Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1422717586681344012?s=20

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https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1422728433533063181?s=21

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455705163050754051?s=20

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https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1536896640803647493?s=21&t=pjXJQDoRzYm...

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When should we expect to get another batch of votes counted in Alaska?

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https://twitter.com/bradygibson/status/1561045626376388608?s=21&t=_VhPYeEVUC...

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https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1563373089773068290?s=21&t=ImEKx6RT...

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So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

I disagree. I think if Peltola wins the special, Republicans will view Palin as being unelectable and will unite around Begich for the regular election in hopes of defeating Peltola.

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So... is whoever wins this seat gonna keep it or is it just gonna be a three-month rental?

In the event of Peltola winning, Begich can absolutely attack Palin as someone unable to win a statewide race in Alaska which might help him with first preferences in the general; conversely, in the event of Palin winning (particularly if it's somewhat decisive), more Alaskan Dems might decide that a Dem is unable to win statewide and vote Begich first to try to eliminate Palin (just as they'll vote for Murkowski first).

On the other hand, incumbency benefit may help out. Will be very interesting to see.

I think if Peltola wins, Republicans will swallow their pride and have Begich drop out and take the chance that Palin can win head-to-head.

I disagree. I think if Peltola wins the special, Republicans will view Palin as being unelectable and will unite around Begich for the regular election in hopes of defeating Peltola.

This would require Palin's cooperation.

Maybe, maybe not.  I don't think there is any question that far fewer Palin voters would rank Peltola over Begich, compared to Begich voters ranking Peltola over Palin. The bigger question if Palin loses is will Palin be able to pull the same 30% of voters or will enough jump ship that Begich takes 2nd. 

I totally agree with this. I don’t really think it requires Palin’s cooperation. In fact, I think Palin will stay in the race for the regular election regardless of what happens in the special. If Palin wins the special election, I think she’ll be in a good position to win again in November. But if she loses, I think enough voters who had Palin as their first choice in the special would defect to Begich for the regular election, which would allow him to take the 2nd spot in the first round and defeat Peltola in the final round in November. While Palin has a loyal group of supporters who will vote for her no matter what, Begich only finished around 3-4 points behind Palin. I think he could pull at least that amount of support from Palin (if she loses the special) to get the second spot in November.

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https://twitter.com/sltrib/status/1663598440562012160?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4tbLkn...

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Why does deep red Utah have vote by mail? The idea of turning "election day" into election week is ridiculous and should not be the new normal. Before 2018 we never had to wait till after election night to know who won the races.

Why is it ridiculous?

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https://twitter.com/ap_politics/status/1699572039680458830?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno4...