2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't think there's more variance than normal in generic ballot polls.  It's just we perceive more variance because the race is so close.  Check out the generic ballot polls from 2006...they range from D+4 to D+20 just in the last 3 days of the campaign:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html#polls

This is an excellent point.  There's a saying that polls can tell you whether a race is close, but they can't tell you who's ahead in a close race.  Polls generate a probablistic range of support levels, and that simply doesn't map perfectly to a binary result like the outcome of an election.

[wbrocks67]

I don't think there's more variance than normal in generic ballot polls.  It's just we perceive more variance because the race is so close.  Check out the generic ballot polls from 2006...they range from D+4 to D+20 just in the last 3 days of the campaign:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html#polls

This is an excellent point.  There's a saying that polls can tell you whether a race is close, but they can't tell you who's ahead in a close race.  Polls generate a probablistic range of support levels, and that simply doesn't map perfectly to a binary result like the outcome of an election.

This is why IMO the polls generally point to a neutral environment/tied. We're consistently seeing up to D+5 on one end, and up to R+5 on the other end.

[kwabbit]

Polls are not unusually variable this year. If anything, recent years suffered from too much herding. We won’t be as blindsided this year if there’s an unexpected outcome as we would be if every pollster was publishing R+1 on the GCB.

[Devils30]

https://www.270towin.com/2022-house-election/L5V0pYq

What happens if the effect from Dobbs is real in high education suburbs, these move further D compared to 2020 as we saw in the specials while Dems drop off a tad but not significantly in Hispanic areas. Let's say Biden +8 places become Dem +3-5 or so and WWC districts shift right but only slightly. NY/OR/RI is a weak spot but lets say Ds lose 4% off their 2020 but ultimately GOP efforts in CT-5, RI-2, NY anything is wasted.

And we get something like:
Democrats 49%
Republicans 48%

Is the above map really a crazy outcome? KS-3, NE-2, NJ-7 share a lot of similarities and there is room for a Dem dropoff in CA-22, 27, NM-2 where they can still win. OR-4,6, CT-5, RI-2, NY-17 shift right but not enough to flip and NY-19 (Ithaca in, Dutchess out) still looks decent for team Blue.

Note, Peltola, Cartwright, Kaptur, Golden winning Trump seats could be huge in this scenario. These four (and possibly Axne) surviving could push the Dems popular vote margin required down from 2-3% to as low as 0.5-1.5% in my opinion.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1585978474338037762

[MT Treasurer]

*snip*

I dunno man, what about YouGov and Morning Consult?

[Calthrina950]

*snip*

I dunno man, what about YouGov and Morning Consult?

And Politico and Ipsos as well. Some believe that those pollsters are accurately reflecting the state of the national environment, and we're headed for a strong Democratic overperformance.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Connor Lamb clearly was the best choice, and Fetterman had what 55/36 lead and now Oz is leading 3 that was Ds Ace a sure win now Fetterman is in the same boat as Barnes I am still optimistic, but the H usually flips with Senate only once did that didn't happen and it was in 2018, in 2006 it happened to Rs

President Johnson and Sir Muhammad was saying PA was solid D but WI is Lean R now according to polls Barnes and Fetterman are in the same boat 3 pts behind

[2016]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

[Person Man]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

As the economy improves, more people are becoming Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

As the economy improves, more people are becoming Republican.

You think 8.2% inflation is improving economy lol plse

[TML]

I don't think there's more variance than normal in generic ballot polls.  It's just we perceive more variance because the race is so close.  Check out the generic ballot polls from 2006...they range from D+4 to D+20 just in the last 3 days of the campaign:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2006_generic_congressional_vote-2174.html#polls

Speaking of 2006, that year actually had the largest House polling error (R+6.0) according to 538's model for election cycles since 1996 (the earliest year which there was sufficient House polling for its model). According to Nate Silver, what happened that year was that although Democrats were often leading the GCB by double digits (the GCB average according to 538's model was D+13.9), their leads in district-level polls were often in the low single digits, so taking the average of the GCB and district level polls would yield something close to the actual House NPV (D+7.9). In that year, even though the polling error was large, Democrats already had a large enough lead in the GCB that it didn't prevent them from taking over both houses of Congress.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

Yeah and we have a DOJ Department that hasn't prosecuted Trump Ds are gonna be calling for Garland head if we lose


I warned that this was gonna happen and this was the worse case scenario for Ds no Indictment of Trump and we lose CONGRESS

[RI]

https://twitter.com/trafalgar_group/status/1586144305948766208

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1586121712336265218?s=46&t=zQKyG7h...

