2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

NPR/Marist is out with a new poll:

RV: D+2 (46-44)
Definitely Voting: D+3 (48-45)

Last month, it was D+4 (48-44) with RV.

Among RV, top issues:
37% Inflation
28% Preserving Democracy
13% Immigration
12% Abortion
10% Health Care

Marist with only D+2? God help us

[wbrocks67]

NPR/Marist is out with a new poll:

RV: D+2 (46-44)
Definitely Voting: D+3 (48-45)

Last month, it was D+4 (48-44) with RV.

Among RV, top issues:
37% Inflation
28% Preserving Democracy
13% Immigration
12% Abortion
10% Health Care

Marist with only D+2? God help us

Their final poll in 2018 (50-44) actually underestimated Ds by 2.5%. Their last poll in 2020 was in August so can't really compare there.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1578168091107803136?s=20&t=Ef1ZHyA...

Well that might be one of the creepiest fundraising texts I've ever seen...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1578168091107803136

Democratic fundraising emails: Hi, it's Nancy Pelosi. Sorry to bother you, but could we have $5 for Tim Ryan's campaign? Pretty please with sugar on top?

Republican fundraising emails: Listen f-ckwad, either make a donation to Donald Trump's legal defense fund or we're putting your credit card info on Reddit. You have 30 minutes.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1578168091107803136

Democratic fundraising emails: Hi, it's Nancy Pelosi. Sorry to bother you, but could we have $5 for Tim Ryan's campaign? Pretty please with sugar on top?

Republican fundraising emails: Listen f-ckwad, either make a donation to Donald Trump's legal defense fund or we're putting your credit card info on Reddit. You have 30 minutes.

Democratic Fundraising: Nancy here, if I don't receive a donation within the next five minutes the PLAAF very well might shoot down my plane

Republican Fundraising: Donald Trump is literally inside your house and he is PISSED donate now to save your homestead and stop Donald from taking your family hostage

[TwinGeeks99]

That does show why Democrats are favored in the Senate though. New Hampshire obviously isn't happening, or any other safer seats. Kelly and Fetterman have decent leads so Republicans need significant polling errors to beat them. Georgia also is unlikely to flip and Warnock is moving ahead. That's 50 seats right there.

A big reminder though is that two years from now, Democrats face an incredibly tough map with so many of their own seats to defend. If the Senate sticks at 50-50 after this election, it's going to be very difficult for the Dems to hold the Senate after 2024.

[wbrocks67]

Unsurprisingly, Rasmussen is back to R+4 on the GCB, 47-43

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_oct07

[Devout Centrist]

Republicans Expand Congressional Lead to 4 Points: Sponsored by Miranda Devine's LAPTOP FROM HELL: Hunter Biden, Big Tech, and the Dirty Secrets the President Tried to Hide

lmfao

[soundchaser]

Unsurprisingly, Rasmussen is back to R+4 on the GCB, 47-43

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/generic_congressional_ballot_oct07

Rasmussen's final 2018 poll had Republicans leading by 1.

[Minnesota Mike]

Republicans Expand Congressional Lead to 4 Points: Sponsored by Miranda Devine's LAPTOP FROM HELL: Hunter Biden, Big Tech, and the Dirty Secrets the President Tried to Hide

lmfao

Or check out their unhinged conspiracy laden Twitter account. They are not just a bad pollster, they are stop the steal nutjobs who should not be taken seriously.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I have a gut feeling Ryan, Beasley, DEMINGS are gonna win despite the polls in FL it's called reverse Bradley effect we saw it in 2008 with Dean Martin and Chambliss and Chambliss won Ds didn't put money into GA , that's why GA is blue now it was changing ever since 2008, and Michelle Nunn was completetive and Jason Carter in 2014 and it's 20 percent blk in FL, NC and GA, and I will be silly to put FL, GA and NC as Lean R and we are gonna be scoreboard watching anyways, SIEGAL can upset Scott because Scott unlike Sununu has been in office forever it's called voting not polls it's a 50/45  percent and 65/60 M D vote Eday anyways and we won 80/75 M in 2020

SD, IN, KY are wavy R states that will give us 55 and 56 with McMillin

[GALeftist]

An update from RepublicanCuratedPolls – Tom Bevan has now (tearfully, one assumes) accepted that Warnock is favored, but to compensate, he has for some reason decided that a 2 point (I can't put enough quotation marks around the following word so I won't try) "adjusted" Kelly lead is actually a Masters lead.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1578453206517940224?cxt=HHwWgICg0YG15e...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1578453206517940224?cxt=HHwWgICg0YG15e...

