OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

Vance is “from Ohio” the same way Hillary is “from Arkansas”

lmao.. such a false and nonsensical equivalence.

Hillary was born and raised in a Chicago suburb.

Vance was born in Middletown, and lived there until he left to join the military.. he's a Ohioan.

Vance fled Ohio for the Silicon Valley the instant he got the sliver of an opportunity to do so and didn’t look back until he decided to try and carpetbag his way back here to run for Senate.  He’s about as much of an Ohioan as Jim Harbaugh.

He literally joined the military before he went to silicon valley..?

I get it.. democrats hate upward mobility, especially amongst the WWC but maybe go beyond the veneer of hackery for once.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/adamwren/status/1555959508937080834

[SnowLabrador]

I don't buy that this is truly competitive. It's going to be a redux of KS-SEN 2020.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I don't buy that this is truly competitive. It's going to be a redux of KS-SEN 2020.

Of course you don't.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't buy that this is truly competitive. It's going to be a redux of KS-SEN 2020.

You will believe when Ryan wins SEN ELECT RYAN

We are gonna all find out in 90 day's soon enough Rs don't own any state, no party owns any State

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't buy that this is truly competitive. It's going to be a redux of KS-SEN 2020.

Of course you don't.

We should buy ads having him tell all Republican voters and donors that Vance already has it in the bag, so they don't need to be concerned about it!

[Spectator]

Stupid line of attack to go after someone for leaving a state when it was because they joined the military.

[Yoda]

Olowakandi,
Sabato has OH-SEN still as Likely Republican.

Ryan has been on the Airwaves in OH nonstop.

This Race will change dramatically into Vance favour after the Summer.

Ohioans do not care about Abortion, etc. They care about the Economy, Jobs, etc. and those are set to worsen in the coming months. Ryan has been voting 99.8 % of the time with the Socialist Biden Agenda.

And that Bill that just passed Congress via Reconciliation won't sit well with Ohio Voters.

New Polling shows a Plurality of Voters nationally think it will worsen the Inflation. The US will go into Recession early 2023.

Please do no make such grandiose, ignorant statements. This could not be further from the truth. You obviously do not live in Ohio b/c you have no clue how Dobbs and the 10 year old being forced to leave the state for an abortion have played here.  I'll give you a clue - not well. Also what is your source/data that Ohioans oppose the latest reconciliation bill?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sabato rankings are terrible he has WI Sen as Lean R I don't look at Rankings anymore they're hawkish how do all the pollsters except Cook have WI Sen as Lean R

We will find out in 90 day's I don't make exact prediction, I put it on my map and Ryan is leading in every poll and there is no poll that have Johnson ahead the last poll had him down 46)44

Progressive Moderate has had that same R nut map and every poll has NV, AZ, GA, PA leads for D's, no one calls users out for make R  nut maps if he can go against ratings, I can to, Progressive Moderate is wrong if he thinks Rs are gonna win 54 Seats, most pollster have it 52/48 D

Just remember AK, FL, IN, and NC were all likely R and Obama and Biden won them in 2008 and made them all Likely R and they went D these aren't Exit polls these are pre Election polls and if Ryan wins I can't update my map on EDay

Progressive Moderate is like 15 or 20 and doesn't need Social Security or Medicare or Medicare Advantage when you get close to 50 you need expanded medical expenses and Rs are against Entitlement, that's why so many R users or Discord POLLSTER are very young and over 30 pollster are Ds

pbower2A and Mr Modern are like 47 yrs old and are Ds because we all need as we approach 50 expand Medicare Dental Benefits

I was more conservative when I was 20 I never thought I would get old and need Medicine, Rs tried to repeal Obamacare

Since we are living past 65 most of our adult life is gonna be Senior citizens and you qualify for AARP at 50, only a third of our life is gonna be spent young, my relatives live a long time the only ones that died early had terminal illness, I don't have one, a terminal illness

[UWS]

Stupid line of attack to go after someone for leaving a state when it was because they joined the military.

Meanwhile at the very same time Vance fought to defend freedom through his service in the military, Ryan voted time and time again to weaken our military and to put America in throes of terrorism as he voted with John Edwards and John Kerry against the $87 billion aimed at supporting American troops in Afghanistan and Iraq and thus voted to abandon the troops and to deny them body armor, spare parts, ammunition, fuel, armored vehicles, extra-pay for hardship duty and support for military families and to deny them the tools needed to rebuild Afghanistan and Iraq. And at that same period of time he voted against adopting the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission in 2004 despite the threat represented by extremist Islamic terrorism, which is a term Ryan and all of his fellow Dems have always been afraid to use in a fear of being politically incorrect.