[SnowLabrador]

I don't know who's going to win the midterms, but I do know that the polling industry is going to lose.

[Calthrina950]

I don't know who's going to win the midterms, but I do know that the polling industry is going to lose.

It's absolutely hilarious to see a R+6 GCB (Trafalgar) followed by a D+2 GCB (Winston Group) on this thread.

[Calthrina950]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

[wbrocks67]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

Quite frankly, even if the Democrats were leading on the GCB right now, they would never be "acting" like it in public, especially after so many polling errors in the past. Even if the Dems were up by 10, there would still be an entire aura of "is it even real?"

Plainly, these days, because people are so burned by polls, only a Republican lead among polls is to be trusted. Even a Dem is leading, there is still whispers of, "but are they really?"

[Calthrina950]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

Quite frankly, even if the Democrats were leading on the GCB right now, they would never be "acting" like it in public, especially after so many polling errors in the past. Even if the Dems were up by 10, there would still be an entire aura of "is it even real?"

Plainly, these days, because people are so burned by polls, only a Republican lead among polls is to be trusted. Even a Dem is leading, there is still whispers of, "but are they really?"

The Democratic campaigns are probably seeing concerning numbers in their own internals, and are acting accordingly. I would expect for there to be a much more aggressive investment of Democratic time, money, and resources into Republican-leaning districts and states if they truly felt that they held a dominating lead in the Generic Ballot. Instead - aside from the Hofmeister-Stitt rate in Oklahoma and the Oz-Fetterman race in Pennsylvania - they are clearly on the defensive at this point, and are calling in national support for their candidates in states such as Oregon, New Mexico, and now, New York, which should not be in danger for them. I don't think we would be seeing Biden and Obama going to these states if they weren't concerned about those races.

[wbrocks67]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

Quite frankly, even if the Democrats were leading on the GCB right now, they would never be "acting" like it in public, especially after so many polling errors in the past. Even if the Dems were up by 10, there would still be an entire aura of "is it even real?"

Plainly, these days, because people are so burned by polls, only a Republican lead among polls is to be trusted. Even a Dem is leading, there is still whispers of, "but are they really?"

The Democratic campaigns are probably seeing concerning numbers in their own internals, and are acting accordingly. I would expect for there to be a much more aggressive investment of Democratic time, money, and resources into Republican-leaning districts and states if they truly felt that they held a dominating lead in the Generic Ballot. Instead - aside from the Hofmeister-Stitt rate in Oklahoma and the Oz-Fetterman race in Pennsylvania - they are clearly on the defensive at this point, and are calling in national support for their candidates in states such as Oregon, New Mexico, and now, New York, which should not be in danger for them. I don't think we would be seeing Biden and Obama going to these states if they weren't concerned about those races.

Well there was also 2020, where Democrats were kind of fooled into thinking they should go for other GOP districts than they shouldn't have, so whether or not Dems have a lead, I think it's smart just to go for the ones that you absolutely need first and foremost. Even if you have a lead or not.

Oregon is a more specific case with the GOV race, they needed to nationalize it a bit to sink Johnson and scare Dem voters back into Kotek's column. Grisham may be in a bit of trouble, but most of the polls (sans Trafalgar) and the EV don't really indicate that, and Biden may still be relatively popular in New Mexico, so may not be a huge surprise he's going.

Is Biden planning on doing a rally in New York or something? I didn't see that. I saw he did an event with Hochul/Schumer yesterday, but that looked like more of the usual small-time stuff.

[Devils30]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

Quite frankly, even if the Democrats were leading on the GCB right now, they would never be "acting" like it in public, especially after so many polling errors in the past. Even if the Dems were up by 10, there would still be an entire aura of "is it even real?"

Plainly, these days, because people are so burned by polls, only a Republican lead among polls is to be trusted. Even a Dem is leading, there is still whispers of, "but are they really?"