Dobbs will save Cheri Beasley but it won't be enough to save Tina Kotek? Please. I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about OR and I could see it flipping in a neutral year but not if NC Senate is voting democratic

[wesmoorenerd]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1578453206517940224?cxt=HHwWgICg0YG15e...

Most of these I buy, but I still think Garcia goes down this year.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1578453206517940224?cxt=HHwWgICg0YG15e...

Dobbs will save Cheri Beasley but it won't be enough to save Tina Kotek? Please. I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about OR and I could see it flipping in a neutral year but not if NC Senate is voting democratic

2014 has to be a Democratic wave because that was the only way the Alaska Governor’s race could be competitive.  I mean, how could Republicans lose a Governor’s race in Alaska in the same year where they gain a Senate seat in Colorado?  Clearly Mark Udall is a lock to win re-election!

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1578453206517940224?cxt=HHwWgICg0YG15e...

Dobbs will save Cheri Beasley but it won't be enough to save Tina Kotek? Please. I'm feeling pretty pessimistic about OR and I could see it flipping in a neutral year but not if NC Senate is voting democratic

2014 has to be a Democratic wave because that was the only way the Alaska Governor’s race could be competitive.  I mean, how could Republicans lose a Governor’s race in Alaska in the same year where they gain a Senate seat in Colorado?  Clearly Mark Udall is a lock to win re-election!

They lost to someone who had an I next to his name, not a D. And I've always maintained weird results can happen(I mean I think Golden and Peltola will win and that Laura Kelly is not DOA) But in NC, the Republican candidate would have to be terrible and that's not the case. Both people are running excellent campaigns which is rare but in NC which Leans R the Republican will win in that scenario.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1578472602401546240

[ProgressiveModerate]

An update from RepublicanCuratedPolls – Tom Bevan has now (tearfully, one assumes) accepted that Warnock is favored, but to compensate, he has for some reason decided that a 2 point (I can't put enough quotation marks around the following word so I won't try) "adjusted" Kelly lead is actually a Masters lead.

Yeah that's just screams mega-hack. Sure Masters could def win, but if you've already "unskewed" the polls from a particularly selective sample and they still show Kelly leading how is that justification to have Masters winning in the no tossups map?

The other issue that I have with RCP is they rate everything remotely competitive as tossups all the way till election day, and it just seems like they do it to have more leeway. NH and WI are not both simultaneously tossups this cycle. They literally have 10 governorships rated as "tossups"

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

An update from RepublicanCuratedPolls – Tom Bevan has now (tearfully, one assumes) accepted that Warnock is favored, but to compensate, he has for some reason decided that a 2 point (I can't put enough quotation marks around the following word so I won't try) "adjusted" Kelly lead is actually a Masters lead.

Yeah that's just screams mega-hack. Sure Masters could def win, but if you've already "unskewed" the polls from a particularly selective sample and they still show Kelly leading how is that justification to have Masters winning in the no tossups map?

The other issue that I have with RCP is they rate everything remotely competitive as tossups all the way till election day, and it just seems like they do it to have more leeway. NH and WI are not both simultaneously tossups this cycle. They literally have 10 governorships rated as "tossups"

Again, it's stupid to unskew polls that from states/districts that were not over/underestimated in the past because like I've said, we don't know what changes to the party coalitions have happened, if any. If Latinos get a lot redder, I could see AZ/NV polling getting less accurate and more democratic biased but again we don't know how much they have shifted

[Person Man]

We don’t know if this is going to be a 2016 or 2012 situation.

[wbrocks67]

New GCB polls

Zogby - tied (40/40)

Big Village - D+6 (51/45) among LV, was D+4 (48/44) two weeks ago

Data for Progress - R+2 (47/45) among LV, was R+2 early September

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Wow Zogby still exists??

[Ferguson97]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We will find out in 4 weeks it's Halloween enjoy your Halloween and we will find out the results soon after