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/7555/21027/45638/emergency-supplemental-appropriations-act-for-defense#21027

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/3156/7892/45638/911-recommendations-implementation-act#7892

Then he voted in favor of closing Guantanamo Bay and of transferring Guantanamo terrorists to the U.S. soil, supported the Iran nuclear deal that handed billions of dollars to the world's largest state-sponsor of global terrorism and he voted against the Justice for Victims of Iranian Terrorism Act that prohibits sanctions on Iran from being lifted until Iran pays court-ruled fines for judgments related to terrorism.

http://www.cq.com/doc/floorvote-240077000?0&search=PLpqV2VD

https://justfacts.votesmart.org/bill/20470/54004/45638/justice-for-victims-of-iranian-terrorism-act#54004

And more recently, despite the threat represented by Russia in Eastern Europe and in the Arctic and despite growing tensions between China and Taiwan, Ryan voted to cut funding for our troops as he voted against a motion that would have increased funds for Air Force Air-launched Rapid Response program

https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AP/AP00/20220622/114945/HMKP-117-AP00-20220622-SD010.pdf

That's why it is dangerous to have Congressman Ryan as Senator and the right course to keep America safe is to elect JD Vance for a safer America through a stronger military and strong homeland security. What JD Vance did in the military, he will do in the US Senate.

[Schiff for Senate]

Vance is a fake Appalachian, not a fake Ohioan.

Agreed 100%. The way he pretends he's from Breathitt County is just lame. He's legitimately from OH though.

[Schiff for Senate]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

You're so gullible. You're playing right into the hands of a multibillionaire, Peter Thiel. You think you're supporting some populist who cares about you? Really? Yeah, sure, J.D. Vance is genuinely an Ohioan. But he's also a wealthy venture capitalist. And when he's elected, see what he does for the working class. Spoiler alert: NOTHING. He'll vote for tax cuts like the 2017 one for the ultra-rich. When it comes to healthcare for the poor (including the miners), when it comes to Medicaid and Social Security, when it comes to food stamps, when it comes to infrastructure, he will deliver ZERO to the working classes of OH or WV or any part of the country. I'll tell you something: you need to decide what matters more - culture wars like those over LGBT+ rights and abortion, or economic, bread-and-butter issues, issues of healthcare and taxes. In other words, do you prioritise wedge issues the top 1% creates to divide the bottom 99%, to divert their attention, to keep them fighting amongst each other, and to let their common enemy, the ultra-rich, get away; or issues that would help the 99% rise up against the 1% just slightly, that would lessen the massive, yawning wealth gap that has expanded massively? Do you want a senator who will support the unemployed and the poor (including the miners you claim to support in your signature), or one who just votes for tax cuts for the donor class, for the 1%, for literal multibillionaires like Thiel? J.D. Vance may be Ohioan. But he is NOT populist and he is BY NO MEANS for the working class. He is for the ultra-ultra-rich. Is that the man you really want to support? In that case, you're both pathetic and gullible (though your endorsements in your signature told me that quite clearly already).

[Schiff for Senate]

Stupid line of attack to go after someone for leaving a state when it was because they joined the military.

Agreed.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

You're so gullible. You're playing right into the hands of a multibillionaire, Peter Thiel. You think you're supporting some populist who cares about you? Really? Yeah, sure, J.D. Vance is genuinely an Ohioan. But he's also a wealthy venture capitalist. And when he's elected, see what he does for the working class. Spoiler alert: NOTHING. He'll vote for tax cuts like the 2017 one for the ultra-rich. When it comes to healthcare for the poor (including the miners), when it comes to Medicaid and Social Security, when it comes to food stamps, when it comes to infrastructure, he will deliver ZERO to the working classes of OH or WV or any part of the country. I'll tell you something: you need to decide what matters more - culture wars like those over LGBT+ rights and abortion, or economic, bread-and-butter issues, issues of healthcare and taxes. In other words, do you prioritise wedge issues the top 1% creates to divide the bottom 99%, to divert their attention, to keep them fighting amongst each other, and to let their common enemy, the ultra-rich, get away; or issues that would help the 99% rise up against the 1% just slightly, that would lessen the massive, yawning wealth gap that has expanded massively? Do you want a senator who will support the unemployed and the poor (including the miners you claim to support in your signature), or one who just votes for tax cuts for the donor class, for the 1%, for literal multibillionaires like Thiel? J.D. Vance may be Ohioan. But he is NOT populist and he is BY NO MEANS for the working class. He is for the ultra-ultra-rich. Is that the man you really want to support? In that case, you're both pathetic and gullible (though your endorsements in your signature told me that quite clearly already).

I won't support a unashamed social liberal in Tim Ryan.

Sure if he expressed some independence on social issues I would consider it.. but no, over his tenure in congress he's become increasingly a party line voter.

