Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Roll Roons]

So here's something that understandably went unnoticed: Mike Carey won OH-15 by just under 17 points, while Trump had won it by 14.

This result was definitely not consistent with what we saw in NJ or VA. Why was the swing in this district so much smaller?

[Stuart98]

https://twitter.com/alextdaugherty/status/1456395201568727046?t=8DucaaDk3xfOPjls...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/alextdaugherty/status/1456395201568727046?t=8DucaaDk3xfOPjls...

The word recount and palm beach/florida make me feel ill.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So here's something that understandably went unnoticed: Mike Carey won OH-15 by just under 17 points, while Trump had won it by 14.

This result was definitely not consistent with what we saw in NJ or VA. Why was the swing in this district so much smaller?

It's kind of a polarized district and the Republicans are pretty maxed out in most of their strong areas in it

[Biden his time]

With this kind of margin, I'm 100% convinced that the main reason for a hypothetical McCormick victory would be the sign spam she issued...

[OneJ]

https://twitter.com/TooMuchMe/status/1456721865905512448

[Biden 2024]

https://twitter.com/sheila4congress/status/1407742763345629192?s=21 lol

[Vosem]

So here's something that understandably went unnoticed: Mike Carey won OH-15 by just under 17 points, while Trump had won it by 14.

This result was definitely not consistent with what we saw in NJ or VA. Why was the swing in this district so much smaller?

It's kind of a polarized district and the Republicans are pretty maxed out in most of their strong areas in it

Also, Carey was a pretty lazy candidate who tried to coast off his Trump endorsement (and not all Republican-leaners are happy about this, obviously), while Russo actually ran a really energetic campaign. In the current environment it didn't really matter, but if this had been a special in 2017-2018 I'm actually pretty confident it would've flipped.

[lfromnj]

So here's something that understandably went unnoticed: Mike Carey won OH-15 by just under 17 points, while Trump had won it by 14.

This result was definitely not consistent with what we saw in NJ or VA. Why was the swing in this district so much smaller?

It's kind of a polarized district and the Republicans are pretty maxed out in most of their strong areas in it

Also, Carey was a pretty lazy candidate who tried to coast off his Trump endorsement (and not all Republican-leaners are happy about this, obviously), while Russo actually ran a really energetic campaign. In the current environment it didn't really matter, but if this had been a special in 2017-2018 I'm actually pretty confident it would've flipped.

I mean its pretty similar to Conor Lamb's original district. Some rich suburbs but also some ancestral dem rural/exurban areas.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

FL is a very hostile state for progressive dems, so this is a pretty damning indictment on the incompetency of the FL state party.

[Bootes Void]

So here's something that understandably went unnoticed: Mike Carey won OH-15 by just under 17 points, while Trump had won it by 14.

This result was definitely not consistent with what we saw in NJ or VA. Why was the swing in this district so much smaller?

It seems like congressional districts don't have large swings. Remember  the NM special election from earlier on

[Biden 2024]

https://twitter.com/sheila4congress/status/1407742763345629192?s=21 lol

Looks like she won.

[Gracile]

Excited to see Cherfilus-McCormick in Congress (if the apparent result still holds)!

[Biden his time]

Grifters gon grift

[Biden his time]

McCormick is likely going to be in office for a long time. Possibly as long as Hastings...
Sad to see the grift succeed... Especially when the truth about WAYNE was being suppressed

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.
Posting here to remind myself later.

[Sestak]

New longest surname in Congress, excellent.

[beesley]

McCormick is likely going to be in office for a long time. Possibly as long as Hastings...
Sad to see the grift succeed... Especially when the truth about WAYNE was being suppressed

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.
Posting here to remind myself later.

Given the splintering of the field is she at all vulnerable in a future primary?

[Biden his time]

McCormick is likely going to be in office for a long time. Possibly as long as Hastings...
Sad to see the grift succeed... Especially when the truth about WAYNE was being suppressed

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.
Posting here to remind myself later.

Given the splintering of the field is she at all vulnerable in a future primary?

It'd take a lot of things to happen IMO
The incumbency advantage is very strong

But there are certain circumstances where she could be vulnerable.
For instance it's possible she turns into a backbencher and decides not to campaign against an insurgent candidate with high name recognition (who doesn't have their lane splintered) in a manner similar to Nelson 2018.
Perhaps the insurgent could even beat her if she does put up a fight and if she campaigns on the wrong issues.
Or perhaps there's a convergence where a very popular candidate from the Black part of Palm Beach siphons a lot of votes from her (that was her base) while a Broward candidate just does modestly well.

The way she literally bought herself a seat (after trying again and again for many years) was insane though, with these kinds of stacks that has a lower chance of happening IMO

[Calthrina950]

Didn't Cherfilus-McCormick mount multiple primary challenges against Hastings during his final years? It's ironic that she will now be his successor. I'm certain such a situation has happened before, where the prior incumbent's primary challenger is unable to beat them, but succeeds them in office upon their death or retirement.

[Horus]

Good to have a Marianne supporter in Congress.

[Biden his time]

Didn't Cherfilus-McCormick mount multiple primary challenges against Hastings during his final years?

Yes, she did! And it's crazy because she hasn't even improved on her vote totals from previously, but just benefited from the non-grifter vote being split seventeen ways.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Didn't Cherfilus-McCormick mount multiple primary challenges against Hastings during his final years? It's ironic that she will now be his successor. I'm certain such a situation has happened before, where the prior incumbent's primary challenger is unable to beat them, but succeeds them in office upon their death or retirement.

The most significant case is probably Adriano Espaillat coming up just short in beating Rangel several times, and easily taking the seat upon his retirement.

[Calthrina950]

Didn't Cherfilus-McCormick mount multiple primary challenges against Hastings during his final years?

Yes, she did! And it's crazy because she hasn't even improved on her vote totals from previously, but just benefited from the non-grifter vote being split seventeen ways.

Well, now that she will be the incumbent, she'll become entrenched, assuming she doesn't act foolish, and will have an easier time going forward.

[Biden his time]

Didn't Cherfilus-McCormick mount multiple primary challenges against Hastings during his final years?

Yes, she did! And it's crazy because she hasn't even improved on her vote totals from previously, but just benefited from the non-grifter vote being split seventeen ways.

Well, now that she will be the incumbent, she'll become entrenched, assuming she doesn't act foolish, and will have an easier time going forward.

Yep, this is exactly why I find it disappointing.

You win some, you lose some though

[StateBoiler]

Holness has filed suit in Broward County.

https://ballot-access.org/2021/12/01/florida-lawsuit-tries-to-alter-identity-of-democratic-nominee-for-u-s-house-20th-district-special-election/

Suit says "Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick, is not eligible because (1) she didn’t file a campaign finance report; (2) she campaigned on a promise to work for an additional $1,000 federal stimulus check for all taxpayers, and the lawsuit says this is equivalent to trying to bribe the voters."

There is also an item in the suit saying election officials improperly refused to count 12 overseas absentee ballots. How those break no one knows, but if they decide to count them they're enough to potentially change the result.

Special election set for January 11th, so if this suit is not dismissed immediately they'd almost certainly have to delay the election. S.C. Mac being ineligible is easy to dismiss but the fate of the 12 absentee votes should be given due process.