OH-Sen 2022: So you’re telling me there’s a chance

[S019]

!!!!!! Awesome.

https://twitter.com/lizmwalters/status/1353785683371028482

Hopefully people aren't dumb enough to actually believe this

Ahem...

https://www.foxnews.com/sports/lebron-james-us-senate-calls-ramp-up-portman-decision

Yes I know it's Fox News but still, would be an interesting primary if LeBron ends up running. He's arguably the most popular current NBA star at the moment.

Realistically though I think it's probably gonna be Jim Jordan vs Tim Ryan in the general.

LeBron wouldn't win either, the racists in Appalachia and the rurals would not vote for a black man from Cleveland

[S019]

LeBron wouldn't win either, the racists in Appalachia and the rurals would not vote for a black man from Cleveland

Ehhhh, lots of racist whites worship black athletes (as long as they don't speak out on racial justice issues a la Kaepernick).

The issue is LeBron is known for speaking out in favor of progressive causes, though

[S019]

I know it sounds stupid & I'm not someone who thinks the final race will be close but it's always good to have Senate seats that are easier to win in the event of something insane happening either state wide (see George Allen 2006 etc) or a national environment lifting up people who had no hope at the start of the cycle (see Mark Kirk 2010)

I'd agree with this take if this was a Trump second midterm, given it's a Biden midterm, I see it being more likely that Republicans end up putting CO or something in play than Democrats putting this seat in play.

[S019]

Still Titanium R.

Calling this race "titanium R" is a complete misuse of the term. It's likely R.

I mean, if it's something like Tim Ryan vs. Jim Jordan, it's barely Lean R. Ohio is not that gone for democrats, everyone needs to calm their tits.

It's a Biden midterm though, I'd agree with you if it was a Trump 6th year itch.

[S019]

Mandel will win this if he's the nominee, yawn, still Safe R

[S019]

Frankly, given it's Ohio, I don't care who runs as long as they don't suck money away from actually competitive races like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin, unfortunately Dore is not only a bad candidate, but his online presence means he likely would be someone to suck money away. Honestly the best choice here is some random former state legislator or someone like that.

[S019]

I like Amy Action, she is beginning to sound like Senator to me and we will see what happens in NC, all of these states sound good to me

You are going to be very disappointed in November 2022, OH is gone and NC is a very uphill battle in a Democratic President's midterm.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1379059064680894468?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7...

It would seem as though Republicans have the momentum for 2022. Of course, that's to be expected.

Why does Snowlabrador support Rs, Pelosi, Schumer and Back Dem gave you 2K Stimulus, the only reason why OH was so R in the 2010s was Boehner, You saw the polls Mandel and Rs are having trouble to either Acton or Ryan

Pelosi just gave you 2K the Rs wanted 1K and Johnson objected earlier

Oh sure I agree that Acton or Ryan will get 40-42% of the vote, I guess you could say the polls are right in that case. But SnowLabrador is anticipating the almost certain scenario that the undecideds will break almost entirely Republican. Also the 2K will mean absolutely nothing in November 2022 when the election takes place there will be new salient issues at play, anyways this race is Safe R.

[S019]

This seat is much more likely to flip than D's winning NC or FL since Cheri Beasley is gonna win the Primary in NC not JACKSON

Lolololololololololololololololololololololol


Imagine being so delusional that you actually have faith in Ohio still lol. The Republicans will win this by like 15, and then everyone will pretend that they saw it coming.

[S019]

This seat is much more likely to flip than D's winning NC or FL since Cheri Beasley is gonna win the Primary in NC not JACKSON

Lolololololololololololololololololololololol


Imagine being so delusional that you actually have faith in Ohio still lol. The Republicans will win this by like 15, and then everyone will pretend that they saw it coming.

S019 doesn't believe in blue waves, the reason why we didn't have one in 2020 AK,, KS, MT and TX were in the oil industry

WI, PA, NH, OH, IA don't have oil

Lol, explain ME and NC then.

[S019]

https://twitter.com/henryjgomez/status/1395761123463421959
Dolan currently serves as a State Senator in the Cleveland suburbs, having won re-election by 9% as Biden carried his district by 6%. Dolan’s well-positioned to be the only moderate in a crowded race full of MAGA chuds. While that probably isn’t enough to pull off a win, it helps that his family are literal billionaires. He has a capacity to self-fund that neither Timken nor even Vance has.

Mandel, Timkin, and Vance is a pretty divided Trumpist field.  I’d say if at least one of Davidson, Johnson, or maybe even Mike Turner (for geographic politics reasons, especially if he runs a Trumpy campaign) jumps in too and Joyce stays out then he has a very real shot.

Mike Turner has a pretty moderate reputation, so I think he'd actually take that lane, agreed on the other two.