The Democratic campaigns are probably seeing concerning numbers in their own internals, and are acting accordingly. I would expect for there to be a much more aggressive investment of Democratic time, money, and resources into Republican-leaning districts and states if they truly felt that they held a dominating lead in the Generic Ballot. Instead - aside from the Hofmeister-Stitt rate in Oklahoma and the Oz-Fetterman race in Pennsylvania - they are clearly on the defensive at this point, and are calling in national support for their candidates in states such as Oregon, New Mexico, and now, New York, which should not be in danger for them. I don't think we would be seeing Biden and Obama going to these states if they weren't concerned about those races.

Well there was also 2020, where Democrats were kind of fooled into thinking they should go for other GOP districts than they shouldn't have, so whether or not Dems have a lead, I think it's smart just to go for the ones that you absolutely need first and foremost. Even if you have a lead or not.

Oregon is a more specific case with the GOV race, they needed to nationalize it a bit to sink Johnson and scare Dem voters back into Kotek's column. Grisham may be in a bit of trouble, but most of the polls (sans Trafalgar) and the EV don't really indicate that, and Biden may still be relatively popular in New Mexico, so may not be a huge surprise he's going.

Is Biden planning on doing a rally in New York or something? I didn't see that. I saw he did an event with Hochul/Schumer yesterday, but that looked like more of the usual small-time stuff.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1586085207827890177?s=46&t=IQbLk_K4EEYQSm0QtNQP9A

I would like another round of polls. But is NV-1 just another Vegas polling problem? That might be ground zero for low response/transient population.

For NJ-7 I would like some proof, Kean has a lot of Christie’s political hacks around him with plenty of ties to national media for years.

[Mr.Phips]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

Quite frankly, even if the Democrats were leading on the GCB right now, they would never be "acting" like it in public, especially after so many polling errors in the past. Even if the Dems were up by 10, there would still be an entire aura of "is it even real?"

Plainly, these days, because people are so burned by polls, only a Republican lead among polls is to be trusted. Even a Dem is leading, there is still whispers of, "but are they really?"

The Democratic campaigns are probably seeing concerning numbers in their own internals, and are acting accordingly. I would expect for there to be a much more aggressive investment of Democratic time, money, and resources into Republican-leaning districts and states if they truly felt that they held a dominating lead in the Generic Ballot. Instead - aside from the Hofmeister-Stitt rate in Oklahoma and the Oz-Fetterman race in Pennsylvania - they are clearly on the defensive at this point, and are calling in national support for their candidates in states such as Oregon, New Mexico, and now, New York, which should not be in danger for them. I don't think we would be seeing Biden and Obama going to these states if they weren't concerned about those races.

Well there was also 2020, where Democrats were kind of fooled into thinking they should go for other GOP districts than they shouldn't have, so whether or not Dems have a lead, I think it's smart just to go for the ones that you absolutely need first and foremost. Even if you have a lead or not.

You have a point here.  The DCCC should have rushed into FL-27, CA-21, CA-47, and CA-48 in 2020.  They were all Biden districts that could have been saved had the DCCC not been asleep at the switch.

[wbrocks67]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

Quite frankly, even if the Democrats were leading on the GCB right now, they would never be "acting" like it in public, especially after so many polling errors in the past. Even if the Dems were up by 10, there would still be an entire aura of "is it even real?"

Plainly, these days, because people are so burned by polls, only a Republican lead among polls is to be trusted. Even a Dem is leading, there is still whispers of, "but are they really?"

The Democratic campaigns are probably seeing concerning numbers in their own internals, and are acting accordingly. I would expect for there to be a much more aggressive investment of Democratic time, money, and resources into Republican-leaning districts and states if they truly felt that they held a dominating lead in the Generic Ballot. Instead - aside from the Hofmeister-Stitt rate in Oklahoma and the Oz-Fetterman race in Pennsylvania - they are clearly on the defensive at this point, and are calling in national support for their candidates in states such as Oregon, New Mexico, and now, New York, which should not be in danger for them. I don't think we would be seeing Biden and Obama going to these states if they weren't concerned about those races.

Well there was also 2020, where Democrats were kind of fooled into thinking they should go for other GOP districts than they shouldn't have, so whether or not Dems have a lead, I think it's smart just to go for the ones that you absolutely need first and foremost. Even if you have a lead or not.

Oregon is a more specific case with the GOV race, they needed to nationalize it a bit to sink Johnson and scare Dem voters back into Kotek's column. Grisham may be in a bit of trouble, but most of the polls (sans Trafalgar) and the EV don't really indicate that, and Biden may still be relatively popular in New Mexico, so may not be a huge surprise he's going.

