2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[wbrocks67]

Idk if this is the right thread to make this observation, but does anyone else feel like we really hit a brick wall with the state polling in the last week or so? Like there's been next to nothing coming out, even from the garbage pollsters.

Yep, also probably because we were being inundated with mostly Emerson and Trafalgar and they've also slowed down quite a bit.

Also, I guess NYT/Siena is not happening this season besides their national poll.

[wbrocks67]

Latest Morning Consult tracker has D+3, 48-45. Down slightly from last week's D+5 (49-44)

[It’s so Joever]

GCB showing Rs up again in RCP. I TOLD YOU ALL THIS WOULD BE 2014.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

GCB showing Rs up again in RCP. I TOLD YOU ALL THIS WOULD BE 2014.

[GeorgiaModerate]

GCB showing Rs up again in RCP. I TOLD YOU ALL THIS WOULD BE 2014.

Guess what?  D's are up 10 in the GM aggregator!

...which doesn't exist, meaning it has exactly as much credibility as RCP's.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A bit old, but Navigator Research had D 49, R 43 from Sep. 22-26 (997 RV).

https://navigatorresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Navigator-Toplines-09.27.2022.pdf

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

You don't remember when Democrats were leading the GCB by 15 in October 2014 and it was a big shock to everyone when they lost control of the Senate?

No?

Because that didn't happen. The Daily Kos of all people said the GOP had a 90% chance of control. Jesus Horatio Christ.

[kwabbit]

Idk if this is the right thread to make this observation, but does anyone else feel like we really hit a brick wall with the state polling in the last week or so? Like there's been next to nothing coming out, even from the garbage pollsters.

Pollsters are cowards. They don’t want criticism if they get it wrong again so they’re just skipping the race entirely. We’ve gotten a Trump vs. Steven Segal poll in the last two weeks, but not a PA Sen poll.

One would think NYT/Siena would do at least a set of state polls because they hype themselves up a bit, but it seems like they’re just doing a few GCB polls. Quinnipiac is at like 25% volume, Monmouth at like 50%, ABC and NBC skipping entirely. At least Fox is still trying.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

You don't remember when Democrats were leading the GCB by 15 in October 2014 and it was a big shock to everyone when they lost control of the Senate?

No?

Because that didn't happen. The Daily Kos of all people said the GOP had a 90% chance of control. Jesus Horatio Christ.

But there were still results that were unexpected. Kay Hagan losing, Ernst winning by high single digits instead of low SD, Pat Roberts winning by dd, Paul LePage winning, etc

[Gracile]

Cook moved OR-06 to Tossup:

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1579874136591306754

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Idk if this is the right thread to make this observation, but does anyone else feel like we really hit a brick wall with the state polling in the last week or so? Like there's been next to nothing coming out, even from the garbage pollsters.

Pollsters are cowards. They don’t want criticism if they get it wrong again so they’re just skipping the race entirely. We’ve gotten a Trump vs. Steven Segal poll in the last two weeks, but not a PA Sen poll.

Given how every single poll anymore is immediately discredited or derided as junk, regardless of the outlet, I don't blame pollsters one bit

[philly09]

Big Village, LV

D:50

R:45

[wbrocks67]

Morning Consult/POLITICO back up to D+4, 46-42. Was D+3 last week and D+2 the prior week.

[windjammer]

The dems' lead is widening right?

[wbrocks67]

The dems' lead is widening right?

Kind of static, I guess?

Morning Consult/POLITICO is up this week
Big Village is up this week
Morning COnsult midterm tracker slightly down
Zogby is up
Rasmussen is down

we'll see what YouGov/Economist and Reuters/Ipsos have to say

[wbrocks67]

YouGov/Economist
RV: D+2 (46-44)
LV: D+2 (48-46)

LV was D+1 last week. R+1 prior week.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/szo0yco18u/econTabReport.pdf

[Gracile]

NYT/Siena is in the field with another national poll now, per NYT's "The Tilt" newsletter.

[wbrocks67]

NYT/Siena is in the field with another national poll now, per NYT's "The Tilt" newsletter.

Disappointed to see that Nate/NYT just seemed to ditch house AND state polling at this point.

[Young Conservative]

NYT/Siena is in the field with another national poll now, per NYT's "The Tilt" newsletter.

Disappointed to see that Nate/NYT just seemed to ditch house AND state polling at this point.

From a business perspective, I guess it makes sense. Let's be real, the people waiting around for house/state polls from the NYT....definitely already read the NYT anyway.

[wbrocks67]

NYT/Siena is in the field with another national poll now, per NYT's "The Tilt" newsletter.

Disappointed to see that Nate/NYT just seemed to ditch house AND state polling at this point.

From a business perspective, I guess it makes sense. Let's be real, the people waiting around for house/state polls from the NYT....definitely already read the NYT anyway.

I get that it's an expensive venture, but I would imagine the click rates for their polls are still pretty high.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1580225262222192641

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1580225262222192641

One of these things is not like the other lol...

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1580225262222192641

One of these things is not like the other lol...

Getting a tad weird

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1580225262222192641

One of these things is not like the other lol...

If you are referring to Oklahoma I think it's just standard protocol to move a race into Likely after the other party leads in three straight credible polls.

[wbrocks67]

Reuters/Ipsos has flipped back to D+4, this week 36-32.

I'm sure next week it will flip back D+1