OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Ohio State always play well in reg season and when it gets time for playoffs they stink and they haven't won a title since 2015 with Ezekiel Elliott

Utah and Ohio Senate can be the upset of EDay, D's winning 54 SEATS

God you set the record for ridiculous things.

Ohio State had an unreal team in 2019 and frankly got screwed in 2019 by a targeting call against a top corner and a horrific non fumble call and then the WR breaking off the route in the red zone.

Then in 2020 they beat a heavily favored Clemson team before succumbing to a loaded Bama team.

And you’re obviously wrong about Ohio and UTAH?! come on LOL trolling much?

WTF Heretic.

[Pollster]

Big oppo drop on Marcy Kaptur's opponent in OH-9. Can't remember the last time a candidate for a major office was credibly accused of stolen valor.

https://twitter.com/BrianSlodysko/status/1572630032664625159?s=20&t=mKwdtwp4...

[Senator Incitatus]

Big oppo drop on Marcy Kaptur's opponent in OH-9. Can't remember the last time a candidate for a major office was credibly accused of stolen valor.

Really? It feels like it happens pretty much annually. Several of them are currently in office.

Also very hard to call what Majewski is guilty of here (calling himself an "Afghanistan War" veteran when he was deployed on a support mission to Qatar and calling himself a "combat veteran" because the U.S. government designated him one) "stolen valor"; it's the sort of misleading exaggeration that both veterans and politicians are well-known for. Something on this level happens pretty much every time a veteran runs for office.

[Pollster]

Big oppo drop on Marcy Kaptur's opponent in OH-9. Can't remember the last time a candidate for a major office was credibly accused of stolen valor.

Really? It feels like it happens pretty much annually. Several of them are currently in office.

Also very hard to call what Majewski is guilty of here (calling himself an "Afghanistan War" veteran when he was deployed on a support mission to Qatar and calling himself a "combat veteran" because the U.S. government designated him one) "stolen valor"; it's the sort of misleading exaggeration that both veterans and politicians are well-known for. Something on this level happens pretty much every time a veteran runs for office.

This feels like something you'd see more often, but the more I think about it I can't point to many specific cases (doesn't mean they don't exist though). Regardless, whenever vet service is attacked the campaign usually refutes it forcefully, whereas Majewski's team practically concedes here. Also have heard that the candidate has made varying and differing statements about his service in different settings (which probably is what sparked the AP looking into) though I'm not too familiar with him or his team - first time candidate with bad handlers probably walked right into this one - so hard to draw a through-line for what exactly he's exaggerated.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Yogic flying is real. I believe in yogic flying.

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1573304792486744064?t=MzKC4qHm62dD3usc...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Change has Ryan ahead too

https://twitter.com/FreeCollegePlz/status/1573352854458441730?t=mnSL3S35B0Q4BlJ17m6N-w&s=19

47/42 change research

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Memes aside, while Ryan still not getting to 50 anywhere is a flashing red light that he could and very likely will be screwed by 'undecideds' on the day, Vance failing to break 48 anywhere but Trafalgar and indeed often polling well below that is still even more of a flashing light. The obvious comeback is that this is also what happened with DeWine/Cordray, but it isn't as though DeWine is someone who inspires a huge amount of enthusiasm, and Vance is a much worse candidate.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1574358067499737089

[wbrocks67]

We knew candidates get better rates than PACs, but damn, when put like this, it's pretty stunning. Because of Vance's horrific fundraising, he's only really able to get ~20% more airtime with his ads, despite his campaign + PACs spending $30M+ compared to Ryan's $13.6M. So even with this huge influx of cash from McConnell, he's really only just getting slightly above parity with Ryan.

From September through the Nov. 8 election, Ryan and his allies have reserved $13.6 million in TV ads throughout the state. Ryan’s campaign funded the vast majority – about 83% – with the rest coming from outside groups, including Save America Fund, a pro-Ryan group.

Meanwhile, Vance and his allies have spent about $30.6 million on ads. Ninety-two percent of that is coming from outside groups, nearly all of which is from Senate Leadership Fund PAC, which has close ties to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. About $2.4 million is coming directly from Vance’s campaign.

