2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

What may be the missing final key, especially in GA, is also the 9% of voters who also are "unidentified" in terms of race right now. Wish we had more data on how they may be factoring out

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

The simple answer…their model is trash. A model is not a fact, raw turnout data is. Tom Bonier has long been a Democratic hack as well which also helps explain the bias.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

This is exactly what I've been saying for months. 

Polling errors don't systematically miss Republican voters.  They systematically miss new and infrequent voters. 

Given the new registration trends after Dobbs, this group seems likely to weigh more toward liberal and independent woman this year than conservative WWC.

[Ferguson97]

So that's two major pollsters showing a D+5 shift in the GCB in just 1 week.

It would be funny last week's shift to Republicans was an anomaly.

[wbrocks67]

So that's two major pollsters showing a D+5 shift in the GCB in just 1 week.

It would be funny last week's shift to Republicans was an anomaly.

And I'm not even saying it has to be reported, because it is only two pollsters. But the deafening silence from any pundit about either poll is not surprising. Given if they had moved farther right after last week, you know it would not be the same reaction.

Much like how the NBC poll on Sunday got ignored as well, because it didn't follow the "GOP momentum!" narrative they were trying to push.

[2016]

So that's two major pollsters showing a D+5 shift in the GCB in just 1 week.

It would be funny last week's shift to Republicans was an anomaly.

LOL,
Sabato would not have moved the CA-27 (Mike Garcia) into Lean R if D's were ahead in the GCB.

Ignore the Generic Tests.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

The simple answer…their model is trash. A model is not a fact, raw turnout data is. Tom Bonier has long been a Democratic hack as well which also helps explain the bias.

Not only is the Target Smart Model Trash. The Generic Congressional Polls are also TRASH. Why would Sabato move CA-27 (Mike Garcia) into Lean R Column if D's were ahead by 5 Nationally. This makes literally no sense at all.

[wbrocks67]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

[2016]

The Economist/YouGov National Sample is D+13!!!

Give me a break! What are they cooking here! We are not having a D+13 Electorate.

[2016]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

The simple answer…their model is trash. A model is not a fact, raw turnout data is. Tom Bonier has long been a Democratic hack as well which also helps explain the bias.

Not only is the Target Smart Model Trash. The Generic Congressional Polls are also TRASH. Why would Sabato move CA-27 (Mike Garcia) into Lean R Column if D's were ahead by 5 Nationally. This makes literally no sense at all.

Because they made the ratings move before this new set of GCB polls came out?  Sabato would have needed a...crystal ball.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1585261022490787840

You saw my map, turnout is higher...in GOP areas. Unless you think that coalitions flipped overnight and now Detroit is the most Republican part of Michigan, I don't see any good evidence for these claims. And his logic is still using very flawed specials, but the specials overperformances were all still low turnout relative to the midterms in areas where Dems can be expected to do better among high propensity voters. I have heard zero arguments against this. The ONLY possible argument would be Peltola, but even then she had HUGE crossover support and still does.

I have a hard time squaring this information. On one hand, he’s not wrong in certain states like Michigan and Georgia that numbers look good for democrats based on modeled partisanship. On the other hand, the map above and other target smart graphics make it clear that rural turnout is up and white turnout is up in these same states (yes, even in Georgia, at the expense of Hispanics/Asians). I will note that those are two states without partisan registration, so it’s possible that their model is garbage and way too democrat-friendly. This can’t explain it entirely though.

The simple answer…their model is trash. A model is not a fact, raw turnout data is. Tom Bonier has long been a Democratic hack as well which also helps explain the bias.

Not only is the Target Smart Model Trash. The Generic Congressional Polls are also TRASH. Why would Sabato move CA-27 (Mike Garcia) into Lean R Column if D's were ahead by 5 Nationally. This makes literally no sense at all.

Because they made the ratings move before this new set of GCB polls came out?  Sabato would have needed a...crystal ball.

Democrats holding the House is an absolute PIPE DREAM. The House is ULTRA-SAFE R.

[Lief 🗽]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

Why do you only care about unrealistic party ID samples when the share of *Democrats* is unreasonably large?

[TML]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

Why do you only care about unrealistic party ID samples when the share of *Democrats* is unreasonably large?

This individual has a strong pro-R bias, that's why.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

[wbrocks67]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

The last RV samples for Siena (tied), ABC (R+1) NBC (D+1) and CBS (D+1) were all pretty closely aligned with a neutral environment. Fox had D+3 too.

[2016]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

Now we have the answer about that D+13 Sample. Economist/YouGov have taken that apparently out from the Target Smart Early Vote Model. That makes sense then. It's all EV Samples.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am giddy about TX Beto is only 4 pts behind Abbott he is closer than Crist

[2016]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

The last RV samples for Siena (tied), ABC (R+1) NBC (D+1) and CBS (D+1) were all pretty closely aligned with a neutral environment. Fox had D+3 too.

wbrocks,
It's a neutral to lean R Environment. It's not a D-lean Environment like YouGov & Big Villages are suggesting.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

The last RV samples for Siena (tied), ABC (R+1) NBC (D+1) and CBS (D+1) were all pretty closely aligned with a neutral environment. Fox had D+3 too.

wbrocks,
It's a neutral to lean R Environment. It's not a D-lean Environment like YouGov & Big Villages are suggesting.

Lol we still have to vote, lol we still have to vote, lol we still have to vote , 3* now

[Unelectable Bystander]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

The last RV samples for Siena (tied), ABC (R+1) NBC (D+1) and CBS (D+1) were all pretty closely aligned with a neutral environment. Fox had D+3 too.

And those I am putting more stock in because they have supposedly more robust methods

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GCB is D +5 if D4P is to be believed it's supposed to be R +6


https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322587072368641?s=20&t=hhBujPEBaBdEGOEUCs6rdg

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Big Village now the third poll today to show Dems up at least 4

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1585322952924729344

What's the Sample? If it's above D+5 trash it.

This is insanity. Nobody can even agree that D+13 sample is problematic lol. That big village poll is weighted by the CENSUS.

I’ll gladly give my honest view on the state of the environment but I’ve maintained this entire time that morning consult and big village are useless. My preferences are Siena/Ny times, Emerson, ABC, NBC, CBS, even CNN/Fox/Quinnipiac.

The last RV samples for Siena (tied), ABC (R+1) NBC (D+1) and CBS (D+1) were all pretty closely aligned with a neutral environment. Fox had D+3 too.

And those I am putting more stock in because they have supposedly more robust methods

Lol do you not trust voting it's good to go by polls but it's not the end all be all

[Person Man]

The polls suck this year. Literally anything can happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The polls suck this year. Literally anything can happen.

Maybe it's selective memory on my part, but I really don't recall another year with such extreme variance in the polls.