2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[MikeIrvine]

FWIW, Civiqs has remained steady

https://twitter.com/DrewLinzer/status/1585671635851280385

How did their 2018 tracker look?

Couldn't find a link. They were founded spring 2018 though so the daily tracker may not have been around the

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1585720386959790081

How do people still take RCP seriously?

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1585708567344009216

Time to read the tea leaves, everyone.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1585708567344009216

Time to read the tea leaves, everyone.

I'm shocked Greg Price of all people is posting this, considering it makes Dems look.... not bad.

[philly09]

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1585708567344009216

Time to read the tea leaves, everyone.

What seat is Schumer referring to at the beginning where he says "Looks like we're in danger with that seat. I thought we weren't, but it's close"?  

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/greg_price11/status/1585708567344009216

Time to read the tea leaves, everyone.

What seat is Schumer referring to at the beginning where he says "Looks like we're endanger with that seat. I thought we weren't, but it's close"? 

Could be Arizona? Either that or New Hampshire, but probably the former. It's tightened significantly over the last few weeks, and reports are that private polling is showing the same trend.

[philly09]

Extended version, Schumer claims "we're going downhill in Georgia"

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748

[Devils30]

The ballot return numbers in Nevada are not looking bad for Dems.

[Devils30]

Extended version, Schumer claims "we're going downhill in Georgia"

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748

I don't think Walker is likely at all to win without a runoff. Warnock will dominate the black vote and Walker will struggle to get enough of the white college vote around Atlanta to get 50% or more. GA also never polls as well for Dems as PA so it might be false concern and confidence on both ends.

[Lief 🗽]

I seriously doubt Schumer knows very much more than we do at this point.

[soundchaser]

I seriously doubt Schumer knows very much more than we do at this point.

Schumer has access to a much different set of polls than we do. (Remember how the Biden campaign said "we have polls showing races are closer than you'd think" and they turned out to be right?)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I seriously doubt Schumer knows very much more than we do at this point.

Schumer has access to a much different set of polls than we do. (Remember how the Biden campaign said "we have polls showing races are closer than you'd think" and they turned out to be right?)

Exactly.

[Ferguson97]

Pretty funny that Schumer's anecdote is pretty much the opposite of the consensus of those states.

[MikeIrvine]

Pretty funny that Schumer's anecdote is pretty much the opposite of the consensus of those states.

I took something diff away. If that's today, then it kinda lines up w 538 polling averages.

CCM got ahead and gaining a little momentum. Fetterman not hit too bad. Warnock lead shrinking a lot (glut on R leaning pollsters).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Cross-posted:

https://twitter.com/RiegerReport/status/1585728117200543748?

Hmm.

The first state is Arizona.  There's a point where you can make out one of the women saying "Kelly's a nice man" right before Schumer comments about being in danger in that race.  There's also a bit toward the end when they're talking about Georgia where Schumer says they (Warnock) have a small lead, but it's not a Democratic state.

[Pericles]

The ballot return numbers in Nevada are not looking bad for Dems.

That's good news. It would make sense for Laxalt to win but I'd expect a Republican who is tied in Nevada polls to lose. It was never a guaranteed pickup but it was also stupid for people to deny the possibility of a Biden +2% state flipping.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The ballot return numbers in Nevada are not looking bad for Dems.

They’re reminiscent of the 2018 numbers, which is very good.

[soundchaser]

Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

[Devils30]

Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

The rurals can only do much for Rs in NV...and AZ.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ignore inside Advanctage and TRAFALGAR POLL

[soundchaser]

Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

The rurals can only do much for Rs in NV...and AZ.

Depends on the turnout differential. Clark needs to come in with MUCH larger mail-in ballot numbers before I'm totally comfortable.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Not sure I buy any of that. I don’t think he’s lying but I doubt those things are true and that he has actual knowledge of them. GA sounds like pushing that narrative just to work on turnout. PA sounds like he’s trying to convince the average voter that the neighbor down the street hasn’t turned on Fetterman so you shouldn’t either.

[Minnesota Mike]

Caveat on Nevada: turnout is VERY low at the moment, so it wouldn't take much to turn things around, especially if the rurals start picking up steam. But things do look good as of today.

The rurals can only do much for Rs in NV...and AZ.

Depends on the turnout differential. Clark needs to come in with MUCH larger mail-in ballot numbers before I'm totally comfortable.

One thing to remember, you can vote by mail for the next 12 days in NV counting today, early voting ends in 8. If trends hold Dems should dominate those last 4 days.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure I buy any of that. I don’t think he’s lying but I doubt those things are true and that he has actual knowledge of them. GA sounds like pushing that narrative just to work on turnout. PA sounds like he’s trying to convince the average voter that the neighbor down the street hasn’t turned on Fetterman so you shouldn’t either.

Also, the fact that he seemed so *surprised* by AZ being competitive this year tells me his 'internal' data is about as reliable as the insider reports in my signature

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not sure I buy any of that. I don’t think he’s lying but I doubt those things are true and that he has actual knowledge of them. GA sounds like pushing that narrative just to work on turnout. PA sounds like he’s trying to convince the average voter that the neighbor down the street hasn’t turned on Fetterman so you shouldn’t either.

Also, the fact that he seemed so *surprised* by AZ being competitive this year tells me his 'internal' data is about as reliable as the insider reports in my signature

Lol it's still a 303 map I doubt Oz, Masters, LAXALT and Johnson won due to fact Evers, Whitmer, Polis and Shapiro are ahead common sense and Vance and Budd are only 3 pts AHEAD