Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[2016]

Republicans finally get back to 2013 Seats! Hope it stays that way for the next year to put pressure on Pelosi!

[2016]

R vs R Runoff could be possibly in the CA-22 Special tonight with Democrats facing a worse Political Climate they faced in November 2020.

[2016]

CA-22 today

Conway 60 %
Hubbard 40 %

That is sort of my Prediction.

[2016]

Republican Connie Conways lead over Democrat Lourin Hubbard grows to 13K+ Votes in the CA-22 Special, 60.1 to 39.9 according to CNN with 70 % of the Vote in.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/california/special-election/us-house-district-22

This is a Trump +11 District under the old lines and she will win this quite possibly by 25 Points.

[2016]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

[2016]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

The new TX-34 is a Biden +15 District so I think it's a tough District to hold for Flores. Not saying she is completely out of it but it is very tough. The other two (TX-15 & TX-28) I have as Lean Republican given the current Politcal Environment & Bidens extraordinary bad border policy.

[2016]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

The new TX-34 is a Biden +15 District so I think it's a tough District to hold for Flores. Not saying she is completely out of it but it is very tough. The other two (TX-15 & TX-28) I have as Lean Republican given the current Politcal Environment & Bidens extraordinary bad border policy.

TX-15 is def more likely to flip than TX-28 but ye this is a fair analysis.

I almost wonder if the gop regrets not keeping the old RGV config where they would have a good shot at all 3 seats rather than making 15 and 28 bluer.

One interesting district will be TX-23 cause it’s a battle of rural border Hispanics and diversifying suburbs.

There are National Polls out that have Democrats leading Republicans among Hispanics BUT only by single Digits. Some Polls have both Parties even tied among Hispanics nationally.

If this comes to pass in November GOP will pick up or do very well in a lot of Hispanic Districts around the Country.

[2016]

Bro, are you doing an open seat race swing against an uncontested race with a popular incumbent? Why not the swing vs. Biden/Trump? Tom Price got 62% in the 2016 election but the real indicator in that district was the Clinton/ Trump number - the environment didn’t swing hugely against Trump in the few months before Handel/Ossoff.

I am making a BOLD PREDICTION that Republicans will also win TX-28 (Cuellar vs Cassandra Garcia) and TX-15 (Michelle Vallejo vs Monica de la Cruz Hernandez).

The signs were there that the Biden Admin would face massiv backslash because of their horrendous border policy in the Rio Grande Valley.

Yes, this is only a Special Election but the signs that persistet by over a year have now been confirmed.

I agree with TX-15; TX-28 is a bit difficult though because really only half the seat is actually located in the RGV.

Also worth noting when you combine the D and R vote totals it's 52-47 rn

The fact they're behind in Cameron County is troublesome though because it shows the GOP can break through in urban parts of the RGV given the right messaging.

Also interesting that most of the heaviest R swings appear to be coming from the Northern part of the district which is a bit less Hispanic and a lot more R.

The new TX-34 is a Biden +15 District so I think it's a tough District to hold for Flores. Not saying she is completely out of it but it is very tough. The other two (TX-15 & TX-28) I have as Lean Republican given the current Politcal Environment & Bidens extraordinary bad border policy.

TX-15 is def more likely to flip than TX-28 but ye this is a fair analysis.

I almost wonder if the gop regrets not keeping the old RGV config where they would have a good shot at all 3 seats rather than making 15 and 28 bluer.

One interesting district will be TX-23 cause it’s a battle of rural border Hispanics and diversifying suburbs.

There are National Polls out that have Democrats leading Republicans among Hispanics BUT only by single Digits. Some Polls have both Parties even tied among Hispanics nationally.

If this comes to pass in November GOP will pick up or do very well in a lot of Hispanic Districts around the Country.

I agree that the gop has potential to make huge gains with Hispanics in 2022 akin to how Dems gained with suburban voters. However, outside the southwest, few Hispanic voters are located in politically competaive districts/states as they tend to live in large ultra blue cities that under no circumstance are flipping.

Def have an impact in TX, NM, NV, AZ, and Central Valley though.

Another underrated possibility where it could cost them is NJ; low Hispanic turnout, specifically in the NYC part of the state was part of the reason the Gov race was so close, and Biden’s 2020 performance in NJ in 2020 wasn’t particularly impressive overall (it voted to the right of OR and not that differently from CO)

And also in Florida. I am fully aware that the State is very unique because it has still a recognizeable large Cuban-Hispanic Vote BUT what happened in Miami-Dade in 2020 where Biden only won by 8 Points was IMO not an accident.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1536910098571870209

[2016]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

[2016]

Mayra Flores was sworn in today and I had tears running to my face watching this.

https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1539384342299803648

A bit ironic how literally 90% of the folks behind her are old white men with a few white women scattered in.

The main issue I have with the GOP is whenever a minority gets elected on the GOP, they often get pushed to the forefront to try and make the GOP seem more diverse than it actually is, even if they won on mostly or almost entirely white support. I'm not a fan of when Dems do it either, but at least their caucus is genuinely pretty diverse throughout and they tend to win over minority voters.

I will give credit to Flores though in that she both is a woman of colour and won off Hispanic voters which shows an expanding tent on the GOP's part.

The district is like 80% Hispanic. She didn’t win on mostly white support.

No, that's not what ProgressiveModerate meant. There are mostly White Men & White Women standing behind her when she speaks.

[2016]

wbrocks67,
You are a little bit of a Fraud. Acting all of the sudden like Democrats will gain 15 Seats and hold the House is baloney.

The Economy/Inflation are still the Top 2 Issues for Voters.

For Comparision: In 2018 41 % picked Healthcare as Top Issue according to Exit Polls and I doubt Abortion will be that high.

[2016]

Sarah Palin has IMO been pretty unfairly treated by the Media in 2008 and this year as well. Hope she wins. She has even gotten the Endorsement from Nikki Haley.

I think without the Mar-a-Lago Raid Palin would have finished third.

Alaska Election Officials said that this year August Primary has eclipsed the Record Turnout they had in a Primary previously in 2014.

Trump factor was in play yet again. Whether you like or hate the guy he brings out the Voters on both Sides.

The Alaska Polls were done before the FBI Raid. Alaska is also notoriously a difficult State to poll.

[2016]

Confirmed

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1564743537098473473