Special Election megathread (5/21: CA-20)

[Brittain33]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

[Brittain33]

Ok, she’s over 50 now, I can go to bed.

[Senator Incitatus]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

As some have pointed out elsewhere, there's no reason a low turnout race should favor Republicans in an area that is has deep Democratic roots. That higher turnout demographics (older voters who have shown up in the past) are not voting Democratic (either abstaining or flipping) is terrible news and compounded by the fact that Republicans are either motivating Democrats to vote for them or getting brand-new Republicans to show up.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling it for Flores.

This is embarrassing. Can't bode well for November.

[Brittain33]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

As some have pointed out elsewhere, there's no reason a low turnout race should favor Republicans in an area that is has deep Democratic roots.

No, but it’s how Republicans won the same territory in 2010 when Blake Farenthold was the Republican candidate.

What it means is that 15,000 people showing up to vote Republican doesn’t really work as evidence that 100,000 formerly Dem voters are changing their minds and now voting Republican.

It’s much better evidence that a lot of Dem voters don’t care to vote Dem right now at the same time that some people shifted R before 2020. Which is a problem for Democrats, but it’s not Alabama in the 1990s.

[Senator Incitatus]

This thing appears to be well over, but here's another update. Will be interested to see if Flores can actually hold onto her slim Cameron County lead; that would have to be historic (and consistent with VA/NJ R+13 national swing).

Update (bold margins final):

County	2020 Margin	2022 Margin	Swing
Willacy	D+30	R+2	R+32
Hidalgo	D+26	D+9	R+17
Cameron	D+26	R+0.1	—
Kenedy	D+8	D+7	R+1
Kleberg	D+1.5	R+20	—
Jim Wells	R+3	R+7	—
San Patricio	R+4	R+13	R+9
Bee	R+24.5	R+54	R+29.5
Goliad	R+54	R+64	R+10
Gonzales	R+60	R+72	R+12
De Witt	R+64	R+71	R+7

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1536896640803647493?s=21&t=pjXJQDoRzYm...

[Brittain33]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

[Senator Incitatus]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I'm sure I don't need to explain to you how leading indicators work and the difference between presidential and downballot races.

Ok, she’s over 50 now, I can go to bed.

Sleep well!

[Brittain33]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I'm sure I don't need to explain to you how leading indicators work and the difference between presidential and downballot races.

Yes, indeed. But what’s the case for why Vela’s performance is more meaningful for a shift than Biden’s when projecting nationally? Most seats are re-elections, not open seats after long-time incumbents retire. Projecting based on an incumbent-to-open-seat swing is not going to give us a “national environment.”

Please do make the argument that a 4 point swing to a Republican from Trump’s numbers shows a R+13 environment.

[2016]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

Yes but at the same time other exurbs in Texas are growing and have become what Collin used to be (Parker County for example ).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

Tunout in the Hidlago portion was just 4% rip.

[2016]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

The new TX-34 is a Biden +15 District so I think it's a tough District to hold for Flores. Not saying she is completely out of it but it is very tough. The other two (TX-15 & TX-28) I have as Lean Republican given the current Politcal Environment & Bidens extraordinary bad border policy.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

The new TX-34 is a Biden +15 District so I think it's a tough District to hold for Flores. Not saying she is completely out of it but it is very tough. The other two (TX-15 & TX-28) I have as Lean Republican given the current Politcal Environment & Bidens extraordinary bad border policy.

TX-15 is def more likely to flip than TX-28 but ye this is a fair analysis.

I almost wonder if the gop regrets not keeping the old RGV config where they would have a good shot at all 3 seats rather than making 15 and 28 bluer.

One interesting district will be TX-23 cause it’s a battle of rural border Hispanics and diversifying suburbs.

[2016]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

The new TX-34 is a Biden +15 District so I think it's a tough District to hold for Flores. Not saying she is completely out of it but it is very tough. The other two (TX-15 & TX-28) I have as Lean Republican given the current Politcal Environment & Bidens extraordinary bad border policy.

TX-15 is def more likely to flip than TX-28 but ye this is a fair analysis.

I almost wonder if the gop regrets not keeping the old RGV config where they would have a good shot at all 3 seats rather than making 15 and 28 bluer.

One interesting district will be TX-23 cause it’s a battle of rural border Hispanics and diversifying suburbs.

There are National Polls out that have Democrats leading Republicans among Hispanics BUT only by single Digits. Some Polls have both Parties even tied among Hispanics nationally.

If this comes to pass in November GOP will pick up or do very well in a lot of Hispanic Districts around the Country.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

The new TX-34 is a Biden +15 District so I think it's a tough District to hold for Flores. Not saying she is completely out of it but it is very tough. The other two (TX-15 & TX-28) I have as Lean Republican given the current Politcal Environment & Bidens extraordinary bad border policy.

TX-15 is def more likely to flip than TX-28 but ye this is a fair analysis.

I almost wonder if the gop regrets not keeping the old RGV config where they would have a good shot at all 3 seats rather than making 15 and 28 bluer.

One interesting district will be TX-23 cause it’s a battle of rural border Hispanics and diversifying suburbs.

There are National Polls out that have Democrats leading Republicans among Hispanics BUT only by single Digits. Some Polls have both Parties even tied among Hispanics nationally.

If this comes to pass in November GOP will pick up or do very well in a lot of Hispanic Districts around the Country.