[S019]

Tim Ryan has to be the Favorite here even if Renacci wins the Gov Race, this will give D's 53 seats enough to beak Filibuster, this is a must win for us

OH did split its votes in 2018, in a D 9 Election and we are ahead by 9 on Generic ballot, for Brown and Moderate DeWine

In addition OH hasn't Elected a female SEN or GOV and Sutton ran for Lt Gov and lost Whaley won't win

PA hasn't Elected a female SEN or GOV either and Hillary did exceptionally poorly in both states and that's why Strickland lost by 20 instead of 10 pts

I take PPP at it's word showing Ryan competetive

Tim Ryan has no chance, it's Safe R

[S019]

Trump 2016 got more votes than Biden 2020.

Democrats have absolutely zero shot here, which sucks since Tim Ryan is great. Josh Mandel is going to be an awful Senator.

I'm personally rooting for Dolan to win the primary, he seems like he'd be a Portman-style candidate, which is just about the best, we, as Democrats, can hope for in Ohio, nowadays.

[S019]

I just find it hilarious that Mandel spews TPUSA style cringe all day everyday, yet TPUSA endorsed JD Vance (which is a rare based moment from them).

On the other hand, you got Wendy Rogers, who supports auditing Oklahoma, endorsing Mandel (I guess because she thinks Vance is a "RINO" for voting for McMullin instead of Trump in 2016).
https://twitter.com/WendyRogersAZ/status/1439763577779494914?s=20

She's still relevant? I thought she was done after her 2018 loss to O'Halleran.

[S019]

Trump 2016 got more votes than Biden 2020.

Democrats have absolutely zero shot here, which sucks since Tim Ryan is great. Josh Mandel is going to be an awful Senator.

What, Sherrod Brown flipped the state in 2018/ against Renacci after Trump won in 2016/ Tim Ryan is tied in a poll

Of course, he won by a much narrower margin than expected and the national GOP triaged the race

I will continue to donate and when I get my user Predictions I will put OH in the D column as well as NC and FL

You're not a clown, you're the entire circus

If Beshear won in R KY and Laura Kelly won in0R KS we have a shot in zoH when Brown after Trump won OH won the state in 2016

Gubernatorial race =/= federal and both of those faced flawed opponents in years where turnout benefitted them

That's your Prediction, not mine

Good story

[S019]

People should stop saying OH is unwinnable, OH sn't IA, IA gas 3% Afro Americans and Grassley isn't winning by 20/10pts and the state split it votes between M DeWine and Brown in 2018/ and Ryan is tied and DeWine is winning by 10 again

State has 12% Afro American

Will you eat crow when Mandel or Vance wins by 15?

[S019]

It's not going to matter, there is no way Republicans lose this seat even in a neutral year, let alone a GOP leaning one.

If this was a 6th year itch , Ryan probably would have had a chance of a huge upset here given not only Vance but how atrocious the entire primary field was here . Though Portman may not have retired in that case in which case it would still be Safe R

Given how far right Ohio has drifted, it's possible Republicans would still be favored in a GOP midterm, and even if Ryan were to pull it off, it'd be an obvious rental.

[S019]

If this was a 6th year itch , Ryan probably would have had a chance of a huge upset here given not only Vance but how atrocious the entire primary field was here . Though Portman may not have retired in that case in which case it would still be Safe R

Given how far right Ohio has drifted, it's possible Republicans would still be favored in a GOP midterm, and even if Ryan were to pull it off, it'd be an obvious rental.

Oh absolutely but it could be the GOP's version of 2014 CO in this case . With Mandel it could have been even a repeat of 2012 MO in that case

It would have never been a repeat of 2012 Missouri, also in 2014 in Colorado, it was still considered a swing state, Ohio is not really a swing state anymore.

It's not going to matter, there is no way Republicans lose this seat even in a neutral year, let alone a GOP leaning one.

If this was a 6th year itch , Ryan probably would have had a chance of a huge upset here given not only Vance but how atrocious the entire primary field was here . Though Portman may not have retired in that case in which case it would still be Safe R

Given how far right Ohio has drifted, it's possible Republicans would still be favored in a GOP midterm, and even if Ryan were to pull it off, it'd be an obvious rental.

Yeah OH drifted so right Sherrod Brown won in 2018 after Portman won by 2016 we are still waiting for OH, WI and PA polls they keep pulling Latino States .

It's called Afo Americans, Muslim and Female votes

Brown was very lucky to face an awful opponent, he is almost certainly going down in 2024, and there's a good chance he goes down by double digits.

[S019]

Still very unlikely that Ryan wins, but at least he won't get completely blown out like Strickland did:
https://twitter.com/bridgetbhc/status/1545393779821232129?cxt=HHwWgoC-xY7dq_IqAA...

Ill gladly introduce you to this cycles' Amy McGrath.

Mitch McConnell, despite his horrific approval ratings, is running in a state that is far more Republican than Ohio.

So Ryan will lose by 12 instead of 20

[S019]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

[S019]

I get IA/KS 2020 vibes from this race, but the fact that it’s even being seriously discussed does not bode particularly well for GOP prospects in places like WI and PA.