Even though Vance and his allies are spending almost three times as much as Ryan, they’re only getting about 20% more airtime. That’s largely because candidates, under federal law, get much better prices compared to outside PACs.

https://www.cleveland.com/news/2022/09/whos-funding-tim-ryan-and-jd-vance-in-ohios-us-senate-race.html

[wbrocks67]

Curious for those Ohio'ans - has Ryan put an emphasis on abortion?

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1574876954364297216

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is gonna be the same as KY 2019 Beshear v Bevin 2.0 it went all the way down to Provisional ballots and users are trying to compare Chabot district to Senate race lol Steve Chabot won Cincy while Brown and DeWine we're winning statewide office, 2018, obviously, there is split vote between DeWine, Ryan and Chabot but Landsman is gonna win

Ryan is winning Chabot district 51/43 and Landsman is up 49/46 because DeWine is beating Nan W in Chabot district not becausr Vance is beating Ryan, Vance is getting crushed by Afro Americans whereas DeWine isn't he won a large percentage of Afro Americans in 2018, DeWine over Cirdray, there are alot of Afro Americans in Steve Chabot district

Bevin lost the swing Afro Americans vote too, that's why he lost

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Curious for those Ohio'ans - has Ryan put an emphasis on abortion?

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1574876954364297216

Not as far as I know

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Big oppo drop on Marcy Kaptur's opponent in OH-9. Can't remember the last time a candidate for a major office was credibly accused of stolen valor.

Really? It feels like it happens pretty much annually. Several of them are currently in office.

Also very hard to call what Majewski is guilty of here (calling himself an "Afghanistan War" veteran when he was deployed on a support mission to Qatar and calling himself a "combat veteran" because the U.S. government designated him one) "stolen valor"; it's the sort of misleading exaggeration that both veterans and politicians are well-known for. Something on this level happens pretty much every time a veteran runs for office.

This feels like something you'd see more often, but the more I think about it I can't point to many specific cases (doesn't mean they don't exist though). Regardless, whenever vet service is attacked the campaign usually refutes it forcefully, whereas Majewski's team practically concedes here. Also have heard that the candidate has made varying and differing statements about his service in different settings (which probably is what sparked the AP looking into) though I'm not too familiar with him or his team - first time candidate with bad handlers probably walked right into this one - so hard to draw a through-line for what exactly he's exaggerated.

The big comparison I can think of is Richard Blumenthal, who claimed to have been in Vietnam when he was actually in the Marine reserves stateside after getting multiple deferments. Frankly Blumenthal's case was worse (at least Majewski could argue he was participating in the Afghanistan war by loading boxes in Qatar around 2001) but it didn't seem to hurt him too much in the end. Of course OH-9 is a lot closer than Connecticut so it could make the difference but probably only if the race comes down to the wire.

[Yoda]

Curious for those Ohio'ans - has Ryan put an emphasis on abortion?

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1574876954364297216

Not that I've seen or heard, no. Which is a huge mistake. Talking about the republicans forcing a 10 y/o rape victim to have to leave the state to have an abortion should be a no-brainer. He should be absolutely crucifying Vance over that.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Curious for those Ohio'ans - has Ryan put an emphasis on abortion?

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1574876954364297216

Not that I've seen or heard, no. Which is a huge mistake. Talking about the republicans forcing a 10 y/o rape victim to have to leave the state to have an abortion should be a no-brainer. He should be absolutely crucifying Vance over that.

I actually disagree; running heavily on abortion would be a major blunder in Ryan’s case and probably kill any chance he has of pulling off the upset.  Ryan’s biggest problem is that undecideds in Ohio statewide races are overwhelmingly, albeit not exclusively, Republicans who don’t like or are otherwise unenthusiastic about Vance. 

Where these folks seem to be at imo is that 1 They don’t really mind Ryan himself and if anything have a lowkey favorable opinion of him; 2 They still hate Biden/the national Democratic Party’s guts and are reluctant to vote for Ryan almost entirely b/c he is a Democrat; 3 They really don’t like Vance and probably wouldn’t vote for him (or would at least skip the race) if the election were today, but are still looking for an excuse to vote for Vance since he’s the Republican; and 4 they’re like meerkats looking for the slightest sign Tim Ryan’s “I’m not like other Democrats” schtick is a load of BS.