Is Biden planning on doing a rally in New York or something? I didn't see that. I saw he did an event with Hochul/Schumer yesterday, but that looked like more of the usual small-time stuff.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1586085207827890177?s=46&t=IQbLk_K4EEYQSm0QtNQP9A

I would like another round of polls. But is NV-1 just another Vegas polling problem? That might be ground zero for low response/transient population.

For NJ-7 I would like some proof, Kean has a lot of Christie’s political hacks around him with plenty of ties to national media for years.

Yeah, NV-01 is a good question. Siena undercounted Dems considerably in their 2018 NV poll, but it's possible that was an anomaly.

I'm unsure about NJ-07 too. Malinowski actually seems to be putting up a good fight. I feel like prior to the last few months, people assumed he was all but dead. He's raised way more than Kean, and the district is pretty educated. I'm not sure where the tangible signs are that he's struggling a lot.

[ProgressiveModerate]

The Political Environment is much more worse then Democrats will admit to themselves.

Consider this: President Biden is going to New York State to save Kathy Hochul and to New Mexico to save Michelle Lujan-Grisham? C'mon! That doesn't pass the smell test.

This reminds me when President Obama campaigned for Pat Quinn in Illinois and Anthony Brown in Maryland during the 2014 Midterms and they both still lost + it wasn't even close in both Races.

I agree with this. Democratic leaders, strategists, and donors certainly are not on the "offensive", and are not acting as if they are leading the Generic Ballot right now. Yet there are still people who insist that Democrats are winning and that they are poised to sweep the elections in a few weeks.

Quite frankly, even if the Democrats were leading on the GCB right now, they would never be "acting" like it in public, especially after so many polling errors in the past. Even if the Dems were up by 10, there would still be an entire aura of "is it even real?"

Plainly, these days, because people are so burned by polls, only a Republican lead among polls is to be trusted. Even a Dem is leading, there is still whispers of, "but are they really?"

The Democratic campaigns are probably seeing concerning numbers in their own internals, and are acting accordingly. I would expect for there to be a much more aggressive investment of Democratic time, money, and resources into Republican-leaning districts and states if they truly felt that they held a dominating lead in the Generic Ballot. Instead - aside from the Hofmeister-Stitt rate in Oklahoma and the Oz-Fetterman race in Pennsylvania - they are clearly on the defensive at this point, and are calling in national support for their candidates in states such as Oregon, New Mexico, and now, New York, which should not be in danger for them. I don't think we would be seeing Biden and Obama going to these states if they weren't concerned about those races.

Well there was also 2020, where Democrats were kind of fooled into thinking they should go for other GOP districts than they shouldn't have, so whether or not Dems have a lead, I think it's smart just to go for the ones that you absolutely need first and foremost. Even if you have a lead or not.

Oregon is a more specific case with the GOV race, they needed to nationalize it a bit to sink Johnson and scare Dem voters back into Kotek's column. Grisham may be in a bit of trouble, but most of the polls (sans Trafalgar) and the EV don't really indicate that, and Biden may still be relatively popular in New Mexico, so may not be a huge surprise he's going.

Is Biden planning on doing a rally in New York or something? I didn't see that. I saw he did an event with Hochul/Schumer yesterday, but that looked like more of the usual small-time stuff.

https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1586085207827890177?s=46&t=IQbLk_K4EEYQSm0QtNQP9A

I would like another round of polls. But is NV-1 just another Vegas polling problem? That might be ground zero for low response/transient population.

For NJ-7 I would like some proof, Kean has a lot of Christie’s political hacks around him with plenty of ties to national media for years.

Yeah, NV-01 is a good question. Siena undercounted Dems considerably in their 2018 NV poll, but it's possible that was an anomaly.

I'm unsure about NJ-07 too. Malinowski actually seems to be putting up a good fight. I feel like prior to the last few months, people assumed he was all but dead. He's raised way more than Kean, and the district is pretty educated. I'm not sure where the tangible signs are that he's struggling a lot.

I mean he did have those scandals.

I think the reason people immediate wrote him off is because Kean almost won against him in a considerably bluer district in what was likely a better year for Ds than 2022 will be. At face value, people would have every reason to believe Kean would easily win. Dynamics in individual races and matchups can change across cycles though.

I'd say Lean R seems fair.