The fact that this race is "being seriously discussed" has little to do with the underlying fundamentals of OH or any dramatic change in the national environment and everything with JD Vance being an absolute joke of a candidate who can barely be bothered to campaign. This race tells us nothing about WI.

I never said they’d lose it, it’s just that I have a hard time believing Ohio will swing 5-6 points from 2020, which many people seem to genuinely believe and that Wisconsin+Pennsylvania swing right at the same time. Anyways I still have Johnson favored in WI and think Oz stands a very good chance of winning PA, even if he’d probably narrowly lose it unless his campaign improves. Also at this current moment, there is clearly a swing towards Democrats, which may be temporary and may fade by November, but I just refuse to believe “candidate quality” can actually come close to reversing an 8 point margin, especially when even currently rosy GCB polling shows a 3 pt shift rightwards from 2020 (in terms of House margin) and a 4.5 pt shift in terms of presidential margin. Vance is an awful candidate, yes, but he should still win by at least 5 unless something has gone horribly wrong.

[S019]

Buried in this WaPo article about the NRSC - Vance's internal polling is worse than public polling showing Ryan ahead.

Several public polls recently showed Ryan leading, and internal Republican surveys found Vance with an even bigger deficit, according to people familiar with the findings.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/08/19/gop-senate-rescue-midterms/

After reporting on leaked internals in 2020, I'm very cautious to read much into this, but it's very clear that just letting Ryan define himself to the voters (including ads like the Fox one where he basically shows Fox calling him a centrist) while Vance did nothing was a very risky strategy and the GOP wanted to take no chances, which explains their massive ad buy. However, the Republicans basically somehow burning $150 million (that WaPo article said they started at like $170 million and are now at $20 million) may make this type of "big ad buy at once" strategy tricky in other states (I don't doubt McConnell has tons of money, but buying $30 million ad buys also in PA, FL, AZ, GA, etc. would add up pretty quickly and they'd probably need even higher saturation in PA/AZ/GA).

[S019]

This is KS-SEN 2020 all over again. People thought Barbara Bollier could defeat Roger Marshall, and she lost by over 11 points. Safe R.

Oh, I agree and Democrats would be very stupid to spend here, but Republicans being forced to divert money here when they're already facing cash problems is absolutely a good development.

[S019]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

Trump won Ohio by a large margin in 2016 too. Anyways, I think this is Safe R at this point, Vance has started leading polls and as everyone else has said Ryan has a very steep battle and basically everyone needs to go right for him and even then it isn't enough. Sure it's technically possible in the way that say Iowa is, but it's not within the range of realistic possibilities.

[S019]

I have this race as Likely R, but there’s one contradiction I haven’t seen people to address.

We know Brown won his re-election by a sizable margin, if less than the big leads he was showing in polls. But if you bring that up as a template for Ryan, you hear that Brown is an established incumbent first elected at a time when Ohio was more competitive, and doesn’t represent today’s partisanship.

Ok. Fair enough. But if Ohio is uncompetitive because Trump won by a wide 8 points in 2020… isn’t Trump’s incumbency a factor in the size of his win, too? Or does incumbency only help Democrats in Ohio?

Trump won Ohio by a large margin in 2016 too. Anyways, I think this is Safe R at this point, Vance has started leading polls and as everyone else has said Ryan has a very steep battle and basically everyone needs to go right for him and even then it isn't enough. Sure it's technically possible in the way that say Iowa is, but it's not within the range of realistic possibilities.

No, Ryan winning is definitely within the range of realistic possibilities; it’s just unlikely.  The better comparison would be Trump’s chances of winning the day before Election Day 2016.  It can still happen, but there is only about a ~20% chance Ryan wins at this point.  That’s still a 1/5 chance, but it’s far more likely Vance narrowly wins.  

Respectfully, comparing this race to the one in Iowa doesn’t even make sense.  In Iowa, there is a longtime, popular Republican incumbent facing an unremarkable, underfunded some dude sacrificial lamb who sexually assaulted a member of his campaign staff in a race no one ever argued was even remotely competitive.  That’s an extremely apples and oranges comparison, regardless of what result you’re expecting.

In 2018, a year that was a massive blue wave, Democrats lost every row office except for the one that they had an incumbent in. Given how that year played out, I'm pretty certain Brown would've lost had he run in an open seat. Even in 2020, which was a D leaning year, Democrats did awfully in Ohio. Ohio polls have also been garbage for three straight cycles. There is no universe where Johnson wins by 3-4 and Ohio is within 5. I feel like everyone is setting themselves up for disappointment yet again.

S019 is an Atlas zoomer #trends-bro who thinks that elections are predetermined on the quantum level in ways that would move the Democratic Party to the right (to benefit his class interests) and not to be taken seriously.

All I'm saying is be prepared to be disappointed if what has happened for the past 3 cycles happens for a fourth consecutive one. In any case, if Democrats are even somewhat close here, they've almost certainly expanded their House majority.