Vance's wealth doesn't particularly matter.. upwards mobility is to be applauded and J.D has come from WWC roots.

[Horus]

Stupid line of attack to go after someone for leaving a state when it was because they joined the military.

Jingoistic crap from 2003

Silence neocon.

[S019]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

[MT Treasurer]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

The fact that this race is "being seriously discussed" has little to do with the fundamentals of OH or any dramatic change in the national environment and everything with JD Vance being an absolute joke of a candidate who can barely be bothered to campaign. This race tells us nothing about WI.

[S019]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

The fact that this race is "being seriously discussed" has little to do with the underlying fundamentals of OH or any dramatic change in the national environment and everything with JD Vance being an absolute joke of a candidate who can barely be bothered to campaign. This race tells us nothing about WI.

I never said they’d lose it, it’s just that I have a hard time believing Ohio will swing 5-6 points from 2020, which many people seem to genuinely believe and that Wisconsin+Pennsylvania swing right at the same time. Anyways I still have Johnson favored in WI and think Oz stands a very good chance of winning PA, even if he’d probably narrowly lose it unless his campaign improves. Also at this current moment, there is clearly a swing towards Democrats, which may be temporary and may fade by November, but I just refuse to believe “candidate quality” can actually come close to reversing an 8 point margin, especially when even currently rosy GCB polling shows a 3 pt shift rightwards from 2020 (in terms of House margin) and a 4.5 pt shift in terms of presidential margin. Vance is an awful candidate, yes, but he should still win by at least 5 unless something has gone horribly wrong.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

The fact that this race is "being seriously discussed" has little to do with the underlying fundamentals of OH or any dramatic change in the national environment and everything with JD Vance being an absolute joke of a candidate who can barely be bothered to campaign. This race tells us nothing about WI.

I never said they’d lose it, it’s just that I have a hard time believing Ohio will swing 5-6 points from 2020, which many people seem to genuinely believe and that Wisconsin+Pennsylvania swing right at the same time. Anyways I still have Johnson favored in WI and think Oz stands a very good chance of winning PA, even if he’d probably narrowly lose it unless his campaign improves. Also at this current moment, there is clearly a swing towards Democrats, which may be temporary and may fade by November, but I just refuse to believe “candidate quality” can actually come close to reversing an 8 point margin, especially when even currently rosy GCB polling shows a 3 pt shift rightwards from 2020 (in terms of House margin) and a 4.5 pt shift in terms of presidential margin. Vance is an awful candidate, yes, but he should still win by at least 5 unless something has gone horribly wrong.

Yah Vance certainly could have lost it in a Trump 6 year itch but I just cannot see a scenario where he loses in a Biden midterm. Vance losing would be like if the Democrats lost VA Senate in 2018(If say Kaine retired or something).

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

The fact that this race is "being seriously discussed" has little to do with the underlying fundamentals of OH or any dramatic change in the national environment and everything with JD Vance being an absolute joke of a candidate who can barely be bothered to campaign. This race tells us nothing about WI.

I never said they’d lose it, it’s just that I have a hard time believing Ohio will swing 5-6 points from 2020, which many people seem to genuinely believe and that Wisconsin+Pennsylvania swing right at the same time. Anyways I still have Johnson favored in WI and think Oz stands a very good chance of winning PA, even if he’d probably narrowly lose it unless his campaign improves. Also at this current moment, there is clearly a swing towards Democrats, which may be temporary and may fade by November, but I just refuse to believe “candidate quality” can actually come close to reversing an 8 point margin, especially when even currently rosy GCB polling shows a 3 pt shift rightwards from 2020 (in terms of House margin) and a 4.5 pt shift in terms of presidential margin. Vance is an awful candidate, yes, but he should still win by at least 5 unless something has gone horribly wrong.

Yah Vance certainly could have lost it in a Trump 6 year itch but I just cannot see a scenario where he loses in a Biden midterm. Vance losing would be like if the Democrats lost VA Senate in 2018(If say Kaine retired or something).

Yep. People have to differentiate from terrible candidates- like Bob Menendez- and people like Roy Moore. I actually think Menendez is the best comparison- an unpopular candidate with lots of money who underperforms the expected margin but the national environment pulls him over the finish line.

[Schiff for Senate]

Tim Ryan borrowing from the Fetterman playbook a bit

https://twitter.com/TimRyan/status/1554917093119770624

Given Tim Ryan is a career politician.. I'm not sure who is more out of touch.

Fetterman has some credence attacking Oz, given he's a carpetbagger who's wife has more connection to PA..

Vance is just a Ohioan who's career resulted in him moving to another state.

