Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[Biden his time]

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.

Didn't have to:

Image Link

[beesley]

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.

Didn't have to:

Image Link

Nice maps - I assume Holness must've done quite poorly in Palm Beach.

It also highlights that FL-20 is about as discontiguous as you could make a district with it still being contiguous.

[Calthrina950]

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.

Didn't have to:

Image Link

Nice maps - I assume Holness must've done quite poorly in Palm Beach.

It also highlights that FL-20 is about as discontiguous as you could make a district with it still being contiguous.

As I recall, much of FL-20's territory is either uninhabited or very low populated.

[Biden his time]

Imma make some precinct maps of the FL-20 Democratic primary.

Didn't have to:

Image Link

Nice maps - I assume Holness must've done quite poorly in Palm Beach.

It also highlights that FL-20 is about as discontiguous as you could make a district with it still being contiguous.

As I recall, much of FL-20's territory is either uninhabited or very low populated.

Yeah, the Western half of Broward and much of the Western half of Palm Beach County are nature preserves.

The Northwestern part of Palm Beach (near Lake Okeechobee) is actually very blue though and has large Black and Mexican populations. It's an agricultural area.

Anyway today's election day what do you all think the margin will end up as?

[Minnesota Mike]

An as expected result in FL-20 with almost all the vote in.


Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick- Democrat 41,881-  78.4%

Jason Mariner- Republican- 10,636    19.9%

Cherfilus-McCormick improved slightly on Biden's numbers.

[BoiseBoy]

Overall turnout is about 16.6% of the 2020 election for this seat. Not surprising, as we're all aware.

Republicans are about at 15.5% of their 2020 turnout, Democrats are at 16.5% of their 2020 turnout.

[Nyvin]

Is Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick a squad member or does she just have very similar policy positions?

[Biden his time]

Is Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick a squad member or does she just have very similar policy positions?

Nah, she won't join the squad. Just is moderately progressive.
If our district got a whiff of that Holness (who's already running) would be able to steamroll her in August.

AOC's favorability rating in this district is only 5% higher than it is nationwide (even though Democrats win this district 80-20)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

An as expected result in FL-20 with almost all the vote in.


Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick- Democrat 41,881-  78.4%

Jason Mariner- Republican- 10,636 19.9%

Cherfilus-McCormick improved slightly on Biden's numbers.

Did any special elections end with a republican overperformance compared to Biden ?

[Matty]

Any reason GOP didn't do better here?

Biden's ratings are in the crapper in florida right now. why didn't that translate into a gop improvement in margin tonight?

[Roll Roons]

An as expected result in FL-20 with almost all the vote in.


Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick- Democrat 41,881-  78.4%

Jason Mariner- Republican- 10,636 19.9%

Cherfilus-McCormick improved slightly on Biden's numbers.

Did any special elections end with a republican overperformance compared to Biden ?

I think the Ohio ones both did, but it was slight. Carey in OH-15 actually did far worse than Stivers did in 2020.

TX-06 isn't a perfect comparison because of the format, but the collective GOP vote share in the first round was far better than Trump's.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Are any right-leaners getting a bit worried about the lack of over-performances? I know they haven’t been very competitive, but still you’d expect some noticeable movement

[Roll Roons]

Are any right-leaners getting a bit worried about the lack of over-performances? I know they haven’t been very competitive, but still you’d expect some noticeable movement

Ah yes, a notorious lack of overperformances.

[Matty]

Are any right-leaners getting a bit worried about the lack of over-performances? I know they haven’t been very competitive, but still you’d expect some noticeable movement

Most special elections have been R overperformances

[ElectionsGuy]

Any reason GOP didn't do better here?

Biden's ratings are in the crapper in florida right now. why didn't that translate into a gop improvement in margin tonight?

If you're a Republican in a deep blue district, what would you do? Turn out for one election that you know your candidate will lose, or turnout in November with statewide offices that could be won by Republicans, and vote straight ticket across the board there. Most Republicans aren't even going to be aware of this election, and actually in years such as 2014 R's have done worse in this district. It's really not that big of a deal.

We've seen this kind of thing in other deep blue districts, such as OH-11 and LA-02. Very partisan districts tend to be a poorer measure of the national environment than more competitive districts, and even then they tend to be spotty and random.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/SaintStinky/status/1481343576143323136?s=20

Lol he's not conceding and he lost by 60%... come on man, you were always a sacrificial lamb

[Nyvin]

What's his point here?   He was listed first on the ballot which is actually an advantage.   What's his problem with the ballot?

https://twitter.com/VoteMariner/status/1479954065631203328

[Mr. Matt]

Florida Man is Florida Manning

[they don't love you like i love you]

Lol, EPIC ratio.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/VoteMariner/status/1479954065631203328

Yes?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What's his point here?   He was listed first on the ballot which is actually an advantage.   What's his problem with the ballot?

https://twitter.com/VoteMariner/status/1479954065631203328

I'm shocked, shocked, that in a Titanium Safe D district, there are more Ds running than Rs.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think he might be objecting to the alignment where the "REP" and "DEM" in the column for his race are very close to the bubbles for the race to its right, which might cause people to fill in the wrong ones.  But that's purely a guess.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Any reason GOP didn't do better here?

Biden's ratings are in the crapper in florida right now. why didn't that translate into a gop improvement in margin tonight?

If you're a Republican in a deep blue district, what would you do? Turn out for one election that you know your candidate will lose, or turnout in November with statewide offices that could be won by Republicans, and vote straight ticket across the board there. Most Republicans aren't even going to be aware of this election, and actually in years such as 2014 R's have done worse in this district. It's really not that big of a deal.

We've seen this kind of thing in other deep blue districts, such as OH-11 and LA-02. Very partisan districts tend to be a poorer measure of the national environment than more competitive districts, and even then they tend to be spotty and random.

To add on to this, there definately is the theory that the rightwards swing in deep blue minority districts in cities in 2020 Pres election was exclusive to the high turnout and that in a significantly lower turnout election, only your more "normal" voters show up. There is some evidence to suggest that voters who are less reliable are also less likley to vote in line with how their greater community does.

Overall I don't think her 60 point win is really anything of note because of how low turnout this was.

[Sub Jero]

Who wins the California 22 special election today?

Connie Conway?

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Who wins the California 22 special election today?

Connie Conway?

Conway will likely make the runoff yes.