Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Sub Jero]

Looks like Lourin Hubbard is gonna get second place.

The runoff is safe for Conway.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/04/05/us/elections/results-california-house-district-22-special-election.html

For some reason the SOS took down their live feed, but the above still works for watching things flow in^

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Conway and Hubbard have been projected to advance.

GOP sitting at 66.2% of the vote. Runoff is being held concurrently with California's regular primaries so it should be closer, but still, really tough to see a Conway loss. Certainly concerned as to what this could be hinting with regards to November.

[GeneralMacArthur]

As much as I love that this pinned thread features a poll reminding us how wrong Atlas was about Nina Turner's invincibility, I think we maybe ought to have a new one that doesn't feature an outdated poll on every page.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1524115103867543553?s=21&t=_wOx-uMNH...

Pat ryan to face Molinaro in NY 19th special and general I assume.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1524115103867543553?s=21&t=_wOx-uMNH...

Pat ryan to face Molinaro in NY 19th special and general I assume.

Who knows what the district will be for next year.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1524115103867543553?s=21&t=_wOx-uMNH...

Pat ryan to face Molinaro in NY 19th special and general I assume.

Who knows what the district will be for next year.

I can't see it not having Ulster county.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1524115103867543553?s=21&t=_wOx-uMNH...

Pat ryan to face Molinaro in NY 19th special and general I assume.

Who knows what the district will be for next year.

I can't see it not having Ulster county.

There's several possiblities assuming the Special Master doesn't do something crazy but all land the seat somewhere between Biden + 3 and Trump + 7 which should be at least lean R for 2022. Ik this is stereotypical, but a seat like this is really the classic example of where Dems rely on higher propoensity voters so we'll see how true the theory of higher propensity voters turning out boosting Dems as well as the theory of if "suburbs" that swung hard left in the North East will swing back hard right.

Also I will point out Ulster alone isn't enough to make the district Biden district. In order to be a Biden district it has to have the blue parts of Ulster + at least 2 of the following:

-An arm into Vestal or Ithaca
-Utica without taking in too much of Oneida
-Significant turf east of the Hudson
-Some blue turf in the greater Albany metro (unlikely but still possible)

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Results Page for tonight's MN-1 Special Primary: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/minnesota/republican-primaries-special/us-house-district-1

Polls close at 9 ET.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the D primary for Ettinger!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the R Primary for Finstad!

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1531774560454025217?t=OGk5mAx1vmo0xKdol...

[Umengus]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1531774560454025217?t=OGk5mAx1vmo0xKdol...

lol, the guy is losing.

It will be very interesting to measure the mood of the electorate, especially the South Texas Hispanic electorate. If gop doens't win, it will be disappointing. Again, the low turnout will prevent drawing too big conclusions.

[Brittain33]

I’d like to update the thread title. What’s coming up?

[Gracile]

I’d like to update the thread title. What’s coming up?

AK-AL (Primary - 6/11, General - 8/16)
CA-22 (6/7)
MN-01 (8/9)
NE-01 (6/28)
NY-19 (8/23)
NY-23 (8/23)
TX-34 (Blanket primary 6/14, Runoff TBD if no candidate gets a majority)

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1531774560454025217?t=OGk5mAx1vmo0xKdol...

lol, the guy is losing.

It will be very interesting to measure the mood of the electorate, especially the South Texas Hispanic electorate. If gop doens't win, it will be disappointing. Again, the low turnout will prevent drawing too big conclusions.

While IMO Flores is favoured, to act like she's anything close to a shoewin is a bit cocky IMO.

She def is running the stronger campaign and Dems are facing unfavourable headwins.

However, this is ultimately still a narrow Biden district and special election turnout dynamics can be really funky, especially in the RGV where there is a strong case a lot of Trump's new votes were from people who are very unreliable voters otherwise. We also haven't seen an R actually win this district in any notable election.

It could end up being an inverse of the GA-06 2017 election. GA-06 was a narrow Trump 2016 district that had some brutal shifts for the GOP. However, despite unfavorable headwinds and a strong campaign by Ossoff, Handel still narrowly held on, only to lose in 2018 and Dems have held the district ever since. Ossoff won it in his Senate bid and is now a US Senator.

This is also why I think even if Sanchez wins in the special, he isn't a lock for the GE despite the district getting bluer in redistricting.

Whatever the result, people are going to make too much out of it as either as proof the entire RGV is now gone for Dems or it'll go back to Obama levels.

[I’m not Stu]

Does Alex Padilla get a majority in the first round of the special election today?

[2016]

CA-22 today

Conway 60 %
Hubbard 40 %

That is sort of my Prediction.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the Senate Special for Padilla!

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling CA-22 for Conway!

[2016]

Republican Connie Conways lead over Democrat Lourin Hubbard grows to 13K+ Votes in the CA-22 Special, 60.1 to 39.9 according to CNN with 70 % of the Vote in.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/california/special-election/us-house-district-22

This is a Trump +11 District under the old lines and she will win this quite possibly by 25 Points.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

For tonight: https://www.cnn.com/election/2022/results/alaska/primaries-special/us-house-district-1

Polls close between Midnight and 1 AM Eastern.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1535849705925750786

Palin doing better than I expected.

[NewYorkExpress]

CNN has projected Sarah Palin to advance to the general election.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Projecting Palin and Begich will advance!