I agree that the gop has potential to make huge gains with Hispanics in 2022 akin to how Dems gained with suburban voters. However, outside the southwest, few Hispanic voters are located in politically competaive districts/states as they tend to live in large ultra blue cities that under no circumstance are flipping.

Def have an impact in TX, NM, NV, AZ, and Central Valley though.

Another underrated possibility where it could cost them is NJ; low Hispanic turnout, specifically in the NYC part of the state was part of the reason the Gov race was so close, and Biden’s 2020 performance in NJ in 2020 wasn’t particularly impressive overall (it voted to the right of OR and not that differently from CO)

[Huey Long is a Republican]

What the TXGOP did when redistricting was look at 2020, make a prediction about a realignment at the RGV with Hispanics, and then hoping the Hail Mary will be successful in 2022 and 2024. Only the November results can say if this paid off or not but this special election is starting to make it seem like this was a checkmate move.

[2016]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

The new TX-34 is a Biden +15 District so I think it's a tough District to hold for Flores. Not saying she is completely out of it but it is very tough. The other two (TX-15 & TX-28) I have as Lean Republican given the current Politcal Environment & Bidens extraordinary bad border policy.

TX-15 is def more likely to flip than TX-28 but ye this is a fair analysis.

I almost wonder if the gop regrets not keeping the old RGV config where they would have a good shot at all 3 seats rather than making 15 and 28 bluer.

One interesting district will be TX-23 cause it’s a battle of rural border Hispanics and diversifying suburbs.

There are National Polls out that have Democrats leading Republicans among Hispanics BUT only by single Digits. Some Polls have both Parties even tied among Hispanics nationally.

If this comes to pass in November GOP will pick up or do very well in a lot of Hispanic Districts around the Country.

I agree that the gop has potential to make huge gains with Hispanics in 2022 akin to how Dems gained with suburban voters. However, outside the southwest, few Hispanic voters are located in politically competaive districts/states as they tend to live in large ultra blue cities that under no circumstance are flipping.

Def have an impact in TX, NM, NV, AZ, and Central Valley though.

Another underrated possibility where it could cost them is NJ; low Hispanic turnout, specifically in the NYC part of the state was part of the reason the Gov race was so close, and Biden’s 2020 performance in NJ in 2020 wasn’t particularly impressive overall (it voted to the right of OR and not that differently from CO)

And also in Florida. I am fully aware that the State is very unique because it has still a recognizeable large Cuban-Hispanic Vote BUT what happened in Miami-Dade in 2020 where Biden only won by 8 Points was IMO not an accident.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1536910098571870209

[wbrocks67]

The TX-34 result obviously isn't good for Democrats, but objectively, the Democrats didn't even try here. Flores quite literally outspent Sanchez over 20:1, given the fact that this district is not going to exist later this year in its current form.

Right now, it's about R+5 in total votes, compared to Biden +4 in 2020.

Again, not a *good* result for Ds, but given the midterm environment right now and the fact that Rs actually tried here and Ds didn't, it could've been quite worse.

[bilaps]

The TX-34 result obviously isn't good for Democrats, but objectively, the Democrats didn't even try here. Flores quite literally outspent Sanchez over 20:1, given the fact that this district is not going to exist later this year in its current form.

Right now, it's about R+5 in total votes, compared to Biden +4 in 2020.

Again, not a *good* result for Ds, but given the midterm environment right now and the fact that Rs actually tried here and Ds didn't, it could've been quite worse.

Oh, it will get worse. Just wait.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Just a reminder only 30k folks voted in this special election… compared with over 200k in 2020. That’s a very small small sample. In 2022 I’d expect at least 90k votes to be cast in the new iteration.

Kinda embarrassing how on Dems part they literally did 0 funding to Sanchez and got this awful turnout

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in McAllen, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Dallas and you can repeat that in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada."

You do realize that Mexicans do not only live in Brownsville but also in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and, basically, throughout Texas? Right now, it might appear that the "trade" is worthwhile but we are a rapidly growing demographic and Democrats have a lot to lose from writing us off - there's nothing preventing Mexican-Americans from giving Trump 60 or even 65 percent of the vote in Texas in 2024.

[Brittain33]

It blows my mind that people are extrapolating from a race with such pathetically low turnout. Dems are going to have a bad midterm, but this election has a small fraction of the votes of even the 2017 special elections where Dems fought in Republican seats. We see the 2020 realignment with extra apathy and a small swing away from Biden. There’s a good reason all the Republicans on Twitter keep calling back to Clinton and Obama, not Biden, for a comparison.

Collin and Denton for Cameron is a good trade.

"For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in McAllen, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Dallas and you can repeat that in New Mexico, Arizona and Nevada."

You do realize that Mexicans do not only live in Brownsville but also in Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, and, basically, throughout Texas? Right now, it might appear that the "trade" is worthwhile but we are a rapidly growing demographic and Democrats have a lot to lose from writing us off - there's nothing preventing Mexican-Americans from giving Trump 60 or even 65 percent of the vote in Texas in 2024.

Not writing anyone off other than a marginal voter in the RGV who likes Trump. Is there evidence urban Hispanics are voting like RGV and other rural Hispanics? I don’t see people saying that any of those urban Hispanic districts are at risk like TX-34. And I can match Collin and Denton County with diverse suburbs all over the country if we want to extrapolate, too.