You're so gullible. You're playing right into the hands of a multibillionaire, Peter Thiel. You think you're supporting some populist who cares about you? Really? Yeah, sure, J.D. Vance is genuinely an Ohioan. But he's also a wealthy venture capitalist. And when he's elected, see what he does for the working class. Spoiler alert: NOTHING. He'll vote for tax cuts like the 2017 one for the ultra-rich. When it comes to healthcare for the poor (including the miners), when it comes to Medicaid and Social Security, when it comes to food stamps, when it comes to infrastructure, he will deliver ZERO to the working classes of OH or WV or any part of the country. I'll tell you something: you need to decide what matters more - culture wars like those over LGBT+ rights and abortion, or economic, bread-and-butter issues, issues of healthcare and taxes. In other words, do you prioritise wedge issues the top 1% creates to divide the bottom 99%, to divert their attention, to keep them fighting amongst each other, and to let their common enemy, the ultra-rich, get away; or issues that would help the 99% rise up against the 1% just slightly, that would lessen the massive, yawning wealth gap that has expanded massively? Do you want a senator who will support the unemployed and the poor (including the miners you claim to support in your signature), or one who just votes for tax cuts for the donor class, for the 1%, for literal multibillionaires like Thiel? J.D. Vance may be Ohioan. But he is NOT populist and he is BY NO MEANS for the working class. He is for the ultra-ultra-rich. Is that the man you really want to support? In that case, you're both pathetic and gullible (though your endorsements in your signature told me that quite clearly already).

I won't support a unashamed social liberal in Tim Ryan.

Sure if he expressed some independence on social issues I would consider it.. but no, over his tenure in congress he's become increasingly a party line voter.

Vance's wealth doesn't particularly matter.. upwards mobility is to be applauded and J.D has come from WWC roots.

Regarding the first two paragraphs: Okay, so you prioritise social issues (and culture war wedge issues) over bread-and-butter economic issues. Fair enough. I understand that.

Regarding the third paragraph: I agree with you, but that's not what I was saying to begin with. Vance's wealth and upward mobility are not bad things by any means (and yes, they absolutely should be applauded - he is a self-made man who made his wealth through hard work and perseverance). What IS a bad thing is his economic views. He is being funded by a multibillionaire, and in office, his 'populist' WWC rhetoric aside, he will vote to give those making millions of dollars a year tax breaks (don't be fooled - when he says tax cuts, he's not talking about tax cuts for the middle class, he's talking about tax cuts for the 1%). When it comes to Medicaid or unemployment benefits or 'supporting the minors' or funding schools, he will reject all of that in favour of, you guessed it, tax cuts for the rich. Trump's 2017 tax cuts - what did they do? They were a giveaway to the ultra-rich, to the donor class who fund the GOP. They were not meant to, and they did not, help the middle- or lower-classes. I'm hardly opposed to tax cuts that are genuinely for the middle class. What I oppose, however, is more tax breaks for the top 1% and the ultra-rich. Warren Buffet is a multibillionaire and he has said multiple times that, crazy as it is, he pays a lower tax rate than his employees because of loopholes and whatnot. Donald Trump doesn't pay any income tax, while working-class people working 9-to-5 jobs and overtime to put food on the table do. The top 1% of earners have 32.3% of national wealth, whereas the bottom 90% own just 30.5% - yes, you got that right: the top 1% are richer than the bottom 90%! I don't think any of those facts is reasonable, in fact, I consider them outrageous -  and I would think you wouldn't, either. The fact that you're choosing a few culture war wedge issues demonstrates to me that the 1%'s strategy of using culture wars to distract and divide the 99% has succeeded to some extent. You can still realise that the enemy is not women who have abortions or LGBT+ people, but the 1% that are taking advantage of the bottom 99%, the multibillionaires like Thiel who control government through their $$$.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/karenkasler/status/1558485440231088128

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Vance, being a 19th century Tory sitting in his club at heart, is campaigning like Ohio is a rotten borough, except it actually isn't, he has a weirdly strong Lib-Lab opponent, and at least for now, his camp keeps stepping on rakes while the government belatedly kind of gets its sh!t together. Is that going to be enough? Still safer to say 'probably not', but everyone on this forum should hope it is enough. It would be healthiest for all your souls if you were all forced to confront the fact that people and places are weird and complex and certainly not reducible to a few numbers and demographic attributes the Grand, Sweeping Narrative of the Time of Trump has fed you.

[Devout Centrist]

Stupid line of attack to go after someone for leaving a state when it was because they joined the military.

He left the state to serve in the Marines, then went to college in Ohio, then left the state *again* to go to Yale Law and eventually find work at a venture capital firm in San Francisco; after all that, he wrote a book decrying the culture of Appalachia and made comments encouraging people to leave the state - there’s plenty of latitude for Ryan to go on the attack here.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that Thiel has yet to spend anything for Vance in the general.

https://twitter.com/JoshKraushaar/status/1559484697540976640