, Vance's comments (out-of-context) are callously dismissive of suffering.

(c) Even if Spartz did have foreign loyalties, could he not disagree with a member of his party? I think a lot of what people like about Vance is that he's not the traditional sort of coward who would simply bend over backwards by making bad policy to appeal to dubious interests, merely because they exist.

Data from 2009 says there are 49,000 Ukrainian-Americans in Ohio (fifth largest such tally in the country). While that could decide a close election, I doubt that it is as singularly important that Ukraine could swing the result. The majority of voters who would care about it probably have little to no Ukrainian blood to speak of, given how few Ukrainian-Americans there are. This isn't even getting into Russian-Americans...though the same disclaimers you put out with Ukrainians also apply to Russians. I don't think there's much polling or research about what Russian-Americans think of the "special military operation", actually, but there are almost certainly more Russian-Americans than Ukrainian-Americans in Ohio.

[Senator Incitatus]

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

(a) You simply made that up. It's not a top five state in Ukrainian ancestry or origin. This July article from the Census Bureau doesn't even bother mentioning Ohio once, but its population claiming Ukrainian ancestry is certainly less than a small town's worth.

(b) Spartz herself has been loudly critical of American funding for the Ukrainian government, maybe moreso than House member after Massie. Granted, Vance's comments (out-of-context) are callously dismissive of suffering.

(c) Even if Spartz did have foreign loyalties, could he not disagree with a member of his party? I think a lot of what people like about Vance is that he's not the traditional sort of coward who would simply bend over backwards by making bad policy to appeal to dubious interests, merely because they exist.

Data from 2009 says there are 49,000 Ukrainian-Americans in Ohio (fifth largest such tally in the country) ... This isn't even getting into Russian-Americans...

Well, I linked much better data from 2022 showing that Ohio is clearly not in the top five and the original absurd claim was that it was #1.

As far as Russian ethnics go, I would actually guess they feel far less intensely about this since: (a) many more identify with the opposition in Russia for various reasons, (b) they are far more assimilated given historical immigration patterns, (c) Russia is the invading country, which almost always stokes less intense feelings in war.

The people this will actually rally are American nationalists, i.e., Vance's base.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

(a) You simply made that up. It's not a top five state in Ukrainian ancestry or origin. This July article from the Census Bureau doesn't even bother mentioning Ohio once, but its population claiming Ukrainian ancestry is certainly less than a small town's worth.

(b) Spartz herself has been loudly critical of American funding for the Ukrainian government, maybe moreso than House member after Massie. Granted, Vance's comments (out-of-context) are callously dismissive of suffering.

(c) Even if Spartz did have foreign loyalties, could he not disagree with a member of his party? I think a lot of what people like about Vance is that he's not the traditional sort of coward who would simply bend over backwards by making bad policy to appeal to dubious interests, merely because they exist.

Data from 2009 says there are 49,000 Ukrainian-Americans in Ohio (fifth largest such tally in the country) ... This isn't even getting into Russian-Americans...

Well, I linked much better data from 2022 showing that Ohio is clearly not in the top five and the original absurd claim was that it was #1.

As far as Russian ethnics go, I would actually guess they feel far less intensely about this since: (a) many more identify with the opposition in Russia for various reasons, (b) they are far more assimilated given historical immigration patterns, (c) Russia is the invading country, which almost always stokes less intense feelings in war.

The people this will actually rally are American nationalists, i.e., Vance's base.

Perhaps the original claim was in percentage terms, not pure numbers. And Ohio does seem to be more Ukrainian than the country as a whole, though that's not saying too much. In any case, I agree that it would rally Vance-style American nationalists, a key segment of his base, insofar as it has impact on the race at all (it could still influence other demos, of course).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Oh come on, surely you all know not giving a s*** about other people is totally “populist”, right? I’m still not moving this race from Safe R, but Vance is really lucky that this is a Democratic midterm and that Ohio has trended so far to the right.

And xing, don't you know, a neoliberal establishment republican like John Kasich or Rob Portman would do way worse than a #populist like Vance, right ? /s

"Only Trump could have beaten Hillary in 2016"

This was never the CW.  On the contrary, the widespread believe was always that only Trump was capable of blowing things badly enough to lose to Clinton and he came pretty close to doing so.

[It’s so Joever]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he still feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

Ryan should press Vance hard on this in the Columbus and Cleveland media markets.

[Alben Barkley]

JD Vance will immediately become one of the most reprehensible senators for his stances on Russia/Ukraine alone. I'm sure he and Rand Paul will be butt buddies though.

[Pres Mike]

Vance knows Ohio has the largest Ukrainian American community in the country right? That it’s large enough that in prior elections candidates have courted them because they were seen as swing voters and critical to a close election?

Vance knows that Victoria Spartz, a republican Ukrainian born congresswomen serves in next door in Indiana right?

(a) You simply made that up. It's not a top five state in Ukrainian ancestry or origin. This July article from the Census Bureau doesn't even bother mentioning Ohio once, but its population claiming Ukrainian ancestry is certainly less than a small town's worth.

(b) Spartz herself has been loudly critical of American funding for the Ukrainian government, maybe moreso than House member after Massie. Granted, Vance's comments (out-of-context) are callously dismissive of suffering. That's different, but it's unfair to Spartz to imply divided loyalties just because of her ethnicity. The United States does not require a blood quantum for nationality or adherence to the national interest.

(c) Even if Spartz did have foreign loyalties, could he not disagree with a member of his party? I think a lot of what people like about Vance is that he's not the traditional sort of coward who would simply bend over backwards by making bad policy to appeal to dubious interests, merely because they exist.

Actually
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/21/ukrainian-american-voters-eye-on-russia-00010148

80,000 Ukrainians live in Ohio. You are false here

[Koharu]

(a) You simply made that up. It's not a top five state in Ukrainian ancestry or origin. This July article from the Census Bureau doesn't even bother mentioning Ohio once, but its population claiming Ukrainian ancestry is certainly less than a small town's worth.

(b) Spartz herself has been loudly critical of American funding for the Ukrainian government, maybe moreso than House member after Massie. Granted, Vance's comments (out-of-context) are callously dismissive of suffering. That's different, but it's unfair to Spartz to imply divided loyalties just because of her ethnicity. The United States does not require a blood quantum for nationality or adherence to the national interest.

(c) Even if Spartz did have foreign loyalties, could he not disagree with a member of his party? I think a lot of what people like about Vance is that he's not the traditional sort of coward who would simply bend over backwards by making bad policy to appeal to dubious interests, merely because they exist.

Actually
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/21/ukrainian-american-voters-eye-on-russia-00010148

80,000 Ukrainians live in Ohio. You are false here

US Census Bureau > Random local news station

The Politico article cites a local news station for their 80k number, and the local news station doesn't indicate where they got 80k from. I'll take the US Census Bureau's number more seriously.

[It’s so Joever]

Regardless, there are TONS of Poles in Cleveland area. I have a hard time believing they are exactly pro Russia right now.

[prag_prog]

Somebody should probably follow up with Jay Dee and see if he still feels this way:


https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1495091506952159233

eh..I don't think this matters much. It's not some outlandish statement even though I don't agree with it. Lot of politicians nationally said some similar statements...Republican base would love hearing things like this. Probably some people from Republican base would like Vance more after hearing this.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I might regeret but i think Ryan is favoured at this point.
https://twitter.com/AnnaStaver/status/1570472246166147074