2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Pericles]

We want Tenney! We want Tenney! We want Tenney! We want Tenney!

And we want Christy

Tenney is weaker than Smith though.

Both of them are horrible candidates.

NY-22 is way, way, way more Republican than CA-25 is Democratic. Tenney f#cked up by a comparatively much larger amount.

Biden may have won CA-25 by more than Trump won NY-22 though.

[Pericles]

Those ratings actually look too favourable to Democrats. If 2022 is a normal midterm so either a wave or close to it, then I doubt Republicans have much trouble picking up the Senate. They could run the table and get 54, but Georgia's relentless trend regardless of the national environment and New Hampshire's stronger Democratic lean will be the biggest challenges for them.

[Pericles]

https://twitter.com/mattholt33/status/1448250267934330883

I'd never noticed it before, but does Marco Rubio have really big ears?

[Pericles]

Just so you know, 538 has Democrats averaging the exact same 3 point House lead they got last year. You could easily adjust it to be a narrow Republican lead, or just count on the generic ballot being a lagging indicator compared to presidential approval. So far, it's better than the 39% and 7 point deficit 2018 Republicans were recording at this point, but that doesn't mean they'll retain the House.

[Pericles]

Just so you know, 538 has Democrats averaging the exact same 3 point House lead they got last year. You could easily adjust it to be a narrow Republican lead, or just count on the generic ballot being a lagging indicator compared to presidential approval. So far, it's better than the 39% and 7 point deficit 2018 Republicans were recording at this point, but that doesn't mean they'll retain the House.

The issue with this is that it's hard to imagine notional 2020 results aren't a Republican House majority already.

You're wishcasting a bit, that is not at all certain. Sure it could happen, but it's not currently a sure thing.

[Pericles]

NRCC poll of 85 "battleground" congressional districts-

GCB:
Republicans 43%
Democrats 40%

Biden approval: 45/51 (down from 51/45 in July)

http://www.nrcc.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/NRCC-October-Battleground-Memo-FINAL.pdf

What are these 85 districts?  There are literally probably only 45 Dems in anything close to battleground districts.

The document doesn't say, which suggests that those districts lean Republican more than the nation or the likely House tipping point. Furthermore, while it boasting about a 6-point swing from the 'start of the cycle' sounds good, that does not sound like a comparison with the 2020 margins in those districts. Instead, because Biden's approval was quite high at that point, their polls then may have suggested something like a 2018-style national environment, we do not know. The demographic data does look concerning, but again there is not enough information. So this is a publicity stunt that gives us hardly any useful information.

[Pericles]

Bidens Job Approval is under water in Safe Democratic Districts like Frank Mrvan (IN-1). Democrats will still hold that District BUT him underwater there doesn't bode very well for 2022.

I told you it was a sleeper race, I wouldn't be surprised to see that seat flip actually.

[Pericles]

Damn the wipeout will be brutal if Republicans get the same PV margin as 2018 Democrats.

[Pericles]

Damn the wipeout will be brutal if Republicans get the same PV margin as 2018 Democrats.

I’d hope Biden would be forced to resign at anything worse than R+40 in the House.  You would be getting to the point where Democrats were just a minor party.

Democrats haven’t had that few seats in nearly 100 years.

No and he could get re-elected even if it's a wave, that's usually happens. Trump didn't have to resign for the 2018 wave and he could have won 2020 for sure. Plus, Kamala Harris would clearly be a weaker candidate.

[Pericles]

(A-) rated Trafalgar Group*

https://www.thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/COSA-National-Issues-Full-Report-0209.pdf
1,073   LV   

R 54%
D 42%

If the gold standard says R+12, that means a bigger red wave than 2010. Thanks, DNC, for choosing Biden over Bernie.

If Bernie had been nominated*, 2022 wouldn't be a red wave because it would be President Trump's six-year itch midterm. That's not better.

*A decision the voters make, not the DNC.

[Pericles]

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.

If you don't assume that polls are underestimating Republicans nationwide, there is a real chance Democrats retain the House (IF the polls do not swing against them in the final weeks). Wow.

[Pericles]

That does show why Democrats are favored in the Senate though. New Hampshire obviously isn't happening, or any other safer seats. Kelly and Fetterman have decent leads so Republicans need significant polling errors to beat them. Georgia also is unlikely to flip and Warnock is moving ahead. That's 50 seats right there.

[Pericles]

Republicans should be getting nervous that Democrats continue to cling to a generic ballot lead, this keeps them in contention for keeping the majority. Republicans are late for a surge like in 2014, they are cutting it close.

[Pericles]

This message to Democratic voters is very clear imo, Biden promises Roe codfication WILL happen in January 2023

[Pericles]

The ballot return numbers in Nevada are not looking bad for Dems.

That's good news. It would make sense for Laxalt to win but I'd expect a Republican who is tied in Nevada polls to lose. It was never a guaranteed pickup but it was also stupid for people to deny the possibility of a Biden +2% state flipping.