Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Minnesota Mike]

CNN has projected Sarah Palin to advance to the general election.

So a fictional character did advance in Alaska. Palins just a fairy tale right?

[NewYorkExpress]

CNN has projected Sarah Palin to advance to the general election.

So a fictional character did advance in Alaska. Palins just a fairy tale right?

Wait, John McCain picked a fictional character to serve as his running mate in 2008? I didn't know that.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Projecting Gross will advance!

Palin
29.8%   
32,371
11,377 ahead
Begich
19.3%   
20,994
Gross
12.5%   
13,563
Peltola
7.5%   
8,101
Sweeney
5.3%   
5,712
Claus
4.5%   
4,864
Lowenfels
3.9%   
4,195
Constant
3.5%   
3,805
Coghill Jr.
2.5%   
2,754

[ReallySuper]

If Santa Claus doesn't advance, the election is rigged.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Santa Claus doesn't advance, the election is rigged.

It turns out that neither elves nor reindeer are eligible to vote.

[NOVA Green]

If Santa Claus doesn't advance, the election is rigged.

It turns out that neither elves nor reindeer are eligible to vote.

The Fairies might be banned as well, but still might take a bit of time to count the ballots...   

[I’m not Stu]

If Santa Claus doesn't advance, the election is rigged.

You mean Idaho Constitution Party politician Walt Bayes ?

[ReallySuper]

If Santa Claus doesn't advance, the election is rigged.

You mean Idaho Constitution Party politician Walt Bayes ?

Walt Bayes is a magical icon but I am of course referring to the real Santa from North Pole

[Senator Incitatus]

Very cursory research tells me that if/when Flores wins, she'll become the first woman born in Mexico ever elected to the House and the third Mexican-American Republican woman ever elected (after Barbara Vucanovich and Jaime Herrera Beutler).

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/06/14/us/elections/results-texas-us-house-district-34-special-election.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections-2022&region=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc

Polls close at 8 ET

For coverage of the other races tonight, go to the Congressional Primaries megathread - only TX-34 will be on this thread.

[Gracile]

Flores is in the lead now, 46.8% to 46.3%.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Flores at over 50% according to CNN

[Senator Incitatus]

Here's where the NYT county results are so far, ordered by Vela's margin, which typically also means from south to north (all results partial, will update):

County	2020 Margin	2022 Margin*
Willacy	D+30	R+2
Hidalgo	D+26	D+19
Cameron	D+26	D+2
Kenedy	D+8	—
Kleberg	D+1.5	R+15.2
Jim Wells	R+3	—
San Patricio	R+4	R+5
Bee	R+24.5	R+38
Goliad	R+54	R+58
Gonzales	R+60	R+64
De Witt	R+64	—

As you might expect, Flores is improving much more in the south than in the already-Republican north. Anyone know whether or not this is early vote? Consistent 40% reporting across all counties.

[Brittain33]

Flores at over 50% according to CNN

Website says she has 47.6% now to Sanchez 45.5%. Extremely low vote totals so far.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Flores at over 50% according to CNN

Website says she has 47.6% now to Sanchez 45.5%. Extremely low vote totals so far.

Yah though given this seat will go from D+4 to D+16 its hard for me to see this anything but a rental given these results so far

[Senator Incitatus]

Kenedy County (30 votes) is naturally the first to finish reporting. Sanchez wins by 7 points, close to Vela's margin.

[Matty]

Kenedy County (30 votes) is naturally the first to finish reporting. Sanchez wins by 7 points, close to Vela's margin.

Totally immaterial

[Brittain33]

Flores at over 50% according to CNN

Website says she has 47.6% now to Sanchez 45.5%. Extremely low vote totals so far.

Yah though given this seat will go from D+4 to D+16 its hard for me to see this anything but a rental given these results so far

If it goes to a runoff, I wonder if Dems decide to compete rather than sit it out as they have been. This turnout is so low.

[Senator Incitatus]

Seeing that the 47-45 margin in Cameron for Sanchez is in fact all early vote. Seems likely Flores wins Cameron and will avoid the runoff.

Kenedy County (30 votes) is naturally the first to finish reporting. Sanchez wins by 7 points, close to Vela's margin.

Totally immaterial

Thank you for your material commentary.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Here's where the NYT county results are so far, ordered by Vela's margin, which typically also means from south to north (all results partial, will update):

County	2020 Margin	2022 Margin*
Willacy	D+30	R+2
Hidalgo	D+26	D+19
Cameron	D+26	D+2
Kenedy	D+8	—
Kleberg	D+1.5	R+15.2
Jim Wells	R+3	—
San Patricio	R+4	R+5
Bee	R+24.5	R+38
Goliad	R+54	R+58
Gonzales	R+60	R+64
De Witt	R+64	—

As you might expect, Flores is improving much more in the south than in the already-Republican north. Anyone know whether or not this is early vote? Consistent 40% reporting across all counties.

Are all of these counties in the district?

[Senator Incitatus]

Interesting that this story, while not in the district, dropped tonight, probably too late to affect any votes. Many of the voters are CBP agents or relatives of one; Flores's husband is an agent:

https://twitter.com/BillFOXLA/status/1536846948061401094

[Senator Incitatus]

Here's where the NYT county results are so far, ordered by Vela's margin, which typically also means from south to north (all results partial, will update):

[-table-]

As you might expect, Flores is improving much more in the south than in the already-Republican north. Anyone know whether or not this is early vote? Consistent 40% reporting across all counties.

Are all of these counties in the district?

In the new district? No. It cuts off a lot of the Republican north and Gonzalez is a strong favorite.

[Senator Incitatus]

Flores already on the verge of hitting 50%. Just took the lead in Cameron. Don't see any chance of Sanchez holding her off now. You can call it.

Update (bold margins final):

County	2020 Margin	2022 Margin*
Willacy	D+30	R+2
Hidalgo	D+26	D+9
Cameron	D+26	R+0.1
Kenedy	D+8	D+7
Kleberg	D+1.5	R+20
Jim Wells	R+3	R+7
San Patricio	R+4	R+13
Bee	R+24.5	R+53
Goliad	R+54	R+64
Gonzales	R+60	R+64
De Witt	R+64	R+69

[Aurelius]

Latinxit.

[Lief 🗽]

Horrible result. Soon the only people left voting for this party will be wealthy white progressives.