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Author Topic: 2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 166617 times)
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« on: May 02, 2021, 05:32:55 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP selects this dream team:
Speaker: Marjorie Taylor Greene
Majority Leader: Lauren Boebert
Majority Whip: Matt Gaetz
Caucus Chair: Madison Cawthorn
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #1 on: May 02, 2021, 06:15:29 PM »

I wouldn't be surprised if the GOP selects this dream team:
Speaker: Marjorie Taylor Greene
Majority Leader: Lauren Boebert
Majority Whip: Matt Gaetz
Caucus Chair: Madison Cawthorn

You know a majority of the GOP caucus (& in the case of the Speakership, all of it or nearly all of it, depending on just how big their majority is) would actually have to actively elect them to serve in those positions, right? Say what one may about the House Republicans, but I'd personally be very surprised if the same caucus that literally just voted 2 months ago to retain Liz Cheney in her role by a vote of 145-61 would elect any of these people to any position in their leadership ranks.

Remember in 2010 when the Tea party primaried out all the moderates? It is possible that the number of people in the (as John Boehner puts it) crazy caucus could increase.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #2 on: June 27, 2022, 06:17:10 PM »

So the polls are saying "we have a chance?"

No, they are saying SnowLabrador might be off by 50 house seats instead of 70. So the Dems are above 200 at the end of the day. The Senate is still very much up in the air.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #3 on: August 07, 2022, 04:43:41 AM »



just another data point that disproves the whole 'democrats are the extreme' ones that Rs like to push.

Well the wild card is how much that changed from pre-Dobbs.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2022, 11:17:50 PM »



But OSR told me CA Economy Bad!
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2022, 02:09:09 AM »

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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2022, 02:14:21 AM »



Well to be fair when a party starts saying that the polls are junk, this usually means they are headed to a defeat

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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2022, 10:04:39 AM »


Now this seems a bit cocky to me, that instead of trying to just shore up who they need to, they're still focusing on Biden double digit districts, especially ones like Flores'.

I mean the CLF is basically the Incumbent Protection Service
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2022, 11:59:08 PM »

The most comparable generic ballots so far are 2002 (unprecedented incumbent victory) or 2014 (humiliating incumbent defeat).


Stunning how so many GOP pundits thought in 2006 the GOP still could keep the house cause those numbers look apocalyptic. The 2006 poll numbers always seem stunning, like how did we poll that bad going into the midtmers

Literally everything that could go wrong in 2006 went wrong.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2022, 12:14:56 PM »

Wow, YouGov/Economist up to D+8 this week, 46-38.

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kqp1ntoj7v/econTabReport.pdf

Was D+5 (44-39) last week

r+3 oR mOrE iNeViTaBlE
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #10 on: September 06, 2022, 03:25:52 PM »


Most interesting is who is not getting any spending.

Are they giving up on AZ?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #11 on: September 06, 2022, 05:36:07 PM »

Three millions of dollars being poured into Ohio in a race that Vance was never in any serious risk of losing is stunning.

Apparently the SLF has a different evaluation of the race than you do.

Internal polling is most of the time less accurate than public polling. Mitch McConnell does not have much more useful intel on this race than we do.

In the case of Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, and other former swing states that have trended quickly, he might be tethered to a time when Ohio was close to the national environment, not the current reality when it's significantly to the right of it. As it stands, Vance will probably win from partisans coming home in the last few months. But McConnell might think that wouldn't be a factor if he doesn't hold Ohio as a strong lean-R state at worst.

I am skeptical this is true.

It's entirely possible he knows Masters has something extremely bad (he asked people to 'not ask my former classmates what I wrote and said when I was in school') that he knows will come out.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2022, 09:48:40 AM »

Dems now leading 45.0-43.9 on the 538 average. Highest lead since mid-November 2021 in margin and highest percentage since October 3, 2021.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2022, 11:50:59 AM »

Republicans up 3 in Marist since the last poll taken literally on Dobbs day
Seems more like they're herding cats on undecideds.


The Dems were up 48-44. Hardly a bad poll, TBH.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #14 on: September 09, 2022, 03:40:07 AM »

Dems now +1.2 (44.9-43.7) on 538 Average, highest since early November 2021. 44.9% is the highest the Democrats have been at since early October 2021, while the Republicans' 43.7% is the lowest it's been since late January 2022.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2022, 09:45:25 PM »

Harvard-Harris GCB is at D+2, 51/49.  Their last poll in July was 50-50.  They never have undecideds; they must exclude them from their calculations.