If Ryan runs hard on abortion, then that’s these folks excuse to vote Vance.  “Sure Vance sucks, but it’s not about him.  It’s about protecting the sanctity of life and stopping Tim Ryan from letting Planned Parenthood go back to murdering millions of unborn babies” becomes an easy rationalization for such voters to support Vance. 

At this point, either Ryan has the level of support he needs from Democrats, independents, Never Trump folks still in denial about the Republican party, and any pro-choice Republicans floating around in the suburbs or he doesn’t.  If he doesn’t, then none of this matters anyway.  If he does, that’s still not quite enough even in a perfect storm. 

He also needs to get enough of the type of undecided voter I described.  And that means being 100% beyond reproach in every way for them so they have no rationalization available for holding their nose and towing the party line.  Then, maybe Ryan gets just enough to eek out a narrow win if everything goes perfectly with GOTV and enough undecided Republicans sit out the race or buy into Ryan’s schtick. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/JuliaManch/status/1575179252898865153

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ohio-senate-hopeful-tim-ryan-175143254.html

Meanwhile Ryan is making stops in California

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1577018237354639370

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Curious for those Ohio'ans - has Ryan put an emphasis on abortion?

https://twitter.com/pollreport/status/1574876954364297216

Not that I've seen or heard, no. Which is a huge mistake. Talking about the republicans forcing a 10 y/o rape victim to have to leave the state to have an abortion should be a no-brainer. He should be absolutely crucifying Vance over that.

I actually disagree; running heavily on abortion would be a major blunder in Ryan’s case and probably kill any chance he has of pulling off the upset.  Ryan’s biggest problem is that undecideds in Ohio statewide races are overwhelmingly, albeit not exclusively, Republicans who don’t like or are otherwise unenthusiastic about Vance. 

Where these folks seem to be at imo is that 1 They don’t really mind Ryan himself and if anything have a lowkey favorable opinion of him; 2 They still hate Biden/the national Democratic Party’s guts and are reluctant to vote for Ryan almost entirely b/c he is a Democrat; 3 They really don’t like Vance and probably wouldn’t vote for him (or would at least skip the race) if the election were today, but are still looking for an excuse to vote for Vance since he’s the Republican; and 4 they’re like meerkats looking for the slightest sign Tim Ryan’s “I’m not like other Democrats” schtick is a load of BS.

If Ryan runs hard on abortion, then that’s these folks excuse to vote Vance.  “Sure Vance sucks, but it’s not about him.  It’s about protecting the sanctity of life and stopping Tim Ryan from letting Planned Parenthood go back to murdering millions of unborn babies” becomes an easy rationalization for such voters to support Vance. 

At this point, either Ryan has the level of support he needs from Democrats, independents, Never Trump folks still in denial about the Republican party, and any pro-choice Republicans floating around in the suburbs or he doesn’t.  If he doesn’t, then none of this matters anyway.  If he does, that’s still not quite enough even in a perfect storm. 

He also needs to get enough of the type of undecided voter I described.  And that means being 100% beyond reproach in every way for them so they have no rationalization available for holding their nose and towing the party line.  Then, maybe Ryan gets just enough to eek out a narrow win if everything goes perfectly with GOTV and enough undecided Republicans sit out the race or buy into Ryan’s schtick. 

How can undecided votes mostly be pro-life Republicans if only 32% of Ohio voters oppose Roe v. Wade?

[wbrocks67]

??

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1577049773819191296

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1577018237354639370

That’s because Thiel knows Ohio is safe lol.

[Unelectable Bystander]

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1577018237354639370

That’s because Thiel knows Ohio is safe lol.

That’s actually what Ryan’s announcement is about. He’s confirming that Vance is conceding because Ryan is so far ahead.

[wbrocks67]

the announcement in question... lmao

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1577289794245345317

[Pres Mike]

Does Ryan have any chance?

[wbrocks67]

Does Ryan have any chance?

We haven't gotten any recent polling really but the one we did (last week I think?) had Ryan +3.

Ryan has a shot; Vance should've been able to put this away by now.