Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[wbrocks67]

Who is the top Dem in the race?

[2016]

R vs R Runoff could be possibly in the CA-22 Special tonight with Democrats facing a worse Political Climate they faced in November 2020.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results at: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/special/us-rep/district/22

Polls close at 11 Eastern

[MaxQue]

R vs R Runoff could be possibly in the CA-22 Special tonight with Democrats facing a worse Political Climate they faced in November 2020.

With 4 R and 2 D that seems unlikely.

[Matty]

https://mobile.twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1511542765632557061

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

9% in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,281
15.6%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,240
20.6%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
20,133
33.8%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
3,942
6.6%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,210
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
8,685
14.6%

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The CA-22 special election is looking REALLY bad for Democrats right now.

Right now Republican candidates have 63.8% of the vote and Democratic candidates have 36.2% of the vote.
In 2020 Nunes won 54.2% of the vote to Arballo's 45.8.
That's a margin shift from 8.4% to 27.6%, or a 19.2% swing right.

[jkmillion]

What did I miss? I was working the entire day and no clue that there was special elections today.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The CA-22 special election is looking REALLY bad for Democrats right now.

Right now Republican candidates have 63.8% of the vote and Democratic candidates have 36.2% of the vote.
In 2020 Nunes won 54.2% of the vote to Arballo's 45.8.
That's a margin shift from 8.4% to 27.6%, or a 19.2% swing right.

I wouldn't try and make big judgments from 9% of the precincts reporting - and remember in California everything is a "partial report" on election night:


Unofficial Election Results
Results will be certified by April 14, 2022.

( 19 of 208 ) precincts partially
reporting as of April 5, 2022, 8:42 p.m.


Precincts are listed as “partially” reporting since vote-by-mail, provisional, and other ballots will continue to be processed and counted after Election Night.


Certainly if this margin holds up it's concerning...but it's early.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What did I miss? I was working the entire day and no clue that there was special elections today.

This is to replace Nunes who resigned to run Truth Social.

You haven't missed much, only 9% of precincts are reporting something.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

The CA-22 special election is looking REALLY bad for Democrats right now.

Right now Republican candidates have 63.8% of the vote and Democratic candidates have 36.2% of the vote.
In 2020 Nunes won 54.2% of the vote to Arballo's 45.8.
That's a margin shift from 8.4% to 27.6%, or a 19.2% swing right.

I wouldn't try and make big judgments from 9% of the precincts reporting - and remember in California everything is a "partial report" on election night:


Unofficial Election Results
Results will be certified by April 14, 2022.

( 19 of 208 ) precincts partially
reporting as of April 5, 2022, 8:42 p.m.


Precincts are listed as “partially” reporting since vote-by-mail, provisional, and other ballots will continue to be processed and counted after Election Night.


Certainly if this margin holds up it's concerning...but it's early.

It says 59% of the vote is in from the Washington Post.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The CA-22 special election is looking REALLY bad for Democrats right now.

Right now Republican candidates have 63.8% of the vote and Democratic candidates have 36.2% of the vote.
In 2020 Nunes won 54.2% of the vote to Arballo's 45.8.
That's a margin shift from 8.4% to 27.6%, or a 19.2% swing right.

I wouldn't try and make big judgments from 9% of the precincts reporting - and remember in California everything is a "partial report" on election night:


Unofficial Election Results
Results will be certified by April 14, 2022.

( 19 of 208 ) precincts partially
reporting as of April 5, 2022, 8:42 p.m.


Precincts are listed as “partially” reporting since vote-by-mail, provisional, and other ballots will continue to be processed and counted after Election Night.


Certainly if this margin holds up it's concerning...but it's early.

It says 59% of the vote is in from the Washington Post.

Not sure how they're calculating that - the 9% number I have is right from the CA SOS.

[jkmillion]

What did I miss? I was working the entire day and no clue that there was special elections today.

This is to replace Nunes who resigned to run Truth Social.

You haven't missed much, only 9% of precincts are reporting something.

So, is this the election day votes, early votes in, both, partially, what?

Since E-Day votes obviously favor the GOP and early votes favor the Democrats.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What did I miss? I was working the entire day and no clue that there was special elections today.

This is to replace Nunes who resigned to run Truth Social.

You haven't missed much, only 9% of precincts are reporting something.

So, is this the election day votes, early votes in, both, partially, what?

Since E-Day votes obviously favor the GOP and early votes favor the Democrats.

Mostly early votes, but it's also disproportionately from the more Republican county in the district. So hard to tell much.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

What did I miss? I was working the entire day and no clue that there was special elections today.

This is to replace Nunes who resigned to run Truth Social.

You haven't missed much, only 9% of precincts are reporting something.

So, is this the election day votes, early votes in, both, partially, what?

Since E-Day votes obviously favor the GOP and early votes favor the Democrats.

Mostly early votes, but it's also disproportionately from the more Republican county in the district. So hard to tell much.

How long will it take for the voting to be counted?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

What did I miss? I was working the entire day and no clue that there was special elections today.

This is to replace Nunes who resigned to run Truth Social.

You haven't missed much, only 9% of precincts are reporting something.

So, is this the election day votes, early votes in, both, partially, what?

Since E-Day votes obviously favor the GOP and early votes favor the Democrats.

Mostly early votes, but it's also disproportionately from the more Republican county in the district. So hard to tell much.

How long will it take for the voting to be counted?

We won't have full numbers until the 14th. For every precinct to be listed as reporting something, though - should happen by morning.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475   
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484   
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631   
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095   
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539   
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433   
15.1%

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

A lot of primaries in 2018 had majority R votes and then flipped D in the general. That being said, this was a highly unlikely flip anyway. Not exactly an amazing bench when the highest D is an "operations manager at the California Dept of Water Resources"

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

A lot of primaries in 2018 had majority R votes and then flipped D in the general. That being said, this was a highly unlikely flip anyway. Not exactly an amazing bench when the highest D is an "operations manager at the California Dept of Water Resources"

Still, the extent of the overperformance shouldn't be ignored.

[Stuart98]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

A lot of primaries in 2018 had majority R votes and then flipped D in the general. That being said, this was a highly unlikely flip anyway. Not exactly an amazing bench when the highest D is an "operations manager at the California Dept of Water Resources"

Not an election Dems have much reason to care about; no impact on the house this congress and the seat will flip to them anyway with the new gerrymandered boundaries in November.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

84% of the initial report in:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,475
15.1%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,484
19.9%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
21,631
34.5%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,095
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,539
8.8%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,433
15.1%

Almost 2-1 ratio between Reps and Dems LOL

A lot of primaries in 2018 had majority R votes and then flipped D in the general. That being said, this was a highly unlikely flip anyway. Not exactly an amazing bench when the highest D is an "operations manager at the California Dept of Water Resources"

Not an election Dems have much reason to care about; no impact on the house this congress and the seat will flip to them anyway with the new gerrymandered boundaries in November.

But this could be a bad sign for Democrats in November.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Tonight's drop is complete. Some ballots will continue to be counted in the coming days:

Eric Garcia
(Party Preference: DEM)
9,574   
15.0%
Lourin Hubbard
(Party Preference: DEM)
12,546   
19.7%
Connie Conway
(Party Preference: REP)
22,175   
34.8%
Elizabeth Heng
(Party Preference: REP)
4,119   
6.5%
Michael Maher
(Party Preference: REP)
5,665   
8.9%
Matt Stoll
(Party Preference: REP)
9,647   
15.1%

[ElectionsGuy]

Is it still only at 63%? 

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is it still only at 63%? 

R's have 65.3% to the D's 34.7%