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/HHP_Sept2022_KeyFindings.pdf

Sep. 7-8, 1854 RV.

They also have Biden's approval as -13, which is weird.

I mean Dems have been leading on the GCB with Biden as low as -12.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #16 on: September 13, 2022, 12:04:00 PM »

Dems break 45.0% on the GCB, +1.3.

Highest percentage average since October 4, 2021
Highest margin since November 13, 2021
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2022, 07:44:10 PM »

2016, how do you not believe the top line but think the crosstabs are the complete ironclad truth?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2022, 01:14:06 AM »

Democrats are running even in a poll that shows them down 20 points on the economy and your conclusion is they've overplayed their hand on abortion
Many Voters will be ticked off E-Day Voters especially if they hear 24/7 Abortion, Abortion, Abortion.

How do you witness the Kansas referendum and the Alaska special election and still believe this lmao

Because low-propensity voters go for Republicans now since it isn't a Presidential election year. Of course they will make a massive exception and all turn out in November.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #19 on: September 20, 2022, 09:10:56 PM »

In this context of the War in Ukraine, a lot of Democrats running this year are Putin's pipeline partners.

Even three months after Putin started to amass troops at the border with Ukraine in March of last year, Senator Patty Murray and Congressman Tim Ryan received campaign contributions from a Democratic lobbyist called Vincent Roberti whom Axios reported to be working Nord Stream 2, the Russian-backed natural gas pipeline into Europe, that garnered bipartisan opposition.

https://www.fec.gov/data/receipts/individual-contributions/?contributor_name=Roberti%2C+Vincent&two_year_transaction_period=2022

https://www.axios.com/2021/12/03/nord-stream-2-lobbyist-donations-schumer

In January 2022, Murray, along with the vast majority of her party, has voted against the Defending Ukraine Sovereignty Act of 2022 that would impose sanctions on Nord Stream Pipeline and we all know what happened after the vote : Russia began his invasion in Ukraine.

https://www.murray.senate.gov/senator-murray-statement-on-nord-stream-2-vote/

So the Democratic Party has emboldened Putin and a vote for a Democratic Congress is a vote for a Russian takeover of Ukraine and then, likely, the next-door country of Moldova. That's the reason why a GOP congress is the right course to win the War in Ukraine by taking advantage of all of America's sources of energy so Europeans can expect to rely on imports of American energy to heat this winter and by reinforcing our military to counter Russia's military strength and grant Ukraine with all the weaponry needed to win this War.

Have you considered taking a job in opposition research for the GOP? I don't actually mean that as an insult, this is actually very comprehensive work.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #20 on: September 22, 2022, 06:47:24 PM »


Slide 13: "Trump image is now positive; fostered by double-digit positive swings among college-educated and upper-income voters".  They have Trump at 48.8% favorable, 48.7% unfavorable.  I'm just a wee bit inclined to doubt this. Wink

That's good news for Dems then, right? Tied in a clear R NUT push poll?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2022, 12:35:53 AM »

All of the ratings sites are just reacting to polls. They have no more clue than all of us but won’t admit it.

I mean afaik multiple of these are now literally being run by former Atlas posters. Their purpose is to be a credible aggregator who is accessible to a layperson, not necessarily to be the best aggregator in the world. 

Wait what?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #22 on: September 24, 2022, 06:46:40 PM »

Dems GCB number (45.1%) highest since June 2021.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #23 on: September 25, 2022, 01:58:30 AM »

The ABC/WaPo poll is horrible for Democrats. They did have R+10 in their last poll a few months ago, so I suppose you could say this is a big shift. But Biden at 39% and R+1 in September means that we're still on track for a significant red wave (+30 in House, +2 in Senate).

What?

538 estimates a gain of only ~10 seats with a projected margin of about 2.3%. That's clearly nonsense but it doesn't add up to 30 seats at 1%.
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
theflyingmongoose
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,294
Norway


Political Matrix
E: 3.41, S: -1.29

P
« Reply #24 on: September 25, 2022, 04:13:02 PM »

R+1, with a 9 point D shift: ITS RED WAVE, R+30 INCOMING

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